1. 4月24日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.47%，标普500指数期货跌0.31%，纳指期货跌0.26%。 杰富瑞：美股"高光"不再，后市或继续下挫。杰富瑞全球股票策略主管克里斯托弗·伍德(Christopher Wood)表示，美股早已过了"黄金时期"，投资者应做好 准备，迎接美股、美债以及美元的进一步下跌。伍德指出，美股市值在明晟全球指数(MSCI All Country World Index)中的占比在去年12月末达到历史最高水 平。他认为"美股已见顶"，并将其与1989年的日本股市相提并论，"美元已开启长期贬值趋势，这将降低美股市值在全球股市中的占比" 。伍德建议投资者 在重新平衡投资组合时，考虑增加对中国、印度和欧洲资产的配置。这位资深策略师对美国市场的悲观态度与弥漫在全球的悲观情绪相呼应。 哈马克发声：美联储应继续缩表，货币政策需保持稳定。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝•哈马克周三表示，当前形势仍然支持美联储继续缩减资产负债表。她还表 示，在巨大的不确定性之下，现在不是改变货币政策的时候。哈马克表示，在货币政策上"现在不是先发制人的好时机"，并补充说，现在是时候保持耐心 ...

Financial Performance - Total operating revenues for Q1 2025 were $12,551 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% compared to $12,570 million in Q1 2024[19] - Net loss for Q1 2025 was $473 million, compared to a net loss of $312 million in Q1 2024, representing a 51.8% increase in losses year-over-year[20] - Operating expenses increased to $12,821 million in Q1 2025, up 2.1% from $12,563 million in Q1 2024[19] - The company reported a basic and diluted loss per common share of $0.72 for Q1 2025, compared to $0.48 for Q1 2024[19] - The company reported a net periodic benefit income of $24 million for pension benefits in Q1 2025, compared to an income of $36 million in Q1 2024[57] - The company reported an operating loss of $268 million in Q1 2025, compared to an operating income of $13 million in Q1 2024[68] - The net loss for Q1 2025 was $384 million, compared to a net loss of $216 million in Q1 2024[70] - Pre-tax loss for Q1 2025 was $648 million, an increase of $235 million or 56.9% compared to Q1 2024[122] Revenue and Passenger Metrics - Total operating revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were $12,551 million, slightly down from $12,570 million in 2024, with total passenger revenue at $11,391 million compared to $11,458 million in 2024[36] - Total passenger revenue decreased to $11,391 million in Q1 2025 from $11,458 million in Q1 2024, a decline of 0.6%[84] - Passenger revenue decreased by $67 million, or 0.6%, to $11.391 billion in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, impacted by economic uncertainty and a fatal accident[143] - Atlantic passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) increased by 10.5% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024[124] - Pacific PRASM increased by 4.9% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024[124] - Total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) increased by 0.7% to 17.95 cents in Q1 2025 from 17.83 cents in Q1 2024[126] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash and restricted cash at the end of Q1 2025 totaled $931 million, an increase from $703 million at the end of Q1 2024[25] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $2,456 million in Q1 2025, compared to $2,180 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 12.6% increase[25] - Total available liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $10.8 billion, consisting of $7.5 billion in unrestricted cash and short-term investments[132] - AAG's net cash provided by operating activities increased to $2.5 billion in Q1 2025 from $2.2 billion in Q1 2024, a 12.5% increase driven by net working capital changes[167] - American's net cash provided by operating activities was $2.3 billion in Q1 2025, up from $2.2 billion in Q1 2024, reflecting a 9% increase[174] Debt and Liabilities - Total stockholders' deficit increased to $4,508 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $3,977 million at the end of 2024[23] - Long-term debt and finance leases, net of current maturities, decreased to $24,713 million as of March 31, 2025, from $25,154 million at the end of 2024[23] - The total carrying value of long-term debt, including current maturities, was $28.857 billion as of March 31, 2025, with a fair value of $28.538 billion[54] - As of March 31, 2025, American Airlines' total long-term debt was $24,439 million, a decrease from $25,372 million as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a reduction of approximately 3.7%[89] - The company prepaid $144 million of equipment notes and $308 million of senior secured notes in the first quarter of 2025, indicating proactive debt management strategies[93] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses increased to $12,817 million in Q1 2025 from $12,556 million in Q1 2024, primarily driven by higher salaries, wages, and benefits, which rose to $4,220 million from $3,865 million[68] - Salaries, wages, and benefits increased by $355 million or 9.2% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024[121] - Labor contract expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were $31 million, down from $57 million in 2024, reflecting a reduction in severance expenses and adjustments related to vacation accruals[32] - Total operating expenses rose by $258 million, or 2.1%, to $12.821 billion in Q1 2025 from $12.563 billion in Q1 2024[145] Legal and Regulatory Matters - The company is currently engaged in multiple legal proceedings, including antitrust actions related to the Northeast Alliance, which could have material financial impacts[66] Future Outlook and Risks - The company is considering capital raising and liability management activities due to significant financial commitments related to existing debt and new flight equipment[189] - The company does not currently have a foreign currency hedge program, exposing it to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, particularly with the Euro, Canadian dollar, and British pound sterling[195] - There have been no material changes in the company's risk factors as previously disclosed in its 2024 Form 10-K[203]

Financial Performance - American Airlines reported first-quarter 2025 revenue of $12.6 billion, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same quarter in 2024[2]. - The company experienced a GAAP net loss of $473 million, or ($0.72) per diluted share, representing a 51.6% increase in net loss year-over-year[4][15]. - Operating income reported a loss of $270 million, compared to a profit of $7 million in the same quarter last year[26]. - Net loss increased by 71.0% to $386 million from $226 million year-over-year[28]. - Total operating expenses increased to $12,821 million from $12,563 million, reflecting rising costs[28]. - Passenger revenue per available seat mile (RASM) increased by 0.3% to 16.30 cents from 16.25 cents[18]. - Total operating costs per available seat mile (CASM) increased to 18.34 cents from 17.82 cents, indicating rising operational costs[28]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Free cash flow generated in the first quarter was $1.7 billion, contributing to a total debt reduction of $1.2 billion, with total debt reduced by $16.6 billion from peak levels in 2021[6]. - Total available liquidity at the end of the quarter was $10.8 billion, including cash, short-term investments, and undrawn capacity under credit facilities[6]. - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q1 2025 was $2,456 million, an increase from $2,180 million in Q1 2024, representing a growth of approximately 12.6%[31]. - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was reported at $1,711 million, calculated as net cash provided by operating activities minus adjusted net cash used in investing activities[34]. - The company incurred $1,204 million in net cash used in investing activities for Q1 2025, a decrease from $1,516 million in Q1 2024[31]. Debt Management - The company aims to reduce total debt to less than $35 billion by year-end 2027, positioning its balance sheet for future challenges[6]. - Long-term debt and finance leases, net of current maturities, decreased to $24,713 million from $25,154 million, showing a reduction of about 1.8%[36]. Operational Metrics - Total revenue passenger miles decreased by 1.9% to 56,356 million compared to 57,473 million in the previous year[18]. - Passenger load factor declined by 0.9 percentage points to 80.6% from 81.5% year-over-year[18]. - Average aircraft fuel price decreased by 13.3% to $2.48 per gallon from $2.86 per gallon in the previous year[18]. - The airline's total operating expenses increased by 2.1% year-over-year, driven by higher salaries, wages, and benefits, which rose by 9.2%[15]. Customer Engagement and Future Plans - AAdvantage enrollments increased by 6% year-over-year, with spending on co-branded credit cards up 8% year-over-year, indicating strong loyalty program performance[3]. - The company expects second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per diluted share to be between $0.50 and $1.00, while withdrawing its full-year guidance due to economic uncertainty[7]. - American Airlines plans to offer complimentary high-speed satellite Wi-Fi for AAdvantage members starting January 2026, enhancing customer experience[5]. Asset and Liability Management - Total assets increased to $62,609 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $61,783 million at the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 1.3%[36]. - Cash and restricted cash at the end of Q1 2025 totaled $931 million, up from $703 million at the end of Q1 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase of about 32.4%[31]. - Current liabilities rose to $26,112 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $24,295 million at the end of 2024, marking an increase of approximately 7.5%[36]. - Total current assets increased to $13,603 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $13,154 million at the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.4%[36]. - The company’s accounts receivable, net, decreased to $1,928 million as of March 31, 2025, down from $2,006 million at the end of 2024, indicating a decline of about 3.9%[36].

Key Takeaways Several consumer-facing companies are on the reporting docket this week. CMG and SKX shares have plunged from highs following big runs. Guidance will be the key factor for each stock's post-earnings reaction. Earnings season has arrived, with this week’s reporting docket notably stacked. Among the bunch scheduled to report are several consumer-facing companies, including Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) , American Airlines (AAL) , and Skechers (SKX) .All three releases will give us a better grip ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is increasingly concerned about the economy's direction, leading to a sell-off of companies, particularly American Airlines, which is seen as vulnerable to a downturn [1][2]. Industry Overview - Airline stocks are cyclical, performing well in good times and declining when consumer confidence wanes, as households prioritize essential spending over vacations [2]. - Historical recessions have led to the failure of several airline brands, indicating the industry's vulnerability during economic downturns [2]. Company Analysis - American Airlines is currently healthier than some past failed brands but is more exposed than its peers if economic conditions worsen [3]. - The airline entered the pandemic with a higher debt load compared to rivals Delta and United, which may impact its recovery [3]. - American Airlines trades at an enterprise value of over 9 times its EBITDA, significantly higher than Delta's 6.9 times and United's 5.5 times, indicating a potential overvaluation [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite the overall health of the airline industry compared to previous downturns, American Airlines' efforts to catch up with competitors may be hindered if conditions deteriorate [5][6]. - Investors are cautious about American Airlines' stock ahead of its first-quarter results and outlook for 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that American Airlines will report a quarterly loss of $0.69 per share, reflecting a significant decline of 102.9% year over year, with revenues expected to reach $12.52 billion, a decrease of 0.4% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 27% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts forecast 'Revenue- Passenger' at $11.52 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 0.5% [5]. - 'Revenue- Other' is expected to reach $970.24 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.9% [5]. - 'Revenue- Cargo' is projected at $197.57 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 5.7% [5]. Passenger Revenue Breakdown - The consensus estimate for 'Passenger revenue- Domestic' is $8.43 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.1% [6]. - 'Passenger revenue- Latin America' is expected to be $1.78 billion, reflecting a decline of 6.4% year over year [6]. - 'Passenger revenue- Total International' is projected at $3.29 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [6]. - 'Passenger revenue- Pacific' is forecasted to reach $319.41 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.8% [7]. Operating Costs and Metrics - The estimated 'Operating cost per ASM excluding net special items and fuel - Total' is 14.58 cents, compared to 13.49 cents in the same quarter last year [7]. - The 'Operating cost per ASM excluding net special items - Total' is projected to be 18.37 cents, up from 17.72 cents year over year [8]. - The estimated 'Passenger load factor (percent) - Total' is 82.8%, compared to 81.5% in the same quarter of the previous year [8]. - 'Passenger revenue per ASM - Total' is expected to be 16.37 cents, slightly up from 16.25 cents year over year [9]. - 'Total revenue per ASM - Total' is projected to reach 17.99 cents, compared to 17.83 cents in the previous year [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, American Airlines shares have declined by 16%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has decreased by 6.9% [10]. - Based on its Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), American Airlines is expected to underperform the overall market in the upcoming period [10].

Core Viewpoint - American Airlines Group Inc. has nominated Kathryn (Katie) Farmer for election to its board of directors, highlighting her extensive leadership experience in the transportation industry [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination Details - The board of directors has nominated Kathryn Farmer for election at the annual meeting on June 11, 2025 [1]. - If elected, Farmer will serve on the Finance Committee and Safety Committee of the board [1]. Group 2: Candidate Background - Kathryn Farmer, 55, is currently the president and CEO of BNSF Railway, a position she has held since 2021 [2]. - She has over 30 years of experience with Burlington Northern, starting as a management trainee in 1992 [2]. - Farmer has held various senior leadership roles, including executive vice president and chief operations officer, overseeing BNSF's entire operations organization [3]. Group 3: Leadership Qualities - American Airlines' Chairman Greg Smith praised Farmer as a respected leader with significant and proven senior leadership experience [2]. - CEO Robert Isom emphasized her operational and marketing expertise, which will be valuable to American Airlines [3]. Group 4: Additional Involvement - Farmer serves on several boards, including the Association of American Railroads and Texas Christian University [4]. - She holds a Bachelor of Business Administration and a Master of Business Administration from Texas Christian University [4]. Group 5: Company Overview - American Airlines is a leading global airline, operating thousands of flights daily to over 350 destinations in more than 60 countries [5]. - The airline is a founding member of the oneworld alliance, which serves over 900 destinations worldwide [5].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for American Airlines due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on April 24, 2025, with a consensus estimate of a quarterly loss of $0.69 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -102.9% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $12.52 billion, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 26.38% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of deviation from the consensus estimate, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [7][8]. - American Airlines currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, American Airlines exceeded expectations with earnings of $0.86 per share against an estimate of $0.64, achieving a surprise of +34.38% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Conclusion - While American Airlines does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, other factors should also be considered when evaluating the stock ahead of the earnings release [16].

Core Viewpoint - American Airlines is expected to report a significant loss in Q1 2025, with a consensus estimate of a loss of 65 cents per share, which is a 91.2% decline compared to the previous year [1][5]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 revenues is $12.52 billion, reflecting a 0.4% decrease from the previous year [1]. - The company's Earnings ESP is -6.90%, indicating a likelihood of missing the earnings estimate [5]. - American Airlines has a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average beat of 37.1% [3]. Market Conditions - Domestic air travel demand has slowed due to tariff-induced economic uncertainties, impacting consumer and corporate confidence [7]. - Despite the slowdown in domestic travel, international passenger revenues are projected to increase by 3.3% year-over-year [7]. Cost Factors - Labor costs are anticipated to rise by 11.1% compared to Q1 2024, which may negatively affect the bottom line [8]. - High labor costs are a concern for the company, contributing to the expected unimpressive performance in Q1 [19]. Stock Performance - Airline stocks, including American Airlines, have seen significant declines in the January-March period, with American Airlines shares dropping by 39.5% [10]. - American Airlines is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.11X, which is lower than the industry average of 0.51X, indicating a cheaper valuation compared to peers [13]. Strategic Moves - The company is attempting to regain corporate clients by renegotiating contracts with travel agencies after a previous strategy led to a loss of clients [17]. - The airline's efforts to improve margins through contract renegotiations are ongoing, following a strategy that backfired last year [17]. Investment Outlook - Given the current economic uncertainties and low passenger revenues, particularly in the domestic market, it is advised that investors avoid purchasing American Airlines stock until more stability is observed [19].

Group 1 - Airline stocks have experienced significant declines in 2023, with American Airlines (AAL) down 42%, Delta Air Lines (DAL) down 31%, and United Airlines (UAL) down 30% year-to-date [1]