Core Insights - Affirm's fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report showed significant performance, with shares rising nearly 11% following the announcement [1] - The company reported revenue exceeding $876 million, reflecting a growth rate of just under 33%, surpassing consensus estimates of less than 27% [1] - Affirm achieved a non-adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 20 cents, nearly double the analyst consensus forecast of 11 cents, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive non-adjusted EPS [2] Financial Performance - Affirm posted its first quarter of positive non-adjusted operating income at $58 million, indicating a shift towards profitability alongside its high growth [3] - The fiscal Q1 revenue guidance suggests a deceleration in growth, with a midpoint revenue estimate of $870 million, indicating a growth rate of 24.5% [4] - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by nearly 44%, the highest rate in at least six quarters, with projections for at least 25% GMV growth in fiscal 2026 [5] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have raised their price targets for Affirm by 40% or more following the earnings report, with an average revised target nearing $97, indicating over 13% upside from the current trading price [8] - The updated targets suggest a shift in analyst sentiment from caution to optimism regarding Affirm's future performance [8] - Affirm's forward enterprise value to sales (EV/S) ratio stands at 8.6x, significantly higher than its average of around 5.8x over the past three years, necessitating continued profitable growth to justify this valuation [11]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has experienced significant stock volatility following its fiscal Q4 2025 results, initially rising 10.6% but later declining 3.6% due to competitive pressures from Klarna's upcoming U.S. IPO [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Affirm reported Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings of $0.20 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.11 and improving from a loss of $0.14 in the prior year [3] - Revenue increased by 33% year-over-year to $876.4 million, exceeding the consensus estimate by 4.4% [3] - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) reached $10.4 billion, a 43% increase from the previous year, and also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.5 billion [4] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Repeat customers accounted for 95% of transactions in Q4, indicating strong brand loyalty and predictable revenue streams [4] - The demand for 0% APR plans surged by 93% year-over-year, representing 14% of GMV, which is a significant growth driver [5] - Affirm is expanding its operations into Western Europe through a partnership with Shopify, starting with France, Germany, and the Netherlands, which is expected to unlock substantial growth potential [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates GMV for fiscal 2026 to exceed $46 billion, up from $36.7 billion in the prior year, with revenues projected to be 8.4% of GMV [7] - Adjusted operating margin is expected to rise to over 26.1% in fiscal 2026, compared to 24.1% in fiscal 2025 [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a 427% year-over-year increase to $0.79 per share, with fiscal 2027 earnings expected to grow nearly 78.7% [9] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Klarna's entry into the U.S. market and Walmart's switch from Affirm to Klarna highlight the intensifying competition in the BNPL space [18] - Affirm's long-term debt stood at $7.8 billion as of June 30, 2025, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 71.8%, significantly higher than the industry average of 13.7% [17] - Affirm's stock has increased by 40% year-to-date, outperforming major competitors like PayPal and Block, which have seen declines of 18.5% and 10.9%, respectively [11]

Group 1: Chime Financial, Inc. - Chime Financial, Inc. announced a strategic partnership with Workday to enhance financial wellness in the workplace [1] - Chime shares fell 1.7% to settle at $24.31 [6] Group 2: Affirm Holdings, Inc. - Affirm reported earnings of 20 cents per share, exceeding analyst expectations of 10 cents [2] - The company reported revenue of $876.4 million, surpassing estimates of $837 million [2] Group 3: PJT Partners Inc. - PJT Partners reported quarterly earnings of $1.54 per share, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $1.14 per share [3] - The company reported quarterly sales of $406.884 million, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $343.107 million [3] - Cramer expressed a lack of understanding regarding PJT Partners and recommended buying Goldman Sachs instead [2] Group 4: Eaton Corporation plc - Eaton posted better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter but issued soft guidance for third-quarter and fiscal year 2025 earnings per share [4] - Cramer described Eaton as a "terrific" stock [3] - Eaton shares fell 0.2% to settle at $342.99 [6]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is enhancing its 0% annual percentage rate (APR) monthly installment loan offerings to increase consumer spending and expand its presence in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market, positioning itself as a consumer-friendly alternative to traditional credit cards [1][8] Company Strategy - The company aims to convert first-time users into loyal customers by emphasizing affordability and value, which simplifies the checkout process for larger purchases [2] - Affirm earns fees from merchants for facilitating sales, particularly benefiting from higher fees associated with 0% APR financing products [2] Performance Metrics - In Q4 FY25, the gross merchandise volume (GMV) from 0% APR monthly installment loans increased by 93% year over year [3] - The visibility and accessibility of 0% APR offers on the Affirm Card led to a more than tripling of 0% APR GMV on the card compared to the previous year [3] - Spending in stores using the Affirm Card surged by 187% year over year in the same quarter, indicating strong consumer demand for interest-free installment options [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the BNPL space include PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Sezzle Inc. (SEZL), with PayPal reporting 438 million active accounts and a 5% year-over-year increase in net revenues in Q2 2025 [5] - Sezzle's GMV grew by 74.2% year over year in Q2 2025, with total transactions rising by 62.6% to 8.2 million and a repeat usage rate of 96.4% [6] Financial Overview - Year-to-date, AFRM's shares have increased by 35%, outperforming the industry average rise of 19.5% [7] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for AFRM is 6.52, above the industry average of 5.68, and it carries a Value Score of F [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a 400% growth from the previous year, with a revenue growth estimate of 19.6% year over year [10]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings has experienced a significant 40% year-to-date surge, raising questions about its current valuation and attractiveness as an investment opportunity [2] - Despite strong operational and financial performance, the company's current valuation appears high compared to historical averages and the broader market [3][10] Financial Performance - Affirm's revenues have grown substantially, with a 38.8% increase from $2.3 billion to $3.2 billion over the last 12 months, compared to a 5.1% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - The company has an average revenue growth rate of 34.3% over the last three years, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 5.3% [7] - Quarterly revenues increased by 33.0% to $876 million from $659 million year-over-year, while the S&P 500 saw a 6.1% improvement [7] Valuation Metrics - Affirm's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 9.0, compared to 3.3 for the S&P 500, indicating a higher valuation [7] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 48.1, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 21.4 [7] - The current valuation of 9.4 times trailing revenue is above its three-year average P/S ratio of 8.9, suggesting limited upside potential in the near term [10] Profitability and Financial Stability - Affirm's operating income over the last four quarters was $338 million, resulting in an operating margin of 10.5%, lower than the S&P 500's 18.6% [13] - The operating cash flow (OCF) was $794 million, yielding a high OCF margin of 24.6%, above the S&P 500's 20.2% [13] - The company's net income was $52 million, reflecting a net income margin of 1.6%, which is significantly lower than the S&P 500's 12.7% [13] - Affirm's debt stands at $7.9 billion, with a market capitalization of $29 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 27.1%, higher than the S&P 500's 20.3% [13] Downturn Resilience - Affirm's stock has shown weak resilience during downturns, having fallen 94.7% from a high of $168.52 in November 2021 to $8.91 in December 2022, compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [14] - The stock has not yet recovered to its pre-crisis high, with a recent peak of $88.46 on September 1, 2025 [14] Overall Assessment - Affirm is characterized by very strong growth, moderate profitability, strong financial stability, and weak downturn resilience, leading to an overall strong assessment [14]

格隆汇9月2日｜瑞穗证券将金融科技公司Affirm Holdings目标价从70美元上调至108美元。 ...

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is launching the Affirm Card, which combines features of traditional debit and credit cards, allowing users to pay upfront, in installments, or through personalized financing offers [1][4] - The card aims to attract modern consumers seeking control and flexibility in their spending, helping Affirm to transform one-time shoppers into repeat customers and strengthen merchant relationships [2][3] Financial Performance - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, Affirm reported a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $1.2 billion for the Affirm Card, a 132% increase year over year, with active cardholders rising 97% to 2.3 million [3][8] - In-store transactions using the Affirm Card increased by 187% year over year, indicating a growing preference for the card in everyday purchases [3][8] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like PayPal and Sezzle are also performing well, with PayPal reporting 438 million active accounts and net revenues of $8.3 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase [5] - Sezzle reported 2.9 million active consumers and total revenues of $98.7 million, growing 76.4% year over year [6] Valuation and Estimates - Affirm's shares have increased by 101.5% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 39.6% [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a 400% growth from the previous year, with a revenue growth estimate of 19.6% year over year [9] - Affirm currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.02, above the industry average of 5.71, indicating a lower value score [11]

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "neutral" rating on Affirm Holdings, citing strong performance in key metrics such as Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and Revenue as a Percentage of GMV (RLTC), despite potential risks [1][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Affirm's GMV is expected to grow over 26% in fiscal year 2026, a significant recovery from a decline of 38% in fiscal year 2025 [1] - The company's RLTC and adjusted operating income exceeded market expectations, indicating robust business performance [1] - The quarter saw a 93% year-over-year increase in 0% interest loans, driven by higher conversion rates observed by merchants [1] Group 2: Partnerships and Market Position - The top five merchant/platform partners contributed approximately 46% of GMV, with this segment growing by 41% year-over-year [1] - Affirm maintains strong partnerships with major e-commerce platforms and retailers, enhancing its market position [3] - The company is well-positioned in the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) sector due to its diversified and flexible business model [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a 12% slowdown in GMV growth guidance due to the termination of a partnership with a major client, which contributed about 5% of total GMV in the second half of 2024 [2] - Excluding the impact of this client loss, the slowdown in growth guidance would narrow to approximately 8% [2] - Affirm's RLTC is expected to remain around 4% in fiscal year 2026, supported by favorable credit loss provisions and funding costs [2] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The company faces concentration risk, with Amazon and Shopify accounting for over 35% of GMV [4] - Competition from larger BNPL service providers poses a threat to Affirm's market share [4] - High consumer credit risk exposure and elevated valuation levels necessitate sustained compound growth to support current valuation [4]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks Performance - BYD Electronics (00285) rose over 7%, reporting a nearly 14% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with positive progress in AI data center business [1] - Beihai Kangcheng-B (01228) surged over 11%, achieving profitability in the first half of the year and recently forming a strategic partnership with Baiyang Pharmaceutical [1] - MicroPort Medical (00853) increased over 11%, with a reported loss of $46.602 million for the first half of 2025, a 51.9% reduction in loss year-on-year [1] - Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) rose over 6%, reporting a net profit of HKD 22.12 billion for the first half of 2025, with an increase in net trading income year-on-year [1] - UBTECH (09880) increased over 4%, announcing a strategic partnership agreement worth $1 billion with international investment firm Infini Capital [1] - Gold stocks performed well, with China Silver Group (00815) up over 8%, Zhaojin Mining (01818) up over 7%, Shandong Gold (01787) up over 6%, Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) up over 6%, and Zijin Mining (02899) up over 6%, driven by rising gold prices due to increased interest rate cut expectations [1] Group 2: Chinese Companies' Financial Results - China Communications Construction (01800) fell over 5%, reporting a 16.9% year-on-year decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025 and not declaring an interim dividend [2] - Evergrande Property (06666) declined over 3%, with a 5.6% year-on-year drop in net profit for the first half of the year, with management expressing pessimism about economic benefits from Evergrande Group [2] - Zoomlion Heavy Industry (01157) rose over 2%, reporting a more than 20% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with institutions optimistic about export growth in the second half [2] - Midea Group (00300) increased over 2%, reporting a 25.04% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 and proposing an interim dividend of HKD 5 per 10 shares [2] Group 3: US Stocks Performance - Autodesk (ADSK.US) rose 9.09%, reporting a 17% year-on-year revenue increase for the second fiscal quarter and raising its full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance [3] - Gap (GAP.US) increased 1.52%, with revenue slightly below market expectations for the second fiscal quarter, and management indicated that tariffs may pressure annual gross margins [3] - Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) fell 18.60%, reporting record revenue of $2.01 billion for the second quarter, a 58% year-on-year increase, but provided a Q3 revenue guidance slightly below expectations [3] - Alibaba (BABA.US) surged 12.90%, with a market value increase of $36.7 billion overnight, reporting an 18% year-on-year decline in Non-GAAP net profit, but strong resilience in core business [3] - Ambarella (AMBA.US) rose 16.78%, providing strong guidance for Q3 revenue, expected to be between $100 million and $108 million, reflecting continued growth in edge AI demand [3] - IREN Ltd (IREN.US) increased 14.93%, exceeding expectations in its fourth-quarter earnings report and announcing a priority partnership with NVIDIA [3] Group 4: Other Notable Stocks - Dell Technologies (DELL.US) fell 8.88%, reporting that its infrastructure division's operating profit margin was below expectations [4] - Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US) rose 10.59%, reporting better-than-expected revenue and profit for the fourth fiscal quarter [4] - TryHard Holdings (THH.US) declined 9.80%, issuing 1.5 million shares at $4 each, at the lower end of the pricing range [5] - GrowHub (TGHL.US) increased 1.48%, issuing 3.8 million shares at $4 each, also at the lower end of the pre-set pricing range [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is positioned well in the rapidly growing Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) market, benefiting from a high coverage rate of US e-commerce sales [1] - The analyst has a background in financial media and aims to identify undervalued companies, leveraging experience in financial markets and institutions for thorough research and analysis [1]