Question-and-Answer SessionSo with that, Rob, let's jump right in and kind of start on the company's outlook for growth. You guys recently put out your '26 guidance with your fourth quarter report. So if you could just, from a high level, discuss the outlook for Q1 and the rest of '26 and give us some of the puts and takes that you're thinking about that may impact guidance.Robert O'HareChief Financial Officer Great. Of course, and thanks for hosting, Kyle. In terms of the guidance that we set, I think it's ...

记者丨刘雪莹 罗永浩回应网友喊话邀请俞敏洪、王自如 近日，罗永浩官宣播客节目《罗永浩的十字路口》，并在第一期邀请了理想汽车创始人李想。评论区， 有网友喊话罗永浩邀请俞敏洪、王自如上节目。罗永浩先后回复："已拉黑""也已拉黑"。 随后罗永浩还辟谣"拉黑俞敏洪王自如"称，只是把起哄的网友拉黑。 编辑丨陈思颖 8月26日午后，港股东方甄选跌近11%，成交额超20亿元。 据智通财经报道，高盛就东方甄选发布研报称，下调公司2026至2027财年GMV预测1%至3%，受益于自 营品牌产品GMV贡献提升，将收入预测上调最多10%，2026至2027财年经调整净利润率预测上调0.2% 和1%，目标价上调至9港元。因基本面持续疲软，加上估值较贵，该行维持沽售评级。 | 1 FEBRT FREEKS | 要会議:已拉爾维數以下自由 | | --- | --- | | | Sach直接的月26日消费, 最新机制度, OT | | 日本の原因的に行ける。 (0)年度は10000) | 永进的十零曲口 直文集团:"我们第一期修落 | | 和相关服务器价值得非值税处 | 可群上线图:24小时全网设组+角组织建设管 | | | 服は200 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the GMV forecast for Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797) for the fiscal years 2026 to 2027 by 1% to 3%, while increasing revenue forecasts by up to 10% due to the rising contribution of self-operated brand products [1] Group 1 - The adjusted net profit margin forecast for fiscal years 2026 to 2027 has been raised by 0.2 and 1 percentage points [1] - The target price for Dongfang Zhenxuan has been increased from 8 HKD to 9 HKD [1] - Despite the adjustments, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Sell" rating on Dongfang Zhenxuan due to weak fundamentals and high valuations [1] Group 2 - For the half-year ending May this year, Dongfang Zhenxuan reported mixed performance, with GMV declining by 55% year-on-year to 3.9 billion RMB, which is 15% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] - The company managed to exceed earnings expectations by controlling operating expenses, resulting in a net profit growth of 30% to 135 million RMB for the fiscal year 2025, excluding the one-time impact from the sale of "Yuhui Tong" [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **live e-commerce industry**, focusing on the **pet and health supplement sectors** and their performance from May to July 2025 [1][5][8]. Key Insights and Arguments Pet Industry - The pet industry had a small GMV share of 1.3% in May, 1.5% in June, and 1.1% in July 2025, but showed significant growth potential with major brands like **Mafudi**, **Fleegat**, and **Zhongchong** expected to exceed 50% growth in the first half of 2025 [1][4]. Health Supplement Industry - The health supplement sector experienced a **55% year-on-year growth** in Q2 2025, driven by relaxed platform policies that allowed new brands like **Wanyi Nan** and **Five Female Doctors** to gain traffic support [1][5][8]. - The platform's decision to ease restrictions was based on internal quality checks and the need to find new GMV growth points, as larger sectors like clothing and beauty had limited growth potential [8]. Brand GMV Share - Brand GMV share increased from approximately **62%-63%** at the beginning of the year to **69% in June** and **66% in July** 2025 [1][10]. Advertising Expenditure - E-commerce advertising expenditures for May, June, and July were **29.7 billion**, **31.2 billion**, and **25.6 billion** CNY respectively, with a stable ROI of around **2.5-2.7** [1][15]. Additional Important Content Platform Strategy - The platform's core business strategy focuses on content delivery, shelf scenarios, and brand support, prioritizing top brands for self-broadcasting and full shelf placement [2][16]. - The platform encourages mid-tier influencers to increase their broadcast frequency while reducing reliance on top-tier influencers to balance the ecosystem [19][20]. Brand Classification - Brands are classified into an S-level brand library based on their annual GMV and advertising budget contracts, with a minimum GMV requirement of **40 million** CNY [11][12]. ROI and Commission Policies - The ROI for merchants remained stable, with a slight increase in July compared to previous months. The commission policy has also seen an increase in rebate rates from **30% to 50%** compared to the previous year [15][26]. Market Dynamics - The platform aims to increase self-broadcast GMV from **63%** in 2025 to **70%-75%** in the next one to two years, indicating a strategic shift towards more cost-effective broadcasting methods [22]. New Brand Support Initiatives - New policies have been introduced to support new brands and white-label merchants, including cash rewards and resource packages to boost GMV growth in preparation for upcoming sales events [30]. Impact of Taxation - The potential impact of the advertising tax on platform and merchant operations remains uncertain, with significant implications depending on how influencer commissions are classified [37]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data from the conference call, highlighting the performance and strategic direction of the live e-commerce industry, particularly in the pet and health supplement sectors.

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Selection (01797) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 80% this month, with a current price of HKD 21.85 and a trading volume of HKD 1.147 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Daiwa reported that Oriental Selection's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year is expected to be RMB 4.8 billion, with the "With Hui Together" channel led by Dong Yuhui contributing a quarter of this total [1] - Following Dong Yuhui's departure, the GMV has rebounded due to the expansion of sales channels, indicating a recovery in performance [1] - The gross margin for self-branded products has improved to a healthy level of 21% in the first half of 2025, up from 10% in the second half of 2024, attributed to reduced discounts [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company has been reducing its workforce since December last year and expanding its product range to include high-margin categories such as health supplements and pet products, which is expected to further improve profit margins in the second half of 2025 [1] - Zheshang Securities noted that after two years of challenges, the company's operations are stabilizing, and GMV is expected to turn positive by June 2025 as the high base effect diminishes [1] - Oriental Selection continues to focus on developing major products, with GMV stabilizing and profit margins recovering, indicating significant growth potential for self-operated products [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the size of the China hotel industry, its growth history, penetration rates, and key players, along with an analysis of gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) trends [2][8] - The report discusses the competitive landscape, focusing on the top four hotel chains in China and their market dynamics [11][40] Market Size and Growth - The total number of hotels in China has grown significantly from 11,828 in 2005 to an estimated 348,717 in 2024, with branded hotels increasing from 864 to 93,289 in the same period [13] - The annual supply growth in China has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of 30% in 2020, followed by recovery trends in subsequent years [9] Top Players - The report identifies the top four hotel chains in China: Jin Jiang, H World, BTG, and Atour, detailing their market presence and operational metrics [40] - Jin Jiang leads with 12,348 domestic hotels and a revenue percentage from food and management (F&M) of 52% [40] GMV Analysis - The breakdown of China hotel GMV indicates that online travel agencies (OTAs) account for 27% of bookings, with Ctrip being the largest player at 15% [43] - The report emphasizes the importance of direct bookings, which constitute 18% of the total GMV [43] RevPAR Trends - RevPAR in China has shown volatility, with a significant decline observed during the pandemic, but is expected to recover as leisure demand increases [49][72] - The report notes that RevPAR for branded hotels has outperformed other segments, particularly in the midscale category post-reopening [87][91] Key Debates - The report raises critical questions regarding the future of RevPAR in the second half of 2025, the impact of supply growth on pricing, and the confidence of franchisees amid potential hotel closures [94] Valuation Framework - The valuation section provides a comparative analysis of market capitalization and earnings metrics for the top hotel chains, indicating varying levels of market performance and investor expectations [104]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the beauty and e-commerce industry in China, focusing on the performance of various platforms during the 2025 618 shopping festival, including 淘天集团 (Taotian Group), 京东 (JD.com), 抖音 (Douyin), and 拼多多 (Pinduoduo) [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Performance Metrics - 淘天集团's beauty segment exceeded expectations during the 618 shopping festival, with a GMV growth rate of 10.55% year-on-year, reaching 1,192.3 billion yuan, while the beauty segment specifically achieved a GMV of 98.4 billion yuan, growing 23.15% year-on-year [2][3]. - 京东's overall GMV target for the festival is approximately 2,500 billion yuan, with a growth target of 6.7% [3]. - 拼多多 aims for a GMV of 3,900 billion yuan with a target growth of 23% [3]. - 抖音's target GMV is around 4,800 billion yuan, with a growth target of 30% [3]. Strategic Collaborations and Market Trends - 淘天集团's collaboration with platforms like Tencent, Bilibili, and Xiaohongshu has attracted younger users and high-end consumers, leading to increased average transaction values and purchase frequency [1][4]. - The high-end luxury goods segment saw a sales increase of over 20% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending among the middle class and above [4]. - International beauty brands have a higher pre-sale position compared to domestic brands, benefiting from commission reductions [1][5]. Advertising and Cost Management - 淘天集团's customer management fee (CM2) growth rate reached 12%, indicating a decrease in advertising consumption monetization rates, which helps merchants reduce costs [1][3]. - The platform has shifted from a "full reduction" strategy to a "direct reduction" strategy to maintain merchant profit margins while ensuring over 20% growth throughout the shopping period [11]. Sales Performance of Brands - Brands like 珀莱雅 (Proya) and 兰蔻 (Lancôme) reported significant sales, with 珀莱雅 achieving 5.69 billion yuan (12.46% growth) and 兰蔻 reaching 5.39 billion yuan (25.05% growth) [12]. - 国货品牌 (domestic brands) like 可复美 (Cofume) saw a sales increase of 39.62%, reaching 4.51 billion yuan [12][26]. Competitive Landscape - The competition between international and domestic brands is intensifying, with international brands maintaining a conservative pricing strategy to avoid diluting brand value [5][20]. - Domestic brands are leveraging aggressive advertising and competitive pricing to capture market share, with brands like 薇诺娜 (Winona) maintaining good performance through value-for-money strategies [20]. Future Outlook - 淘天集团's annual GMV target is set at 7.8 billion yuan, with a focus on achieving higher growth in Q2 and Q4 [7]. - The DAU (Daily Active Users) target for the platform is 480 million, with an AAC (Average Active Customers) target of 10.4 to 10.9 billion [7]. Additional Important Insights - The shift in promotional strategies, such as the introduction of AI-driven smart coupons, aims to enhance user experience and improve return rates [11]. - The overall market performance has shown significant improvement, with high-end and luxury products outpacing fast-moving consumer goods [5][6]. - The collaboration with influencers like 李佳琦 (Li Jiaqi) continues to play a crucial role in driving sales for both domestic and international brands [12][26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and metrics from the conference call, highlighting the competitive dynamics and strategic initiatives within the beauty and e-commerce sectors during the 2025 shopping festival.

Core Insights - The article highlights that the "certainty" of JD's electronic products and the "potential" of instant retail have been underestimated [1][2] - JD's Q1 2025 financial report indicates a strategic shift in the e-commerce giant's approach, showcasing strong revenue growth and profitability [1][3] Financial Performance - JD reported total revenue of 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly three years [1][12] - Adjusted net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 43.4% [1] - The retail segment generated revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [12] Business Segments - Revenue from the 3C home appliance category grew by 17.1%, also a three-year high, contributing significantly to overall revenue [2][12] - New business initiatives, including instant retail, drove a 14.9% year-on-year growth in the supermarket segment [2] GMV Insights - Internal estimates suggest JD's actual GMV for 2024 is close to 4.5 trillion yuan, positioning it firmly within the top three e-commerce platforms [2][4] - The article discusses the controversy surrounding GMV rankings, with JD previously reported as fourth but internally believed to be third [4][6] Strategic Positioning - JD's business model of "self-operated + self-built logistics" has created significant barriers to entry and competitive advantages in the market [15][16] - The company has established a strong brand presence and user loyalty through its efficient delivery services and customer-centric policies [16][17] New Business Developments - The new business segment, including the food delivery service, generated 5.75 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year increase [19] - Despite increased losses in the new business segment, the overall impact on JD's profitability remains manageable, with strategic investments aimed at enhancing core business performance [20][22] Competitive Landscape - The article concludes that the competitive dynamics among the top three e-commerce platforms remain stable, with each platform carving out its niche [24][25] - Future competition will focus on JD's instant retail capabilities, Alibaba's AI initiatives, and Pinduoduo's overseas expansion efforts [25]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of Juyuan Qinchuan into Douyin E-commerce signifies a shift from a dual-track model to a unified approach, focusing on balancing advertising ROI, user experience, and platform efficiency [2][3][4]. Group 1: Structural Changes - Juyuan Qinchuan will be merged into Douyin E-commerce, becoming a secondary department and reporting to Douyin E-commerce head Wei Wenwen, instead of the previous commercial product and technology head Zhao Xiuying [3]. - The algorithm teams from both Juyuan Qinchuan and Douyin E-commerce will be consolidated, allowing for better synergy between advertising and natural traffic [4][5]. Group 2: Operational Implications - The merger indicates that Juyuan Qinchuan will now be responsible for overall goals related to GMV, merchant experience, and user experience, rather than just advertising revenue [3][4]. - The integration aims to enhance the efficiency of advertising cost reimbursement policies, which are crucial for reducing merchant operating costs and improving ROI [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - Douyin E-commerce aims to improve its settlement rate and reduce merchant operating costs as core business objectives for 2025, following the merger [6][7]. - The adjustment is seen as a response to the competitive landscape, with Douyin E-commerce's GMV reaching 3.5 trillion, but still lagging in settlement rates compared to industry leaders [6][7].