Core Viewpoint - Allstate's stock has shown resilience in the market, outperforming major indices despite a forecasted decline in earnings per share (EPS) for the upcoming quarter while revenue is expected to increase. Group 1: Stock Performance - Allstate's stock closed at $202, reflecting a +1.89% change from the previous trading day's close, outperforming the S&P 500, which fell by 0.91% [1] - Over the past month, Allstate shares gained 4.71%, contrasting with the Finance sector's loss of 5.01% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.38% [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Allstate is projected to report an EPS of $3.98, representing a 22.42% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $17.13 billion, indicating an 11.04% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Annual Estimates - For the entire year, earnings are forecasted at $18.62 per share and revenue at $69.64 billion, reflecting changes of +1.64% and +8.26% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates suggest a favorable outlook on Allstate's business health and profitability [4] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 1.01% downward over the past month, and Allstate currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - Allstate has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.65, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 11.47, indicating a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.08, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.68, suggesting a more favorable growth outlook relative to its valuation [7] Group 6: Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 34, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [7] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, indicating a strong competitive position for Allstate within its industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - Several insurance companies, including National General and Allstate, are facing a lawsuit from the New York State Attorney General for failing to protect consumer personal information and mishandling data breaches [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations and Breaches - The lawsuit alleges that National General failed to notify consumers about a data breach in 2021 and allowed a larger breach to occur in 2022 [2][5]. - The first data breach exposed the driver's license numbers of nearly 12,000 individuals, while the second breach compromised the driver's license numbers of an additional 187,000 consumers [5]. - National General is accused of not implementing reasonable data security measures before and after Allstate took over its data security operations [3][4]. Group 2: Company Responses - Allstate stated that they resolved the issue years ago by securing their systems after identifying vulnerabilities and notified regulators and affected consumers [4]. - The lawsuit seeks penalties and an injunction to prevent any continued violations of data security laws [5].

Core Viewpoint - Allstate's recent earnings report indicates strong performance driven by premium growth and investment income, despite facing challenges from elevated catastrophe losses and rising costs [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Allstate reported Q4 2024 adjusted net income of $7.67 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 17.8% and showing a nearly 32% year-over-year increase [2]. - Operating revenues for Q4 2024 reached $16.71 billion, a 12.1% increase year-over-year, although it slightly missed consensus estimates [2][4]. - For the full year 2024, operating revenues totaled $64.33 billion, up from $57.39 billion in 2023, and adjusted net income surged to $18.32 per share from $0.95 a year ago [4]. Premiums and Investment Income - Consolidated premiums written in Q4 2024 were $15.06 billion, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year improvement [5]. - Net investment income rose to $833 million, a 46.2% increase year-over-year, driven by repositioning into higher-yielding fixed-income securities [5]. Costs and Expenses - Total costs and expenses increased by 8.1% year-over-year to $14 billion, primarily due to higher property and casualty insurance claims [6]. - Catastrophe losses rose significantly to $410 million from $68 million a year ago [6]. Segment Performance - The Property-Liability segment's premiums earned increased by 10.6% year-over-year to $13.9 billion, although it fell short of estimates by 0.5% [8]. - The Protection Services segment saw revenues of $889 million, a 23.6% year-over-year increase, with adjusted net income rising to $50 million from $4 million [9]. - The Allstate Health and Benefits segment's premium and contract charges improved by 3.2% year-over-year to $482 million, but adjusted net income dropped by 41.7% [10][11]. Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, Allstate had a cash balance of $704 million and total assets of $111.6 billion, up from $103.4 billion a year earlier [12]. - Total equity increased to $21.4 billion from $17.6 billion at the end of 2024 [12]. - Book value per common share was $72.35, reflecting a 21.8% year-over-year increase [13]. Future Outlook - Allstate anticipates an increase in total Property-Liability policies in 2025 as auto insurance policy renewal rates improve [14]. - However, recent estimates have shown a downward trend, with a consensus estimate shift of -27.35% [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Allstate's stock has shown a positive return of +3.4% over the past month, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -4.1%, indicating potential resilience in its performance [1] Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the current quarter, Allstate is expected to report earnings of $4 per share, reflecting a decrease of -22% year-over-year, with the consensus estimate dropping by -23.6% in the last 30 days [4] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $18.65, indicating a slight increase of +1.8% from the previous year, with a minor change of -0.6% over the last month [4] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate is $21.61, suggesting a growth of +15.9% compared to the previous year, with a recent increase of +4.1% [5] Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $17.13 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of +11% [8] - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimate is $69.64 billion, indicating a growth of +8.3%, while the next fiscal year's estimate is $74.95 billion, reflecting a +7.6% change [8] Last Reported Results and Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Allstate achieved revenues of $16.71 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of +12.1%, with an EPS of $7.67 compared to $5.82 a year ago [9] - The reported revenues were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing a surprise of -0.01%, while the EPS surprise was +17.82% [10] - Allstate has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters and has topped revenue estimates three times during this period [10] Valuation - Allstate is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating that it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [14]

Core Insights - Ascentage Pharma's drug olverembatinib has received Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) from China's National Medical Products Administration for treating newly-diagnosed patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph+ ALL) in combination with low-intensity chemotherapy [1][2][3] Company Overview - Ascentage Pharma is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing therapies for unmet medical needs, particularly in hematological malignancies [10][11] - The company is listed on both the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, indicating its global presence and investment appeal [10] Drug Development and Approval - Olverembatinib is the first third-generation BCR-ABL inhibitor approved in China, with prior approvals for chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CML-CP) and gastrointestinal stromal tumors [5][12] - The drug has been included in the China National Reimbursement Drug List, enhancing its accessibility to patients [5][12] - A global Phase III study has been cleared for olverembatinib in combination with chemotherapy, positioning it to potentially be the first TKI approved for first-line treatment of Ph+ ALL in China [6] Clinical Significance - The incidence rate of ALL in China is approximately 0.69 per 100,000, with Ph+ ALL representing 20%-30% of adult cases, highlighting a significant unmet medical need [4] - Prior to TKIs, the five-year overall survival rate for Ph+ ALL patients treated with chemotherapy was below 20%, underscoring the importance of new treatment options [4] Regulatory and Market Impact - BTDs are granted to innovative drugs that address serious conditions with no existing treatment, allowing for prioritized development and review processes [3] - The recognition of olverembatinib's clinical value by regulatory authorities is expected to accelerate its development and availability to patients [7]

Group 1 - The conference call features Allstate's management team, including CFO Jess Merten, discussing the company's strategy and recent results [1][2] - Allstate aims to provide an overview of its strategy and performance to highlight its attractiveness as an investment opportunity [2][3] - The presentation will include forward-looking statements and reference non-GAAP measures, with additional information available on the company's investor website [2]

Financial Performance - Allstate's total revenue increased by 12.3% to $64.1 billion[7] - Net income reached $4.6 billion for the full year[7] - The adjusted net income return on equity was 26.8% in 2024[7] - Net investment income increased by 24.8% to $3.092 billion[8] Property-Liability Insurance - Property-Liability insurance premiums increased by 11.2% to $53.866 billion[8] - The Property-Liability combined ratio was 94.3, a decrease of 10.2 percentage points[10] - Auto insurance underwriting income was $1.81 billion[10] - Homeowners insurance underwriting income was $1.319 billion[10] Transformative Growth - The adjusted expense ratio decreased from 27.9 in 2019 to 23.1 in 2024[9] - Personal lines new issued applications increased from 5.5 million to 9.7 million through exclusive agent, independent agent and direct distribution[9] - Personal lines policies in force increased from 33.5 million to 37.3 million[9] Capital Management - $24.5 billion has been returned to shareholders since 2015, including $17.4 billion in share repurchases and $7.1 billion in dividends[21] - The company authorized a $1.5 billion share repurchase program[21] - The quarterly common shareholder dividend increased by 8.7%[21]

Core Insights - Basements have transformed into valuable living spaces but are prone to flooding, leading to significant repair costs, with 2024 marking a record year for weather-related losses in Canada exceeding $1 billion due to flooding [1][2] Group 1: Basement Usage and Flooding Risks - A Léger poll indicates that 80% of Canadians have a basement, with 10% experiencing flooding [2][6] - Water damage is a leading cause of home insurance claims, with repair costs for water-damaged basements increasing by nearly 20% from 2019 to 2024 [2][6] - Many homeowners utilize their basements for various purposes, including storage of expensive items, with 41% storing sports gear and 32% storing entertainment equipment [6][7] Group 2: Homeowner Preparedness and Recommendations - Homeowners are encouraged to take protective measures against flooding, especially as warmer months approach [3][4] - Recommendations include elevating expensive equipment, using waterproof storage solutions, and consulting professionals for landscaping to divert water [7][4] - The survey highlights that 61% of homeowners have running water in their basements, increasing the risk of water damage [2][6]

Core Insights - The Allstate Corporation has increased its quarterly dividend by 8.7% to $1 per share, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [1][2][3] - Allstate's current dividend yield stands at 2.12%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.26%, indicating confidence in its cash flow and future prospects [2] - The company has a history of consistent dividend growth, having raised its dividend five times in the past five years, which signals strong financial health [3] Dividend and Share Repurchase - The increased dividend will be paid on April 1, 2025, to shareholders of record as of March 10, 2025 [2] - Allstate has also announced a total of $29.3 million in dividends for preferred stock for the period from January 15 to April 14, 2025, payable on April 15 [5] - A new $1.5 billion share repurchase program has been approved, effective through September 30, 2026, following the expiration of a previous $5 billion buyback authorization [6] Strategic Focus and Growth Drivers - Allstate is focusing on its core strengths by divesting underperforming segments, including the sale of its Employer Voluntary Benefits and Group Health businesses for $2 billion and $1.25 billion, respectively [8] - The company aims to improve efficiency and profitability through cost-cutting measures and reinvestment in technology and product innovation [9] - Premium growth has been robust, with net premiums earned increasing by 13.9% in 2021, 8.7% in 2022, 10.4% in 2023, and 11.3% in 2024, showcasing the effectiveness of its growth strategy [10] Earnings Estimates and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allstate's adjusted earnings in 2025 is $18.74 per share, reflecting a 2.3% year-over-year growth, with further growth of 15% expected in 2026 [11] - The stock is currently trading at a forward earnings multiple of 9.82X, lower than its five-year median of 10.89X and the industry average of 29.16X, indicating it is attractively valued [12] Market Challenges - Allstate faces challenges from intense competition in the insurance market, which may affect its pricing strategy and customer retention [13] - As of December 31, 2024, Allstate's debt was $8.1 billion, with a cash balance of $704 million, leading to increased interest expenses and financial pressure [14] - Recent wildfires in Los Angeles have resulted in estimated pre-tax losses of approximately $1.1 billion for Allstate, highlighting the impact of external events on its financial performance [18]

Regulatory Environment - The Allstate Corporation's insurance subsidiaries are subject to capital requirements that could impact future dividends, but no immediate effects on current dividend plans are expected [75]. - The company operates under various state insurance regulations, requiring prior approval for any acquisition of 10% or more of its common stock in multiple states [80]. - Rate regulation across 22 locations mandates prior approval for rate changes, affecting the company's ability to respond to market conditions [88]. - The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 established a 15% corporate alternative minimum tax and a 1% excise tax on stock repurchases, impacting the company's financial strategies [94]. - The OECD's 15% Global Minimum Tax is expected to have a minimal impact on the company's operations, with compliance beginning on or after December 31, 2023 [96]. - The SEC's climate disclosure rule, if implemented, will require qualitative and quantitative disclosures related to climate risks and greenhouse gas emissions [97]. - California's Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act mandates phased reporting on greenhouse gas emissions, with regulations to be developed by July 1, 2025 [98]. - The company is involved in state-based indemnification programs, which may affect its financial obligations related to certain insurance coverages [88]. - The ability of subsidiaries to pay dividends is limited by state insurance regulatory authorities, which could adversely affect the holding company's liquidity and ability to meet obligations [175]. - Changes in regulatory and rating agency capital metrics could decrease deployable capital and potentially reduce future dividends paid by insurance companies [176]. - Regulatory environments may restrict necessary rate increases, impacting profitability and operational results [140]. - Legal and regulatory actions could materially affect the company's results of operations, cash flows, and financial condition, with ongoing litigation and inquiries posing significant risks [220]. - The company is subject to extensive regulations that may limit growth and profitability, with potential changes in the legal environment posing additional risks [213][219]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for 2024 increased to $64,106 million, up 12.3% from $57,094 million in 2023 [615]. - Net income attributable to Allstate for 2024 was $4,667 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $188 million in 2023 [617]. - Earnings per common share for 2024 was $17.22, compared to a loss of $1.20 per share in 2023 [615]. - Property and casualty insurance premiums rose to $56,388 million in 2024, an increase of 11.9% from $50,670 million in 2023 [615]. - Total costs and expenses for 2024 were $58,345 million, slightly up from $57,442 million in 2023 [615]. - The company reported net investment income of $3,092 million in 2024, up from $2,478 million in 2023 [615]. - Comprehensive income attributable to Allstate for 2024 was $4,468 million, compared to $1,494 million in 2023 [617]. - Total assets increased to $111,617 million in 2024, up from $103,362 million in 2023 [622]. - Total liabilities rose to $90,250 million in 2024, compared to $85,732 million in 2023 [622]. - Total Allstate shareholders' equity increased to $21,442 million in 2024, up from $17,770 million in 2023 [622]. - Net income for 2024 was $4,599 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $213 million in 2023 and $1,342 million in 2022 [627]. - Net cash provided by operating activities increased to $8,931 million in 2024, compared to $4,228 million in 2023 [627]. - The group health business generated $481 million in premiums and contract charges with an adjusted net income of $71 million for the year ended December 31, 2024 [640]. - Cash at the end of the period was $704 million, down from $722 million at the beginning of the period [627]. - Net cash used in investing activities was $(8,252) million in 2024, compared to $(2,999) million in 2023 [627]. - Proceeds from the issuance of debt amounted to $495 million in 2024, while redemption and repayment of debt totaled $(350) million [627]. - The company reported a decrease in dividends paid on common stock to $(962) million in 2024 from $(925) million in 2023 [627]. Employee Engagement and Culture - Allstate's organizational culture emphasizes employee development and aligns with its goal to become the lowest cost protection provider [108]. - As of December 31, 2024, Allstate had approximately 55,000 full-time employees and 400 part-time employees [109]. - In 2024, Allstate sustained a voluntary turnover rate of 13% and maintained employee engagement scores with 84% of employees expressing a favorable view [113]. - Allstate spent $58 million on employee engagement activities, including in-person and virtual events [114]. - Over 35% of open U.S. positions were filled with internal applicants in 2024 [113]. - Allstate's Employee Impact Groups (EIGs) showed a 28% lower turnover rate among members compared to non-members, with 14% of the U.S. workforce participating [115]. - The company provided financial assistance to over 2,000 U.S. employees for educational programs in 2024 [113]. - Allstate launched an early career enrichment experience to support the development of early career talent [113]. - The organization focuses on skills-based hiring by eliminating degree requirements for certain positions [117]. - Allstate's well-being strategy includes assessments to tailor support programs based on employee needs [114]. - The company emphasizes a culture of well-being, offering paid leave for family care from the day employees join [114]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the personal property-liability market is intense, with pricing pressures affecting growth and profitability [139]. - Changes in consumer preferences and technological advancements could disrupt demand for auto insurance, a significant portion of the company's business [165]. - The company must continually adapt to competitive pressures and changing consumer needs to maintain market position and customer retention [158]. - The deployment of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, is critical for maintaining competitive advantage, but presents regulatory and ethical challenges [166]. - The Transformative Growth strategy aims to accelerate growth by enhancing customer value, expanding access, and investing in customer acquisition through a new technology ecosystem [171]. - The company is developing new insurance and non-insurance products to provide affordable and connected protection, with potential impacts on growth and profitability if not implemented effectively [172]. - Catastrophe risk management actions have led to a reduction in the homeowners business in certain states, which may negatively impact future premium growth rates [173]. - The company faces intense competition for qualified employees, particularly in specialized areas such as data and analytics, which could impact staffing levels and work culture [190]. - Global economic conditions, including low or negative growth and rising inflation, could adversely affect demand for products and overall results of operations [192]. Risk Management - The company faces significant risks from catastrophic events, which could lead to extraordinary losses and impact liquidity [135]. - Catastrophic losses are influenced by severe weather events, with potential increases in claims severity due to inflation and other external factors [136]. - Insufficient reinsurance capacity or high costs may limit the company's ability to profitably write business, impacting overall financial performance [179]. - Participation in indemnification programs poses risks related to reimbursement for claims, particularly with state-mandated mechanisms like the Michigan Catastrophic Claim Association [153]. - Cybersecurity risks, including data breaches and unauthorized access, pose significant threats to the company's operations and reputation, potentially leading to financial losses [200]. - The company faces risks from climate change, which may increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, potentially impacting financial condition and profitability [205]. - The company is unable to predict the specific impact of climate change on its business due to significant variability in future conditions [207]. - The investment portfolio is subject to valuation risks due to economic shifts caused by climate change, impacting long-term investment returns [206]. - The company may face challenges in meeting evolving environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards, which could affect stakeholder relationships and business practices [208][209]. - The company has implemented a robust Information Security Program aligned with industry best practices to manage cybersecurity risks [231]. - The company conducts regular risk assessments and control effectiveness tests to proactively identify and mitigate cybersecurity threats [234][235]. - The company has a cybersecurity resiliency strategy to enhance its ability to recover from attacks and maintain critical business operations [236].