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AppLovin Shares Jump as Revenue Continues to Surge. Is It Too Late to Buy the Stock?
The Motley Fool· 2025-08-11 08:15
Core Insights - AppLovin's stock has increased over 500% in the past year and over 30% year-to-date, demonstrating strong market performance [1] - The company has consistently shown significant revenue and profitability growth, despite scrutiny from short-sellers regarding its AI adtech platform [2] Financial Performance - In Q2, AppLovin's revenue surged by 77% to $1.26 billion, with gross margins improving to 87.7% from 82.9% year-over-year [4][5] - Earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations rose from $0.89 to $2.39, while adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $1 billion [6] - The company generated $772 million in operating cash flow and $768 million in free cash flow, reducing net debt from $3.2 billion to $2.3 billion [6] Business Strategy - AppLovin has transitioned to a pure-play adtech company after selling its legacy app business, with the majority of revenue growth coming from its core gaming ad business [4][7] - The company is launching a self-service platform aimed at automating ad generation and giving advertisers more control, with a referral-based opening in October and a global launch planned for the first half of 2026 [8] Market Expansion - AppLovin plans to open its platform to advertisers outside the U.S. for the first time in October, as most of its user audience is international [9] - The company intends to implement a paid marketing campaign next year to attract new advertisers, moving beyond its historical reliance on word-of-mouth growth [9] Future Outlook - For Q3, AppLovin forecasts revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.34 billion, indicating a growth of around 59%, with projected adjusted EBITDA between $1.07 billion and $1.09 billion [10] - The company expects to maintain a revenue growth rate of 20% to 30% annually from gaming, while also exploring expansion opportunities beyond its core market [10] Valuation - Despite a significant stock price increase, AppLovin's stock is considered reasonably priced, trading at a forward P/E ratio of about 40.5 times 2026 analyst estimates and a one-year forward PEG ratio of just 1 [11] - The upcoming year, particularly 2026, is anticipated to be pivotal for the company due to its global platform expansion and self-serve platform launch [12]
Applovin(APP.US)绩后股价大涨 华尔街分析师纷纷点赞
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 08:00
Core Viewpoint - Applovin reported better-than-expected Q2 results and guidance, leading to a 12% increase in stock price to $437.34, with multiple Wall Street analysts expressing optimism about the stock [1] Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Oppenheimer reiterated a "Outperform" rating for Applovin with a target price of $500, highlighting management's confidence in e-commerce advertising exceeding 10% this year due to the upcoming broader launch of the AXON ad manager [1] - Bank of America maintained a "Buy" rating with a target price of $580, raising revenue expectations for Q4 2025 and 2026 from $1.65 billion/$8.1 billion to $1.69 billion/$10 billion, citing factors such as a new large advertiser referral program and increased average spending per advertiser [1] - Benchmark Equity Research also upheld a "Buy" rating with a target price of $525 [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Analysts noted that Applovin has a solid foundation for sustained revenue and margin growth due to increased advertiser confidence, performance boosts from Axon, and geographic expansion [2]
AppLovin's Q2 Miss Spooks Market, But Wall Street Doubles Down
MarketBeat· 2025-08-07 21:07
Core Viewpoint - AppLovin has experienced significant stock price volatility following its Q2 2025 earnings release, with a notable initial drop of 13% in after-hours trading, which later stabilized and even rebounded by over 10% the following day as investors reassessed the results and management's commentary [2][12]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, AppLovin reported revenues of approximately $1.26 billion, reflecting a 77% increase compared to Q2 2024, although this figure was below Wall Street's expectation of $1.37 billion [4]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $2.26, exceeding the estimate of $2.05 and representing a substantial 163% increase year-over-year [5]. - The company achieved an EBITDA margin of 81%, a significant improvement from 67.7% in Q1 2025, following the sale of its Apps business [5][6]. - AppLovin's free cash flow margin was just under 61%, with a last-12-months free cash flow margin of 66%, the highest among large-cap U.S. software stocks [6]. E-Commerce Strategy - AppLovin is focusing on expanding into the e-commerce market, reporting an annual run rate of $1 billion with around 600 customers [7]. - The company has intentionally limited the onboarding of new advertisers in e-commerce to enhance product quality, with plans to resume onboarding on October 1, 2025, requiring referrals from existing customers [8][10]. - AppLovin is currently less than 1% penetrated in the e-commerce sector, indicating substantial growth potential [11]. Analyst Outlook - Analysts have raised their price targets for AppLovin, with Morgan Stanley and Piper Sandler setting targets at $480 and $500, respectively, suggesting significant upside potential [13]. - Despite the mixed Q2 results, analysts remain optimistic about AppLovin's future, particularly regarding its e-commerce initiatives [12].
Buy the Spike in AppLovin Stock after Q2 earnings?
ZACKS· 2025-08-07 21:01
Core Viewpoint - AppLovin has demonstrated significant growth and strong performance in Q2, leading to a notable increase in stock price and investor interest [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 sales increased by 16% year over year to $1.25 billion, surpassing estimates of $1.21 billion by 4% [2]. - Q2 earnings per share (EPS) rose 154% from $0.89 to $2.26, exceeding EPS expectations of $1.99 by 13% [3]. - AppLovin has achieved over $1 billion in sales for six consecutive quarters [2]. Future Guidance - For Q3, AppLovin expects sales between $1.32 billion and $1.34 billion, above the Zacks Consensus of $1.31 billion, indicating a 9% growth [4]. - The company forecasts Q3 adjusted EBITDA at $1.07 billion to $1.09 billion, maintaining an 81% margin [4]. Market Position and Valuation - AppLovin's stock has surged nearly 1000% over the last three years, with a recent spike of +16% in trading [1]. - The stock currently trades at 46.5X forward earnings, compared to the S&P 500's 24.2X and the industry average of 21X [9]. - In terms of price-to-forward-sales, AppLovin trades at a high premium of 24.8X against the S&P 500's 5.4X and the industry average of 2.1X [9]. Technical Analysis - AppLovin's stock has recently surpassed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $365, indicating short-term strength [8]. - The stock remains above its 200-day SMA of $331, which may present a buying opportunity for investors [8]. Investment Outlook - AppLovin holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting potential for continued growth, but future upside may depend on positive earnings estimate revisions following the favorable Q2 report [13].
AppLovin CEO sees benefits from Apple-Epic fallout as stock pops on earnings
CNBC· 2025-08-07 19:22
Core Viewpoint - AppLovin's stock has experienced a significant rally following better-than-expected earnings for Q2, driven by growth from artificial intelligence technology in mobile advertising [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - AppLovin shares surged 11% after the earnings report and are up 34% year-to-date, having increased more than eightfold in 2024 [1] - The company is benefiting from advancements in AI technology that enhance advertisers' targeting capabilities in mobile games [1] Group 2: Legal Context - CEO Adam Foroughi indicated potential for further growth linked to the ongoing legal issues between Apple and Epic Games, which may impact the advertising landscape [2] - A recent ruling found that Apple violated a previous court order, necessitating changes to its linking out policy under California law [2] - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied Apple's emergency application to halt changes to its App Store, further complicating the situation for Apple [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Foroughi noted that gaming companies have not yet altered their user acquisition spending in response to the Epic case, suggesting that any significant changes may take longer than anticipated, with benefits expected in four to eight quarters [4]
These Analysts Increase Their Forecasts On AppLovin After Strong Q2 Earnings
Benzinga· 2025-08-07 18:09
Core Insights - AppLovin Corp (APP) reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations for earnings per share but fell short on revenue [1] - The company's shares experienced a significant increase of 13.2% following the earnings announcement [1] Financial Performance - Second-quarter revenue was reported at $1.26 billion, which was below the analyst estimates of $1.31 billion [1] - Earnings per share for the second quarter were $2.39, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.04 [1] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Piper Sandler analyst James Callahan maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $470 to $500 [6] - Wells Fargo analyst Alec Brondolo also maintained an Overweight rating, increasing the price target from $405 to $480 [6] - Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost kept the stock at Overweight and raised the price target from $460 to $480 [6] - Scotiabank analyst Nat Schindler maintained a Sector Outperform rating and increased the price target from $430 to $450 [6]
Applovin Analysts See 'Muted Upside,' Cautious On Company's Success Outside Of Gaming
Benzinga· 2025-08-07 15:46
Core Insights - Applovin Corporation reported strong second-quarter results, driven primarily by its gaming segment, with analysts focusing on future growth in eCommerce [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - Bank of America described the second-quarter results as "okay," with a revenue growth of 9% sequentially, surpassing the 3-5% guidance [3][5]. - JPMorgan noted that the third-quarter guidance exceeded analyst expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the company [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts anticipate "muted upside" for the third quarter, but expect potential estimate revisions for the fourth quarter and the next fiscal year due to the upcoming self-serve platform launch [4][5]. - Applovin plans to launch its self-serve platform for referrals on October 1, with a global rollout expected in the first half of fiscal 2026 [5][6]. Market Strategy - The self-serve platform will allow advertisers to buy outside the U.S. for the first time, and the company plans to utilize paid marketing to attract new advertisers post-launch [6][7]. - Analysts are monitoring the scaling of Applovin's platform in relation to the broader advertising shift towards AI enablement [8]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Bank of America maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $580, while JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs maintained Neutral ratings, raising their price targets to $425 and $445, respectively [8]. Stock Performance - Applovin's stock increased by 13.0% to $441.48, with a year-to-date rise of 36.7% in 2025 [9].
美股异动|AppLovin一度涨超16%创今年2月以来新高 Q2业绩超预期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-07 15:27
Core Viewpoint - AppLovin's stock surged over 16%, reaching a new high of $453.76 since February, driven by strong Q2 financial results [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $1.259 billion, a 77% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [1] - Net profit soared to $820 million, marking a 164% year-over-year growth [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was $1.018 billion, reflecting a 99% year-over-year increase [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.39, surpassing the market expectation of $2.32 [1]
美股异动 | Q2业绩超预期 Applovin(APP.US)涨超13%
智通财经网· 2025-08-07 15:09
Core Insights - Applovin's stock price increased over 13%, reaching $441.58 as of the report [1] - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.39, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $2.32 [1] - Under GAAP, Applovin's earnings per share were $2.28, also exceeding the average forecast of $1.98 [1] - The net profit for the second quarter reached $820 million, marking a significant increase of 164% [1] - Total revenue for the second quarter was $1.26 billion, exceeding the expected $1.22 billion and reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17% [1] - Excluding the sold gaming business, Applovin's overall sales increased by 77% due to strong advertising performance [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $1.018 billion, showing a substantial year-over-year growth of 99% [1]
Q2业绩超预期 Applovin(APP.US)涨超13%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 15:08
Core Viewpoint - Applovin's stock price surged over 13% following the release of its strong quarterly earnings report, indicating robust performance in the digital advertising sector [1] Financial Performance - For the quarter ending June 30, Applovin reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.39, surpassing Wall Street's average expectation of $2.32 [1] - The GAAP earnings per share was $2.28, also exceeding the Wall Street average estimate of $1.98 [1] - The company's net profit under GAAP reached $820 million, marking a significant increase of 164% [1] - Total revenue for the second quarter amounted to $1.26 billion, exceeding the average Wall Street expectation of approximately $1.22 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [1] - Excluding the already sold gaming business, Applovin's overall sales saw a substantial year-over-year increase of 77% driven by strong advertising business [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $1.018 billion, reflecting a remarkable year-over-year growth of 99% [1]