Core Viewpoint - As of May 12, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, with 78% exceeding EPS expectations, slightly above the 5-year average of 77% and the 10-year average of 75% [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The actual earnings exceeded expectations by an average of 8.5%, which is lower than the 5-year average of 8.8% but higher than the 10-year average of 6.9% [1] - Companies that reported better-than-expected EPS saw an average stock price increase of 1.9% in the two days before and after the earnings release, surpassing the 5-year average increase of 1.0% [3] - Microsoft reported an actual EPS of $3.46, exceeding the expected $3.22, leading to an 11.3% stock price increase from $391.16 to $435.28 between April 28 and May 2 [3] Group 2: Underperformance Impact - Companies that reported EPS below expectations experienced an average stock price decline of 1.7%, which is less than the 5-year average decline of 2.3% [4] - Caterpillar reported an actual EPS of $4.25, below the expected $4.35, yet its stock price increased by 5.4% from $307.06 to $323.68 during the same period [5] Group 3: Future Expectations - The stronger positive returns for companies with better-than-expected EPS may be attributed to optimistic Q2 EPS forecasts, with 45% of companies providing positive EPS guidance, higher than the 5-year average of 43% and the 10-year average of 38% [5] - Despite the optimistic outlook for Q2, analysts have reduced EPS expectations for S&P 500 companies more than the average in the first month of the quarter [5]

Core Insights - The second quarter of 2025 saw 30% of companies tracked by Wall Street Horizon announcing shareholder-payout increases, marking the best Q2 performance since 2021, while only 9% of companies cut their dividends, the lowest rate in three years [1][5]. Dividend Trends - The healthy dividend-hike rate in Q2 indicates strong corporate performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties, suggesting a positive outlook for the remainder of 2025 [2][5]. - Companies are continuing to generate profits, repurchase shares, and increase dividends, which signals a bullish sentiment among corporate leaders [3][5]. Price Adjustments - Investment teams need to adjust stock prices to reflect increased dividend payouts accurately, with North America recording 17,509 price adjustments in the first half of 2025, on track to surpass the previous year's record [4][6]. Company-Specific Developments - Caterpillar announced a 7% dividend increase, raising its quarterly distribution to $1.51, despite facing challenges such as potential higher tariffs [8]. - UnitedHealth Group increased its quarterly dividend by 5.2% to $2.21, providing some relief to shareholders amid significant stock price declines and operational challenges [15]. Market Outlook - The macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain with ongoing geopolitical tensions and domestic economic concerns, yet the high percentage of companies increasing dividends suggests underlying corporate optimism [19].

Core Insights - The industrial sector has shown resilience in 2025, with two major companies increasing their dividends and another likely to follow suit [1][2] Group 1: Sector Performance - As of June 20, the S&P 500 industrials sector is the best-performing sector, with a total return of approximately 8.4%, outperforming utilities by around 1% [2] - In contrast, the overall S&P 500 has a total return of less than 2% [2] Group 2: Dividend Increases - Delta Air Lines (DAL) announced a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.1875 per share, resulting in an annual dividend of $0.75 and a yield of nearly 1.6% [5][6] - Caterpillar (CAT) raised its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.51 per share, marking 31 consecutive years of dividend increases, with an expected annual payout of $6.04 and a yield of just under 1.7% [9][10] - Airbus Group has not officially declared a dividend increase but has raised its payout ratio range to 50%, suggesting potential future increases [12][13][14] Group 3: Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - Delta Air Lines is the most valuable stock in the passenger airlines industry, with a market capitalization of approximately $31 billion [5] - Caterpillar is valued at around $170 billion, making it the most valuable U.S. stock in the machinery industry [9] - Airbus is one of the world's five largest stocks in the aerospace and defense industry, indicating its significant market position [12]

All right, let's do calls of the day. Caterpillar target to 414 from 396. Truis reiterates that as a buy.Weiss, you own the stock. Yeah, again for me it's a hedge against a heavy heavy tech portfolio and growth portfolio. Uh we got some good news today on the nuclear plant that's uh going to be built in New York if they get approvals.So obviously that'll help Caterpillar. So I I think that with the reshoring on of America, which has been going on now for a number of years, it'll help them quite a bit. They' ...

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. is increasingly depending on its Energy & Transportation (E&T) segment to mitigate the effects of ongoing weakness in its Construction Industries and Resource Industries segments [1] Group 1: E&T Segment Performance - The E&T segment generated $28.8 billion in revenues in 2024, representing 47% of Caterpillar's total revenues, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% from 2021 to 2024 [2][12] - Operating margins for the E&T segment have improved from 18.7% in Q3 2022 to 24.3% in Q1 2025, helping to offset declines in the other segments [3][12] - Projections indicate that the E&T segment's operating margin will reach 24.8% in 2025, with operating profit expected to be $6.02 billion, a 5.1% increase year-over-year [4] Group 2: Future Growth Expectations - E&T segment sales are forecasted to grow by 1% to $29.2 billion in 2025, while the Construction Industries and Resource Industries segments are expected to decline by 6.4% and 3.7%, respectively [5] - Over the 2024–2027 period, the E&T segment is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 2.5%, outperforming the Construction Industries' projected 0.6% and Resource Industries' 2.1% growth [5] Group 3: Market Drivers - Key growth drivers for the E&T segment include sustainability initiatives in the Oil and Gas sector, which accounts for 29% of segment sales, and increasing demand from data centers supporting generative AI, which is expected to boost Power Generation sales (32% of segment sales) [6] - The transportation sector is also expected to see sales improvements due to increased rail services, while growth in marine and industrial sectors will further enhance the segment's performance [7] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Caterpillar's E&T segment competes with Cummins Inc.'s Power Systems segment and GE Vernova Inc.'s Power segment [8] - Cummins' Power Systems segment contributed 16% of its total sales in 2024, with a 13% increase to $6.4 billion year-over-year [9] - GE Vernova's Power segment generated $18 billion in fiscal 2024, marking a 4% increase year-over-year, with expectations for mid-single-digit organic revenue growth in 2025 [10][11]

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. will host its 2025 Investor Day on November 4, 2025, in the Dallas area, where CEO Joe Creed and the executive leadership team will discuss strategic priorities and growth opportunities for the next century [1] Company Overview - Caterpillar Inc. reported sales and revenues of $64.8 billion for 2024, making it the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives [3] - The company operates on every continent through three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Energy & Transportation, while also providing financing and related services through its Financial Products segment [3] - Caterpillar is committed to contributing to a reduced-carbon future and has been helping customers build a more sustainable world for 100 years [3]

Group 1 - Global companies are showing optimism despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with a notable positive differential of 21 percentage points between dividend raisers and slashing companies, marking the best Q2 performance in several years [1]

Company Performance - Caterpillar (CAT) closed at $357.68, down 1.31% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.84% [1] - Over the past month, Caterpillar's shares have appreciated by 2.51%, outperforming the Industrial Products sector's flat performance and the S&P 500's gain of 1.44% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming EPS for Caterpillar is projected at $4.89, indicating an 18.36% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Quarterly revenue is expected to be $16.42 billion, down 1.59% from the previous year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, earnings are anticipated at $18.7 per share and revenue at $63.25 billion, reflecting declines of 14.61% and 2.41% respectively from last year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts are important as they indicate evolving short-term business trends [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks Caterpillar at 3 (Hold) [5] - Caterpillar has a Forward P/E ratio of 19.38, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 15.1 [6] Industry Context - The Manufacturing - Construction and Mining industry, part of the Industrial Products sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 193, placing it in the bottom 22% of over 250 industries [8] - The average PEG ratio for Caterpillar is 2.41, while the industry average is 4.93 [7]

Core Viewpoint - BofA Securities analyst maintains a Buy Rating on Caterpillar, Inc. with a price target of $385, highlighting the potential of the Energy & Transportation segment as a key driver for future earnings growth [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance and Projections - Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation (E&T) segment contributes approximately 40% of total sales, making it the least understood segment within the company [1] - The E&T segment is expected to lead the next earnings upcycle, driven by long-term growth in data centers, power generation, and pipeline expansions through 2030 [2] - Caterpillar is guiding for $2.5 billion in earnings by 2025, a significant increase from the average of $1.2 billion over the last decade, indicating a notable inflection point [2] - Projected revenue for 2025 is $59.3 billion with earnings per share estimated at $17.50 [3] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Management Strategy - Since 2017, capital expenditures (capex) to sales and capex to depreciation have averaged 2% and 70%, respectively, with the current capex step-up significantly exceeding these averages [3] - The management team, under new CEO Joseph Creed, continues to focus on improving returns and free cash flow generation [2][3] - Management is investing in capex for the first time in a decade to expand large engine capacity to meet the rising demand in power generation and data centers [4] Group 3: Historical Context and Market Dynamics - The EPS upcycle from 2009-2012 was primarily driven by Resource Industries, while the current upcycle from 2020-2023 is significantly supported by Construction Industries [4] - E&T's contribution to operating profit has increased to 40% from 33% two years ago, despite cyclical pressures affecting Construction and Resources [4] - E&T pricing remains positive, contrasting with negative pricing in core segments, indicating resilience and growth potential within this segment [4]

Core Insights - Caterpillar (CAT) has announced a 7% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.51 per share, marking the 31st consecutive year of dividend increases, demonstrating resilience amid near-term challenges [1][3][11] Dividend Performance - The annualized dividend of $6.04 results in a yield of 1.69%, which exceeds the manufacturing - construction and mining industry's yield of 1.58%, the sector's yield of 1.47%, and the S&P 500's yield of 1.24% [2] - Caterpillar's payout ratio stands at 26.91%, higher than the industry's 23.61% [2] Financial Context - The dividend increase follows a weaker-than-expected first-quarter 2025 performance, with declines in both revenues and earnings due to softer volumes [3] - Despite the challenges, the increase reflects management's confidence in the company's long-term cash-generating capacity [3][7] Historical Dividend Trends - Caterpillar has consistently paid cash dividends since its formation and has been a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index since 2019 [4] - Over the past five years, the company's dividend has grown at approximately 8%, supported by nearly doubling its free cash flow [5] Shareholder Returns - In 2024, Caterpillar returned around $10.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with an additional $4.3 billion returned in the first quarter of 2025 [5][11] - The company aims to return substantially all Machinery, Energy & Transportation (ME&T) free cash flow to shareholders over time [6] Market Position and Outlook - The recent dividend hike enhances investor confidence in Caterpillar's long-term growth outlook, supported by ongoing technological innovation and expected recovery in end-market demand [7] - Caterpillar's stock has experienced a decline of 1.6% year-to-date, compared to the industry's 1.1% growth and the S&P 500's gain of 1.5% [12] Valuation Metrics - Caterpillar is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.04X, below the industry average of 19.86X [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year decline of 14.6% in earnings for 2025, with a revenue drop of 2.4% expected [14]