Core Viewpoint - Cameco (CCJ) shares have declined significantly, with a year-to-date drop of 20.9%, contrasting with the industry's return of 2.8% and the S&P 500's decline of 4.9% [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - The decline in Cameco's stock aligns with a 29% decrease in uranium prices over the past year, including a 12% drop this year [4]. - Cameco's stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend following a death crossover on March 4, 2025 [5][6]. - Peer Centrus Energy (LEU) has seen an 11% gain this year, highlighting the relative underperformance of Cameco [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For FY24, Cameco's revenues rose 21% year-over-year to $2.2 billion (CAD $3.14 billion), driven by higher sales volumes and improved average realized prices [8]. - In the uranium segment, sales volume increased by 5% and prices rose by 17%, contributing to a 24% increase in full-year revenues [9]. - Adjusted earnings per share were reported at 47 cents (CAD 0.67), down 24% year-over-year but above the consensus estimate of 42 cents [10]. Group 3: Production and Future Outlook - Cameco plans to produce 18 million pounds of uranium at both McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake in 2025, with projected uranium deliveries of 31-34 million pounds [11][12]. - Production from the joint venture Inkai faced challenges, with a total production of 7.8 million pounds in 2024, slightly lower than the previous year due to supply chain issues [15]. - Kazakhstan's new Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) will increase from 6% to 9% in 2025, impacting Cameco's cost structure [16]. Group 4: Market Valuation and Investment Considerations - Cameco's stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.84, significantly higher than the industry's 1.08 and above its five-year median of 6.05 [20]. - The company's Value Score of F indicates a stretched valuation, suggesting that the stock is not currently cheap [21]. - Despite the challenges, Cameco aims to maintain financial strength and flexibility to boost production and capitalize on market opportunities [22].

Company Overview - Cameco is primarily a uranium miner, involved in the extraction and processing of uranium for nuclear power plants. The company also has a stake in Westinghouse, which provides construction and maintenance services for nuclear facilities [2]. Industry Trends - There is a nuclear power renaissance in the United States, driven by the need for reliable base-load power as the world transitions from carbon-based energy sources to cleaner alternatives. Nuclear power is seen as a viable solution since it does not emit carbon dioxide [5][6]. - New reactor designs are being developed that are expected to be safer and more cost-effective than older models, including large-scale reactors and small modular reactors [6]. Market Dynamics - The price of uranium has been volatile, experiencing a decline after a multi-year increase, which has impacted Cameco's stock performance. Over the past three years, Cameco's shares have increased by over 90%, but in the last three months, the stock has lost more than 25% of its value [3][4]. - The market's perception of nuclear power's future plays a significant role in stock price movements. A positive outlook may present buying opportunities, while a negative view could indicate a longer-term trend of decline [8]. Investment Considerations - For risk-averse investors, Cameco may not be the ideal choice, as investing in utilities that own nuclear power plants could be a safer option. Conversely, for risk-tolerant investors with a long-term positive outlook on nuclear power, Cameco could provide direct exposure to the sector, albeit with expected volatility [9].

Group 1 - Cameco Corporation is recognized as one of the world's leading producers of uranium, with significant operations in conversion and fuel services, bolstered by the recent acquisition of Westinghouse [1][2] - The company holds a strong position in uranium through Tier 1 assets and strategic joint ventures, including partnerships with Orano and Kazatomprom for the Inkai asset [3] - Currently, Cameco maintains supply discipline, with 30% of its licensed and permitted capacity in care and maintenance due to market conditions [3] Group 2 - The conference call features Grant Isaac, the Executive Vice President and CFO of Cameco, who will provide insights and address questions regarding the company's operations and market strategy [1][2] - The focus of the discussion will include the company's uranium properties and the potential for further uranium production upside [3]

Core Viewpoint - Cameco's recent fourth-quarter and 2024 results showed strong revenue growth, but the stock has declined due to concerns over annual earnings and specific operational challenges [1][2][32]. Financial Performance - Fourth-quarter revenues increased by 36.5% year over year to $846 million (CAD 1,183 million), surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $753 million [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter were 26 cents (CAD 0.36), beating the consensus estimate of 23 cents [8]. - For 2024, revenues rose 21% year over year to $2.2 billion (CAD 3.14 billion), exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15 billion [11]. - Adjusted EPS for 2024 was 47 cents (CAD 0.67), down 24% year over year but above the consensus estimate of 42 cents [12]. Production and Sales - In Q4, Cameco produced 6.1 million pounds of uranium, a 7% increase from the previous year, and sold 12.8 million pounds, a 30% increase [9]. - The average realized uranium price rose 12% year over year to $58.45 per pound, contributing to a 48% increase in uranium revenues [9]. - For 2024, uranium sales volume grew by 5% and prices increased by 17%, leading to a 24% increase in uranium segment revenues [11]. Operational Challenges - Production from the Inkai joint venture was 7.8 million pounds, with Cameco's share being 3.6 million pounds, which was 0.6 million pounds lower than in 2023 due to supply-chain issues [16]. - The new Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) in Kazakhstan will increase from 6% to 9% in 2025, impacting future production costs [17]. Dividend and Financial Strategy - Cameco increased its annual dividend by 33% to 16 cents per share and plans to implement a growth plan to reach 24 cents per share by 2026 [19]. - The company ended 2024 with C$600 million ($422 million) in cash and C$1.3 billion ($0.91 billion) in long-term debt, indicating a solid balance sheet for future investments [20]. Market Position and Outlook - Cameco's return on equity stands at 5.6%, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.7% [25]. - The stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.71, above the industry average of 1.00, suggesting a premium valuation [26]. - The global focus on nuclear energy due to geopolitical events and climate concerns positions Cameco favorably to capitalize on rising low-carbon energy demand [28].

Group 1: Technical Analysis and Stock Performance - The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is a significant technical indicator for traders, serving as a barometer for overall stock sentiment [1] - Stocks trading above their 200-day SMA may indicate overbought conditions, while those below may signal potential upward movement [1][2] - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock is currently about 15% below its 200-day SMA and near its 52-week low, despite showing potential for sharp movements [6] Group 2: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Insights - FCX stock has a 12-month price forecast of $51.46, indicating a 39.20% upside based on 15 analyst ratings [3] - The stock is down 9.1% in the last six months, despite a 3.16% increase in 2025 [4] - The company is expected to resume copper shipments in February 2025, which could positively impact stock performance [5] Group 3: Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) Overview - Generac's stock has a 12-month price forecast of $174.00, suggesting a 26.20% upside based on 21 analyst ratings [7] - The company reported strong earnings due to stormy weather causing power outages, which has temporarily halted the stock's decline [8][9] - GNRC stock is consolidating around its 10-day SMA and is about 10% below its 200-day SMA, with the next earnings report expected in April [10] Group 4: Cameco Corp. (CCJ) Analysis - Cameco has a 12-month price forecast of $66.56, indicating a 52.81% upside based on 7 analyst ratings [11] - The stock has been in a bullish trend since 2020, with increased momentum in 2024 due to a positive shift in global attitudes toward nuclear power [12] - Cameco is expected to report significantly higher year-over-year revenue and earnings on February 20 [12][13]

Industry Overview - The nuclear energy sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by increasing electricity demand and a renewed interest in nuclear power as a reliable energy source [4][22] - A potential uranium supercycle is emerging due to soaring demand and limited supply, making uranium mining companies attractive investment opportunities [1][9] Demand Drivers - Global electricity demand is projected to double from 460 terawatt-hours in 2022 to over 1,000 terawatt-hours by 2026, largely fueled by artificial intelligence, data centers, and cryptocurrency [2] - The electrification trend, including the rise of electric vehicles and industrial processes shifting towards electricity, further accelerates the need for clean energy sources [3] Supply Constraints - Uranium supply is constrained due to years of low prices post-Fukushima, leading to mine closures and reduced exploration [5] - Existing uranium stockpiles are depleting, and geopolitical risks in major production countries like Kazakhstan and Niger add complexity to the supply chain [6][7] Investment Opportunities - The convergence of high demand and limited supply indicates a prolonged period of rising uranium prices, presenting a strategic investment opportunity in uranium mining companies [9] - Cameco Corporation, as the largest publicly traded uranium producer, has a strong market position with a market capitalization of $20.84 billion and significant growth potential [12] - Energy Fuels, a US-based producer, is positioned to benefit from domestic energy security, with a market capitalization of $981.53 million and projected revenue growth [16] Investment Vehicles - The Global X Uranium ETF offers diversified exposure to the uranium mining sector, with $3.43 billion in assets under management and a focus on companies involved in uranium mining and nuclear components [19][20]

Group 1: Company Performance - Cameco Corporation reported a 21% year-over-year increase in sales for 2024, but earnings fell over 50% to $0.39 per share [2] - The company generated $482 million in positive free cash flow last year, resulting in a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 40 [4] - Despite a market valuation exceeding $19 billion, Cameco's earnings over the past 12 months were only $119 million, leading to a high price-to-earnings ratio of 162 [4] Group 2: Market Conditions - The uranium market has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping approximately 31% from highs near $95 per pound a year ago to around $65 per pound [2] - Current uranium prices are above the $60 breakeven point, which encourages miners to increase production, potentially leading to further price declines [3] - The outlook for nuclear power and nuclear fuel fundamentals is described as more favorable than it has been for decades, with management predicting strong financial performance to continue in 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The uranium stock of Cameco is showing resilience and potential for growth, driven by strong financial performance and favorable market conditions in the nuclear energy sector [1][5]. Financial Performance - Cameco reported a 40% year-over-year increase in revenue for the fourth quarter and a 21% increase for the full year, primarily due to higher prices [2]. - The average realized price of uranium rose by 17% to $58.34 per pound, while sales volumes increased by 5% in 2024 [2]. - Despite a nearly 50% drop in net earnings for 2024, demand and sales remained strong [2]. Production and Operations - Production at Cameco's McArthur River/Key Lake mine reached a record high in 2024, attributed to advancements in automation and digitization [4]. - Production at the Cigar Lake mine fell short of expectations, but an increase in production is anticipated for 2025 [4]. - The company plans to produce a total of 36 million pounds of uranium in 2025, with 18 million pounds expected from each of its two mines [6]. Market Outlook - Management is optimistic about the nuclear power market, stating that the outlook for nuclear fuel fundamentals is more favorable than it has been for decades [5]. - The uranium market is shifting focus from spot prices to long-term contracts with utilities, which is beneficial for Cameco [5]. - As of December 30, 2024, Cameco had nearly 220 million pounds in long-term contracts and is actively discussing additional contracts, indicating a resurgence in utility interest in the uranium market [7]. Shareholder Returns - Cameco increased its annual dividend per share by 33% last year and expects this trend to continue, which is a positive signal for investors [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong fourth quarter and annual results for 2024, with net earnings and adjusted net earnings reflecting a return to Tier-1 production levels, higher sales volumes, and improved average realized prices [10][29]. - The adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse was noted as a better reflection of its strong underlying performance despite a full year net loss from Westinghouse due to purchase accounting [29]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Uranium segment, the company delivered just under 34 million pounds of uranium in 2024, with production slightly exceeding expectations at approximately 23.4 million pounds, driven by strong performance from the McArthur River/Key Lake operation [30][32]. - The production at the McArthur River/Key Lake operation set a new annual production record, while production from Inkai was impacted by supply chain issues, resulting in a total of 7.8 million pounds, about 600,000 pounds lower than in 2023 [30][32]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The long-term contracting volumes in 2024 remained below 120 million pounds, indicating a decline from previous years, but the company successfully negotiated off-market contracts, adding to its long-term portfolio [20][22]. - The company has commitments to deliver an average of about 28 million pounds of uranium over the next five years, with a total long-term book of business in the uranium segment now totaling approximately 220 million pounds [20][21]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on aligning production with its contract portfolio and market opportunities, emphasizing responsible supply management and operational efficiency [27][34]. - The strategic positioning in the nuclear sector is aimed at benefiting from expected growth while remaining protected against potential market fluctuations [26][27]. Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the nuclear power outlook, citing supportive market conditions and geopolitical factors that enhance energy security and clean energy needs [12][13]. - The company anticipates strong cash flow generation in 2025, supported by a disciplined strategy and a strong balance sheet [35][36]. Other Important Information - The company is monitoring potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy products and has taken proactive steps to mitigate any potential impacts [38][39]. - Recent developments include the resolution of a technology and export dispute involving Westinghouse, which is expected to enhance future cooperation and opportunities [37]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on contracting activity and market conditions - Management noted that while term volumes were down year-over-year, term prices increased significantly, indicating a shift towards recognizing the need for future supply [45][46]. Question: Impact of production suspension at Inkai - Management confirmed a strong long-term relationship with Kazatomprom and indicated that discussions are ongoing to assess the impact of recent production suspensions [56][57]. Question: Update on AP1000 builds and Westinghouse cooperation - Management expressed excitement about the Westinghouse deal and the potential for future cooperation, particularly in the context of new builds in various countries [62][64]. Question: Potential impact of lifting sanctions on Russia - Management emphasized that the growth plan does not depend on sanctions and that the supply-demand fundamentals remain strong regardless of geopolitical changes [78][80]. Question: Clarification on tariff responsibilities in contracts - Management explained that new contracts include clauses that place tariff responsibilities on customers, mitigating potential financial impacts [93][110].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong fourth quarter and annual results for 2024, with expectations for continued strong performance in 2025 supported by a long-term contract portfolio and Tier one assets [8][21] - Adjusted net earnings reflect a return to Tier one production levels, higher sales volumes, and an improvement in average realized prices [21][22] - The uranium segment delivered just under 34 million pounds in 2024, with production slightly exceeding expectations due to strong performance from the McArthur River Key Lake operation [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The uranium segment produced approximately 23.4 million pounds in 2024, with production from the McArthur River Key Lake operation setting a new annual production record [22][24] - Production from Inkai was impacted by supply chain issues, resulting in a total production of 7.8 million pounds, about 600,000 pounds lower than in 2023 [24] - The company plans to produce 18 million pounds at both McArthur River Key Lake and Cigar Lake in 2025, with production plans for Inkai remaining uncertain [24][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Utilities have purchased less than 40% of the uranium needed to operate through 2040, indicating a significant supply pressure in the mid-2030s [18] - The company has commitments to deliver an average of about 28 million pounds of uranium over the next five years, with a long-term book totaling approximately 220 million pounds [15][16] - The conversion segment is experiencing historic price levels, with prices driven by demand and supply dynamics [16][101] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a disciplined strategy that emphasizes long-term contracts and managing supply in accordance with customer needs [20][21] - There is a strong belief that the risk to uranium and nuclear fuel supplies is greater than the risk to durable demand, positioning the company for growth [10][11] - The company is exploring opportunities to improve operational flexibility and efficiency while enhancing safety performance and reducing environmental impact [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about supportive market conditions for nuclear energy, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and the need for clean energy [9][10] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expected growth in nuclear demand, with a strong balance sheet to manage risks [20][19] - Management noted that the current contracting environment is constructive, with utilities needing to secure long-term contracts to meet future demand [34][35] Other Important Information - The company has successfully refinanced $500 million in unsecured debt, extending maturity to 2031, and fully repaid a $600 million floating rate term loan [25][26] - The company is monitoring potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy products and has taken proactive steps to mitigate any potential impact [27][28] - Westinghouse has reached a resolution in its technology and export dispute, which may open doors for future cooperation and new build opportunities [26] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Update on contracting activity and market conditions - Management noted that while term volumes were down year-over-year, term prices increased significantly, indicating a constructive market for future supply [33][34] Question: Impact of production suspension at Inkai on 2025 levels - Management confirmed a strong long-term relationship with Kazatomprom and indicated no change in strategy despite recent production hiccups [41][42] Question: Update on AP1000 builds and Westinghouse cooperation - Management expressed excitement about the Westinghouse deal and the potential for new builds, emphasizing the importance of long-term contracts and market access clarity [44][45] Question: Impact of potential Russian sanctions lifting on uranium market - Management indicated that the growth plan does not depend on sanctions and that supply-demand fundamentals remain strong [56][57] Question: Mitigating steps regarding potential tariffs - Management confirmed that new contracts include clauses addressing potential tariffs, ensuring no material impact on the company [68][69] Question: Changes in U.S. utility customer behavior regarding contracts - Management stated that the proposed tariff is largely irrelevant at the moment, as demand remains inelastic for contracted volumes [93][94] Question: Conversion market pressures and potential expansions - Management acknowledged significant pressure on the conversion market and emphasized the need for clear market access rules to restart operations [99][102]