Core Insights - Carnival Corporation is experiencing a significant rebound in business, with stock prices increasing over 200% since mid-2020, driven by record revenues and net income in the third quarter [3][4] - Despite the positive performance, the company faces challenges related to its high levels of long-term debt, which currently stands at $25 billion, generating substantial interest expenses [6][8] Business Performance - Carnival's revenue for the third quarter reached a record $8.15 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 3.3%, while net income increased by 6.7% to a record $1.85 billion [3] - The company has achieved 10 consecutive quarters of record revenue, with consumer deposits remaining high at $7.1 billion for the third quarter [4] Market Context - The cruise industry is showing strong demand, contrasting with challenges faced by other sectors of the U.S. tourism industry, such as Las Vegas, which is experiencing a decline in visitors [5] - Macroeconomic factors, including lower interest rates, may support consumer spending in the cruise sector [4] Debt Situation - Carnival has accumulated significant long-term debt due to the pandemic, which has led to equity dilution and cash outflows that could impact investor returns for years [6][7] - The company reported an interest expense of $317 million in the third quarter, highlighting the financial burden of its debt [8]

Industry Overview - The consumer discretionary sector experienced moderate growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with expectations for improvement in the fourth quarter [1] - The sector is growth-oriented, with share prices increasing over the long term and being sensitive to market interest rates [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, with two more cuts expected this year [2] - Current probabilities for further rate cuts are 95.7% for October and 86.5% for December [2] Impact of Low-Interest Rates - A low-interest rate environment reduces discount rates, increasing the net present value of investments in growth stocks, benefiting sectors like consumer discretionary, technology, and cryptocurrency [3] Recommended Stocks - Five consumer discretionary stocks with favorable Zacks Ranks and solid short-term upside potential are identified: Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), Stride Inc. (LRN), and Planet Fitness Inc. (PLNT) [3][4] Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) - CCL is benefiting from resilient travel demand, stronger booking trends, and disciplined cost management, leading to an increase in full-year 2025 guidance [7] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for CCL are 6.4% and 49.3% for the current year, with a 5.5% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [10] - The short-term average price target indicates a potential increase of 25.8% from the last closing price of $28.09, with a maximum upside of 53.1% [11] Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) - NCLH is experiencing strong consumer demand and solid onboard spending, with record advance ticket sales of $4 billion [12] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for NCLH are 6% and 14.8% for the current year, with a 1.5% improvement in earnings estimates over the last seven days [14] - The short-term average price target suggests a potential increase of 32.7% from the last closing price of $23.04, indicating a maximum upside of 86.6% [15] Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) - LVS is benefiting from strong travel demand and improved operating conditions in Macao and Singapore, with a focus on capital investments [16] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for LVS are 7.7% and 17.6% for the current year, with a 1.5% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [17] - The short-term average price target indicates a potential increase of 30.4% from the last closing price of $46.47, with a maximum upside of 58.2% [18] Stride Inc. (LRN) - LRN provides K-12 education and career learning services, with a focus on developing skills for various industries [19][20] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for LRN are 10.7% and 8.8% for the current year, with a 2.7% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [21] - The short-term average price target suggests an increase of 18.5% from the last closing price of $144.99, indicating a maximum upside of 28.3% [22] Planet Fitness Inc. (PLNT) - PLNT is a leading operator of fitness centers, benefiting from higher royalties and new member acquisitions [23] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for PLNT are 10.1% and 13.1% for the current year, with a 0.7% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 90 days [25] - The short-term average price target indicates a potential increase of 29.2% from the last closing price of $92.67, with a maximum upside of 88.8% [26]

Stock Picks Overview - Strategists highlight stocks poised for positive returns, focusing on those with strong earnings reports [1] - Two stocks are featured: one in tech (AI play) and one in the cruise line industry [2] Carnival Corporation (CCL) Analysis - Carnival is a Zacks number one ranked stock with an A for VGM, indicating value [3][4] - Stock experienced a dip of over 10% in the past month, potentially creating a buying opportunity [5] - Carnival reported an 83% earnings surprise and has had eight consecutive quarters of record earnings [5][6] - Pre-bookings for the next year are at the same level as last year's record levels, with strong demand seen for 2027 [7] - Carnival offers a variety of cruise lines to meet different price points [8] - Analysts have raised earnings estimates six times for this fiscal year and next year [12] - Earnings are projected to grow 49% this year and 12% next year [13] - The company benefits from lower fuel prices and reduced promotional activity due to strong demand [13][14] - Carnival's valuation includes a forward PE ratio of 13 and a PEG ratio of 06, suggesting both growth and value [14] Micron Technology (MU) Analysis - Micron Technology is a Zacks rank number one strong buy rated stock, benefiting from the AI boom [16] - The stock is up approximately 48% as of the recording and is rebounding after a selloff [17] - BNP Pariba analyst raised the price target by 170% to $270, anticipating a memory super cycle [18] - Fiscal fourth quarter 2025 results showed earnings up 157% year-over-year and revenues up 46% year-over-year [18] - Analysts have been raising estimates for the current quarter and year [20] - The stock is up 125% year-to-date, making it the top-performing chip stock in 2025 [21] - Micron is trading at a forward PE multiple of 1095 times [22]

Core Insights - Carnival Corp. & plc (CCL) has reported another record quarter, with earnings expected to grow by 47.9% this year, indicating strong consumer demand for cruising [1][6]. Financial Performance - Carnival reported earnings of $1.43 for Q3 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus estimate of $1.32 by $0.11 [2]. - Revenue reached a record $8.2 billion, an increase of over $250 million from the same quarter last year, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of record revenue [2]. - Gross margin yields increased by 6.4% compared to the previous year [2]. Growth Drivers - Net yields were at an all-time high, 4.6% higher than 2024, driven by strong demand and onboard spending [3]. - The opening of Carnival's exclusive Celebration Key beach destination in the Bahamas is expected to be a growth catalyst for 2026 [3]. Booking Trends - Carnival's booking trends have remained strong, with higher booking volumes than last year and outpacing capacity growth since May [4]. - Nearly half of 2026 has already been booked, aligning with last year's record levels, and historical high prices have been achieved for North America and Europe segments [5]. Guidance and Analyst Sentiment - Carnival raised its net yields guidance for FY2025 to an increase of 5.3% compared to 2024, up 0.3 percentage points from previous guidance [6]. - Analysts have raised earnings estimates for both 2025 and 2026, with the 2025 Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing to $2.10 from $2.00 [6]. Stock Performance - Carnival shares recently reached a new 5-year high but have seen a 10.2% decline over the last 30 days, although they remain up 13.8% year-to-date [9]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.7, indicating it may be undervalued [12]. - Carnival's PEG ratio stands at 0.6, suggesting a combination of value and growth potential [14].

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corp. reported strong revenue and earnings for Q3 2025, but the stock experienced a decline post-earnings, raising questions about the market's reaction [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Carnival reported revenue of $8.2 billion, a 3.8% increase from $7.9 billion in Q3 2024, and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.33, up 5.6% from $1.26 [3]. - Consolidated revenue for the quarter was $8.15 billion, exceeding sell-side forecasts of $8.1 billion [3]. Guidance and Future Outlook - The company provided strong guidance updates, indicating robust cruise bookings for 2026 and raising its fiscal year 2025 earnings guidance from $1.97 to $2.14 per share [4]. - Despite the positive outlook, shares fell post-earnings, suggesting investor skepticism or reaction to other factors [4][5]. Debt Offering Context - On the same day as the earnings release, Carnival announced a $1.26 billion debt offering, which initially seemed to trigger the stock's decline [6]. - However, the debt offering is intended to refinance existing higher-yield debt, suggesting a strategic move to lower interest expenses rather than increasing leverage [7][8]. Market Comparison - Carnival's stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12, significantly lower than competitor Royal Caribbean's ratio of around 17, indicating potential for valuation improvement [11]. - The reinstatement of dividends by Royal Caribbean contrasts with Carnival's current status, but as Carnival pays down debt, it may also reinstate dividends, enhancing its attractiveness [11][12].

Group 1: Company Overview - Carnival operates as a leisure travel company, providing cruises to approximately 700 ports globally through multiple well-known cruise line brands [2] Group 2: Investment Thesis - Carnival stock is currently trading nearly 11% lower than its 1-year peak and has a price-to-sales (PS) multiple below the average of the last 3 years, indicating it may be undervalued [1] - The company has demonstrated reasonable fundamentals, including a revenue growth rate of 7.1% for the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 45.9% over the last three years [8] - Carnival maintains a free cash flow margin of approximately 11.1% and an operating margin of 16.4% LTM, suggesting strong cash generation capabilities [8] - The stock trades at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 14.4, which is considered modest given its encouraging fundamentals [8] Group 3: Market Performance and Risks - Carnival has experienced significant market declines in the past, including a 65% drop during the Dot-Com crash and a nearly 69% decline during the Global Financial Crisis [8] - The stock faced an 84% drop due to the Covid pandemic, highlighting its vulnerability to severe market shocks [10] - Despite robust fundamentals, significant sell-offs are inherent risks, as stocks can decline even in favorable market conditions due to events like earnings announcements and business updates [11]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets have continued to rise in 2025, with major indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 1.9%, 3.5%, and 5.6% respectively in August [1] - The gains are attributed to expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, strong second-quarter earnings, and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence [1][8] Investment Picks - Five stocks with favorable Zacks Rank and momentum for October are Analog Devices Inc. (ADI), Carnival Corp. & plc (CCL), Western Digital Corp. (WDC), DocuSign Inc. (DOCU), and Workday Inc. (WDAY) [2][8] - Each of these stocks has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and a Zacks Momentum Score of A or B [2] Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) - ADI has shown broad-based recovery, margin resilience, and strong free cash flow generation, driven by growth in automation, AI infrastructure, and automotive electrification [5][9] - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 11.8% and an earnings growth rate of 19.4% for the next year [9] Carnival Corp. & plc (CCL) - CCL benefits from resilient travel demand, stronger booking trends, and disciplined cost management, leading to an increase in its full-year 2025 guidance [10][12] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for CCL are 6.3% and 47.9% respectively for the current year [12] Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - WDC is experiencing strong demand in the cloud market, with a 36% surge in revenue from this segment, which constitutes 90% of total revenue [13] - The expected revenue growth rate for WDC is -17.8%, while the earnings growth rate is projected at 34.3% for the current year [17] DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) - DOCU's strength lies in its subscription revenues, which have been the majority of its top line, and it continues to grow internationally [18][20] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for DOCU are 7.1% and 3.9% respectively for the current year [20] Workday Inc. (WDAY) - WDAY's diversified product portfolio and cloud-based business model are key growth drivers, with significant investments expected to drive innovation [22][24] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for WDAY are 12.6% and 21.1% respectively for the current year [24]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is implementing a significant deleveraging strategy, reducing secured debt by nearly $2.5 billion and refinancing over $11 billion at favorable rates in Q3 FY25, aiming to return to investment-grade credit metrics [1][8] - The company ended Q3 FY25 with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.6x, down from 4.3x a year ago, with a target of below 3x by 2026, which has led to a Moody's upgrade and positive outlook [2][8] - Carnival plans to redeem all outstanding convertible notes by year-end, using $500 million in cash and equity, further lowering leverage to 3.5x entering FY26, with expectations of increased free cash flow and reinstating dividends once leverage stabilizes [2][8] Peer Comparisons - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) has secured investment-grade ratings and reported liquidity of $7.1 billion, with plans to reduce net leverage to the mid-2x range by the end of 2025, focusing on capital returns and long-term growth [3][4] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) has reduced net leverage to 5.3x and aims for the mid-4x range by 2026, enhancing liquidity through a 50% expansion of its revolving credit facility [5] Financial Performance - CCL shares have increased by 64.4% over the past six months, outperforming the industry growth of 28.3% [6] - CCL trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.51X, significantly below the industry average of 17.58X, indicating potential undervaluation [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 47.9% and 12.9%, respectively, with EPS estimates having risen in the past 60 days [10]

Core Insights - Carnival has experienced significant growth, with shares increasing by 291% over the past three years as of October 6, driven by a resurgence in travel demand post-COVID-19 pandemic [1][3] Financial Performance - In the fiscal 2025 third quarter, Carnival's revenue rose by 3% year over year to $8.2 billion, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of record revenues [3] - The company achieved a record in customer deposits, collecting $7.1 billion in Q3 [3] - Carnival reported record net yields and operating income, indicating strong financial health [3] Market Demand and Growth Potential - There is a robust demand for cruise travel, which is a positive indicator for investors [3] - The cruise industry is attracting younger customers and first-time travelers, suggesting an expanding market opportunity that can sustain long-term demand [5] - Carnival's leadership believes the company offers a compelling value proposition compared to land-based travel options, which could enhance its competitive advantage [4]

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corporation has demonstrated strong financial performance, achieving record revenues and profits, indicating robust demand for cruises despite concerns over high debt levels and economic uncertainty [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - Carnival reported third-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of record revenue [2]. - The company achieved an all-time high profit of $1.9 billion during the same period [2]. - Carnival has over $25 billion in long-term debt but has refinanced over $11 billion of it this year, benefiting from lower interest rates [3]. Stock Valuation - The stock is currently trading at levels not seen since 2021, yet it remains significantly below pre-pandemic highs, which were often above $50 [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio stands at 15, dropping to 12 based on forward earnings projections, suggesting the stock is modestly priced relative to profitability [5]. Demand Outlook - Nearly half of Carnival's 2026 bookings are already secured, reflecting strong ongoing demand for cruises [6]. - Cruises are perceived as budget-friendly travel options, which may sustain demand even amid economic challenges [6]. Investment Perspective - Despite the high debt load, Carnival's consistent profitability and record performance suggest a positive trajectory for the company [7]. - The stock is viewed as less risky than in previous years, with attractive pricing potentially supporting continued demand [8]. - The combination of low valuation and improved financial performance makes Carnival a compelling investment opportunity [8].