Core Insights - CF Industries is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 37.70% [1][2] Earnings Performance - In the most recent quarter, CF Industries reported earnings of $1.55 per share against an expectation of $1.05, resulting in a surprise of 47.62% [2] - For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $1.80 per share, while the actual earnings were $2.30 per share, leading to a surprise of 27.78% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for CF Industries have been trending upwards, with a positive Earnings ESP of +1.25%, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [3][6] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that stocks with this combination beat estimates nearly 70% of the time [4][6] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions, which are often more accurate [5] - It is crucial for investors to check a company's Earnings ESP prior to quarterly releases to enhance the chances of successful predictions [8]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.49 per share, indicating no change from the previous year, with revenues projected at $1.47 billion, reflecting a 6.7% decline year-over-year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 7.7%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are strongly correlated with short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Projections - The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales- Ammonia' is $451.17 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 8.9% [5]. - 'Net Sales- Granular Urea' is estimated at $359.17 million, reflecting an 8.4% decrease from the previous year [5]. - 'Net Sales- UAN (urea ammonium nitrate)' is projected at $408.57 million, indicating a 2.3% decline year-over-year [5]. - 'Net Sales- AN (ammonium nitrate)' is expected to reach $105.85 million, with an 11.8% decrease compared to the previous year [6]. Sales Volume Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Sales volume by product - UAN' at 1,806.32 KTon, slightly down from 1,812 KTon reported last year [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - Granular Urea' is forecasted to be 1,076.33 KTon, up from 1,038 KTon in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - Ammonia' is projected at 1,078.15 KTon, marginally higher than the 1,077 KTon reported last year [8]. - Total 'Tons of product sold' is expected to be 4,920.86 KTon, compared to 4,912 KTon in the previous year [8]. Average Selling Price Estimates - The average selling price per ton for 'Ammonia' is expected to be $417.62, down from $460 year-over-year [6]. - The average selling price per ton for 'UAN' is projected at $226.48, compared to $231 last year [9]. - The average selling price per ton for 'Granular Urea' is estimated at $334.48, down from $378 in the same quarter last year [9]. - The average selling price per ton for 'AN' is expected to be $265.09, compared to $290 last year [10]. Stock Performance - CF Industries shares have shown a return of -15.8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.9% change [10].

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 19, with indications of a potential earnings beat due to strong nitrogen fertilizer demand and lower natural gas costs, despite lower year-over-year selling prices impacting performance [1][2][5]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - CF Industries has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, with an average earnings surprise of 10.2% over the trailing four quarters [2]. - The Earnings ESP for CF is +1.25%, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter currently at $1.49 [5]. Group 2: Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries' fourth-quarter total sales is $1,466.4 million, reflecting a decline of approximately 6.7% year over year [7]. - Estimated sales for the Ammonia segment are $447.5 million, indicating a 9.6% decline year over year [9]. - The Granular Urea segment is estimated at $355.6 million, suggesting a decrease of 9.3% [9]. - Sales for the Urea Ammonium Nitrate Solution segment are projected at $369.9 million, indicating an 11.5% decline year over year [10]. - Total sales for the Ammonium Nitrate segment are estimated at $95.5 million, reflecting a decline of 20.4% year over year [10]. Group 3: Market Factors - CF Industries is expected to benefit from higher global demand for nitrogen fertilizers driven by strong agricultural demand, with healthy nitrogen demand anticipated in the December quarter [11]. - Lower natural gas prices are expected to reduce the company's cost of sales, with the average cost of natural gas falling to $2.10 per MMBtu from $2.54 per MMBtu year over year [12]. - While CF experienced higher selling prices in the third quarter due to increased ammonia prices from lower global supply, weaker year-over-year prices are expected to impact results in the fourth quarter [13].

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is expected to report flat earnings of $1.49 per share for the quarter ended December 2024, with revenues projected at $1.47 billion, reflecting a 6.7% decline from the previous year [3][12]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 3.15% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to be released on February 19, and the stock may react positively if actual results exceed expectations [2][3]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for CF is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +1.25%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [10]. - CF currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CF exceeded the expected earnings of $1.05 per share by delivering $1.55, resulting in a surprise of +47.62% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, CF has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13]. Investment Considerations - While an earnings beat can influence stock movement, other factors may also affect investor sentiment and stock performance [14]. - Monitoring the Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank can provide insights into potential investment opportunities ahead of earnings releases [15].

CF Industries (NYSE: CF ) is the largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer in the world, with six facilities in the United States, two in Canada, and one in the UK. It can be a volatile business, with a variety of cross-currentsAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CF either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no ...

Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering CF Industries (CF) , which belongs to the Zacks Fertilizers industry.When looking at the last two reports, this fertilizer maker has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 37.70%, on average, in the last two quarters.For the last reported quarter, CF came out with earnings of $1.55 per share versus the Z ...

About this content About Josh Lamb After graduating from the University of Kent in the summer of 2022 with a degree in History, Josh joined Proactive later that year as a journalist in the UK editorial team. Josh has reported on a range of areas whilst at Proactive, including energy companies during a time of global crisis, aviation and airlines as the sector recovers from the pandemic, as well as covering economic, social and governance issues. Read more About the publisher Proactive financial news and ...

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (CF) shares have popped 29.4% over the past six months. The company has also outperformed the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 1.5% rise over the same time frame. CF has also topped the S&P 500’s roughly 7.3% rise over the same period.Let’s take a look into the factors that are driving this fertilizer maker. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCF Stock Gains on Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Lower Gas CostsCF Industries benefits from the rising global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, ...

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (CF) shares have shot up 17.9% over the past six months. The company has also outperformed the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 0.3% decline over the same time frame. CF has also topped the S&P 500’s roughly 10.5% rise over the same period.Let’s take a look into the factors that are driving this fertilizer maker. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHealthy Nitrogen Demand, Lower Gas Costs Aid CF StockCF Industries is gaining from the rising global demand for nitrogen fertilizer ...

While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies.Of these, value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. Value investors use tried-and-true metrics and fundamental analysis to find companies that they beli ...