Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CF Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of $644 million for Q1 2025, reflecting strong performance amid favorable global nitrogen industry conditions [5][15] - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were approximately $312 million, or $1.85 per diluted share, marking a 60% increase compared to Q1 2024 [15] - Free cash flow was approximately $1.6 billion, with a conversion rate of 63% from adjusted EBITDA [15][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company produced over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia, achieving a 100% utilization rate for the second consecutive quarter [7] - Projected gross ammonia production for 2025 is approximately 10 million tons [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong global demand for nitrogen fertilizers is driven by low corn stocks and favorable farmer economics in North America, with USDA reporting corn planting expectations of 95 million acres [11][12] - Low channel inventories of nitrogen fertilizers due to high demand and production outages have supported prices into Q2 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CF Industries is focused on growth through the Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, which aims to supply ammonia and develop demand for low carbon ammonia [5][8] - The company is nearing completion of its carbon capture and sequestration project at the Donaldsonville complex, expected to start in H2 2025 [7][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the favorable nitrogen supply-demand balance and the company's position for future growth [19] - The company anticipates continued strong cash generation and value creation for long-term shareholders [19] Other Important Information - CF Industries has returned $5 billion to shareholders since 2022 through share repurchases and dividends, with an additional $2 billion share repurchase program authorized [6][16] - The company expects capital expenditures of approximately $650 million for the full year, with significant investments in existing operations and the Blue Point project [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Do you have any off-take agreements for blue ammonia from D. Ville? - Management confirmed that agreements are in place for blue ammonia, structured for growth, with expectations for increasing demand as the product becomes available [21][22] Question: Is CF Industries interested in the Air Products ammonia loop project? - Management indicated that the project does not align with their competitive strategy due to high operating costs associated with hydrogen production [24][25] Question: Can you clarify the conditions regarding JERA's stake in Blue Point? - Management expects JERA to maintain a 35% ownership level, and if they return 15%, CF Industries would still be comfortable with a 55% ownership [29][30] Question: How do you view the current urea and UAN market? - Management expressed satisfaction with their order book and noted that low inventories in North America are supporting strong prices [36] Question: What is the expected impact of tariffs on nitrogen derivative markets? - Management discussed the complexities of trade flows, noting that Russian fertilizers are entering the U.S. market tariff-free, which complicates the pricing dynamics [55][57] Question: How will Blue Point be reported in financials? - Management confirmed that Blue Point will be consolidated into financials, with revenues and costs reported in the ammonia segment [105]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $644 million for Q1 2025, reflecting strong performance in the global nitrogen industry [5][16] - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were approximately $312 million, or $1.85 per diluted share, marking a 60% increase compared to Q1 2024 [16] - Free cash flow was approximately $1.6 billion, with a conversion rate of 63% from adjusted EBITDA [16][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The production network achieved over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia, reflecting a 100% utilization rate [7][8] - The company projects approximately 10 million tons of gross ammonia production for 2025 [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong global demand for nitrogen fertilizers is driven by low corn stocks and favorable farmer economics in North America [11][12] - The USDA reported corn planting expectations of 95 million acres in the U.S., with potential for higher final planted acres due to nitrogen demand [11] - Global nitrogen inventory is expected to remain low, supporting strong demand in key consuming regions like Brazil and India [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on growth through the Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, aimed at supplying low carbon ammonia [5][8] - The Donaldsonville complex carbon capture and sequestration project is nearing completion, expected to start generating tax credits in H2 2025 [8][18] - The company plans to return $5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends since 2022, with an additional $2 billion share repurchase program authorized [6][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning for future growth, citing favorable industry dynamics and strong cash generation [20] - The global nitrogen supply-demand balance is expected to tighten through the end of the decade, with increasing demand for low carbon ammonia [13][20] Other Important Information - The company will hold an Investor Day on June 24 in New York to discuss strategy and long-term outlook [19] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be approximately $650 million, with significant investments in the Blue Point project [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Do you have any off-take agreements for blue ammonia from D. Ville? - The company has agreements in place for blue ammonia, structured for growth, with expectations for increasing demand as the product becomes available [22] Question: Is the Air Products project something the company might be interested in? - The company is not interested in the Air Products project due to high operating costs associated with hydrogen production [25] Question: Can you clarify the partnership stakes in BluePoint and potential changes in offtake? - The company expects JERA to maintain their 35% ownership, and any incremental ownership would be manageable in terms of marketing the tons [30][32] Question: How do you see the market for urea and UAN evolving? - The company is pleased with its order book and expects a positive market environment for Q2 and Q3, despite low inventories [36] Question: How is the company mitigating potential capital inflation for the Blue Point project? - The company is using modular construction to reduce on-site labor and inflationary pressures, with fixed-price contracts for modules [40][41] Question: What is the company's view on nitrogen cost curves and free cash flow conversion? - The U.S. is expected to remain a low-cost region for gas production, supporting strong free cash flow generation [44][46] Question: How will the company report Blue Point in its financials? - The company plans to consolidate Blue Point into its financials, reporting it within the ammonia segment [110]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CF Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of $644 million for Q1 2025, reflecting strong performance in the global nitrogen industry [4] - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were approximately $312 million, or $1.85 per diluted share, marking a 60% increase compared to Q1 2024 [14] - Free cash flow was approximately $1.6 billion, with a conversion rate of 63% from adjusted EBITDA [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company produced over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia, achieving a 100% utilization rate for the second consecutive quarter [6] - Projected gross ammonia production for 2025 is approximately 10 million tons [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong global demand for nitrogen fertilizers is driven by low corn stocks and favorable farmer economics in North America, with USDA reporting corn planting expectations of 95 million acres [10] - Channel inventories of nitrogen fertilizer are low due to high demand and production outages, supporting prices into the second quarter [11] - The global nitrogen supply-demand balance is expected to tighten through the end of the decade, with limited new project growth [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CF Industries is focused on growth through the Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, which aims to supply low carbon ammonia [4][5] - The company is nearing completion of its carbon capture and sequestration project at the Donaldsonville complex, expected to start in the second half of 2025 [6][7] - The company plans to return $5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends since the beginning of 2022, with an additional $2 billion share repurchase program authorized [5][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate free cash flow and create value for long-term shareholders [19] - The company anticipates favorable industry dynamics for its North American production network in the near term, with a tightening nitrogen supply-demand balance expected in the long term [19] Other Important Information - CF Industries will hold an Investor Day on June 24 in New York to discuss strategy and long-term outlook [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Do you have any off-take agreements for blue ammonia from the Donaldsonville project? - Management confirmed that agreements are in place for blue ammonia, structured for growth, with expectations for increasing demand as the product becomes available [21][22] Question: Is CF Industries interested in the Air Products project in Ascension Parish? - Management indicated that the project presents challenges and is not of interest due to high operating costs associated with hydrogen production [24][25] Question: Can you clarify the conditions regarding JERA's option to reduce their stake in Blue Point? - Management expects JERA to maintain their 35% ownership and is comfortable with the potential return of 15% of the economics, which would still leave CF Industries with a majority stake [29][30] Question: How do you see the nitrogen market evolving in the coming months? - Management noted a positive market outlook for Q2 and Q3, driven by low inventories and strong demand for nitrogen products [36] Question: How is CF Industries mitigating potential capital inflation for the Blue Point project? - The company is utilizing modular construction to reduce on-site labor and inflationary pressures, with fixed-price contracts for construction [40][41] Question: What is the expected impact of tariffs on nitrogen derivative markets? - Management discussed the complexities of current trade policies and the potential for Russian products to enter the U.S. market tariff-free, affecting pricing dynamics [55][57] Question: How will CF Industries report Blue Point in its financials? - The company plans to consolidate Blue Point into its financials, reporting revenue and costs associated with the joint venture while maintaining its existing ammonia segment structure [108][110]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported strong first-quarter 2025 earnings, with earnings per share of $1.85, significantly up from $1.03 in the same quarter last year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.47 [1] Financial Performance - Net sales increased approximately 13% year over year to $1,663 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,520.9 million [1] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $1,406 million, down around 13% from the prior quarter, while long-term debt remained flat at $2,972 million [5] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $586 million, reflecting a 32% year-over-year increase [5] - The company repurchased 5.4 million shares worth $434 million and announced a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective through 2029 [5] Segment Performance - Ammonia segment sales rose about 29% year over year to $520 million, exceeding the estimate of $482 million, with an average selling price per product ton of $454 [2] - Granular Urea segment sales increased around 8% year over year to $439 million, beating the estimate of $420 million, with an average selling price per product ton of $390 [3] - Urea Ammonium Nitrate segment sales grew approximately 11% year over year to $470 million, surpassing the estimate of $373 million, with an average selling price per product ton of $251 [3] - Ammonium Nitrate segment sales fell around 11% year over year to $101 million, missing the estimate of $107 million, but the average selling price per product ton was $308, exceeding the estimate of $270 [4] Market Outlook - The company expects a favorable global supply-demand balance due to strong demand from corn stocks and challenging production economics in Europe [6] - In North America, strong nitrogen demand is anticipated during the spring application season, driven by favorable returns for corn compared to soybeans [6] Stock Performance - CF Industries' shares have increased by 8.6% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry's rise of 5.1% [7]

Financial Performance - Q1 2025 net earnings were $312 million[8] - Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $644 million[9], driven by higher volumes and lower costs[15] - Last Twelve Months (LTM) adjusted EBITDA was $2.5 billion[10] - LTM free cash flow was $1.6 billion[10], with a 63% free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate[10] - $530 million was returned to shareholders in Q1 2025 through share repurchases and dividends[14, 19] Capital Allocation and Shareholder Value - A new share repurchase authorization of $2 billion was approved, expiring in December 2029[14] - Approximately $630 million remains in the current $3 billion share repurchase authorization, expected to be completed by December 2025[10, 14, 21, 25] - Since 2022, $5 billion has been returned to shareholders[25] Operational and Strategic Highlights - Gross ammonia production in 2025 is expected to be approximately 10 million tons[14] - Final Investment Decision (FID) was announced for the Blue Point Joint Venture low-carbon ammonia production facility with partners JERA and Mitsui[14] - CF's estimated capital investment for the Blue Point JV is $2.15 billion ($1.6 billion for the production facility and $550 million for scalable infrastructure)[32]

Core Insights - CF Industries reported a revenue of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, marking a 13.1% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +9.34% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52 billion [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.85, significantly higher than the $1.03 reported in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of +25.85% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.47 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - The average selling price per ton of Ammonia was $454, exceeding the five-analyst average estimate of $443.05 [4] - Total sales volume for UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) was 1,875 KTon, surpassing the five-analyst average estimate of 1,653.83 KTon [4] - Total product sales volume reached 5,004 KTon, compared to the five-analyst average estimate of 4,786.64 KTon [4] Net Sales Breakdown - Net Sales for Ammonia were reported at $520 million, significantly above the average estimate of $407.44 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +29.4% [4] - Net Sales for Granular Urea reached $439 million, slightly above the average estimate of $428.96 million, with a year-over-year change of +7.9% [4] - Net Sales for UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) were $470 million, exceeding the average estimate of $414.59 million, representing a year-over-year increase of +10.6% [4] - Net Sales for AN (ammonium nitrate) were $101 million, below the four-analyst average estimate of $113.40 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of -11.4% [4] - Net Sales for Other products were $133 million, slightly below the average estimate of $139.18 million, with a year-over-year change of +9% [4] Stock Performance - CF Industries' shares have returned +19.7% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +10.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - CF Industries reported quarterly earnings of $1.85 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.47 per share, and showing an increase from $1.03 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 25.85% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.34% and up from $1.47 billion year-over-year [2] - CF Industries has consistently outperformed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, achieving this four times [2] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.10 on revenues of $1.7 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $5.97 on revenues of $6.11 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for CF is currently mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Fertilizers industry, to which CF belongs, is currently ranked in the top 9% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

[Executive Summary & Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Executive%20Summary%20%26%20Highlights) CF Industries reported strong Q1 2025 results, driven by operational excellence, strategic low-carbon initiatives, and significant capital returns to shareholders [First Quarter 2025 Performance Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=1.1%20First%20Quarter%202025%20Performance%20Highlights) CF Industries reported strong Q1 2025 results, driven by outstanding operations and a positive global nitrogen environment, marked by increased net earnings, adjusted EBITDA, substantial share repurchases, and a positive FID for the Blue Point low-carbon ammonia joint venture | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :-------------------------------- | :------ | :------ | | Net Earnings | $312 million | $194 million | | Diluted EPS | $1.85 | $1.03 | | EBITDA | $617 million | $488 million | | Adjusted EBITDA | $644 million | $459 million | - Repurchased **5.4 million shares** for **$434 million** during Q1 2025, and the Board authorized an additional **$2 billion** share repurchase program through 2029[5](index=5&type=chunk)[16](index=16&type=chunk)[17](index=17&type=chunk) - Announced positive final investment decision (FID) for the Blue Point Complex low-carbon ammonia plant, forming a joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Ltd[1](index=1&type=chunk)[4](index=4&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk) [CEO Commentary](index=1&type=section&id=1.2%20CEO%20Commentary) CEO Tony Will highlighted the team's strong Q1 2025 results, emphasizing safe operations and execution, and noted the company's position for creating long-term shareholder value through growth initiatives and substantial capital returns - CEO Tony Will stated that CF Industries delivered strong Q1 2025 results through safe operations and effective execution[3](index=3&type=chunk) - The company's operational performance and cost-advantaged network are expected to create long-term shareholder value[3](index=3&type=chunk) - Commitment to investing in attractive growth initiatives, such as the Blue Point joint venture, and returning substantial capital to shareholders[3](index=3&type=chunk) [Strategic Developments](index=1&type=section&id=Strategic%20Developments) CF Industries is advancing key low-carbon initiatives, including a major ammonia joint venture, multiple carbon capture projects, and an N2O abatement project, to enhance sustainability and reduce emissions [Blue Point Joint Venture for Low-Carbon Ammonia](index=1&type=section&id=2.1%20Blue%20Point%20Joint%20Venture%20for%20Low-Carbon%20Ammonia) CF Industries formed a joint venture with JERA and Mitsui to construct and operate the world's largest low-carbon ammonia production facility at its Blue Point Complex, utilizing ATR with carbon capture and sequestration, with production anticipated to begin in 2029 - Joint venture formed with JERA (**35% ownership**) and Mitsui (**25% ownership**) for low-carbon ammonia production, with CF Industries holding **40% ownership**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - The facility at Blue Point Complex will be an autothermal reforming (ATR) ammonia production facility with CO2 dehydration and compression, estimated to cost approximately **$4 billion**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Expected annual nameplate capacity of approximately **1.4 million metric tons**, making it the largest ammonia production facility globally, with production starting in **2029**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - CF Industries will invest approximately **$550 million** for common facilities and receive ongoing compensation for services, while 1PointFive will transport and sequester **2.3 million metric tons of CO2 annually**[6](index=6&type=chunk)[7](index=7&type=chunk) [Carbon Capture and Sequestration Projects](index=4&type=section&id=2.2%20Carbon%20Capture%20and%20Sequestration%20Projects) CF Industries is advancing multiple carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects to reduce emissions and qualify for tax credits, with projects at Donaldsonville and Yazoo City Complexes aiming to capture significant amounts of CO2 for permanent storage [Donaldsonville Complex CCS Project](index=4&type=section&id=2.2.1%20Donaldsonville%20Complex%20CCS%20Project) The Donaldsonville Complex CCS project is in advanced stages, with commissioning in progress for a unit to capture up to 2 million metric tons of CO2 annually for storage by ExxonMobil, expected to start in 2025 and qualify for Section 45Q tax credits - Construction of a dehydration and compression unit at Donaldsonville Complex is in advanced stages, with commissioning in progress[22](index=22&type=chunk) - The unit will enable up to **2 million metric tons annually** of captured process CO2 to be transported and stored by ExxonMobil, with start-up expected in **2025**[22](index=22&type=chunk) - The project is expected to qualify for tax credits under Section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Code[22](index=22&type=chunk) [Yazoo City Complex CCS Project](index=4&type=section&id=2.2.2%20Yazoo%20City%20Complex%20CCS%20Project) CF Industries signed an agreement with ExxonMobil for the Yazoo City Complex CCS project, involving a **$100 million** investment for a CO2 dehydration and compression unit to capture up to **500,000 metric tons of CO2 annually**, with start-up expected in **2028** and eligibility for Section 45Q tax credits - Signed a definitive commercial agreement with ExxonMobil in July 2024 for transport and sequestration of up to **500,000 metric tons of CO2 annually** from Yazoo City Complex[23](index=23&type=chunk) - CF Industries will invest approximately **$100 million** to build a CO2 dehydration and compression unit at the Yazoo City Complex[23](index=23&type=chunk) - Start-up of the Yazoo City project is expected in **2028**, and it is also expected to qualify for Section 45Q tax credits[23](index=23&type=chunk) [Verdigris Complex N2O Abatement Project & Low Carbon Fertilizer Alliance](index=4&type=section&id=2.3%20Verdigris%20Complex%20N2O%20Abatement%20Project%20%26%20Low%20Carbon%20Fertilizer%20Alliance) CF Industries, as a founding member of the Low Carbon Fertilizer Alliance, is implementing a nitric acid plant emissions abatement project at its Verdigris Complex, aiming to reduce CO2-equivalent emissions by approximately **600,000 metric tons annually** starting in **2025** - CF Industries is a founding manufacturing member of the Low Carbon Fertilizer Alliance, managed by 3Degrees, to reduce emissions in agricultural supply chains[24](index=24&type=chunk) - The Alliance provides funding for emissions reduction initiatives, including a new nitric acid plant emissions abatement project at the Verdigris, Oklahoma, manufacturing facility[25](index=25&type=chunk) - This project is expected to reduce CO2-equivalent emissions from the Verdigris facility by approximately **600,000 metric tons annually**, beginning in **2025**[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Operational Overview](index=2&type=section&id=Operational%20Overview) CF Industries maintained a strong safety record and significantly increased gross ammonia production in Q1 2025, projecting approximately **10 million tons** for the full year [Safety Performance](index=2&type=section&id=3.1%20Safety%20Performance) As of March 31, 2025, CF Industries maintained a strong safety record with a **12-month rolling average recordable incident rate of 0.34 incidents per 200,000 work hours** - **12-month rolling average recordable incident rate was 0.34 incidents per 200,000 work hours** as of March 31, 2025[7](index=7&type=chunk) [Production Volumes](index=2&type=section&id=3.2%20Production%20Volumes) Gross ammonia production significantly increased in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 due to fewer outages, with the company projecting full-year 2025 gross ammonia production to reach approximately **10 million tons** | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (YoY) | | :-------------------- | :------ | :------ | :----------- | | Gross Ammonia Production | 2.6 million tons | 2.1 million tons | +0.5 million tons (+23.8%) | - The increase in ammonia production was due to significantly fewer production outages compared to the prior year, which experienced severe cold weather and other operational events[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Company expects gross ammonia production for the full year 2025 to be approximately **10 million tons**[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Financial Performance Overview](index=2&type=section&id=Financial%20Performance%20Overview) CF Industries reported strong Q1 2025 financial results with increased net sales and profitability, alongside active capital management through share repurchases and dividend payments [Consolidated Financial Results](index=2&type=section&id=4.1%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Results) CF Industries reported strong Q1 2025 financial performance, with significant year-over-year increases in net earnings, EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA, driven by higher average selling prices and increased sales volumes | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (YoY) | | :-------------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :----------- | | Net sales | $1,663 million | $1,470 million | +$193 million (+13.1%) | | Gross margin | $572 million | $409 million | +$163 million (+39.9%) | | Gross margin percentage | 34.4% | 27.8% | +6.6 percentage points | | Net earnings attributable to common stockholders | $312 million | $194 million | +$118 million (+60.8%) | | Net earnings per diluted share | $1.85 | $1.03 | +$0.82 (+79.6%) | | EBITDA | $617 million | $488 million | +$129 million (+26.4%) | | Adjusted EBITDA | $644 million | $459 million | +$185 million (+40.3%) | | Sales volume by product tons (000s) | 5,004 | 4,524 | +480 (+10.6%) | [Net Sales and Cost of Sales Analysis](index=2&type=section&id=4.2%20Net%20Sales%20and%20Cost%20of%20Sales%20Analysis) Net sales increased in Q1 2025 due to higher average selling prices and greater sales volumes, while cost of sales remained similar year-over-year, with higher natural gas costs offset by reduced maintenance expenses - Net sales increased to **$1.66 billion** in Q1 2025 from **$1.47 billion** in Q1 2024[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Higher global energy costs led to increased average selling prices for most major products[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Sales volumes for most major products were higher due to greater supply availability from increased production[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Cost of sales was similar to Q1 2024, with higher realized natural gas costs (**$3.68/MMBtu** in Q1 2025 vs. **$3.19/MMBtu** in Q1 2024) offset by lower maintenance costs[11](index=11&type=chunk)[12](index=12&type=chunk)[28](index=28&type=chunk) [Capital Management](index=2&type=section&id=4.3%20Capital%20Management) CF Industries is consolidating the Blue Point joint venture, impacting capital expenditure projections, and continued its share repurchase program with **$434 million** bought back in Q1 2025, authorizing a new **$2 billion** program, alongside an estimated **$71 million** distribution to CHS Inc [Capital Expenditures](index=2&type=section&id=4.3.1%20Capital%20Expenditures) Capital expenditures increased to **$132 million** in Q1 2025, with full-year 2025 projections of **$800-$900 million**, including **$300-$400 million** for the Blue Point joint venture | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :------------------ | :------ | :------ | | Capital Expenditures | $132 million | $98 million | - Full-year 2025 capital expenditures are projected to be approximately **$800-$900 million**, including **$300-$400 million** related to the Blue Point joint venture[15](index=15&type=chunk) - Excluding the portion funded by Blue Point joint venture partners, projected capital expenditures for 2025 are approximately **$650 million**[15](index=15&type=chunk) [Share Repurchase Programs](index=3&type=section&id=4.3.2%20Share%20Repurchase%20Programs) CF Industries repurchased **5.4 million shares** for **$434 million** in Q1 2025, with **$630 million** remaining on the current **$3 billion** program, and authorized an additional **$2 billion** program through 2029 - Repurchased **5.4 million shares** for **$434 million** during Q1 2025[5](index=5&type=chunk)[16](index=16&type=chunk) - Since Q2 2023, the company has repurchased **29.8 million shares** for approximately **$2.37 billion** under its current **$3 billion** program, with **$630 million** remaining[16](index=16&type=chunk) - Board authorized an additional **$2 billion** share repurchase program on May 6, 2025, effective through December 2029, commencing after the current program[5](index=5&type=chunk)[17](index=17&type=chunk) [CHS Inc. Distribution](index=3&type=section&id=4.3.3%20CHS%20Inc.%20Distribution) An estimated partnership distribution of approximately **$71 million** was earned by CHS Inc. for Q1 2025 - Estimated partnership distribution earned by CHS Inc. for Q1 2025 is approximately **$71 million**[18](index=18&type=chunk) [Dividend Payment](index=11&type=section&id=4.4%20Dividend%20Payment) CF Industries' Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of **$0.50 per common share**, payable on May 30, 2025, to stockholders of record as of May 15, 2025 - Quarterly dividend of **$0.50 per common share** declared on April 29, 2025[42](index=42&type=chunk) - Dividend payable on May 30, 2025, to stockholders of record as of May 15, 2025[42](index=42&type=chunk) [Nitrogen Market Outlook](index=3&type=section&id=Nitrogen%20Market%20Outlook) The nitrogen market is expected to remain constructive in the near term due to strong demand and constrained supply, with persistent energy cost differentials supporting North American producers and a tightening global balance longer term [Near-Term Outlook](index=3&type=section&id=5.1%20Near-Term%20Outlook) Global nitrogen pricing was supported in Q1 2025 by strong demand, constrained supply, and China's export restrictions, with management expecting a constructive supply-demand balance driven by strong corn demand, low global inventories, and challenging European production economics - Global nitrogen pricing supported by positive global demand, constrained supply (Iran natural gas shortages), and China's urea export restrictions[19](index=19&type=chunk) - North America expects strong nitrogen demand due to favorable corn returns and higher planted corn acres (**95.3 million acres** in 2025)[19](index=19&type=chunk) - Brazil is projected to remain the largest urea import region, exceeding **8 million metric tons**, while India is expected to have higher urea import requirements due to lower domestic production and inventories[19](index=19&type=chunk) - Europe's ammonia operating rates and domestic nitrogen output are expected to remain below historical averages, and China's urea export controls are anticipated to continue until at least after its domestic spring application season[19](index=19&type=chunk) [Medium-Term Outlook](index=4&type=section&id=5.2%20Medium-Term%20Outlook) Significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist in the medium term, supporting strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American nitrogen producers - Significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist[20](index=20&type=chunk) - The global nitrogen cost structure will remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers[20](index=20&type=chunk) [Longer-Term Outlook](index=4&type=section&id=5.3%20Longer-Term%20Outlook) Management anticipates a tightening global nitrogen supply-demand balance in the longer term, as capacity growth is not keeping pace with expected demand growth (**1.5% annually**), coupled with production constraints in Europe, Egypt, Trinidad, and Iran - Global nitrogen supply-demand balance is expected to tighten over the next four years[21](index=21&type=chunk) - Global nitrogen capacity growth is not projected to keep pace with expected demand growth of approximately **1.5% per year** for traditional applications and new clean energy demand[21](index=21&type=chunk) - Global production is expected to remain constrained by poor margins for European ammonia producers and natural gas availability issues in Egypt, Trinidad, and Iran[21](index=21&type=chunk) [Segment Performance](index=6&type=section&id=Segment%20Performance) CF Industries' segments showed varied performance in Q1 2025, with Ammonia, Granular Urea, and Other segments reporting increased net sales and gross margins, while UAN and AN segments experienced mixed results [Ammonia Segment](index=6&type=section&id=6.1%20Ammonia%20Segment) The Ammonia segment saw significant improvements in Q1 2025, with net sales and gross margin increasing substantially year-over-year, driven by higher sales volumes and increased average selling prices, partially offset by higher natural gas costs | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (YoY) | | :-------------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :----------- | | Net sales | $520 million | $402 million | +$118 million (+29.4%) | | Gross margin | $186 million | $65 million | +$121 million (+186.2%) | | Gross margin percentage | 35.8% | 16.2% | +19.6 percentage points | | Sales volume by product tons (000s) | 1,146 | 918 | +228 (+24.8%) | | Average selling price per product ton | $454 | $438 | +$16 (+3.7%) | | Adjusted gross margin | $235 million | $125 million | +$110 million (+88.0%) | | Adjusted gross margin per product ton | $205 | $136 | +$69 (+50.7%) | - Ammonia sales volume increased primarily due to greater supply availability from higher gross ammonia production[30](index=30&type=chunk) - Ammonia average selling prices increased due to higher global energy costs raising the global market clearing price[30](index=30&type=chunk) - Adjusted gross margin per ton increased due to lower maintenance costs and higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs[30](index=30&type=chunk) [Granular Urea Segment](index=7&type=section&id=6.2%20Granular%20Urea%20Segment) The Granular Urea segment experienced increased net sales and gross margin in Q1 2025, driven by higher average selling prices influenced by global energy costs, despite similar sales volumes and higher realized natural gas costs | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (YoY) | | :-------------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :----------- | | Net sales | $439 million | $407 million | +$32 million (+7.9%) | | Gross margin | $173 million | $154 million | +$19 million (+12.3%) | | Gross margin percentage | 39.4% | 37.8% | +1.6 percentage points | | Sales volume by product tons (000s) | 1,125 | 1,092 | +33 (+3.0%) | | Average selling price per product ton | $390 | $373 | +$17 (+4.6%) | | Adjusted gross margin | $244 million | $214 million | +$30 million (+14.0%) | | Adjusted gross margin per product ton | $217 | $196 | +$21 (+10.7%) | - Granular urea sales volumes for 2025 were similar to 2024[33](index=33&type=chunk) - Average selling prices increased due to higher global energy costs[33](index=33&type=chunk) - Adjusted gross margin per ton increased primarily due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs[33](index=33&type=chunk) [UAN Segment](index=8&type=section&id=6.3%20UAN%20Segment) The UAN segment saw increased net sales and sales volumes in Q1 2025, but experienced a slight decrease in gross margin and average selling prices, with lower average selling prices and higher natural gas costs contributing to a decrease in adjusted gross margin per ton | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (YoY) | | :-------------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :----------- | | Net sales | $470 million | $425 million | +$45 million (+10.6%) | | Gross margin | $142 million | $143 million | -$1 million (-0.7%) | | Gross margin percentage | 30.2% | 33.6% | -3.4 percentage points | | Sales volume by product tons (000s) | 1,875 | 1,611 | +264 (+16.4%) | | Average selling price per product ton | $251 | $264 | -$13 (-4.9%) | | Adjusted gross margin | $216 million | $202 million | +$14 million (+6.9%) | | Adjusted gross margin per product ton | $115 | $125 | -$10 (-8.0%) | - UAN sales volumes were higher due to greater supply availability from increased UAN production[35](index=35&type=chunk) - Average selling prices decreased due to the timing of sales, primarily concluded in a lower-priced environment in Q4 2024[35](index=35&type=chunk) - Adjusted gross margin per ton decreased primarily due to lower average selling prices and higher realized natural gas costs[35](index=35&type=chunk) [AN Segment](index=9&type=section&id=6.4%20AN%20Segment) The AN segment experienced a decrease in net sales and sales volumes in Q1 2025 due to lower supply availability, but gross margin and average selling prices increased, leading to an improved adjusted gross margin per ton, partially offset by higher natural gas costs | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (YoY) | | :-------------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :----------- | | Net sales | $101 million | $114 million | -$13 million (-11.4%) | | Gross margin | $16 million | $9 million | +$7 million (+77.8%) | | Gross margin percentage | 15.8% | 7.9% | +7.9 percentage points | | Sales volume by product tons (000s) | 328 | 390 | -62 (-15.9%) | | Average selling price per product ton | $308 | $292 | +$16 (+5.5%) | | Adjusted gross margin | $24 million | $21 million | +$3 million (+14.3%) | | Adjusted gross margin per product ton | $73 | $54 | +$19 (+35.2%) | - AN sales volumes were lower primarily due to lower supply availability from reduced production and lower starting inventory[38](index=38&type=chunk) - Average selling prices increased due to higher global energy costs[38](index=38&type=chunk) - Adjusted gross margin per ton increased primarily due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs[38](index=38&type=chunk) [Other Segment](index=10&type=section&id=6.5%20Other%20Segment) The Other segment, including products like diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) and nitric acid, reported increased net sales and gross margin in Q1 2025. Similar sales volumes combined with higher average selling prices, influenced by global energy costs, drove an increase in adjusted gross margin per ton, despite higher natural gas costs | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (YoY) | | :-------------------------------- | :------ | :------ | :----------- | | Net sales | $133 million | $122 million | +$11 million (+9.0%) | | Gross margin | $55 million | $38 million | +$17 million (+44.7%) | | Gross margin percentage | 41.4% | 31.1% | +10.3 percentage points | | Sales volume by product tons (000s) | 530 | 513 | +17 (+3.3%) | | Average selling price per product ton | $251 | $238 | +$13 (+5.5%) | | Adjusted gross margin | $68 million | $57 million | +$11 million (+19.3%) | | Adjusted gross margin per product ton | $128 | $111 | +$17 (+15.3%) | - Other sales volumes for 2025 were similar to 2024[41](index=41&type=chunk) - Average selling prices increased due to higher global energy costs[41](index=41&type=chunk) - Adjusted gross margin per ton increased primarily due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs[41](index=41&type=chunk) [Financial Statements & Non-GAAP Reconciliations](index=13&type=section&id=Financial%20Statements%20%26%20Non-GAAP%20Reconciliations) This section presents CF Industries' consolidated financial statements, including statements of operations, balance sheets, and cash flows, along with reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and details on items affecting comparability [Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=13&type=section&id=7.1%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) The consolidated statements of operations show a significant increase in net earnings attributable to common stockholders for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, driven by higher net sales and gross margin, despite increased total other operating costs and expenses | Metric | Q1 2025 (in millions) | Q1 2024 (in millions) | | :------------------------------------ | :-------------------- | :-------------------- | | Net sales | $1,663 | $1,470 | | Cost of sales | $1,091 | $1,061 | | Gross margin | $572 | $409 | | Operating earnings | $455 | $303 | | Earnings before income taxes | $437 | $300 | | Net earnings | $351 | $238 | | Net earnings attributable to common stockholders | $312 | $194 | | Diluted EPS | $1.85 | $1.03 | - Total other operating costs and expenses increased to **$121 million** in Q1 2025 from **$108 million** in Q1 2024, primarily due to U.K. operations restructuring costs of **$23 million**[52](index=52&type=chunk) [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=14&type=section&id=7.2%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) The condensed consolidated balance sheet shows a slight decrease in total assets from December 31, 2024, to March 31, 2025, primarily due to a reduction in cash and cash equivalents, with total liabilities increasing mainly from customer advances, and total equity decreasing | Metric | March 31, 2025 (in millions) | December 31, 2024 (in millions) | | :-------------------------------- | :--------------------------- | :------------------------------ | | Cash and cash equivalents | $1,406 | $1,614 | | Total current assets | $2,433 | $2,520 | | Total assets | $13,308 | $13,466 | | Total current liabilities | $939 | $818 | | Long-term debt | $2,972 | $2,971 | | Total liabilities and equity | $13,308 | $13,466 | | Total equity | $7,297 | $7,592 | - Customer advances significantly increased from **$118 million** at December 31, 2024, to **$241 million** at March 31, 2025[54](index=54&type=chunk) [Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=15&type=section&id=7.3%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) The consolidated statements of cash flows indicate an increase in net cash provided by operating activities in Q1 2025, but higher net cash used in financing activities, primarily due to increased treasury stock purchases, resulted in a larger decrease in cash and cash equivalents for the quarter | Metric | Q1 2025 (in millions) | Q1 2024 (in millions) | | :------------------------------------ | :-------------------- | :-------------------- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | $586 | $445 | | Net cash used in investing activities | ($126) | ($100) | | Net cash used in financing activities | ($671) | ($602) | | Decrease in cash and cash equivalents | ($208) | ($259) | | Cash and cash equivalents at end of period | $1,406 | $1,773 | - Purchases of treasury stock increased to **$444 million** in Q1 2025 from **$339 million** in Q1 2024[56](index=56&type=chunk) - Changes in assets and liabilities, particularly accounts receivable and customer advances, significantly impacted operating cash flow[56](index=56&type=chunk) [Non-GAAP Financial Measures Reconciliations](index=16&type=section&id=7.4%20Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures%20Reconciliations) CF Industries provides reconciliations for non-GAAP financial measures like Free Cash Flow, EBITDA, and Adjusted EBITDA, which management uses to assess performance and financial strength, offering additional insights beyond GAAP results for year-over-year comparisons [Free Cash Flow Reconciliation](index=16&type=section&id=7.4.1%20Free%20Cash%20Flow%20Reconciliation) Free cash flow increased by **$188 million** year-over-year for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2025, as detailed in the reconciliation | Metric | TTM March 31, 2025 (in millions) | TTM March 31, 2024 (in millions) | | :-------------------------------- | :------------------------------- | :------------------------------- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | $2,412 | $2,255 | | Capital expenditures | ($552) | ($528) | | Distributions to noncontrolling interest | ($293) | ($348) | | Free cash flow | $1,567 | $1,379 | - Free cash flow increased by **$188 million** year-over-year for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2025[59](index=59&type=chunk) [EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation](index=17&type=section&id=7.4.2%20EBITDA%20and%20Adjusted%20EBITDA%20Reconciliation) Adjusted EBITDA increased by **$185 million (40.3%)** in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, reflecting strong operational performance, with adjustments including an unrealized net mark-to-market loss on natural gas derivatives and a loss on the sale of the Ince facility | Metric | Q1 2025 (in millions) | Q1 2024 (in millions) | | :-------------------------------- | :-------------------- | :-------------------- | | Net earnings attributable to common stockholders | $312 | $194 | | EBITDA | $617 | $488 | | Adjusted EBITDA | $644 | $459 | | Adjusted EBITDA per ton | $128.70 | $101.46 | - Adjusted EBITDA increased by **$185 million (40.3%)** in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, reflecting strong operational performance[64](index=64&type=chunk) - Adjustments to EBITDA in Q1 2025 included a **$2 million** unrealized net mark-to-market loss on natural gas derivatives and a **$23 million** loss on the sale of the Ince facility[64](index=64&type=chunk) [Items Affecting Comparability of Results](index=18&type=section&id=7.5%20Items%20Affecting%20Comparability%20of%20Results) Certain items impacted the comparability of financial results between Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, including unrealized mark-to-market losses/gains on natural gas derivatives, foreign currency transaction losses, and a **$23 million** loss on the sale of the Ince facility in Q1 2025 | Item | Q1 2025 Pre-Tax (in millions) | Q1 2025 After-Tax (in millions) | Q1 2024 Pre-Tax (in millions) | Q1 2024 After-Tax (in millions) | | :------------------------------------------ | :---------------------------- | :------------------------------ | :---------------------------- | :------------------------------ | | Unrealized net mark-to-market loss (gain) on natural gas derivatives | $2 | $1 | ($33) | ($26) | | Loss on foreign currency transactions | $2 | $1 | $1 | $1 | | Loss on sale of Ince facility | $23 | $21 | — | — | | Integration costs | — | — | $3 | $2 | - The loss on the sale of the Ince facility, totaling **$23 million** pre-tax, was a new item affecting comparability in Q1 2025[67](index=67&type=chunk) [Additional Information](index=11&type=section&id=Additional%20Information) This section provides an overview of CF Industries, clarifies the use of non-GAAP financial measures, includes a safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking information, and lists contact details [About CF Industries](index=11&type=section&id=8.1%20About%20CF%20Industries) CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, committed to providing clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably, focusing on safe operations, environmental stewardship, and decarbonizing its ammonia production network - CF Industries' mission is to provide clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably[44](index=44&type=chunk) - The company is decarbonizing its ammonia production network to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities[44](index=44&type=chunk) - Operates manufacturing complexes in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K., with an extensive North American storage, transportation, and distribution network[44](index=44&type=chunk) [Note Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Measures](index=11&type=section&id=8.2%20Note%20Regarding%20Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures) CF Industries utilizes non-GAAP financial measures like EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow to provide additional meaningful information on performance and financial strength, serving as supplemental tools for year-over-year comparisons with provided reconciliations - Non-GAAP measures (EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, adjusted gross margin) provide additional meaningful information on performance and financial strength[45](index=45&type=chunk) - Management uses these measures as supplemental financial tools for year-over-year performance comparison[45](index=45&type=chunk) - Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided within the release[45](index=45&type=chunk) [Safe Harbor Statement](index=11&type=section&id=8.3%20Safe%20Harbor%20Statement) The Safe Harbor Statement clarifies that the communication contains forward-looking statements subject to various assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including project completion, funding, market cyclicality, commodity prices, regulatory changes, and technological performance - All statements other than historical facts are forward-looking and subject to assumptions, risks, and uncertainties beyond the company's control[46](index=46&type=chunk)[47](index=47&type=chunk) - Important factors that could cause actual results to differ include project completion, funding needs, market cyclicality, global competition, natural gas price volatility, and regulatory changes[47](index=47&type=chunk) - The company disclaims any obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, except as required by law[48](index=48&type=chunk) [Contact Information](index=12&type=section&id=8.4%20Contact%20Information) Contact information for media and investor relations is provided for inquiries regarding CF Industries Holdings, Inc - Media contact: Chris Close, Senior Director, Corporate Communications (**847-405-2542**, cclose@cfindustries.com)[49](index=49&type=chunk)[50](index=50&type=chunk) - Investor contact: Darla Rivera, Director, Investor Relations (**847-405-2045**, darla.rivera@cfindustries.com)[49](index=49&type=chunk)[50](index=50&type=chunk)

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is expected to report a quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $1.47, marking a 42.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $1.52 billion, reflecting a 3.5% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Earnings Projections - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 7.8%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3] Key Metrics Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales - Ammonia' is $407.44 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.4% [4] - 'Net Sales - Granular Urea' is expected to be $428.96 million, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales - UAN (urea ammonium nitrate)' is projected at $414.59 million, indicating a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales - AN (ammonium nitrate)' is estimated to reach $113.40 million, showing a slight decline of 0.5% from the prior-year quarter [5] Sales Volume and Pricing - The estimated 'Average selling price per product ton - Ammonia' is $443.05, compared to $438 in the previous year [6] - 'Sales volume by product - UAN' is expected to be 1,653.83 KTon, up from 1,611 KTon year-over-year [6] - 'Sales volume by product - Granular Urea' is projected at 1,128.25 KTon, an increase from 1,092 KTon in the prior year [6] - 'Sales volume by product - Ammonia' is forecasted to be 914.12 KTon, slightly down from 918 KTon year-over-year [7] - Total 'Tons of product sold' is expected to reach 4,786.64 KTon, up from 4,524 KTon in the same quarter last year [7] Average Selling Prices - The average selling price per product ton for 'UAN' is estimated at $248.76, down from $264 in the previous year [8] - The average selling price for 'Granular Urea' is projected to be $380.58, compared to $373 year-over-year [8] - The average selling price for 'AN' is expected to be $282.22, down from $292 in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, CF shares have increased by 10.3%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which recorded a return of 0.4% [9]

Company Overview - CF Industries is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.47 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +42.7% [3] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $1.52 billion, which is a 3.5% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 7.83% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for CF is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.17% [10] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CF Industries exceeded the expected earnings of $1.49 per share by delivering $1.89, resulting in a surprise of +26.85% [12] - Over the past four quarters, CF has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13] Industry Context - Another player in the fertilizers industry, Mosaic, is expected to report earnings of $0.39 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of -40% [17] - Mosaic's revenues are projected to be $2.67 billion, down 0.5% from the previous year [17] - Mosaic has an Earnings ESP of 15.82%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [18]