CF Industries (CF) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 08, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Martin Jarosick - VP - IR & TreasuryW. Anthony Will - President, CEO & DirectorChristopher Bohn - EVP, COO & DirectorBert Frost - Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply ChainGregory Cameron - Executive VP & Chief Financial OfficerRichard Garchitorena - Vice President - Equity ResearchW. Anthony Will - President, CEO & DirectorJoel Jackson - Managing DirectorChristopher Parkinson - Managing Director ...

CF Industries (CF) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 08, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Martin Jarosick - VP - IR & TreasuryW. Anthony Will - President, CEO & DirectorChristopher Bohn - EVP, COO & DirectorBert Frost - Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply ChainGregory Cameron - Executive VP & Chief Financial OfficerRichard Garchitorena - Vice President - Equity ResearchJoel Jackson - Managing DirectorChristopher Parkinson - Managing DirectorBenjamin Theurer - Managing DirectorVincent ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CF Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of $644 million for Q1 2025, reflecting strong performance in the global nitrogen industry [4] - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were approximately $312 million, or $1.85 per diluted share, marking a 60% increase compared to Q1 2024 [14] - Free cash flow was approximately $1.6 billion, with a conversion rate of 63% from adjusted EBITDA [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company produced over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia, achieving a 100% utilization rate for the second consecutive quarter [6] - Projected gross ammonia production for 2025 is approximately 10 million tons [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong global demand for nitrogen fertilizers is driven by low corn stocks and favorable farmer economics in North America, with USDA reporting corn planting expectations of 95 million acres [10] - Channel inventories of nitrogen fertilizer are low due to high demand and production outages, supporting prices into the second quarter [11] - The global nitrogen supply-demand balance is expected to tighten through the end of the decade, with limited new project growth [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CF Industries is focused on growth through the Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, which aims to supply low carbon ammonia [4][5] - The company is nearing completion of its carbon capture and sequestration project at the Donaldsonville complex, expected to start in the second half of 2025 [6][7] - The company plans to return $5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends since the beginning of 2022, with an additional $2 billion share repurchase program authorized [5][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate free cash flow and create value for long-term shareholders [19] - The company anticipates favorable industry dynamics for its North American production network in the near term, with a tightening nitrogen supply-demand balance expected in the long term [19] Other Important Information - CF Industries will hold an Investor Day on June 24 in New York to discuss strategy and long-term outlook [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Do you have any off-take agreements for blue ammonia from the Donaldsonville project? - Management confirmed that agreements are in place for blue ammonia, structured for growth, with expectations for increasing demand as the product becomes available [21][22] Question: Is CF Industries interested in the Air Products project in Ascension Parish? - Management indicated that the project presents challenges and is not of interest due to high operating costs associated with hydrogen production [24][25] Question: Can you clarify the conditions regarding JERA's option to reduce their stake in Blue Point? - Management expects JERA to maintain their 35% ownership and is comfortable with the potential return of 15% of the economics, which would still leave CF Industries with a majority stake [29][30] Question: How do you see the nitrogen market evolving in the coming months? - Management noted a positive market outlook for Q2 and Q3, driven by low inventories and strong demand for nitrogen products [36] Question: How is CF Industries mitigating potential capital inflation for the Blue Point project? - The company is utilizing modular construction to reduce on-site labor and inflationary pressures, with fixed-price contracts for construction [40][41] Question: What is the expected impact of tariffs on nitrogen derivative markets? - Management discussed the complexities of current trade policies and the potential for Russian products to enter the U.S. market tariff-free, affecting pricing dynamics [55][57] Question: How will CF Industries report Blue Point in its financials? - The company plans to consolidate Blue Point into its financials, reporting revenue and costs associated with the joint venture while maintaining its existing ammonia segment structure [108][110]

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) logged first-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.85 per share, up from $1.03 in the year-ago quarter. The figure topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.47.Net sales rose around 13% year over year to $1,663 million in the quarter. It surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,520.9 million.Average selling prices for most of CF’s key products increased year over year in the reported quarter as higher global energy costs raised the global market-clearing price needed to meet glob ...

2025 First Quarter Financial Results May 7, 2025 NYSE: CF Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the "Company"), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such as "anticipate," "believe," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "will" or "would" and similar terms and phrases, ...

Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance. Here is how CF performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: For the quarter ended March 2025, CF Industries (CF) reported revenue of $1.66 billion, up 13.1% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.8 ...

Core Insights - CF Industries reported quarterly earnings of $1.85 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.47 per share, and showing an increase from $1.03 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 25.85% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.34% and up from $1.47 billion year-over-year [2] - CF Industries has consistently outperformed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, achieving this four times [2] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.10 on revenues of $1.7 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $5.97 on revenues of $6.11 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for CF is currently mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Fertilizers industry, to which CF belongs, is currently ranked in the top 9% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2025 Net Earnings of $312 Million, Adjusted EBITDA of $644 Million Outstanding Operations, Positive Global Nitrogen Environment Drive Strong Q1 2025 Performance Announced FID for Blue Point Joint Venture Low-Carbon Ammonia Production Facility Board Authorizes Additional $2 Billion Share Repurchase Program Through 2029 NORTHBROOK, Ill.—May 7, 2025—CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, today ...

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is expected to report a quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $1.47, marking a 42.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $1.52 billion, reflecting a 3.5% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Earnings Projections - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 7.8%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3] Key Metrics Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales - Ammonia' is $407.44 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.4% [4] - 'Net Sales - Granular Urea' is expected to be $428.96 million, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales - UAN (urea ammonium nitrate)' is projected at $414.59 million, indicating a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales - AN (ammonium nitrate)' is estimated to reach $113.40 million, showing a slight decline of 0.5% from the prior-year quarter [5] Sales Volume and Pricing - The estimated 'Average selling price per product ton - Ammonia' is $443.05, compared to $438 in the previous year [6] - 'Sales volume by product - UAN' is expected to be 1,653.83 KTon, up from 1,611 KTon year-over-year [6] - 'Sales volume by product - Granular Urea' is projected at 1,128.25 KTon, an increase from 1,092 KTon in the prior year [6] - 'Sales volume by product - Ammonia' is forecasted to be 914.12 KTon, slightly down from 918 KTon year-over-year [7] - Total 'Tons of product sold' is expected to reach 4,786.64 KTon, up from 4,524 KTon in the same quarter last year [7] Average Selling Prices - The average selling price per product ton for 'UAN' is estimated at $248.76, down from $264 in the previous year [8] - The average selling price for 'Granular Urea' is projected to be $380.58, compared to $373 year-over-year [8] - The average selling price for 'AN' is expected to be $282.22, down from $292 in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, CF shares have increased by 10.3%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which recorded a return of 0.4% [9]

The market expects CF Industries (CF) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released ...