[Financial and Operational Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Financial%20and%20Operational%20Highlights) [First Half and Q2 2025 Performance Summary](index=1&type=section&id=First%20Half%20and%20Q2%202025%20Performance%20Summary) CF Industries reported strong first-half 2025 financial results, with net earnings of $698 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.41 billion, driven by operational excellence and a favorable nitrogen market, including the Donaldsonville CCS project start-up Key Financial Metrics (1H & Q2 2025 vs 2024) | Metric | 1H 2025 | 1H 2024 | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Earnings | $698M | $614M | $386M | $420M | | Diluted EPS | $4.20 | $3.31 | $2.37 | $2.30 | | EBITDA | $1.37B | $1.24B | $757M | $752M | | Adjusted EBITDA | $1.41B | $1.21B | $761M | $752M | - The company's strong performance was attributed to excellent operational execution and constructive global nitrogen industry dynamics[3](index=3&type=chunk) - A significant milestone was achieved with the start-up of the Donaldsonville Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) project in July 2025, which began generating 45Q tax credits[1](index=1&type=chunk)[3](index=3&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Higher average selling prices in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024 were driven by increased global energy costs, which raised the market clearing price for nitrogen products[7](index=7&type=chunk) [Operations Overview](index=1&type=section&id=Operations%20Overview) The company maintained a strong safety record and increased first-half 2025 gross ammonia production to 5.2 million tons, projecting 10 million tons for the full year Gross Ammonia Production (in million tons) | Period | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | First Half | 5.2 | 4.8 | | Second Quarter | 2.6 | 2.6 | - The company expects gross ammonia production for the full year 2025 to be approximately **10 million tons**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - The 12-month rolling average recordable incident rate was **0.30 incidents per 200,000 work hours** as of June 30, 2025[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Capital Management](index=2&type=section&id=Capital%20Management) CF Industries formed the Blue Point JV for low-carbon ammonia, reported $1.69 billion in cash, and incurred $377 million in H1 2025 capital expenditures, projecting $800-$900 million for the full year - A joint venture (Blue Point) was formed with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. for the production of low-carbon ammonia. CF Industries holds a **40% ownership stake**[13](index=13&type=chunk) - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were **$1.69 billion**, with **$264 million** held by the Blue Point joint venture[14](index=14&type=chunk) Capital Expenditures (1H 2025) | Category | Q2 2025 | 1H 2025 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Capital Expenditures | $245M | $377M | | - CF Industries Existing Ops | $155M | $287M | | - Blue Point Joint Venture | $90M | $90M | - Projected capital expenditures for the full year 2025 are estimated to be between **$800-$900 million**[16](index=16&type=chunk) [Market Outlook and Strategic Initiatives](index=4&type=section&id=Market%20Outlook%20and%20Strategic%20Initiatives) [Nitrogen Market Outlook](index=4&type=section&id=Nitrogen%20Market%20Outlook) The company maintains a constructive outlook on the global nitrogen market, anticipating continued strong demand, persistent North American energy cost advantages, and a long-term tightening supply-demand balance - Near-term outlook is positive due to strong demand from Brazil and India, low global inventories, and supply constraints from regions like Egypt and Trinidad[21](index=21&type=chunk) - Chinese urea exports are capped at **3 million metric tons** for 2025, which is not expected to significantly loosen the global supply-demand balance[22](index=22&type=chunk) - Medium-term outlook remains favorable for low-cost North American producers due to persistent energy cost differentials with Europe and Asia[22](index=22&type=chunk) - Long-term projections indicate a tightening global nitrogen market as demand growth (approx. **1.5% per year**) is expected to exceed new capacity growth over the next four years[23](index=23&type=chunk) [Strategic Initiatives Update](index=5&type=section&id=Strategic%20Initiatives%20Update) The company is advancing its clean energy strategy with the Blue Point JV's $3.7 billion low-carbon ATR ammonia facility and the Donaldsonville CCS project, which started in July 2025, generating 45Q tax credits - The Blue Point joint venture will build an autothermal reforming (ATR) ammonia facility with carbon capture, estimated to cost approximately **$3.7 billion**[24](index=24&type=chunk) - The Donaldsonville CCS project started up in July 2025, allowing for the permanent sequestration of up to **2 million metric tons of CO2 annually**[25](index=25&type=chunk) - The Donaldsonville project qualifies for tax credits under Section 45Q and is expected to produce approximately **1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia annually**[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Results](index=6&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Results) Consolidated Results Summary (2025 vs 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | 1H 2025 | 1H 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $1,890M | $1,572M | $3,553M | $3,042M | | Gross Margin | $755M | $679M | $1,327M | $1,088M | | Net Earnings | $386M | $420M | $698M | $614M | | Diluted EPS | $2.37 | $2.30 | $4.20 | $3.31 | | Adjusted EBITDA | $761M | $752M | $1,405M | $1,211M | | Sales Volume (k tons) | 5,021 | 4,875 | 10,025 | 9,399 | | Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu) | $3.36 | $1.90 | $3.52 | $2.53 | [Segment Performance](index=7&type=section&id=Segment%20Performance) [Ammonia Segment](index=7&type=section&id=Ammonia%20Segment) The Ammonia segment's net sales increased to $1.01 billion in H1 2025, driven by higher sales volumes and average selling prices, leading to an improved adjusted gross margin per ton Ammonia Segment Performance (1H 2025 vs 1H 2024) | Metric | 1H 2025 | 1H 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $1,011M | $811M | | Gross Margin | $322M | $212M | | Sales Volume (k tons) | 2,233 | 1,897 | | Avg. Selling Price/ton | $453 | $428 | - Sales volume increased in H1 2025 due to greater supply availability from higher gross ammonia production[30](index=30&type=chunk) - Adjusted gross margin per ton increased due to higher selling prices and lower maintenance costs, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs[30](index=30&type=chunk) [Granular Urea Segment](index=8&type=section&id=Granular%20Urea%20Segment) The Granular Urea segment's net sales rose to $986 million in H1 2025, primarily due to higher average selling prices driven by global energy costs, which improved adjusted gross margin per ton Granular Urea Segment Performance (1H 2025 vs 1H 2024) | Metric | 1H 2025 | 1H 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $986M | $864M | | Gross Margin | $452M | $381M | | Sales Volume (k tons) | 2,313 | 2,343 | | Avg. Selling Price/ton | $426 | $369 | - Sales volumes for granular urea were similar year-over-year for the first half[33](index=33&type=chunk) - The increase in average selling prices and adjusted gross margin per ton was primarily due to higher global energy costs raising the market clearing price[33](index=33&type=chunk) [UAN Segment](index=9&type=section&id=UAN%20Segment) The UAN segment's net sales increased to $1.08 billion in H1 2025, driven by higher sales volumes and average selling prices, while adjusted gross margin per ton remained similar UAN Segment Performance (1H 2025 vs 1H 2024) | Metric | 1H 2025 | 1H 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $1,080M | $900M | | Gross Margin | $412M | $359M | | Sales Volume (k tons) | 3,777 | 3,359 | | Avg. Selling Price/ton | $286 | $268 | - UAN sales volumes were higher in H1 2025 due to inventory draw down, greater supply availability, and higher starting inventory[35](index=35&type=chunk) - Adjusted gross margin per ton for UAN was similar in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024[35](index=35&type=chunk) [AN Segment](index=10&type=section&id=AN%20Segment) The AN segment's net sales slightly increased to $218 million in H1 2025 due to higher average selling prices, which also improved adjusted gross margin per ton despite stable sales volumes AN Segment Performance (1H 2025 vs 1H 2024) | Metric | 1H 2025 | 1H 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $218M | $212M | | Gross Margin | $41M | $32M | | Sales Volume (k tons) | 706 | 730 | | Avg. Selling Price/ton | $309 | $290 | - AN sales volumes were similar in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024[38](index=38&type=chunk) - Adjusted gross margin per ton for AN increased due to higher average selling prices, which were partially offset by higher natural gas costs[38](index=38&type=chunk) [Other Segment](index=11&type=section&id=Other%20Segment) The Other segment's net sales were $258 million in H1 2025, comparable to prior year, with lower sales volumes offset by higher average selling prices, maintaining a similar adjusted gross margin per ton Other Segment Performance (1H 2025 vs 1H 2024) | Metric | 1H 2025 | 1H 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $258M | $255M | | Gross Margin | $100M | $104M | | Sales Volume (k tons) | 996 | 1,070 | | Avg. Selling Price/ton | $259 | $238 | - Sales volumes in the Other segment were lower in H1 2025 primarily due to decreased sales of nitric acid and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF)[41](index=41&type=chunk) - Adjusted gross margin per ton for the Other segment was similar in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024[41](index=41&type=chunk) [Shareholder Returns](index=4&type=section&id=Shareholder%20Returns) [Share Repurchase Programs](index=4&type=section&id=Share%20Repurchase%20Programs) The company repurchased 8.2 million shares for $636 million in H1 2025, with $425 million remaining under the current program, and a new $2 billion program authorized through December 2029 Share Repurchases in 2025 | Period | Shares Repurchased | Cost | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Q2 2025 | 2.8 million | $202 million | | 1H 2025 | 8.2 million | $636 million | - As of June 30, 2025, approximately **$425 million** remains under the current share repurchase program[17](index=17&type=chunk) - A new **$2 billion** share repurchase program has been authorized, effective from the completion of the current program through December 2029[18](index=18&type=chunk) [Dividends and Distributions](index=12&type=section&id=Dividends%20and%20Distributions) CF Industries approved a $175 million semi-annual distribution to CHS Inc. and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per common share, payable in August 2025 - A semi-annual distribution of **$175 million** was approved for payment to CHS Inc. on July 31, 2025[19](index=19&type=chunk) - A quarterly dividend of **$0.50 per common share** was declared, payable on August 29, 2025, to stockholders of record as of August 15, 2025[42](index=42&type=chunk) [Financial Statements and Reconciliations](index=14&type=section&id=Financial%20Statements%20and%20Reconciliations) [Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=14&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) For the first half of 2025, CF Industries reported net sales of $3.55 billion and net earnings of $698 million, or $4.20 per diluted share, reflecting growth from the prior year period Statement of Operations Summary (Six Months Ended June 30) | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $3,553M | $3,042M | | Gross Margin | $1,327M | $1,088M | | Operating Earnings | $1,103M | $941M | | Net Earnings Attributable to Common Stockholders | $698M | $614M | [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=15&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of June 30, 2025, the company's total assets were $13.75 billion, with cash and cash equivalents at $1.69 billion, and total equity increasing to $7.82 billion Balance Sheet Summary (As of June 30, 2025) | Category | June 30, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Current Assets | $2,676M | $2,520M | | Total Assets | $13,750M | $13,466M | | Total Current Liabilities | $830M | $818M | | Long-Term Debt | $2,973M | $2,971M | | Total Equity | $7,821M | $7,592M | [Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=16&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) For the first half of 2025, net cash from operating activities was $1.15 billion, while investing and financing activities used $368 million and $733 million respectively, resulting in a $72 million net increase in cash Cash Flow Summary (Six Months Ended June 30, 2025) | Category | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Net Cash from Operating Activities | $1,149M | | Net Cash used in Investing Activities | ($368M) | | Net Cash used in Financing Activities | ($733M) | | **Increase in Cash and Cash Equivalents** | **$72M** | [Non-GAAP Reconciliations](index=17&type=section&id=Non-GAAP%20Reconciliations) The company provided non-GAAP reconciliations, reporting free cash flow of $1.73 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2025, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.41 billion for the first half of 2025 - Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2025, was **$1.729 billion**, up from **$1.153 billion** for the same period ending in 2024[59](index=59&type=chunk) Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation Summary (Six Months Ended June 30) | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Earnings Attributable to Common Stockholders | $698M | $614M | | EBITDA | $1,374M | $1,240M | | Adjusted EBITDA | $1,405M | $1,211M |

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that CF Industries will report quarterly earnings of $2.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 0.9%, while revenues are expected to reach $1.73 billion, an increase of 10.2% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has not changed over the past 30 days, indicating that analysts have not revised their initial projections [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- Ammonia' at $449.34 million, a year-over-year increase of 9.9% [5]. - 'Net Sales- Granular Urea' is projected to reach $502.54 million, indicating a 10% increase from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Net Sales- UAN (urea ammonium nitrate)' is expected to be $518.90 million, reflecting a 9.2% year-over-year change [5]. Sales Volume Estimates - 'Net Sales- AN (ammonium nitrate)' is projected at $104.53 million, a 6.7% increase from the previous year [6]. - Total 'Tons of product sold' is expected to reach 4,904 thousand tons, up from 4,875 thousand tons reported in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Sales volume by product - Ammonia' is estimated at 1,027 thousand tons, compared to 979 thousand tons a year ago [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - UAN' is projected at 1,754 thousand tons, slightly up from 1,748 thousand tons reported last year [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - Granular Urea' is expected to be 1,232 thousand tons, down from 1,251 thousand tons in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Sales volume by product - AN' is estimated at 356 thousand tons, compared to 340 thousand tons reported last year [9]. Average Selling Price Estimates - The average selling price per ton for 'Ammonia' is expected to be $437.91, up from $418.00 a year ago [9]. - The consensus estimate for 'Average selling price per ton - UAN' stands at $298.50, compared to $272.00 last year [10]. Stock Performance - CF shares have decreased by 1.6% over the past month, contrasting with a 1% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [11].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for CF Industries despite higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. CF Industries Summary - Expected quarterly earnings for CF Industries are $2.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 0.9% [3]. - Projected revenues are $1.73 billion, representing a 10.3% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analyst expectations [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for CF is higher than the consensus, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +10.03%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [11]. - CF has a history of surpassing consensus EPS estimates, achieving this in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +25.85% in the last reported quarter [12][13]. Industry Context - In the Zacks Fertilizers industry, Mosaic is expected to report earnings of $0.67 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 24.1% [17]. - Mosaic's projected revenue is $3.13 billion, up 11.1% from the previous year [17]. - Mosaic also has an Earnings ESP of +10.45%, suggesting a likely earnings beat, although it has only surpassed EPS estimates once in the last four quarters [18].

Group 1 - CF Industries holds a dominant position as a fertilizer provider in the US, which exposes the company to fluctuations in commodity prices [1] - The company has established effective infrastructure and strategic operations to mitigate the impact of commodity price volatility and maintain flexibility [1] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes a data-oriented approach with over 20 years of investment experience across various asset classes, focusing on medium-term investment opportunities [1]

As the largest producer of ammonia on the planet and with exposure to hydrogen, carbon sequestration, and more, CF Industries (NYSE: CF ) is poised to benefit from several long-term trends. With access to low-cost natural gas, an As of 2025, I've got over 10 years of researching companies. In total, throughout my investing life, I estimate that I researched (in depth) well over 1000 companies, from commodities like oil, natural gas, gold and copper to tech like Google or Nokia and many emerging market stock ...

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) shares have increased by 28% over the past three months, outperforming the industry's 18.9% rise and the S&P 500's approximately 15.7% increase during the same period [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - CF Industries is benefiting from strong global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by robust agricultural activity and recovery in industrial demand post-pandemic [3][4]. - The company projects favorable global supply-demand dynamics for nitrogen in the near term, supported by a low global corn stocks-to-use ratio and weak production economics in Europe [4][5]. - In North America, strong nitrogen demand is anticipated during the spring planting season, with an expected increase in corn acreage by 2025 due to higher returns compared to soybeans [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - CF Industries generated $586 million in net cash from operating activities in the first quarter, marking a 32% increase year-over-year [6]. - The company repurchased 5.4 million shares for $434 million in the first quarter, with approximately $630 million remaining under the existing $3 billion share buyback program [6]. - A new $2 billion share repurchase program has been approved by the board, set to run through 2029 [6]. Group 3: Revenue Growth - Rising nitrogen prices have led to a nearly 13% year-over-year increase in net sales, reaching $1,663 million in the first quarter [7][10]. - The average selling prices for most core products increased due to higher global energy costs, which raised market-clearing prices to meet global demand [10].

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has initiated the carbon dioxide dehydration and compression facility at its Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana, marking a significant advancement in its decarbonization efforts [1][8] - The facility is designed to enable the transportation and permanent geological sequestration of up to 2 million metric tons of CO2 annually, which would otherwise contribute to atmospheric emissions [2][8] - ExxonMobil, CF's partner in carbon capture and sequestration, plans to establish a permanent storage facility, starting with the Rose CCS project, which has received a draft permit from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [3] Company Developments - The Donaldsonville facility's start-up is a historic milestone for CF Industries, allowing the company to produce approximately 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia each year and qualify for tax credits under Section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Code [4][8] - CF's stock has increased by 36.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry average rise of 28.7% [6] Industry Context - CF Industries currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), while other companies in the Basic Materials sector, such as Royal Gold, Inc. and Coeur Mining, Inc., have higher rankings, indicating stronger buy signals [7]

Group 1 - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. held an Investor Day Conference Call on June 24, 2025, featuring key executives including the CEO and CFO [1] - The event included presentations and discussions aimed at providing insights into the company's strategic direction and financial performance [2] - The company emphasized the importance of forward-looking statements and the inherent risks and uncertainties associated with them [3]

Financial Performance & Capital Allocation - The company's Q1 2025 LTM Adjusted EBITDA was $2469 million[137] - The company's Q1 2025 LTM Free Cash Flow was $1567 million[137] - The company's Q1 2025 LTM FCF/Adj EBITDA conversion was 63%[137] - From 2017 to Q1 2025, the company returned $5880 million to shareholders[139] - The company has share repurchase authorizations through 2029[40] Competitive Advantages & Market Position - The company is the world's largest ammonia producer[102] - North America has long-term sustainable structural advantages, including access to low-cost natural gas and import-dependent, highly productive agriculture[50, 51] - The company's North American production network has approximately 20 million product tons of annual capacity[57] - Net importers require approximately 55 million metric tons of urea annually[70] Growth Initiatives & Decarbonization - The company is investing in the Blue Point JV, with an estimated CF contribution of approximately $2 billion[40, 127] - The company targets a 37% reduction in Scope 1 CO2 intensity[113] - Decarbonization efforts are projected to provide approximately $200 million in EBITDA annually[166]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries (CF) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in a company's earnings picture, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate reflecting EPS estimates from sell-side analysts [1][2]. - The correlation between earnings estimate revisions and stock price movements is strong, with institutional investors using these estimates to determine fair value [4][6]. - For CF, the recent increase in earnings estimates suggests an improvement in the company's underlying business, likely leading to higher stock prices [5][10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions for CF - CF is projected to earn $6.82 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, showing no year-over-year change [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF has increased by 10%, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of CF to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [9][10].