Group 1 - CF Industries reported quarterly earnings of $1.89 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.49 per share, and showing an increase from $1.49 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 26.85% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.52 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.93%, although this is a decrease from year-ago revenues of $1.57 billion [2] - CF Industries has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters and topped consensus revenue estimates two times in the same period [2] Group 2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 2.5% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 4.2% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.39 on revenues of $1.47 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $5.83 on revenues of $5.96 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Fertilizers industry is currently in the top 16% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, CF Industries reported net earnings of $1.22 billion, or $6.74 per diluted share, compared to $1.53 billion, or $7.87 per diluted share in 2023[4]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $2.28 billion, down from $2.76 billion in 2023, while EBITDA was $2.33 billion compared to $2.71 billion in the previous year[4]. - Net sales for 2024 were $5.94 billion, a decrease from $6.63 billion in 2023, with average selling prices lower due to reduced global energy costs[5]. - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $1,218 million, a decrease of 20.1% from $1,525 million in 2023[25]. - Free cash flow for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $1,445 million, compared to $1,799 million in 2023, indicating a decrease of 20%[58]. - Operating earnings for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $1,746 million, down from $2,230 million in 2023, a decline of 22%[50]. - The company reported total adjustments affecting comparability of results for the three months ended December 31, 2024, amounting to $(20) million, compared to $36 million in 2023[67]. Sales and Production - Gross ammonia production for 2024 was approximately 9.8 million tons, an increase from 9.5 million tons in 2023, with expectations of around 10 million tons in 2025[3]. - Ammonia sales volume for 2024 increased to 4,085,000 tons, up from 3,546,000 tons in 2023, due to the acquisition of the Waggaman ammonia production facility[28]. - UAN sales volume for 2024 was 6,753,000 tons, slightly down from 6,852,000 tons in 2023, indicating stable demand[28]. - Sales volume by product tons for the year ended December 31, 2024, was 18,943,000 tons, down from 19,130,000 tons in 2023, a decrease of 1.0%[64]. Pricing and Costs - The average cost of natural gas in 2024 was $2.40 per MMBtu, significantly lower than $3.67 per MMBtu in 2023, contributing to reduced cost of sales[6]. - Average selling price per product ton for ammonia was $425 in 2024, down from $473 in 2023, reflecting lower global energy costs[27]. - Granular urea net sales for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $1,600 million, a decrease of 12.3% from $1,823 million in 2023[30]. - Adjusted gross margin for granular urea was $949 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $1,087 million in 2023, with an adjusted gross margin percentage of 59.3%[30]. - The company reported a decrease in average selling prices across segments due to lower global energy costs impacting market prices[31]. Margins - Gross margin for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $2,056 million, down 19.2% from $2,545 million in 2023, with a gross margin percentage of 34.6% compared to 38.4%[25]. - Adjusted gross margin for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $867 million, representing 51.7% of net sales, compared to $1,094 million and 52.9% in 2023[33]. - Gross margin for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $609 million, down from $817 million in 2023, resulting in a gross margin percentage of 36.3% compared to 39.5%[33]. Shareholder Returns - CF Industries returned $1.9 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2024, repurchasing 18.8 million shares for $1.51 billion[1][11]. - The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per common share, payable on February 28, 2025[41]. Future Outlook and Investments - Management expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain constructive in the near term, with global nitrogen demand growth projected at approximately 1.5% per year[16]. - CF Industries anticipates capital expenditures for 2025 to be approximately $500-550 million, following $518 million in 2024[10]. - The company completed a FEED study for a new ATR ammonia production facility with carbon capture, estimating project costs at approximately $4.0 billion[17]. - The company is focused on developing low-carbon ammonia projects, which may involve significant risks and uncertainties related to market growth and regulatory requirements[49]. - CF Industries is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production network to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products[43]. Operational Updates - The commissioning of the 20-megawatt alkaline water electrolysis plant at the Donaldsonville Complex was suspended due to an issue, with plans to resume once resolved[19][20]. - The company plans to discuss its full year and fourth quarter 2024 results in a conference call on February 20, 2025[42]. Quarterly Performance - Net sales for the three months ended December 31, 2024, were $1,524 million, a decrease of 3.0% compared to $1,571 million in the same period of 2023[25]. - Gross margin increased to $524 million in Q4 2024, compared to $501 million in Q4 2023, reflecting improved operational efficiency[50]. - For the three months ended December 31, 2024, net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $328 million, compared to $274 million for the same period in 2023, representing a 19.7% increase[66]. - EBITDA for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $582 million, compared to $556 million in 2023, indicating an increase of 4.7%[64].

Core Insights - CF Industries is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 37.70% [1][2] Earnings Performance - In the most recent quarter, CF Industries reported earnings of $1.55 per share against an expectation of $1.05, resulting in a surprise of 47.62% [2] - For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $1.80 per share, while the actual earnings were $2.30 per share, leading to a surprise of 27.78% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for CF Industries have been trending upwards, with a positive Earnings ESP of +1.25%, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [3][6] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that stocks with this combination beat estimates nearly 70% of the time [4][6] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions, which are often more accurate [5] - It is crucial for investors to check a company's Earnings ESP prior to quarterly releases to enhance the chances of successful predictions [8]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.49 per share, indicating no change from the previous year, with revenues projected at $1.47 billion, reflecting a 6.7% decline year-over-year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 7.7%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are strongly correlated with short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Projections - The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales- Ammonia' is $451.17 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 8.9% [5]. - 'Net Sales- Granular Urea' is estimated at $359.17 million, reflecting an 8.4% decrease from the previous year [5]. - 'Net Sales- UAN (urea ammonium nitrate)' is projected at $408.57 million, indicating a 2.3% decline year-over-year [5]. - 'Net Sales- AN (ammonium nitrate)' is expected to reach $105.85 million, with an 11.8% decrease compared to the previous year [6]. Sales Volume Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Sales volume by product - UAN' at 1,806.32 KTon, slightly down from 1,812 KTon reported last year [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - Granular Urea' is forecasted to be 1,076.33 KTon, up from 1,038 KTon in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - Ammonia' is projected at 1,078.15 KTon, marginally higher than the 1,077 KTon reported last year [8]. - Total 'Tons of product sold' is expected to be 4,920.86 KTon, compared to 4,912 KTon in the previous year [8]. Average Selling Price Estimates - The average selling price per ton for 'Ammonia' is expected to be $417.62, down from $460 year-over-year [6]. - The average selling price per ton for 'UAN' is projected at $226.48, compared to $231 last year [9]. - The average selling price per ton for 'Granular Urea' is estimated at $334.48, down from $378 in the same quarter last year [9]. - The average selling price per ton for 'AN' is expected to be $265.09, compared to $290 last year [10]. Stock Performance - CF Industries shares have shown a return of -15.8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.9% change [10].

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 19, with indications of a potential earnings beat due to strong nitrogen fertilizer demand and lower natural gas costs, despite lower year-over-year selling prices impacting performance [1][2][5]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - CF Industries has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, with an average earnings surprise of 10.2% over the trailing four quarters [2]. - The Earnings ESP for CF is +1.25%, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter currently at $1.49 [5]. Group 2: Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries' fourth-quarter total sales is $1,466.4 million, reflecting a decline of approximately 6.7% year over year [7]. - Estimated sales for the Ammonia segment are $447.5 million, indicating a 9.6% decline year over year [9]. - The Granular Urea segment is estimated at $355.6 million, suggesting a decrease of 9.3% [9]. - Sales for the Urea Ammonium Nitrate Solution segment are projected at $369.9 million, indicating an 11.5% decline year over year [10]. - Total sales for the Ammonium Nitrate segment are estimated at $95.5 million, reflecting a decline of 20.4% year over year [10]. Group 3: Market Factors - CF Industries is expected to benefit from higher global demand for nitrogen fertilizers driven by strong agricultural demand, with healthy nitrogen demand anticipated in the December quarter [11]. - Lower natural gas prices are expected to reduce the company's cost of sales, with the average cost of natural gas falling to $2.10 per MMBtu from $2.54 per MMBtu year over year [12]. - While CF experienced higher selling prices in the third quarter due to increased ammonia prices from lower global supply, weaker year-over-year prices are expected to impact results in the fourth quarter [13].

CF Industries (CF) is expected to deliver flat earnings compared to the year-ago quarter on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on ...

CF Industries (NYSE: CF ) is the largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer in the world, with six facilities in the United States, two in Canada, and one in the UK. It can be a volatile business, with a variety of cross-currentsAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CF either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no ...

Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering CF Industries (CF) , which belongs to the Zacks Fertilizers industry.When looking at the last two reports, this fertilizer maker has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 37.70%, on average, in the last two quarters.For the last reported quarter, CF came out with earnings of $1.55 per share versus the Z ...

About this content About Josh Lamb After graduating from the University of Kent in the summer of 2022 with a degree in History, Josh joined Proactive later that year as a journalist in the UK editorial team. Josh has reported on a range of areas whilst at Proactive, including energy companies during a time of global crisis, aviation and airlines as the sector recovers from the pandemic, as well as covering economic, social and governance issues. Read more About the publisher Proactive financial news and ...

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (CF) shares have popped 29.4% over the past six months. The company has also outperformed the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 1.5% rise over the same time frame. CF has also topped the S&P 500’s roughly 7.3% rise over the same period.Let’s take a look into the factors that are driving this fertilizer maker. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCF Stock Gains on Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Lower Gas CostsCF Industries benefits from the rising global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, ...