Financial Performance Highlights - Q3 2025 net earnings reached $353 million[9] - Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $667 million[10], while the last twelve months (LTM) adjusted EBITDA totaled $26 billion[11] - The company generated $17 billion in cash from operations and $17 billion in free cash flow over the last twelve months[11] - For the first nine months of 2025, net earnings amounted to $11 billion and adjusted EBITDA reached $21 billion[11] Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns - Approximately $20 billion has been authorized for share repurchases through 2029[12] - Around $13 billion was returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in the first nine months of 2025[16] Operational Excellence and Production - The company achieved a capacity utilization rate of 97% for the first nine months of 2025[13] - Gross ammonia production in 2025 is expected to be approximately 10 million tons[16] Strategic Initiatives and Outlook - The company is on track to reduce CO2-e emissions per ton of product by 25% by 2030[16] - Strategic initiatives are expected to contribute 20% to approximately $3 billion in EBITDA and 33% to approximately $2 billion in free cash flow from the current mid-cycle to the expected 2030 mid-cycle[16] Market Dynamics - Global supply-demand balance is expected to tighten as demand outpaces global nitrogen capacity growth[16]

Core Insights - CF Industries reported a revenue of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.1% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $2.19, up from $1.55 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of +6.31% compared to the consensus estimate of $2.06 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue of $1.66 billion was slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by -0.34% [1] - CF Industries' stock has returned -8.1% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +1% [3] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3] Sales Volume and Pricing - Ammonia sales volume was 1,092 KTon, exceeding the average estimate of 994.59 KTon [4] - Total product sold was 4,504 KTon, below the average estimate of 4,648.64 KTon [4] - Granular Urea sales volume was 939 KTon, lower than the estimated 1,103.77 KTon [4] - UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) sales volume was 1,564 KTon, below the estimate of 1,665.21 KTon [4] Net Sales Performance - Net Sales for Ammonia reached $457 million, surpassing the average estimate of $387.62 million, representing a year-over-year increase of +29.5% [4] - Granular Urea net sales were $423 million, slightly below the estimate of $459.23 million, with a +9% year-over-year change [4] - UAN net sales were $517 million, exceeding the estimate of $498.46 million, reflecting a +27.3% year-over-year increase [4] - Ammonium Nitrate (AN) net sales were $122 million, above the estimate of $106.84 million, with a +15.1% year-over-year change [4] - Other net sales reached $140 million, compared to the average estimate of $128.84 million, representing a +19.7% year-over-year increase [4]

分组1 - CF Industries reported quarterly earnings of $2.19 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.06 per share, and up from $1.55 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +6.31% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, which was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.34%, but an increase from $1.37 billion year-over-year [2] - CF has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters and topped consensus revenue estimates three times during the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 0.9% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 15.1% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, with current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter at $2.12 on revenues of $1.71 billion, and $8.73 on revenues of $6.98 billion for the current fiscal year [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Fertilizers sector is currently in the bottom 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]

Financial Performance - CF Industries reported net earnings of $1.05 billion for the first nine months of 2025, or $6.39 per diluted share, compared to $890 million, or $4.86 per diluted share in the same period of 2024[6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2025 was $2.07 billion, up from $1.72 billion in the first nine months of 2024[6]. - Net sales for the first nine months of 2025 were $5.21 billion, an increase from $4.41 billion in the same period of 2024, driven by higher average selling prices and increased sales volumes[7]. - Net sales for the three months ended September 30, 2025, increased to $1,659 million, up 21.1% from $1,370 million in 2024[30]. - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders for the three months ended September 30, 2025, rose to $353 million, a 27.8% increase compared to $276 million in 2024[30]. - Operating earnings for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $1,683 million, a 29% increase from $1,305 million in the same period of 2024[54]. - For the twelve months ended September 30, 2025, net cash provided by operating activities was $2,633 million, an increase from $2,331 million in 2024, resulting in a free cash flow of $1,699 million compared to $1,514 million in the previous year[62]. Production and Sales Volumes - Gross ammonia production for the first nine months of 2025 was approximately 7.6 million tons, compared to 7.2 million tons in the same period of 2024[4]. - Sales volume of ammonia for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased to 3,325,000 tons, up from 2,845,000 tons in 2024[33]. - Sales volume by product tons for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was 4,504,000 tons, a decrease from 4,797,000 tons in 2024, while for the nine months, it increased to 14,529,000 tons from 14,196,000 tons[67]. Pricing and Margins - Average selling price per product ton for granular urea increased to $450 in Q3 2025, up 36.4% from $330 in Q3 2024[35]. - Adjusted gross margin for granular urea segment was $271 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $233 million in 2024, reflecting a 16.3% increase[35]. - Gross margin for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,959 million, representing a 28.0% increase from $1,532 million in 2024[30]. - Gross margin for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $230 million, representing a gross margin percentage of 44.5%, compared to 33.0% in 2024[38]. - Adjusted gross margin for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $289 million, or 55.9% of net sales, compared to 50.2% in 2024[38]. Costs and Expenses - The average cost of natural gas in the first nine months of 2025 was $3.34 per MMBtu, up from $2.38 per MMBtu in the first nine months of 2024[8]. - Average daily market price of natural gas at the Henry Hub for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $3.48 per MMBtu, compared to $2.19 per MMBtu in 2024[30]. - Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $724 million, significantly higher than $321 million in 2024[30]. - The company incurred capital expenditures of $347 million in Q3 2025, compared to $139 million in Q3 2024[59]. Shareholder Returns and Dividends - CF Industries completed a $3 billion share repurchase program and initiated a new $2 billion program in October 2025[1]. - CF Industries declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per common share, payable on November 28, 2025[44]. Future Outlook and Projects - The company expects full-year 2025 gross ammonia production to be approximately 10 million tons[4]. - CF Industries anticipates continued strong global nitrogen demand through 2025 and into 2026, particularly from India and Brazil[27]. - The Blue Point joint venture is set to construct a low-carbon ammonia production facility, with civil construction expected to start in 2026[24]. - The company is focused on completing projects at its Blue Point Complex, including a low-carbon ammonia production facility, which may exceed current capital expenditure estimates[49]. - CF Industries is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production network to support the transition to clean energy[46]. Conference and Communication - The company plans to hold a conference call on November 6, 2025, to discuss its third quarter and nine-month results[45].

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is a leading global manufacturer of nitrogen-based fertilizers, with upcoming quarterly earnings expected to provide insights into its performance and future outlook [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the previous quarter, CF Industries reported earnings of $2.37 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.35, and achieved revenue of $1.89 billion, surpassing the expected $1.73 billion, marking a 20.2% increase in quarterly revenue year-over-year [2][6]. - The company has a return on equity of 17.10% and a net margin of 20.19%, indicating strong financial performance [2][6]. Market Expectations - Analysts predict CF Industries will report earnings of $1.74 per share and revenue of approximately $1.59 billion for the upcoming quarter [1][6]. - The market is closely monitoring whether the company will exceed these expectations, as doing so could lead to a rise in stock price, while failing to meet them may result in a decline [3]. Valuation Metrics - CF Industries has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 10.58, a price-to-sales ratio of about 2.12, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of around 2.38, reflecting its valuation relative to earnings and sales [4]. - The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 6.13, and the earnings yield is approximately 9.45%, indicating the company's cash flow generation and return on investment for shareholders [5]. - The debt-to-equity ratio stands at about 0.67, and the current ratio is approximately 3.22, suggesting a balanced approach to financing and strong short-term liquidity [5].

Core Insights - CF Industries has seen significant changes in institutional investor positions, with notable increases in holdings by several hedge funds during the second quarter [1] - Analyst ratings for CF Industries have been mixed, with some brokerages lowering their price targets while others maintain a "hold" rating [2] - The company's stock has shown a slight increase, with a current market capitalization of $13.50 billion and a PE ratio of 10.88 [3] - CF Industries reported strong quarterly earnings, exceeding revenue expectations and showing a year-over-year revenue increase of 20.2% [4] - A quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share has been announced, reflecting a 2.4% dividend yield [5] Institutional Investor Activity - Brighton Jones LLC acquired a new stake worth approximately $469,000 in CF Industries during the second quarter [1] - Focus Partners Advisor Solutions LLC increased its holdings by 57.9%, now owning shares worth $558,000 after purchasing an additional 2,226 shares [1] - AlphaQuest LLC significantly boosted its holdings by 548.6%, now owning shares valued at $1,312,000 after acquiring 12,064 additional shares [1] - 93.06% of CF Industries' stock is owned by institutional investors [1] Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs reduced its price target from $96.00 to $94.00, maintaining a "neutral" rating [2] - BNP Paribas downgraded the stock from "strong-buy" to "hold" [2] - HSBC lowered its target price from $104.00 to $95.00, also rating it as "hold" [2] - The consensus rating for CF Industries is "Hold" with a target price of $97.54 [2] Financial Performance - CF Industries reported earnings of $2.37 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $2.35 by $0.02 [4] - The company achieved revenue of $1.89 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.73 billion [4] - The net margin for the quarter was 20.19%, with a return on equity of 17.10% [4] - Analysts forecast earnings per share of 5.83 for the current year [4] Dividend Announcement - A quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share will be paid on November 28th, with a record date of November 14th [5] - This dividend represents an annualized amount of $2.00 and a yield of 2.4% [5] - The current dividend payout ratio stands at 26.11% [5] Company Overview - CF Industries engages in the manufacture and sale of hydrogen and nitrogen products for various industrial applications [7]

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is set to announce its fiscal Q3 earnings for 2025 on November 5, with a market cap of $13.5 billion [1] - Analysts project a profit of $1.86 per share for Q3 2025, reflecting a 20% increase from $1.55 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For fiscal 2025, the expected profit is $8.23 per share, a 22.1% rise from $6.74 per share in fiscal 2024, but a decline of 16.4% to $6.88 is anticipated in fiscal 2026 [3] Financial Performance - CF Industries reported a 20.2% year-over-year increase in net sales to $1.9 billion in Q2, exceeding consensus estimates by 9.2% [5] - The company's EPS for Q2 grew 3% from the previous year to $2.37, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.35 [5] Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Over the past 52 weeks, CF's stock has declined by 1.1%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's 15.1% increase but outperforming the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund's 8.6% drop [4] - The overall analyst rating for CF is "Hold," with 3 analysts recommending "Strong Buy," 13 suggesting "Hold," and 1 indicating "Moderate Sell" [6] - The mean price target for CF is $93.53, suggesting a potential upside of 12.3% from current levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is well-positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, with a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters, averaging a surprise of 13.35% [1] Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, CF Industries reported earnings of $2.37 per share, exceeding the expected $2.35 per share, resulting in a surprise of 0.85% [2] - In the previous quarter, the company reported $1.85 per share against a consensus estimate of $1.47 per share, achieving a surprise of 25.85% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Estimates for CF Industries have been trending higher, influenced by its history of earnings surprises [5] - The stock currently has a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +14.50%, indicating increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat [8] Statistical Insights - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7]

Core Insights - The third quarter performance of the selected stocks was strong, with 14 out of 18 stocks finishing in positive territory, and 12 of those achieving double-digit gains [2][3] - Notably, four stocks have doubled in value year-to-date, while 13 stocks have recorded double-digit gains [2] - The report provides a ranking of the 18 stocks based on their year-to-date returns and offers insights into their outlook for the fourth quarter [2] Stock Performance Summary - **Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)**: Q3 gain of 42.68%, YTD return of 4.03% [3] - **Bloom Energy (BE)**: Exceptional Q3 gain of 253.55%, YTD return of 309.14% [3] - **Boeing (BA)**: Q3 gain of 3.01%, YTD return of 23.12% [3] - **Carvana (CVNA)**: Q3 gain of 11.95%, YTD return of 90.70% [3] - **CF Industries (CF)**: Q3 loss of 2.50%, YTD return of 6.03% [3] - **Coinbase Global (COIN)**: Q3 loss of 3.71%, YTD return of 50.98% [3] - **Dell Technologies (DELL)**: Q3 gain of 15.64%, YTD return of 26.09% [3] - **Deutsche Bank (DB)**: Q3 gain of 20.94%, YTD return of 108.91% [3] - **Ezcorp (EZPW)**: Q3 gain of 37.18%, YTD return of 49.39% [3] - **LendingClub (LC)**: Q3 gain of 26.27%, YTD return of -6.38% [3] - **Nebius Group (NBIS)**: Q3 gain of 102.91%, YTD return of 356.10% [3] - **Opera (OPRA)**: Q3 gain of 9.21%, YTD return of -2.85% [3] - **Rocket Lab (RKLB)**: Q3 gain of 33.94%, YTD return of 108.99% [3] - **Roku (ROKU)**: Q3 gain of 13.93%, YTD return of 39.22% [3] - **Sea (SE)**: Q3 gain of 11.75%, YTD return of 73.99% [3] - **SEI Investments (SEIC)**: Q3 loss of 5.58%, YTD return of 3.18% [3] - **SoFi Technologies (SOFI)**: Q3 gain of 45.09%, YTD return of 65.62% [3] - **STMicroelectronics NV (STM)**: Q3 loss of 7.07%, YTD return of 16.54% [3] - **Total Gain**: Cumulative YTD return of 1322.80% across all stocks [3] Notable Stock Insights - **Nebius Group NV (NBIS)**: Strong performance in the AI sector, with 10% of the stock's float sold short [3] - **Bloom Energy Inc (BE)**: Benefiting from the data center boom, with a significant Q3 gain [4] - **Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB)**: Showing bullish potential despite a recent stock sale [5] - **Deutsche Bank AG (DB)**: A solid performer in the banking sector, demonstrating value investing characteristics [5] - **Carvana Co (CVNA)**: Positive momentum following earnings, with decreasing short interest [6] - **Sea Limited (SE)**: Consistent performance with three consecutive profitable quarters [6] - **SoFi Technologies (SOFI)**: Testing support levels, with potential for further gains [7] - **Coinbase Global Inc (COIN)**: Continues to face skepticism from analysts despite its crypto focus [8] - **Ezcorp Inc (EZPW)**: Positive bounce off its 200-day moving average, indicating potential growth [8] - **Roku Inc (ROKU)**: Reinventing itself after being oversold [9] - **Dell Technologies Inc (DELL)**: Monitoring external factors like chip imports and tariffs [9] - **Boeing Co (BA)**: Currently in a channel of higher highs, indicating potential for recovery [9] - **STMicroelectronics NV (STM)**: Struggling to recover from a post-earnings gap [10] - **CF Industries (CF)**: Upcoming earnings report to be closely watched [10] - **Beam Therapeutics Inc (BEAM)**: Trading at its highest level since March, showing signs of recovery [10] - **SEI Investments Co (SEIC)**: Facing downward pressure, testing its 200-day moving average [10] - **Opera Ltd (OPRA)**: Struggling to capitalize on previous positive ratings [11] - **LendingClub Corp (LC)**: Despite being the worst performer, still showing resilience with a recent quarterly gain [11] Market Sentiment - Several stocks, including BEAM, COIN, DELL, NBIS, ROKU, and STM, have high Relative Strength Indexes, indicating potential overbought conditions [12] - Despite the strong performance, there are still bullish cases to be made for all 18 stocks listed [12]

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has shipped 23,500 metric tons of certified low-carbon ammonia from its Donaldsonville, LA facility to Trafigura for supply to Envalior in Belgium for low-carbon caprolactam production [1][8] - The ammonia is certified under the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity (VACI) Program, which ensures a significantly lower carbon footprint compared to conventional ammonia production [2] - This shipment marks CF Industries' first low-carbon premium offering to Europe, establishing a low-carbon ammonia supply chain ahead of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism [3] Environmental Initiatives - CF Industries' Donaldsonville Complex features a carbon capture and storage project capable of sequestering up to 2 million metric tons of CO2 annually, supporting the production of VACI-certified low-carbon ammonia [4] - The facility is expected to produce 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year, which can also be upgraded into low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer products [4] Market Performance - CF Industries' shares have increased by 8.5% over the past year, while the industry has seen a rise of 27.2% [6] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials sector including Contango Ore, Inc. (CTGO), Methanex Corporation (MEOH), and The Mosaic Company (MOS) [7]