Core Insights - The article discusses the best American stocks for long-term investment, emphasizing the shift in investor strategies towards diversification and away from traditional portfolios [1][2] Long-term Investment Trends - A significant portion of investors, approximately 60%, believe that long-term discipline is essential in today's market, with 70% expressing greater patience for investment growth compared to their initial investing experiences [2] - The trend towards dividend investing aligns with long-term strategies, as 80.9% of S&P 500 companies pay dividends, with an average yield of 1.93% among Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents [3] Methodology for Stock Selection - The article outlines a methodology for selecting US companies that provide regular dividends, focusing on those with over 9% revenue growth over five years and positive analyst sentiment, resulting in a list of 14 hedge fund-favored companies [6][7] Company Highlights - **Atmos Energy Corporation (NYSE:ATO)**: - Holds 32 hedge fund positions and has a 5-year revenue growth of 9.92% - Recently increased its quarterly dividend by 15%, marking 41 consecutive years of dividend growth, with capital expenditures of $3.6 billion in FY25, primarily for safety and reliability [8][10][11] - **CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)**: - Holds 41 hedge fund positions and boasts a 5-year revenue growth of 15.96% - Focused on decarbonizing production with low-carbon ammonia, reporting a trailing twelve-month operating cash flow of $2.63 billion and free cash flow of $1.7 billion [12][13][14] - **Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FANG)**: - Holds 42 hedge fund positions with a remarkable 5-year revenue growth of 36.06% - Benefits from low-cost production in the Permian Basin, generating 15% higher free cash flow per share despite a 14% decline in oil prices, and is nearing its $1.5 billion net debt target [15][17][18]

Group 1 - The event is focused on the agricultural space, highlighting the importance of agriculture and its close ties to the speaker's personal background [1] - The discussion includes the presence of the CF team, indicating a collaborative effort and long-standing relationship with the company over 25 years [1] - The timing of the event is set early in the morning, reflecting the nature of the agricultural industry where farmers typically start their day early [1] Group 2 - There are required disclosures regarding Goldman Sachs' relationships with companies discussed, including investment banking relationships and ownership stakes [2] - The firm is prepared to provide disclosures upon request, ensuring transparency in their communications with clients [2] - Recent reports containing these disclosures are available on the firm's client portal, emphasizing the importance of accessibility to information for clients [2]

Summary of CF Industries 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CF Industries (NYSE: CF) - **Industry**: Fertilizer and Agricultural Products Key Points Market Dynamics - The fertilizer market is characterized by global competition and seasonal demand, with most countries having one application per year [3][4] - The year 2025 saw significant surprises affecting supply and demand, primarily due to geopolitical events such as the war impacting production [5][6] - A lack of supply was noted, with approximately 2 million tons removed from the market due to the war and other production issues [6][11] - Urea prices peaked at nearly $500 per ton in June 2025, driven by supply constraints and high demand from regions like India and Brazil [7][11] Farmer Economics - Farmer economics have been under pressure, but the situation is not dire enough to warrant extreme measures like Farm Aid [13][14] - Revenue guarantee programs and crop insurance have helped maintain cash flow for farmers, particularly in the Midwest [15][16] - The corn-soybean ratio and crop planting decisions are critical for future demand, with corn expected to remain a favored crop [17][19] Supply and Demand Outlook - The market is entering 2026 with a more moderated pricing environment, with ammonia and urea prices around $360 per ton [11][12] - Inventory levels are low, with only 30%-50% of spring fertilizer needs purchased by retailers, compared to the usual 70% [28][30] - A potential drop of 5-6 million acres of corn could act as a speed bump for demand, but the overall market position remains strong [24][25] Global Supply Chain Challenges - Unplanned supply disruptions have been significant in 2025, with various global production issues affecting supply [31][32] - The resolution of the Ukraine-Russia conflict could potentially alter the global supply-demand balance for nitrogen, but the extent of recovery remains uncertain [34][36] Low-Carbon Initiatives - CF Industries is actively pursuing low-carbon ammonia production, with significant interest from Asian and European markets [52][54] - The company has established contracts and partnerships to ensure demand for low-carbon products as production ramps up [56][60] Capital Allocation Strategy - CF Industries plans to maintain disciplined capital allocation, focusing on investing in existing assets and returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks [77][78] - The company has repurchased over half of its shares since 2010, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value [78][82] Future Outlook - The fertilizer industry is expected to remain dynamic, with CF Industries well-positioned to adapt to changes and capitalize on opportunities [80][81] - The company does not plan to diversify away from nitrogen but remains open to exploring strategic opportunities within the agricultural sector [83][84] Additional Insights - The demand for nitrogen in India has seen a positive trend, with consistent tendering for imports [46][48] - North African markets are growing, with Morocco showing potential for increased demand for low-carbon products [50][51] - The competitive landscape for ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen remains fluid, with ammonia currently favored for shipping due to its versatility [62][64]

Core Points - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. will present at the Goldman Sachs Industrials & Materials Conference 2025 on December 4, 2025, at 8:00 am ET [1] - Investors can access the live conference webcast through the Investor Relations section of the company's website [1] - A replay of the webcast will be available for 180 days following the event [1]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is highlighted as a potentially undervalued stock in the nitrogen fertilizer sector, with strong fundamentals and a competitive position in the market [1][12]. Business Overview - CF Industries operates nitrogen manufacturing complexes in the U.S. and the U.K., benefiting from scale, low-cost natural gas, and export access [2]. - The company generates substantial free cash flow across cycles, despite fluctuations in fertilizer demand driven by crop prices and natural gas costs [2]. Financial Metrics - CF's intrinsic value to price (IV/P) ratio is 1.10, indicating that its intrinsic value is approximately 10% higher than its current market price, suggesting undervaluation [5]. - Key financial metrics include a market cap of approximately US$ 12.75 billion, an enterprise value estimated between US$ 18 billion and US$ 19 billion, and a free cash flow of about US$ 1.71 billion [6]. Revenue & Profitability - For the trailing twelve months (TTM), CF reported revenue of US$ 6.73 billion, operating income of US$ 2.09 billion, and a net income of US$ 1.38 billion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 20% [7]. - The company maintains double-digit margins and strong earnings despite a downturn from the 2022 fertilizer boom [7]. Balance Sheet Strength - CF's balance sheet shows cash and equivalents of approximately US$ 1.84 billion, total debt of about US$ 3.40 billion, and shareholders' equity of around US$ 4.85 billion, indicating manageable leverage and ample liquidity [8]. - The cash generation supports debt servicing, dividends, and buybacks, essential for its capital-intensive operations [8]. Capital Returns - CF has a dividend yield of approximately 2.5% and has repurchased about US$ 1.4 billion in shares over the TTM, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [10]. - The aggressive buyback strategy is a key driver of intrinsic value growth [10]. Investment Thesis - CF is positioned as a durable, cash-generating business with a competitive cost structure and strong free cash flow, trading at a discount to its intrinsic value [12]. - The company is seen as undervalued due to market assumptions of declining future profitability, despite its ability to compound capital at attractive rates [11][12]. Industry Context - Global nitrogen demand is structurally linked to population growth and food needs, providing a steady market for CF's products [15]. - North American gas cost advantages create a competitive moat for CF against higher-cost international producers [15].

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is recognized as one of the 15 Best Stocks to Buy for the Medium Term [1] - Wells Fargo has initiated coverage on CF Industries with an Overweight rating and a price target of $100, slightly below the previous target of $105 [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, CF Industries reported revenue of $1.66 billion, a 21.09% increase year-over-year, exceeding analysts' estimates by $4.41 million [3] - The company achieved net earnings of $353 million, or $2.19 per diluted share, with EBITDA at $671 million and adjusted EBITDA at $667 million [3] - CF completed its $3 billion share repurchase program authorized in 2022 and initiated a new $2 billion repurchase program in October 2025 [3] Production and Strategy - Gross ammonia production for the first nine months of 2025 was approximately 7.6 million tons, up from 7.2 million tons in the same period of 2024 [5] - Q3 production was about 2.4 million tons, consistent with the previous year [5] - The company anticipates full-year 2025 gross ammonia output to reach around 10 million tons [5] - CF Industries has made significant progress in its clean energy strategy, securing premium pricing for its first certified low-carbon ammonia cargoes and receiving 45Q tax credits [4] - Management indicated that financial returns from low-carbon ammonia and decarbonization investments remain strong for shareholders [4]

Core Insights - Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) are major players in the fertilizer industry, benefiting from strong agricultural market conditions and favorable farm economics, which are driving global fertilizer demand [1][30] - Both companies are experiencing robust demand for their products, with NTR seeing record potash sales and CF capitalizing on the growing demand for nitrogen fertilizers [5][12] Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) - NTR is experiencing healthy demand for crop nutrients, supported by cost-reduction actions and strategic acquisitions, alongside improved fertilizer prices [4] - The company anticipates record crop production in the U.S. and has raised its potash sales volume guidance for 2025 to 14-14.5 million tons due to higher global demand [5] - NTR is expanding its presence in Brazil and plans to use part of its free cash flow for growth investments, including acquisitions in its retail business [6] - Cost efficiency initiatives are expected to yield around $200 million in savings for 2025, with the company ahead of schedule on its cost-reduction goals [7] - NTR's operating cash flow surged 150% year-over-year to $1,030 million for the first nine months of 2025, driven by higher selling prices and sales volumes [8] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of 2025, with a healthy dividend yield of approximately 3.9% and a payout ratio of 57% [9] - NTR faces challenges from volatile input costs, particularly due to supply disruptions and rising prices for sulfur and natural gas [10] CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - CF is benefiting from strong global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, with industrial demand recovering post-pandemic [12] - The company expects robust nitrogen demand driven by high corn planting in the U.S. and strong demand for urea in Brazil and India [13] - The global nitrogen outlook remains positive, supported by strong demand and tight supply, with energy cost advantages favoring North American producers [14] - CF's revenues increased by approximately 21% year-over-year to around $1.66 billion in the third quarter, driven by higher nitrogen prices [15] - The company returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of 2025 and completed a $3 billion share repurchase program [16] - CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 2.6% with a payout ratio of 24% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 14.3% [17] - The company is facing headwinds from rising natural gas prices, which increased significantly in the first nine months of 2025 [18] Price Performance and Valuation - NTR's stock has increased by 25.7% year-to-date, while CF's stock has declined by 9%, compared to an 8% rise in the Zacks Fertilizers industry [19] - NTR is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.32, slightly above the industry average of 12.21 [20] - CF is trading at a lower forward earnings multiple of 10.79, indicating a more attractive valuation compared to NTR [21] Earnings Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTR's 2025 sales implies a year-over-year rise of 3.5%, with EPS expected to increase by 30.6% [26] - CF's 2025 sales and EPS estimates imply a year-over-year rise of 17.6% and 31.8%, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [27] Comparative Analysis - Both NTR and CF are benefiting from strong agricultural markets and improving fertilizer prices, while also facing rising input costs [11][30] - CF appears to have a slight edge over NTR due to its more attractive valuation and higher dividend growth rate, along with better earnings growth projections [30]

Group 1 - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities and technology [1] - The analyst has researched more than 1000 companies, focusing on metals and mining stocks, as well as other industries like consumer discretionary, REITs, and utilities [1] - The transition from a personal blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel has allowed the analyst to research hundreds of different companies [1]

Group 1 - The article does not provide any relevant content regarding company or industry insights [1]

Financial Performance - Net sales for Q3 2025 reached $1,659 million, a 21.1% increase from $1,370 million in Q3 2024[10] - Gross margin improved to $632 million in Q3 2025, up 42.5% from $444 million in Q3 2024[10] - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders increased to $353 million in Q3 2025, compared to $276 million in Q3 2024, representing a 27.9% growth[10] - Basic earnings per share rose to $2.19 in Q3 2025, up from $1.55 in Q3 2024, reflecting a 41.3% increase[10] - Net earnings for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $1,303 million, compared to $1,085 million for the same period in 2024, representing a 20% increase[20] - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,659 million, a 21.1% increase from $1,370 million in the same period of 2024[29] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue reached $5,212 million, up 18.1% from $4,412 million in the prior year[29] - Diluted net earnings per share attributable to common stockholders increased by $0.64 per share, or 41%, to $2.19 per share in the third quarter of 2025 compared to $1.55 per share in the third quarter of 2024[130] - The company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $1.05 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $890 million for the same period in 2024[131] Assets and Equity - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, were $14,203 million, an increase from $13,466 million at the end of 2024[14] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $1,838 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $1,614 million at the end of 2024[14] - Total stockholders' equity decreased slightly to $4,849 million as of September 30, 2025, from $4,985 million at the end of 2024[14] Cash Flow and Dividends - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $2,213 million, up from $1,851 million in 2024, indicating a 20% growth[20] - The company paid dividends of $248 million on common stock during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $278 million in 2024, a decrease of about 11%[20] - Dividends declared per common share remained stable at $0.50 for both Q3 2025 and Q3 2024[10] Costs and Expenses - The company reported a depreciation and amortization expense of $670 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $704 million in 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 5%[20] - Selling, general and administrative expenses rose by $10 million to $88 million in Q3 2025, attributed to higher incentive compensation[148] - Total other operating costs and expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $58 million, down from $82 million in 2024, a decrease of 29.3%[91] Segment Performance - The ammonia segment reported net sales of $457 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, a 29.5% increase from $353 million in 2024[87] - Net sales in the Granular Urea segment increased by $35 million, or 9%, to $423 million in Q3 2025 from $388 million in Q3 2024, driven by a 36% increase in average selling prices[194] - Net sales in the UAN segment increased by $111 million, or 27%, to $517 million in Q3 2025 from $406 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to a 46% increase in average selling prices[202] Natural Gas Costs - The cost of natural gas used for production increased by 41% to $2.96 per MMBtu in the third quarter of 2025 from $2.10 per MMBtu in the third quarter of 2024, resulting in a decrease in gross margin of $73 million[126] - The average daily market price of natural gas at Henry Hub was $3.03 per MMBtu in the third quarter of 2025, a 46% increase from $2.08 per MMBtu in the same quarter of 2024[126] Carbon Capture and Sustainability Initiatives - The company is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production network to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products, supporting its mission for sustainable energy[22] - The Donaldsonville complex's carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project is expected to produce up to approximately 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia annually, with a total project cost of approximately $200 million[98] - The Yazoo City CCS project is expected to commence in 2028, with an estimated cost of approximately $100 million, enabling the sequestration of up to 500,000 metric tons of CO2 annually[103] Debt and Financing - The company has a Revolving Credit Agreement with commitments of up to $750 million, maturing on September 4, 2030, with no outstanding borrowings as of September 30, 2025[59] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had unused borrowing capacity of $750 million under the Revolving Credit Agreement[61] - The fair value of long-term debt as of September 30, 2025, was $2.923 billion, slightly lower than the carrying amount of $2.974 billion[50] Share Repurchase Program - The company repurchased approximately 12.5 million shares for $1 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2025[82] - The 2022 Share Repurchase Program authorized up to $3 billion, completed in October 2025, with a new program of $2 billion commencing thereafter[80]