好 各位投资者和分析师和媒体朋友们大家好欢迎大家参加猛龙2024年的月底发布会下面我主要的介绍一下20年的财务表现全年回收整体的实际的收入是886.7亿同比下降了4.1的百分点 其中这里面量的下降是下降了9综合价格下降了1那么24年原来的价格和消费的需求下降给这个行业尤其是这些投入企业还是带来了很大的去扩充和捧捧的压力那么其中二季度的时候压力应该是最为突出除非去年中期的时候也跟大家沟通过因为到了去年春节后公司也在主动的去调节整份发货的节制和发货量 调整渠道库存所以从现在来看我们整个二老市场上库存的压力仍然是非常小的虽然对销量的影响比较大但是我们可以看得到就是过去的上半年主动去调整了下半年的库存健康度是提升的整个的价格盘也好还是二老实物环境也好还是略有所改善 由于年内原奶价格的下降和整个品质结构的改善我们可以看得到毛利率从23年的37.2%提升到39.6%提升了2.4%那么经过利用率的同步的话去扩张的是190个基点增长到了8.2%那么8.2%应该是美国历史上最好的经验利用水平但是在这里面我要特点的话需要说的 这个数据的背后一方面是大家都能看得到的就是整个买家和需求快速下降给整个特殊的中心带来的影响那么另外一个方 ...

香港交易所信息显示，贝莱德在蒙牛乳业的持股比例于4月9日从5.09%降至4.98%。 ...

China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) Buy: Finally approaching the end of the downcycle Dividend up in 2024: Mengniu issued a profit warning on 18 February, so the results were not a surprise. Its reported profit dropped to RMB105m in 2024 from RMB4,809m in 2023 on a 10% decline in revenue, after RMB3,981m impairment charge on Bellamy, a wider raw milk evaporation loss and a loss from its associates. It declared a dividend of RMB0.509 per share in 2024, making a payout of 45% on adjusted net profit (by excluding ab ...

Summary of China Mengniu Dairy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Mengniu Dairy - **Industry**: Food Products, specifically Dairy - **Market Position**: Second-largest dairy producer in China after Inner Mongolia Yili [doc id='12'][doc id='28'] Financial Performance - **FY24 Results**: - Revenue decreased by 10.1% to Rmb88.7 billion - Net profit attributable to parents fell by 98% to Rmb104.5 million, primarily due to Rmb4 billion goodwill impairment from Bellamy and Rmb827 million impairment from China Modern Dairy [doc id='2'][doc id='3'] - Excluding impairments, recurring net profit increased by 2.2% YoY to Rmb4.9 billion, driven by gross profit margin (GPM) expansion and cost savings [doc id='2'] Sales Performance by Product - **Sales Decline**: - Liquid milk: -11% - Ice cream: -14.1% - Milk formula: -12.7% - Cheese: -0.9% - **Gross Profit Margin**: Increased by 2.4 percentage points YoY to 39.6%, mainly due to lower raw milk prices [doc id='3'] Cost Management - **Selling Expenses**: Decreased by 8.3% to Rmb23.1 billion, representing 26% of sales - **Administrative Expenses**: Reduced by 10.8% to Rmb4.2 billion, accounting for 4.8% of sales - **Core Operating Profit Margin**: Increased by 1.9 percentage points YoY to 8.2% due to GPM expansion and efficient cost control [doc id='3'] Dividend Policy - **Dividend Payout Ratio**: Increased to 45% in 2024 from 40% in 2023, based on profit excluding impairment impacts [doc id='3'] Market Outlook - **Price Target**: Raised to HK$23.3, implying a 16.6x 2025E PE ratio - **EPS Forecasts**: Slight increase in 2025-26E EPS by 1-2% due to efficient cost management [doc id='5'] - **Stock Price**: HK$18.46 as of 26 March 2025, with a forecasted price appreciation of 26.2% and a dividend yield of 3.3% [doc id='11'][doc id='10'] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Economic slowdown and consumption decline - Increased competition - Cost inflation and price resistance - Regulatory changes and foreign exchange risks [doc id='14'] Analyst Ratings - **12-Month Rating**: Buy - **Market Capitalization**: HK$72.7 billion (approximately US$9.35 billion) [doc id='6'][doc id='28'] Additional Insights - **Management Guidance**: Awaiting further insights from the annual results conference scheduled for 27 March [doc id='4'] - **Investment Thesis**: The company is entering a high-quality growth stage with disciplined cost control, and the anticipated bottoming out of raw milk prices could enhance the competitive landscape [doc id='5']

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 was JPY 8,675,000,000, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, with a significant decline in sales volume and prices [4] - Gross profit margin improved from 37.2% in 2023 to 39.6% in 2024, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, while operating margin expanded by 190 basis points to 8.2%, marking the best operating profit in the company's history [6][7] - Attributable net profit was JPY 4,435,000,000, excluding the impact of goodwill impairment from Bellamy and Modern Dairy [8][15] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from white milk and ice cream faced challenges, but chilled products and yogurt segments showed positive growth trends [9] - Formula milk revenue declined, but excluding Bellamy's impairment, profitability was maintained [10] - The cheese business stabilized and improved profitability, achieving a market share of over 49.5% [11][34] Market Performance - Fresh milk faced intense competition but saw a 20% growth in the high-end brand "Shiny Metal," which became the market leader among premium brands [28] - The ice cream segment experienced destocking pressure, but inventory levels improved in early 2025 [30] - The infant milk formula market returned to a growth track, achieving double-digit growth for the company's brands [31] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is implementing a "One Core, Two Wings" strategy, focusing on core businesses like room temperature chilled products and fresh milk while expanding into new markets and product categories [18][19] - Emphasis on innovation, product upgrades, and improving supply chain efficiency to navigate industry challenges [52][54] - The company aims to enhance its brand value and market presence through strategic collaborations and marketing campaigns [41][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management highlighted the current dairy industry challenges, including supply-demand imbalances and weak consumer consumption [52][56] - The focus will be on enhancing nutritional offerings and addressing consumer health needs, particularly in lower-tier markets [60][66] - The company is optimistic about future growth opportunities, especially in the context of an expanding middle class and increasing demand for high-quality dairy products [69][70] Other Important Information - The company reported a significant increase in free cash flow due to lower capital expenditures, allowing for a dividend payout ratio of 45% in 2024 [15] - The company is committed to advancing its ESG initiatives, including green packaging and sustainability efforts [50][51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the company's strategies for future growth? - The company is focusing on its "One Core, Two Wings" strategy to strengthen core businesses and expand into new markets [18] Question: How is the company addressing the challenges in the dairy industry? - The management emphasized the need for refined management and innovation to improve efficiency and navigate current challenges [52][54] Question: What is the outlook for the infant milk formula segment? - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in the infant milk formula market, especially with the aging population and increased health awareness [32]

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 was JPY 8,675,000,000, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, with a significant decline in sales volume and prices [4][6] - Gross profit margin improved from 37.2% in 2023 to 39.6% in 2024, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, while operating margin expanded by 190 basis points to 8.2%, marking the best operating profit in the company's history [6][7] - Attributable net profit was JPY 4,435,000,000, excluding the impact of goodwill impairments from Bellamy and Modern Dairy [8][12] - Cash flow for 2024 was stable at JPY 8,330,000,000, with capital expenditures (CapEx) reduced by 30% to JPY 38,700,000 [13][15] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from chilled products and yogurt segments showed positive trends, while white milk and ice cream faced growth pressures [9][10] - Formula milk revenue declined, but excluding Bellamy's impairment, profitability was maintained [10] - The cheese business stabilized and improved profitability, achieving a market share of over 49.5% [33] Market Performance - The fresh milk segment faced intense competition but saw a 20% growth in the high-end brand "Shiny Metal," which became the market leader among premium brands [27][28] - Ice cream sales declined due to destocking pressures, but inventory levels improved in early 2025 [29] - The infant milk formula segment returned to a growth track with double-digit growth for the company's brands [30] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is implementing a "One Core, Two Wings" strategy, focusing on core businesses like room temperature and chilled products while expanding into international markets [18][38] - Emphasis on innovation, product upgrades, and enhancing supply chain efficiency to navigate industry challenges [51][70] - The company aims to address the nutritional needs of consumers and improve market penetration, especially in lower-tier markets [64][66] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management highlighted the current dairy industry challenges, including supply-demand imbalances and weak consumer consumption [51][52] - The focus will be on premium protein as a core value, with a commitment to improving nutritional offerings and addressing consumer health needs [53][57] - The company is optimistic about future growth opportunities, particularly in the context of an expanding middle class and increasing demand for high-quality dairy products [68][69] Other Important Information - The company has made significant strides in ESG initiatives, including green packaging and carbon reduction efforts, and has received recognition for its sustainability practices [49][50] - The management emphasized the importance of brand building and cultural integration in marketing strategies to resonate with consumers [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the company's plans for future growth? - The company plans to focus on premium product offerings and expand its market share in both domestic and international markets, leveraging its strong brand influence [38][69] Question: How is the company addressing the challenges in the dairy industry? - The management acknowledged the challenges and emphasized the need for refined management, cost control, and innovation to improve operational efficiency and meet consumer demands [51][70] Question: What is the company's approach to ESG and sustainability? - The company is committed to advancing its green strategy and enhancing transparency in its ESG reporting, which has been well recognized by authoritative institutions [49][50]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 88.6748 billion, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, due to an imbalance in supply and demand in the dairy industry[2]. - The gross profit margin increased by 2.4 percentage points to 39.6%, with operating profit reaching RMB 7.2567 billion, an operating profit margin increase of 1.9 percentage points to 8.2%[2]. - The company reported a profit attributable to equity shareholders of RMB 104.5 million, a significant decline from RMB 4.8092 billion in the previous year[5]. - The company reported a total comprehensive loss of RMB 791.8 million for the year, compared to a comprehensive income of RMB 4.7551 billion in the previous year[6]. - The group reported a short-term lease expense of RMB 138,871,000 for the year ending December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 147,265,000 in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 9.4%[37]. - The pre-tax profit for 2024 was significantly impacted by inventory write-downs amounting to RMB 911,092 thousand, compared to RMB 323,675 thousand in 2023[33]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 4,886,975,000 for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, with a pre-tax profit of RMB 6,312,187,000[25]. - The company's EBITDA decreased by 53.1% to RMB 4.4617 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 5.0%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year[78]. Assets and Liabilities - Total non-current assets decreased to RMB 70.525 billion from RMB 81.092 billion year-on-year, primarily due to impairment losses on goodwill and intangible assets[7]. - The company reported a current liability exceeding current assets by RMB 1,238,775 thousand as of December 31, 2024[11]. - Non-current liabilities decreased from RMB 31,974,182 thousand in 2023 to RMB 21,260,741 thousand in 2024, representing a reduction of approximately 33.5%[8]. - Net assets decreased from RMB 50,651,711 thousand in 2023 to RMB 48,025,491 thousand in 2024, a decline of about 5.2%[8]. - Total liabilities as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 64,568,240,000, with segment liabilities in liquid milk at RMB 28,708,293,000 and ice cream at RMB 4,454,086,000[25]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The net cash inflow from operating activities was RMB 8.3323 billion, demonstrating stable performance year-on-year[2]. - The board proposed a dividend payout ratio of 45% for 2024, with a final dividend of RMB 0.509 per share, totaling a cash dividend distribution of RMB 1.9942 billion[3]. - The proposed final dividend for 2024 is RMB 0.509 per ordinary share, an increase from RMB 0.489 per share in 2023, marking a rise of about 4.1%[42]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing its "GREEN" strategy and "dual carbon" goals, focusing on sustainable practices and environmental initiatives[3]. - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns while navigating external challenges through innovation and operational efficiency[2]. - The company plans to continue expanding its product offerings and market presence, focusing on new product development and potential acquisitions to drive future growth[22]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and AI integration to improve operational efficiency and address supply-demand imbalances[71]. Product Development and Market Position - The liquid milk segment generated revenue of RMB 73,065,615,000, while the ice cream segment contributed RMB 5,175,411,000, and the milk powder segment reported RMB 3,320,456,000[23]. - The company launched a new dual-protein milk product under "Daily Fresh," leading to significant sales growth, while the sub-brand "Little Fresh" targets young consumers with a "light fresh milk" category[59]. - The company’s adult powder brand "Yourui" emphasizes health for the elderly, releasing several industry-leading research results and enhancing brand awareness through targeted marketing strategies[61]. - The company has enriched its low-temperature cheese product matrix and successfully launched several new products, including zero-sugar cheese snacks and seasonal limited editions[66]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with multiple chain brands in the baking, coffee, tea, and dining sectors to provide integrated solutions[56]. Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility - The company is committed to sustainable development, implementing a "GREEN" strategy and a "dual carbon" strategy to reduce carbon emissions across the supply chain[98]. - The company has established a sustainable development reporting system, releasing multiple reports including the first TNFD-compliant report in the Chinese dairy industry[98]. - The company has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with AWS for sustainable water management, aiming to enhance water resource management practices[99]. - The company has established the Inner Mongolia Mengniu Public Welfare Foundation, focusing on emergency disaster relief, nutrition empowerment, rural revitalization, and ecological protection[100]. Human Resources and Governance - The company has employed over 41,000 employees across mainland China, Hong Kong, Oceania, and Southeast Asia as of December 31, 2024[101]. - The company has implemented a comprehensive compensation system aligned with business performance, emphasizing competitive salaries and diverse incentives[102]. - The company plans to enhance its talent development system and promote career pathways for future-oriented talent teams[102]. - The company’s audit committee has reviewed the financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, ensuring compliance with accounting principles[109].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company's main business performance remains robust, with a significant profit expectation increase in the second half of the year after excluding impairment losses [2][7]. - The report highlights that despite a decline in total revenue year-on-year due to market pressures, the company benefits from a decrease in raw milk prices, leading to improved gross and operating profit margins [7]. - The company anticipates a profit of RMB 0.5-2.5 billion for 2024, primarily due to impairment provisions related to brand acquisitions, with specific expected impairments of RMB 3.8-4 billion for Bellamy and RMB 0.79-0.9 billion affecting the profit statement [7]. - The company assures that dividend declarations will not be impacted by one-time factors, maintaining a commitment to increase the payout ratio to 50% over the next two years [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 92,593 million in 2022, RMB 98,624 million in 2023, with an expected decline to RMB 87,504 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 91,904 million in 2025 and RMB 96,934 million in 2026 [10]. - Net profit is projected to drop significantly to RMB 244 million in 2024, recovering to RMB 5,078 million in 2025 and RMB 5,853 million in 2026 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 1.34 in 2022, declining to RMB 1.22 in 2023, and then dropping to RMB 0.06 in 2024, before rebounding to RMB 1.29 in 2025 and RMB 1.48 in 2026 [10]. - The report indicates a target price adjustment to HKD 20.94, up from HKD 16.04, based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite the impact of impairment provisions on overall profits for 2024, the main business performance of Mengniu Dairy remains robust, with significant profit expectations for the second half of the year after excluding impairments [1] - Mengniu Dairy's profit warning suggests an expected profit of RMB 0.5 billion to 2.5 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 94.8% to 99% compared to RMB 48.1 billion in 2023, primarily due to impairment provisions related to brand acquisitions [1] - The company anticipates a goodwill and intangible asset impairment of RMB 3.8 billion to 4 billion due to poor operational and financial performance of Bellamy, along with a further impact of RMB 790 million to 900 million from joint venture Modern Dairy's impairment [1] Group 2 - Excluding the aforementioned impairments, Mengniu Dairy's main business is expected to yield a profit of RMB 46.4 billion to 51.5 billion for 2024, aligning with market consensus expectations, with a notable improvement in net profit for the second half projected at RMB 21.9 billion to 27 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.7% to 37.4% [1] - In the context of a pressured overall dairy market, Mengniu Dairy has achieved market share gains in niche segments such as premium milk and low-temperature yogurt, benefiting from stabilized raw milk prices and a return to rational market competition [2] - The target price for Mengniu Dairy has been raised to HKD 20.94 from HKD 16.04, based on a 15 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, while maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Mengniu Dairy's impairment provisions have cleared historical burdens, setting a solid foundation for profit growth in 2025. The company anticipates a gradual improvement in the dairy industry supply-demand balance, which is expected to enhance the operational conditions of upstream farms [7][8] - Despite a challenging 2024, the company's main operations show resilience, with expected improvements in gross and operating profit margins due to declining raw milk prices and various efficiency enhancement measures [7] - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns, indicating that the anticipated impairments are non-cash accounting items. The company aims to maximize shareholder returns through dividend policies that exclude these impairments [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 886.82 billion, 936.85 billion, and 96.714 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -10.08%, +5.64%, and +3.23% [7] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 110.14 million, 4.83 billion, and 5.42 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -97.71%, +4289%, and +12% respectively [7] - The report projects a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.03 RMB in 2024 to 1.38 RMB in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 575.24, 13.11, and 11.68 [1][7]