8月27日，蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)发布2025年度中期业绩公告。面对终端消费复苏缓慢、原奶价格持 续低迷的行业困局，蒙牛通过产品创新、渠道 升级 和精益管理三大引擎创新求变，今年上半年实现 收入 415.7 亿元，经营利润 35.4 亿元，同比增长 13.4 %。 公告显示，蒙牛持续推进的精益化管理成效显著，上半年其经营现金流实现同比增长 46.2% ，经营 利润率提升 1.5 个百分点至 8.5 %。 链接新人群 百余新品迎需求 面对乳制品同质化竞争，蒙牛选择以产品创新破局。2025年上半年，蒙牛响应不同年龄人群的多元 化需求，推出超百款新品，覆盖从常温奶到低温酸奶、从鲜奶到冰淇淋，从功能牛奶到婴儿配方奶粉 的全品类矩阵，引领消费者"喝上奶、喝好奶、喝对奶"。同时，蒙牛加速品类多元化升级，在低温 酸奶、鲜奶、奶粉、奶酪、冰品细分赛道均呈增长趋势。 为了让消费者"喝上奶" ， 蒙牛常温板块一举推出72款新品，全面强化基础营养，打造极致"质价 比"。高端鲜奶"每日鲜语"则通过洞察消费者需求，融入自研HMO打造儿童呵护营养奶，尤其针对 乳糖不耐受群体推出了零乳糖双蛋白产品； 为了让消费"喝好奶"， 20年老品 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 2025 年 08 月 28 日 蒙牛乳业 (02319) ——25H1 点评：液体乳需求承压，经营净利率提升显著 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 食品饮料 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 证 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 98624 | 88675 | 82468 | 86041 | 89636 | | 同比增长率（%） | 6.51 | -10.09 | -7.00 | 4.33 | 4.18 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4809 | 105 | 4424 | 5225 | 5716 | | 同比增长率（%） | -9.31 | -97.83 | 4113.33 | 18.11 | 9.40 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.22 | 0.03 | 1.13 | 1.34 | 1.46 | | 净资产收益率（ ...

8月27日，蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)发布2025年度中期业绩公告。面对终端消费复苏缓慢、原奶价格持续低迷 的行业困局，蒙牛通过产品创新、渠道升级和精益管理三大引擎创新求变，今年上半年实现收入415.7 亿元，经营利润35.4亿元，同比增长13.4%。 公告显示，蒙牛持续推进的精益化管理成效显著，上半年其经营现金流实现同比增长46.2%，经营利润 率提升1.5个百分点至8.5%。 研发硬实力铸就中国牛奶的世界品质。蒙牛凭借"含有DHA藻油的调制乳及其生产方法"发明专利，一 举荣获第二十五届中国专利银奖，这是中国乳业在专利领域的最高荣誉，也是中国液体奶创新的首件最 高专利荣誉；蒙牛旗下虹摹生物自主研发的母乳低聚糖（HMO）——乳糖-N-新四糖（LNnT）再次获 批，成为国内率先通过两个HMOs审批的企业；此外，今年全球乳业大会上，蒙牛旗下瑞哺恩恩至、蒂 兰圣雪、迈胜凭借优异表现，获得"2025年世界乳品创新奖"，全面印证了中国牛奶的"世界品质"。 拥抱新场景全渠道拓新发力 链接新人群，百余新品迎需求 面对乳制品同质化竞争，蒙牛选择以产品创新破局。2025年上半年，蒙牛响应不同年龄人群的多元化需 求，推出超百款新 ...

导语：面对终端消费复苏缓慢、原奶价格持续低迷的行业困局，蒙牛通过产品创新、渠道升级和精益管理三大引擎创新求变。 8月27日，蒙牛乳业（2319.HK）发布2025年度中期业绩公告。面对终端消费复苏缓慢、原奶价格持续低迷的行业困局，蒙牛通过产品创新、渠道升级和精 益管理三大引擎创新求变，今年上半年实现收入415.7亿元，经营利润35.4亿元，同比增长13.4%。 公告显示，蒙牛持续推进的精益化管理成效显著，上半年其经营现金流实现同比增长46.2%，经营利润率提升1.5个百分点至8.5%。 同时，为了推动消费者从"喝奶"向"吃奶"升级，蒙牛旗下"妙可蓝多"推出奶酪小三角、云朵芝士等新品以及多款功能奶酪产品，并打造涂抹奶油奶酪满足消 费者面包、贝果等搭配需求，进一步丰富了家庭餐桌奶酪品类；冰淇淋板块更是推出近20支新品，"随变转"一经上市就勾起消费者童年记忆中的糕体形象， 勇夺冰品新品卖力第一，"绿色心情"黑芝麻新品则为"脆皮青年开启养生局"。 品牌创新层面，蒙牛携手国内外经典大IP轮番消费者提供情绪价值。其中，新IP"燃爆"都市青年，《哪吒2·魔童闹海》全球出圈，蒙牛纯牛奶、每日鲜语、 瑞哺恩、真果粒等全系产品线 ...

8月27日，蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)发布2025年度中期业绩公告。面对终端消费复苏缓慢、原奶价格持续 低迷的行业困局，蒙牛通过产品创新、渠道升级和精益管理三大引擎创新求变，今年上半年实现收入 415.7亿元，经营利润35.4亿元，同比增长13.4%。 公告显示，蒙牛持续推进的精益化管理成效显著，上半年其经营现金流实现同比增长46.2%，经营 利润率提升1.5个百分点至8.5%。 研发硬实力铸就中国牛奶的世界品质。蒙牛凭借"含有DHA藻油的调制乳及其生产方法"发明专 利，一举荣获第二十五届中国专利银奖，这是中国乳业在专利领域的最高荣誉，也是中国液体奶创新的 首件最高专利荣誉；蒙牛旗下虹摹生物自主研发的母乳低聚糖(HMO)——乳糖-N-新四糖(LNnT)再次获 批，成为国内率先通过两个HMOs审批的企业；此外，今年全球乳业大会上，蒙牛旗下瑞哺恩恩至、蒂 兰圣雪、迈胜凭借优异表现，获得"2025年世界乳品创新奖"，全面印证了中国牛奶的"世界品质"。 链接新人群 百余新品迎需求 面对乳制品同质化竞争，蒙牛选择以产品创新破局。2025年上半年，蒙牛响应不同年龄人群的多元 化需求，推出超百款新品，覆盖从常温奶到低温酸奶 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of analyzing marketing trends and case studies to identify potential growth opportunities for brands in the second half of 2025 [1] - Six forward-looking marketing trends have been identified through the analysis of over a hundred cases, providing actionable insights for brands [1] - Emotional marketing has become a key driver of consumer behavior, with brands needing to integrate emotional elements into their strategies [2][4] Group 2 - LABUBU serves as a prime example of emotional marketing, resonating with young consumers by embracing a rebellious and non-conformist identity [4][7] - Emotional marketing is evolving towards more specific and precise expressions, with different emotions being assigned distinct meanings [4][7] - Brands are encouraged to adopt a long-term approach to emotional marketing, ensuring that emotional connections are deeply embedded in their brand identity [7] Group 3 - Brands are increasingly recognizing the need to return to the essence of marketing by focusing on quality content rather than short-term traffic [8] - Leveraging trending content can help brands establish emotional connections with consumers, transforming them from mere observers to active participants in cultural conversations [10] - Successful collaborations, such as the partnership between Mengniu and the animated film "Nezha," demonstrate the effectiveness of aligning brand values with popular cultural narratives [10][12] Group 4 - Long-form video content is gaining traction as a means to create deeper emotional connections with consumers, moving beyond traditional advertising methods [15] - Brands are utilizing long-form content to build a narrative that resonates with audiences, enhancing brand perception and loyalty [15] Group 5 - The concept of female empowerment in marketing is shifting from superficial representations to a deeper understanding of women's real needs and experiences [19][26] - Successful female-focused marketing campaigns are characterized by genuine empathy and respect for women's diverse roles and challenges in society [19][22] - Brands must elevate their narratives around women from mere commercial strategies to social responsibility practices to foster authentic emotional connections [23] Group 6 - The emergence of experiential marketing, exemplified by LV's "Louis Ship," highlights the importance of creating immersive brand experiences that resonate with consumers [27][29] - This trend reflects a broader consumer desire for emotional connections and meaningful interactions in physical spaces [31] - Brands are encouraged to craft their stories through experiential marketing, integrating their history and values into the consumer experience [31] Group 7 - Scene-based marketing is becoming a vital strategy for brands to connect with consumers by tapping into specific emotional needs and contexts [32][35] - Brands are increasingly recognizing the importance of predicting consumer scenarios and tailoring marketing activities to meet those needs [35] Group 8 - AI marketing is transforming the landscape by enhancing content production and user experience, with a significant penetration rate of 72% for AIGC in content creation [36] - Brands are exploring AI's potential to streamline marketing processes, from ideation to execution, creating a more efficient and engaging consumer experience [36][39] - The integration of AI in marketing is not just about technology but also about fostering long-term emotional trust with consumers [39]

Summary of Mengniu Dairy's Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Mengniu Dairy - **Industry**: Chinese Dairy Products Industry Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue Growth**: Mengniu Dairy has maintained long-term revenue growth despite external shocks, with new business expansions expected to achieve steady growth [2][4][5] 2. **Financial Resilience**: The company has shown strong financial resilience with stable cash flow and consistent dividends, despite fluctuations in profit due to goodwill impairment [2][5][17] 3. **Management Changes**: The appointment of CEO Gao Fei has led to reforms that are stabilizing channels, with expectations for improved operational efficiency and revenue growth in 2025 [2][6][17] 4. **Market Dynamics**: The Chinese dairy market is experiencing stable sales growth, but a decline in both volume and price due to demographic changes and falling raw milk prices [2][7][11] 5. **Core Business**: Liquid milk remains the backbone of Mengniu's business, while ice cream and cheese are identified as potential growth areas [2][9][12] 6. **Support from COFCO**: The backing of COFCO Group provides stability and support for Mengniu's operations and growth strategies [2][9] 7. **Rural Consumption Growth**: Increasing rural incomes and the spread of Western dietary habits in southern China present growth opportunities for dairy consumption [2][10][11] 8. **Future Growth Opportunities**: The company is well-positioned for future growth through its extensive product range and strategic partnerships in both domestic and international markets [2][9][15] 9. **Industry Trends**: The dairy industry is expected to see changes in consumer habits, particularly among the elderly, leading to increased demand for specialized dairy products [11][16] 10. **Challenges and Opportunities**: The industry faces challenges such as competition and changing consumer preferences, but also opportunities from rising disposable incomes and urban-rural consumption disparities [14] Additional Important Content 1. **Impact of Raw Milk Prices**: The decline in raw milk prices is expected to stabilize, which may reduce competition and improve profitability for leading companies like Mengniu [4][11][16] 2. **International Expansion**: Mengniu's international strategy includes expanding into Southeast Asia and Australia, which could enhance its global supply chain capabilities [15] 3. **Valuation and Market Position**: Mengniu's current valuation is lower than its peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13, indicating potential for upward adjustment as operational pressures ease [17]

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy is positioned as a leading player in the domestic dairy industry, leveraging its partnership with COFCO Group to drive growth through new product categories and international expansion [1] Company Overview - Mengniu Dairy's revenue composition for 2024 is projected to be 82.40% from liquid milk, 5.84% from ice cream, 3.74% from milk powder, 4.87% from cheese, and 3.15% from other dairy products, indicating a stable performance in its core liquid milk business [1] - The company has established six production bases overseas, contributing to its international business growth, with overseas revenue share increasing since 2019 [1] - Mengniu has over a thousand cooperative farms in China, with daily milk collection exceeding 20,000 tons, ensuring a solid supply chain [3] Industry Trends - The raw milk supply and demand are expected to rebalance, with a 24.53% decline in average raw milk prices from the end of 2021 to July 2023, indicating a potential price stabilization [2] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-quality and health-oriented products, with innovations such as low-temperature short-shelf-life milk and sugar-free yogurt gaining traction [2] Product Development and Strategy - Mengniu is expanding its product matrix beyond liquid milk to include fresh milk, cheese, ice cream, and milk powder, with increasing revenue contributions from these categories [3] - The company has implemented a "deep distribution" strategy since 2017, enhancing its penetration in rural markets and improving operational efficiency through digitalization [3] Financial Outlook - The company's net profit margin is relatively high compared to regional dairy companies, with expectations for improved profitability as raw milk prices stabilize and product upgrades continue [4] - Projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 5.08 billion and 5.69 billion respectively, with current PE ratios around 13 times and 12 times, indicating significant upside potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - The performance gap between national dairy companies and regional dairy companies is widening, with regional companies facing significant pressure to find new differentiation strategies in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Performance Trends - In 2023-2024, domestic dairy companies experienced a general decline in performance due to market demand and external factors, but signs of recovery were noted in early 2025 [2]. - Leading dairy companies like Yili achieved a revenue of 32.94 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.5%, with a net profit of 4.64 billion yuan, up 24.2% compared to 2024 [2]. - In contrast, regional dairy companies like Tianrun Dairy and Yantang Dairy reported declines in revenue and profits, with Tianrun's revenue dropping by 2.5% to 620 million yuan and a net loss of 73.03 million yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Regional dairy companies are facing increased competition from national players who have expanded into the fresh milk market, which has historically been a differentiating factor for regional firms [3]. - Yili's high-end low-temperature milk revenue grew by over 30% in 2024, while Mengniu's fresh milk brand maintained double-digit growth [3]. - The overall dairy consumption in China is reaching a bottleneck, leading to intensified competition among existing players, particularly affecting regional companies [3][6]. Group 3: Differentiation Strategies - To survive, regional dairy companies must establish new differentiation strategies, as exemplified by New Dairy, which has performed better than its peers by focusing on a 24-hour fresh milk product line [4][5]. - New Dairy's revenue for 2024 was 10.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 540 million yuan, and its 24-hour fresh milk series has seen significant growth [4][5]. - The company has also emphasized direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, achieving 6.23 billion yuan in direct sales revenue, accounting for 58.4% of its total revenue [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The competitive landscape in the dairy market is expected to remain intense in 2025, with increasing market concentration [6]. - Regional dairy companies that fail to find unique brand positioning and product differentiation may face marginalization or even elimination from the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, New Dairy Industry (002946.SZ), has demonstrated a better market performance than the industry average despite the overall downturn in the dairy sector, particularly through its focus on low-temperature milk products. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 10.665 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 2.93%, while the dairy product segment still achieved a growth of 0.83% [2] - The overall sales of dairy products across all channels fell by 2.7% in the past year, with major competitors like Mengniu (2319.HK) and Yili (600887.SH) experiencing revenue declines exceeding 10% and 12% respectively in their liquid milk segments [4] - New Dairy Industry achieved a net profit of 538 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, attributed to a higher proportion of low-temperature milk and declining raw milk costs [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The low-temperature milk segment has seen its penetration rate increase from 23% in 2020 to 41% in 2024, with nearly 60% of households in first-tier cities purchasing fresh milk more than twice a week [8] - Over half of New Dairy Industry's revenue comes from low-temperature products, capitalizing on the growth opportunities in this niche market [9] - The company has experienced a rise in gross margin to 28.36%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points over the past four years, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [12] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The low-temperature milk market remains competitive, with no clear leader, as major brands are rapidly expanding their market shares [13] - In the second half of 2024, Guangming (600594.SH) is expected to catch up to Yili in market share, while Mengniu's high-end low-temperature brand "Daily Fresh" is gaining traction through aggressive marketing [14] - Price wars are looming, putting pressure on New Dairy Industry's mid-to-high-end products, as promotional expenses increased by 100 million yuan, while revenue growth for the "24-hour" series slowed from 40% to 15% year-on-year [15] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - New Dairy Industry has pursued a national expansion strategy through acquisitions, having spent over 3.3 billion yuan on acquisitions since its listing, which has allowed it to operate 15 sub-brands [24][25] - The company is now focusing on "internal growth" and aims for a compound annual growth rate of double digits and a 10% reduction in debt ratio over the next five years [30] - The company plans to enhance operational quality in existing businesses while remaining open to acquisition opportunities, particularly in the growing low-temperature milk markets in second and third-tier cities [31]