24 February 2026 | 12:16AM HKT Equity Research China Consumer Staples: LNY expert calls: Spirits: Moutai/Wuliangye pivoting to recovery path; Dairy saw disciplined pricing yet unexciting On Feb 23, we hosted an expert call with a large spirits and F&B distributor located in Hunan province. Key highlights: 1) Spirits: Feitian Moutai volume/pricing topped expectations during the CNY period in the expert's region, with Feitian Moutai spirits retail sales volume up >20% yoy offsetting shipment control on non-st ...

陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 位投资人，大家上午好。那也祝大家新年好，以及开工大吉。那今天上午，是中金组织的 大众食品的春节的情况跟踪电话会。我是中金的食品饮料组陈文博。那今天上午，我们请 到了两位综合的食品的专家与大家分享春节的情况。那第一位专家，主要负责华东、华中 以及华西地区的包括饮料，还有零食等大大的一些品类的运营。专家您好，能听到我说话 吗？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 你好，可以，没问题。 陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 对，那我们就开始。那第一个，首先我想问问，就是您代理的这个品类也比较多，那想问 一下春节期间，比如说这个几个大的品类，像乳制品、饮料、零食、速冻。包括调味品， 这几个品类分别的增速情况，和景气度。然后就综合来看的话，有没有什么地方比咱们之 前预期的要好，或者是要差的？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 我们先按照您刚才说的那个品类来说，我们今年的这个总体的品类分成像修石，修石我们 今年的整体性，春节的一二月份，这二月份我们是截止到 2 月 10 号左右。节前的这个数 据，那我们整体的出货比去年同期我们是增长了 10%左右，这所有的修饰，这里面主要是 以礼盒为主，这个品相。那从整个 ...

【华泰必选】春节一站式调研-大众品行业跟踪要点 260222 调味品: #春节动销：26年1-2月餐饮板块生意近年最好，销售额同比增长约20%，农贸批发渠道销售额下滑；海天、李锦记 同比增长15%+，厨邦无增长；春节备货量按平均用量的1.5倍准备（往年为1.2倍），备货周期从10天延长至近半 个月；正月初四即被客户要求开工补货（为近年来首次）。 #驱动因素：增长由量（人流）驱动，1-2月 【华泰必选】春节一站式调研-大众品行业跟踪要点 260222 调味品: #春节动销：26年1-2月餐饮板块生意近年最好，销售额同比增长约20%，农贸批发渠道销售额下滑；海天、李锦记 同比增长15%+，厨邦无增长；春节备货量按平均用量的1.5倍准备（往年为1.2倍），备货周期从10天延长至近半 个月；正月初四即被客户要求开工补货（为近年来首次）。 #驱动因素：增长由量（人流）驱动，1-2月中型/大型餐饮的团拜、宴席、年夜饭等场景需求显著增加，核心商 区、步行街餐饮区人流密集，人均100元以上（家庭/商务消费）及人均30-60元的餐饮生意较好。 #费用投放：各品牌在春节期间同比未明显增投，海天搭赠+出货总费用5%-6%，25年费 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy Products and Beef Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the dairy products and beef industry in China, specifically discussing supply-demand trends and price updates for dairy and beef products [1][9]. Dairy Products Insights Market Size and Composition - In 2024, the total sales scale of dairy products in China is projected to be approximately 653.5 billion CNY, with liquid milk accounting for 355 billion CNY, milk powder for 176.6 billion CNY, and other dairy products for 121.9 billion CNY [1]. - Coconut milk and milk powder are expected to see a year-on-year decline in 2024, while other dairy products, including cream and cheese, are anticipated to continue growing [1]. Consumption Trends - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is expected to be slightly over 40 kg in 2024, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed countries and suggested consumption levels [1]. - The consumption of low-temperature milk in first-tier cities is around 36.6 billion CNY, with second-tier cities at 24.6 billion CNY, and below third-tier cities at approximately 30 billion CNY [2]. Supply and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in dairy product prices is expected to narrow, with a projected decrease of 1.1% in 2025, an improvement from a 1.9% decline in 2024 [3]. - The average price of raw milk has stabilized between 3.03 and 3.05 CNY per kg, showing signs of recovery [3][4]. - The low-temperature liquid milk segment is expected to outperform the ambient temperature segment, with a penetration rate projected to exceed 30% by 2029 [2]. Company Performance - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are expected to regain market share, with Yili showing slight growth and Mengniu facing more significant downward pressure due to its higher reliance on liquid milk [5][6]. - Both companies have set revenue targets for 2026 in the mid-single digits, indicating a positive outlook for the year [6]. Beef Industry Insights Price Trends - The beef price has shown significant improvement, with the price of fattened bulls at approximately 25.7 CNY per kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [10]. - The price of calves is around 33.8 CNY per kg, with a 40% year-on-year increase, indicating strong market confidence among producers [10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The beef industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with expectations that the price peak and duration will exceed previous cycles [9]. - Despite the recovery in prices, the enthusiasm for replenishing breeding stock remains low due to prolonged losses in the sector [10]. Profitability - The profitability for raising calves is approximately 1,400 CNY per head, while for fattened bulls, it is about 2,560 CNY per head, showing significant year-on-year growth [11][12]. - The overall improvement in profitability is notable, but the replenishment of breeding stock is still cautious, with many farms opting to maintain current stock levels [12]. Conclusion - The dairy and beef industries in China are showing signs of recovery, with positive trends in pricing and consumption. However, challenges remain, particularly in the replenishment of breeding stock in the beef sector and the competitive landscape in the dairy market. Investors are encouraged to monitor key players like Yili, Mengniu, and other dairy companies for potential opportunities [8][13].

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy Industry and Beef Cattle Price Trends Industry Overview - **Dairy Industry Supply and Demand Trends**: In 2024, coconut milk and milk powder are expected to decline year-on-year, while deep-processed dairy products like cream and cheese will continue to grow, with growth rates anticipated to outpace liquid milk and milk powder in the coming years. The average per capita dairy consumption in China is projected to be just over 40 kg, indicating significant room for improvement compared to developed economies and recommended consumption levels in China [1][1]. - **Low-Temperature and Room-Temperature Milk Consumption Trends**: The consumption scale of low-temperature milk in first-tier cities is approximately 36.6 billion yuan, with second-tier cities at a combined 24.6 billion yuan, and below third-tier cities around 30 billion yuan. The market for low-temperature milk in lower-tier cities is expected to be a core area for rapid expansion over the next five years [1][1]. Market Dynamics - **2024 Consumption Scale**: The consumption scale for room-temperature liquid milk is projected to be 265.3 billion yuan, while low-temperature liquid milk is expected to reach 89.7 billion yuan. Low-temperature milk is anticipated to continue its rapid growth, while room-temperature milk faces a contraction. By 2025, low-temperature milk is expected to achieve double-digit growth, with a penetration rate of 25% in 2024, projected to rise to over 30% by 2029 [2][2]. - **Milk Price Trends and Profitability**: The cumulative decline in milk prices is expected to be 1.1% in 2025, a slight improvement from a 1.9% decline in 2024. Despite demand pressures, dairy companies are expected to see a stabilization in raw milk prices, which have remained between 3.03-3.05 yuan/kg, with a recent increase noted. The improvement in profitability for dairy and beef cattle industries is anticipated to be more pronounced in 2026, with significant cost reductions expected for leading companies [2][2][3]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Share Recovery for Leading Dairy Companies**: Smaller dairy companies that previously gained competitive advantages through low-priced raw milk are expected to struggle as they lose this cost edge. Leading companies like Yili and Mengniu are projected to recover market share in 2026, with optimistic revenue targets set for 2025 [3][3]. - **Yili's Strategic Goals**: Yili aims for a mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, focusing on upgrading flavors in its room-temperature products and expanding its deep-processing business, which targets a scale of 10 billion yuan over five years [3][4]. - **Mengniu's Operational Improvements**: Mengniu, facing more significant internal adjustments, is expected to see a notable improvement in its operational status in 2026, with revenue growth anticipated in early months of the year [3][4]. Beef Cattle Industry Analysis - **Beef Cattle Price Trends**: The beef cattle industry is at a cyclical turning point, with prices expected to rise significantly. The industry has been in a loss cycle since 2023, projected to last until mid-2025, with a recovery in profitability expected in the latter half of 2025. As of early February 2026, prices for various cattle types have shown significant year-on-year increases [5][5]. - **Dairy Cow Inventory and Price Outlook**: The dairy cow inventory reduction is nearing its end, with a cumulative decrease of 8.8% expected by the end of 2025. Current milk prices have dropped below previous cycle lows, but there is an expectation for significant price increases in the latter half of 2026 [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus on Leading Dairy Companies**: Investors are advised to pay close attention to leading dairy companies such as Yili and Mengniu, as the dairy sector is expected to improve, particularly in the context of rising beef cattle prices and stabilizing milk prices [6][6].

Core Viewpoint - The high-end milk brand "Xietiandi" has experienced a significant price drop, indicating challenges in maintaining its premium positioning in a saturated market [5][12]. Brand Overview - "Xietiandi" was launched in November 2024 by "Yuexiu Huishan," which was formed after Guangzhou Yuexiu Group acquired Liaoning Huishan Dairy. The brand aims to replicate the success of "Telunsu," a premium product from Mengniu [5][14]. - The brand's marketing strategy included high-profile sponsorships of popular shows and a strong online presence, targeting rapid growth through e-commerce platforms [7][11]. Market Positioning - Initially, "Xietiandi" positioned itself as a high-end product with prices significantly above competitors, such as 128 yuan for its "Heitu Juan Shan Pure Milk," compared to around 50 yuan for similar products from established brands [9]. - The brand emphasized unique selling points like "global 1% Juan Shan cows" and high protein content, but these features were not exclusive, leading to challenges in differentiation [18][22]. Pricing Strategy - By late 2025, "Xietiandi" began to lower prices and introduce more affordable products, with its new "Heitu Organic Pure Milk" priced at 3.3 yuan per box, indicating a shift towards a volume-driven strategy [12][22]. Company Background - "Yuexiu Huishan" has a strong legacy, being the largest liquid milk producer in Northeast China before facing a major financial crisis in 2016. The company aims to achieve 10 billion yuan in revenue by 2025 [14][16]. - The current general manager, Bai Ying, has a history with Mengniu and is seen as a key player in the brand's strategy [16]. Challenges and Lessons - The rapid decline of "Xietiandi" highlights the difficulties new brands face in a saturated market, where established players dominate and consumer loyalty is hard to achieve [18][22]. - The experience serves as a cautionary tale for new brands, emphasizing that marketing alone cannot compensate for a lack of core product value and differentiation [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid decline in the market performance of the high-end milk brand "谢添地" (Xie Tiandi), which was initially positioned as a premium product but has seen significant price reductions within a year of its launch, indicating a failure to establish a strong market presence and consumer loyalty [4][11][17]. Group 1: Product Pricing and Market Response - "谢添地" was launched in December 2024 with high-end products priced significantly above competitors, such as 12.8 yuan per bottle for its flagship product, which is much higher than similar products from brands like 金典 (Jindian) and 特仑苏 (Telunsu) [4][6]. - By the second half of the year, "谢添地" introduced lower-priced products, with prices dropping to the 3-4 yuan range per bottle, reflecting a shift in strategy to attract more price-sensitive consumers [6][10]. - The brand's initial high-end products have also seen price cuts, with discounts reported in various channels, indicating a struggle to maintain their premium positioning [9][10]. Group 2: Brand Strategy and Market Positioning - The brand was developed with the intention of replicating the success of "特仑苏," led by a key figure from the original brand's development team, highlighting a strategy focused on high-end market capture [12][14]. - "谢添地" invested heavily in marketing, including sponsorship of popular TV shows, with estimated costs around 80 million yuan for naming rights, aiming to quickly establish brand recognition [16]. - Despite these efforts, the brand faced skepticism from consumers regarding its pricing strategy, with some questioning the justification for its high-end positioning [16][17]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Consumer Perception - The article notes that "谢添地" failed to address a critical question: why consumers should pay a premium for its products, especially in a saturated market where established brands dominate [17][18]. - The Chinese dairy market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies accounting for 91% of the market share, making it difficult for new entrants to gain traction [18]. - The brand's marketing approach has been criticized for being outdated, relying on heavy spending and a narrative of scarcity without delivering real differentiation in product quality or consumer value [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid decline in the pricing and market performance of the high-end milk brand "谢添地," which was initially marketed as the "Hermès of milk" but has now introduced products at significantly lower price points, indicating a failure to establish a sustainable premium brand identity in a competitive market [1][2][12]. Group 1: Pricing Strategy and Market Response - "谢添地" launched with high-end products priced at 128 yuan per case (12.8 yuan per bottle) and 78 yuan per case (7.8 yuan per bottle), which were significantly higher than competitors like 金典 and 特仑苏 [2][4]. - By the second half of the year, "谢添地" introduced lower-priced products, with single bottle prices dropping to the 3-4 yuan range, and some products being sold for as low as 3.3 yuan in physical stores [4][5]. - The initial high-end products have also seen price reductions, with discounts leading to prices as low as 4.47 yuan per bottle, indicating a significant shift in pricing strategy [5][6]. Group 2: Brand Positioning and Market Challenges - The brand was developed with the intention of replicating the success of "特仑苏," led by key figure 白瑛, who previously helped establish the latter brand [7][12]. - Despite heavy marketing investments, including sponsorship of popular TV shows, "谢添地" faced skepticism from consumers regarding its high pricing and perceived value [12][14]. - The brand's attempt to position itself as a premium product has been challenged by the saturated market, where the top five companies dominate 91% of the market share, making it difficult for new entrants to gain traction [12][15]. Group 3: Consumer Perception and Market Dynamics - "谢添地" struggles to justify its premium pricing to consumers, who question the necessity of high-end milk products, especially when basic milk meets their nutritional needs [15]. - The brand's marketing strategy has been criticized for relying on outdated tactics of heavy spending and scarcity narratives without establishing genuine brand loyalty or value [14][15]. - The differentiation claimed by "谢添地," such as its use of "娟姗牛" and A2 milk, is not unique, as similar products are offered by established brands like 伊利 and 光明, undermining its premium positioning [14][15].

Core Insights - The core message of the article highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior regarding dairy consumption in China, with a notable decline in dairy intake and a growing demand for personalized nutrition solutions [2][6][21]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Recent data from the "2025 China Dairy Business Index Report" indicates a decrease in dairy consumption, with 23.1% of consumers reducing their intake due to changing dietary habits and unmet quality expectations [2][4]. - As health perceptions evolve from mere nutritional supplementation to precise management, consumers are increasingly focused on what type of milk aligns with their individual needs [2][5]. - The market is witnessing a fragmentation of consumer demands, with different demographics seeking tailored nutritional solutions, such as weight management, calcium absorption, and energy supplementation [5][6]. Group 2: Company Strategies and Product Innovations - Mengniu's president, Gao Fei, emphasizes the importance of protein as the core value of dairy products, aiming to ensure consumers drink the right and quality milk [7]. - The introduction of the "Hi MILK" series by Telunsu represents a strategic response to the diverse consumer needs, offering specialized products like fat-free milk for fitness enthusiasts and high-calcium milk for growing adolescents [12][13]. - Telunsu's innovative product matrix aims to redefine the standards of high-quality milk, including the launch of the first desert organic milk, which sets a new benchmark in the premium organic dairy segment [14][15][17]. Group 3: Cultural and Emotional Aspects - Telunsu's approach transcends mere nutrition, positioning milk consumption as a cultural and emotional experience, thereby enhancing the ritualistic aspect of drinking milk [18][19]. - The company's product offerings reflect a shift from a one-dimensional supply model to a co-creation of value with consumers, indicating a deeper relationship between brands and their customers [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while challenges in the dairy sector persist, the evolution of consumer expectations drives industry progress, with Telunsu poised to explore further innovations in response to health-conscious lifestyles [20][22].

Group 1 - Recent purchasing restrictions in Shandong have caused confusion among consumers, with major brands citing temporary limitations due to abnormal account activities [1] - Consumers perceive these restrictions as regional discrimination, leading to calls for boycotts and the emergence of local alternatives [1] - The issue may stem from a fraud case involving a Shandong resident exploiting refund policies, resulting in a blanket response from some merchants that unfairly affects honest consumers [1] Group 2 - Online tutorials have emerged suggesting strategies to avoid refunds, including targeting regions with high refund rates, which can harm ordinary consumers [2] - The notion of regional discrimination is criticized, emphasizing that the actions of a few should not define the integrity of the many [2] - The article advocates for understanding and not allowing precautionary measures to sever connections between consumers and brands [2]