Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in companies that demonstrate growth in revenue, earnings, and free cash flow [1] - It highlights the preference for companies with excellent growth prospects and favorable valuations [1] - The focus is on steadily growing companies with high free cash flow margins, dividend stocks, and those with generous share repurchase programs [1] Group 2 - There is a mention of a potential long position in CLF, indicating interest in initiating a beneficial investment [2] - The article expresses personal opinions and findings without any compensation from the companies mentioned [2] - It clarifies that there is no existing stock or derivative position in the companies discussed [2]

Group 1: Steel Market Overview - Steel stocks experienced a surge in 2021 and 2022 due to the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which allocated $1.2 trillion for projects requiring steel [1] - Interest rates and tariff uncertainties led to a decline in steel stocks in 2024 and early 2025, but recent trends indicate a return of buyers as interest rates are expected to fall [2][3] Group 2: Nucor Inc. Analysis - Nucor Inc. is the largest steel producer in the U.S. and has seen a stock price forecast of $155.56, indicating a 21.27% upside from the current price of $128.27 [2] - Despite a 17% decline in the last 12 months, Nucor's stock has rebounded by 18% in the last month, driven by hopes for renewed infrastructure spending [3] - Analysts project earnings growth of around 43%, supporting a current trading multiple of approximately 22x earnings, which is above its historical average [4] Group 3: Steel Dynamics Inc. Insights - Steel Dynamics Inc. has a 12-month stock price forecast of $148.00, representing a 15.43% upside from the current price of $128.22 [5] - The company recently completed a new plant in Texas, enhancing its production capabilities, particularly in flat-rolled steel, which is in demand for infrastructure projects [7] - Steel Dynamics boasts a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44% and a safe dividend with a payout ratio of 26% [8] Group 4: Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Overview - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has a stock price forecast of $11.53, indicating a 60.74% upside from the current price of $7.17 [9] - The company generates a significant portion of its revenue from the automotive sector and is encouraged to diversify its revenue streams [9] - Cleveland-Cliffs faces challenges due to a high debt load from acquisitions, and any relief from interest rates could improve its earnings per share, which have been negative for the last three quarters [10][11]

Core Insights - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has launched a new Vertical Stainless Bright Anneal Line at its Coshocton Works facility, representing a $150 million investment aimed at producing premium stainless steel for high-end automotive and critical appliance applications [1][8] - The new annealing line utilizes a 100% hydrogen atmosphere, replacing traditional acid-based processing, and includes a hydrogen recovery unit to enhance efficiency [1][2] - The stainless steel segment has been a consistent profit driver for Cleveland-Cliffs, and this new line is expected to improve quality and productivity, thereby enhancing profitability prospects [2] Financial Performance - Cleveland-Cliffs shares have decreased by 52.2% over the past year, while the Zacks Steel Producers industry has seen a decline of 30% [3] - The company anticipates a reduction of approximately $50 per net ton in steel unit costs for 2025, an increase from the previous expectation of a $40 reduction, primarily due to the idling of underperforming assets [4] - Projected capital expenditures for the company are around $625 million, down from an earlier estimate of $700 million [4] Market Position - Cleveland-Cliffs currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] - In the basic materials sector, better-ranked stocks include Carpenter Technology Corporation, Centrus Energy Corp., and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. [5]

Company Performance - Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) stock decreased by 4.43% to $7.33, underperforming the S&P 500 which fell by 0.03% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Cleveland-Cliffs increased by 3.37%, surpassing the Basic Materials sector's gain of 3.05% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.6% [1] Earnings Estimates - The upcoming earnings report for Cleveland-Cliffs is projected to show an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.57, a significant decrease of 618.18% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $4.96 billion, reflecting a 2.57% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict an EPS of -$1.54 and revenue of $19.46 billion, indicating changes of -110.96% and +1.44% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Cleveland-Cliffs are crucial for investors, as upward revisions indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's operations and profit generation [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently assigns Cleveland-Cliffs a rank of 3 (Hold) [6] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 44.58% in the past month [6] Industry Context - Cleveland-Cliffs operates within the Steel - Producers industry, which is part of the Basic Materials sector [7] - The Steel - Producers industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 93, placing it in the top 38% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that industries in the top 50% outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Industry Overview - The S&P Steel Index is experiencing growth in 2025, driven by tariff leverage, strong balance sheets, and high returns on capital [1] - As of June 12, the S&P Steel Sub-Industry Index has increased by 8.40% year to date, indicating stabilization in the US steel sector [1] - President Trump's decision to double US steel import tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4, 2025, is a significant factor contributing to this growth [1][2] Tariff Impact - The announcement of the tariff increase led to immediate gains in steel stocks, with Cleveland-Cliffs rising 26% in one day, while Steel Dynamics and Nucor saw increases of 10-11% [2] - Benchmark steel prices rose from $725 per metric ton before the tariff announcement to $875 per metric ton currently, effectively raising the price floor for domestic steel [2] Market Dynamics - The steel industry's rally is attributed to both short-term catalysts and long-term structural forces, including federal spending on infrastructure and reshoring efforts [3] - Supply chain restocking, recovery in the auto sector, and disciplined capital returns from leading companies like Nucor and Steel Dynamics contribute to a more stable sector profile [3] Construction and Demand - Domestic construction activity is robust, particularly in commercial construction, which supports demand for structural steel despite higher interest rates [7] - Key steel-consuming industries, such as automotive and machinery manufacturing, are showing resilience, while renewable energy infrastructure expansion creates new demand for steel [7] Company Highlights - Nucor, trading at $121 per share with a 1.82% dividend yield, is noted for its industry-leading margins and strong balance sheet, despite recent volatility due to tariff negotiations [9] - Steel Dynamics, priced at $133 per share with a 1.50% dividend yield, has shown a 16.7% increase year to date and is recognized for its operational efficiency and low production costs [10][11] - ArcelorMittal, trading at $30 per share with a 1.55% dividend yield, has seen a 30.6% increase year to date and is expected to benefit from strategic acquisitions and joint ventures [12][13] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with high-margin, value-added products and sustainable dividend growth rather than chasing commodity pricing volatility [14] - Strong fundamentals, including cost-efficient production, strong returns on capital, and quality net margins, are essential for evaluating steel stocks [16]

Group 1 - U.S. Steel Corporation (X) increased by 0.6%, reaching a daily high, while Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) rose approximately 1% to a daily high, and Nucor Corporation (NUE) gained 0.49% to a daily high [1] - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. maintained a decline of over 2.6%, stabilizing around a daily low of $7.16 [1] - President Trump promoted his steel tariffs, claiming that U.S. Steel Corporation has a "golden share" controlled by the president, with 51% ownership belonging to the U.S. [1] Group 2 - U.S. Steel Corporation's current stock price is $53.78, with a market capitalization of $12.201 billion and a 52-week high of $63.48 [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of 182.56 and a dividend yield of 0.37%, with a quarterly dividend amount of $0.05 [3] - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has a current stock price of $7.18, with a market capitalization of $3.549 billion and a 52-week high of $16.47 [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs' stock price has declined significantly due to new trade negotiations that may reduce steel tariffs on imports from Mexico, raising concerns about the company's profitability and market position [1][4]. Group 1: Steel Tariffs and Trade Negotiations - New trade negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico could potentially roll back the recently announced 50% tariffs on steel imports from Mexico [1][3]. - The proposed changes would allow a specific quota of steel imports from Mexico to enter the U.S. duty-free or at a reduced tariff rate, while imports exceeding this quota would still incur the 50% tariff [3]. Group 2: Impact on Cleveland-Cliffs - The mere speculation of a tariff reduction for Mexican steel has shaken investor confidence in Cleveland-Cliffs, as it raises the possibility of similar negotiations with other countries [4]. - Cleveland-Cliffs has been relying on tariff policies to regain profitability after incurring a loss of $754 million in the previous year [5]. - The company faces additional challenges from domestic competition, particularly from U.S. Steel, which will soon receive financial backing from Japan's Nippon Steel [5].

Group 1 - Cleveland-Cliffs shares have increased by 28.8% this week, benefiting from the rise in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 [1] - The Trump administration has raised tariffs on foreign steel from 25% to 50%, with the exception of steel from the U.K., which will incur a 25% charge [2] - American steel manufacturers, including Cleveland-Cliffs, will see their products become more competitively priced due to these tariffs [3] Group 2 - The sustainability of Cleveland-Cliffs' benefits from tariffs is uncertain, as tariff policies can change rapidly and unpredictably [5] - Cleveland-Cliffs has struggled financially, barely turning a profit in 2023 and experiencing losses in most quarters, with only one quarter showing a minimal profit of $2 million on $5 billion in sales [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a 50% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, creating significant opportunities for domestic producers like Cleveland-Cliffs Inc, Nucor Corp, and Steel Dynamics Inc [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Companies - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc experienced a 25.2% gain in early trading following the tariff announcement, allowing the company to raise prices by $200-300 per ton while remaining competitive [3][4]. - Nucor Corp is expected to boost its EBITDA margins to the 18-20% range over the next 12-18 months due to its low-cost electric arc furnace model and reduced import competition [4]. - Steel Dynamics Inc's diversification into aluminum production is now advantageous, as rising tariffs on both steel and aluminum enhance its pricing power [5]. Group 2: Broader Market Implications - Investors may consider steel-focused ETFs like the VanEck Steel ETF and the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF for diversified exposure to the steel sector [6]. - While current gains are significant, there are concerns about potential policy changes by late 2025 due to structural supply gaps and midterm politics [6].

Key Takeaways NUE, STLD and CLF stand to benefit from new 50% tariffs that favor domestic steel producers. NUE and STLD will benefit from smart investments and investor-friendly moves. CLF expects $50/ton in cost savings for 2025 and a strong earnings rebound by 2026.U.S. President Donald Trump does it again. In a bid to protect American industry, he has doubled down, literally, on his favorite economic weapon — tariffs. Effective today, the United States has raised import duties on steel and aluminum fro ...