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美股市场速览:市场窄幅震荡,多数行业下跌
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-13 03:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced narrow fluctuations with most sectors declining, as the S&P 500 fell by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.1% [3] - There were 8 sectors that increased while 16 sectors decreased, with notable gains in Energy (+2.6%), Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+2.4%), and Transportation (+1.2%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that saw significant declines included Telecommunications (-4.8%), Insurance (-2.6%), and Banks (-2.5%) [3] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500's estimated fund flow was -$5.7 billion this week, a decrease from the previous week's +$23.4 billion, with a total of +$216.4 billion over the last 13 weeks [4] - Fund inflows were observed in 11 sectors, with Semiconductor Products and Equipment leading at +$17.2 billion, followed by Transportation (+$6.0 billion) and Energy (+$4.1 billion) [4] - Sectors experiencing fund outflows included Software and Services (-$15.9 billion) and Automotive and Parts (-$8.2 billion) [4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents was adjusted upward by 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase the previous week [5] - Earnings expectations were raised for 21 sectors, with the highest adjustments in Integrated Finance (+0.8%), Automotive and Parts (+0.8%), and Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+0.8%) [5] - Three sectors saw downward revisions, notably Healthcare Equipment and Services (-1.0%) and Telecommunications (-0.2%) [5] Price Performance - The Energy sector recorded a price return of +2.6% this week, while the Telecommunications sector saw a decline of -4.8% [15] - Over the past 52 weeks, the Energy sector has increased by 5.1%, while the Telecommunications sector has decreased by 4.0% [15] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector has shown a remarkable increase of +48.0% over the past 13 weeks [15] Fund Flow Analysis - The Industrial sector led with a net fund inflow of $781 million this week, followed by Energy with $409 million [19] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector also saw significant inflows of $1.716 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] - In contrast, the Software and Services sector experienced the largest outflow of -$1.594 billion [19]
中美关税“降级”的资产含义
2025-05-19 15:20
摘要 • 中美关税调整反映了双方对高关税不可持续性的共识,美国需缓解供给冲 击以控制通胀,并通过延长关税豁免期来补充库存,为谈判争取时间。未 来需关注主要转口市场是否受美国出口管制影响,以及美国是否会继续利 用出口管制和转口限制。 • 对等关税出台后,比特币、黄金、欧元区及日本资产表现突出,印度市场 作为中国资产的替代也表现优异。近期关税缓释后,这些资产仍保持一定 优势,但黄金和美元近期处于震荡状态,不宜过度短期化长逻辑用于交易, 建议采用定投策略。 • 关税可能拖累全球增长,导致大宗商品价格波动,并影响美元信用和市场 信心。在美股上市的中概股公司首当其冲,反映了市场对对等关税问题的 担忧。美国经济滞胀风险被延后但未消除,高关税带来的供给通胀压力使 得美联储无法降息,加剧了衰退压力。 • 美联储降息预期因高关税受到抑制,若关税下降,降息概率将增加,但可 能是小幅度降息。目前美国通胀水平约为 4%,CPI 在 3.5%到 4%之间, 这使得美联储有一定空间进行降息。美股盈利受拖累程度有所降低,头部 科技公司资本开支提供支撑,纳斯达克估值已修复。 Q&A 中美关税"降级"的资产含义 20250519 中美关税降级 ...
机构论后市丨三条线存在机会;配置上“以我为主,以内为主”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 10:41
①中信证券:中长期维度,三大高确定性趋势仍是选择重心;②财通证券:市场情绪逐步企稳,配置 上"以我为主、以内为主";③长城证券:建议关注红利板块,重视经济周期下大类资产的价格规律。 ①中信证券:5月有三条线存在机会 中信证券表示,对于5月,有三条线存在机会:(1)新技术和产业题材;(2)海外科技映射链修复。 该方向主要受益于前期超跌,以及估值和业绩匹配度较高,建议关注海外算力链挂钩的光模块、PCB、 服务器等;(3)服务业扩内需,包括文旅产业链上的酒店、景区、OTA,以及医疗服务领域的眼科、 齿科、中医等。 ②财通证券:市场情绪逐步企稳,配置上"以我为主、以内为主" 财通证券表示,继汇金等国资增持ETF后市场情绪逐步企稳,3月下旬+4月以来金融/消费表现居前,月 度较全A有明显超额。从最新一季报来看,全A业绩修复,内需相关的食饮景气延续、消费龙头公司表 现更优。配置上"以我为主、以内为主",重视内需支撑+政策预期的大金融地产链、消费、央企重组三 大权重方向,有业绩支撑+胜率催化+补涨动力+赔率性价比,仍是当前阻力较小方向: (1)大金融地产链:券商受益股市向上与央国企合并,股份行受益地产改善+补涨,地产后周期 ...
先知先觉李嘉诚,后知后觉王健林,不知不觉许家印
商业洞察· 2024-11-02 09:37
以下文章来源于大猫财经Pro ,作者大猫财经猫哥 大猫财经Pro . 看懂大趋势、小案例、一起搞钱 作者:猫哥 ----------------------------------------- - - 来源:大猫财经Pro(ID:caimao_shuangquan) 01 风向标,又动了。 最近,李嘉诚在北京抛售房产了,朝阳区东四环,特价房7.6万/㎡,跟近10万的备案价相比,打了7.6 折,这个折扣力度不小,比周边的二手房都便宜。 售楼处说,只有有50套特价房,其他400多套房源都在正常销售。 | 大猫财经Pro | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 楼盘表 | | | | | | | 销售楼名 | 批准销售套数 | 批准销售面积(m2) | 销售状态 | 预售住宅拟售均价(元/m²) | 楼盘表 | | 15#住宅楼 | 14 | 4892.97 | 2023/7/15 0:00:00开盘 | 91458.97 | Tarr | | 16#住宅楼 | 12 | 4149.92 | 2023/7/15 0:00:00开盘 | 91277.4 ...