证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 2026年01月10日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 资金涌入科技巨头，小盘消费开始发力 价格走势：整体回升，小盘与消费发力 本周，标普 500 涨 1.6%，纳斯达克涨 1.9%。 风格：小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长+4.7%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值+4.5%） ＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值+2.5%）＞大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长+0.9%）。 21 个行业上涨，3 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：零售业（+8.4%）、耐用消 费品与服装（+5.2%）、材料（+4.9%）、食品与主要用品零售（+4.1%）、 商业和专业服务（+3.7%）；下跌的主要有：技术硬件与设备（-3.2%）、公 用事业（-1.5%）、电信业务（-0.2%）。 资金流向：资金集中涌入科技巨头 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+130.2（亿美元， 下同），上周为-30.2，近 4 周为+202.6，近 13 周为+201.8。 20 个行业资金流入，4 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：半导体产品与 设备（+27.6）、技术硬件与设备（+17.2）、零售业（+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [4] Core Insights - The overall market trend is fading, with continued capital inflow into the semiconductor sector [2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.0% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 1.5% [1] - Energy sector showed the best performance with a gain of 3.3%, while the automotive sector saw the largest decline at -7.0% [1] Summary by Sections 2.1 Investment Returns - Energy sector recorded a weekly return of 3.3%, while the automotive sector experienced a decline of 7.0% [13] - The capital goods sector increased by 1.1%, and the semiconductor products and equipment sector had a slight gain of 0.2% [13] 2.2 Capital Flows - The estimated net capital inflow for the semiconductor products and equipment sector was $2.061 billion this week [15] - The automotive sector faced significant outflows, with a net capital outflow of $2.562 billion [15] - The capital goods sector saw a net inflow of $394 million [15] 2.3 Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the semiconductor products and equipment sector was adjusted upward by 0.5% this week [16] - The automotive sector's EPS forecast was increased by 0.7% [16] - Overall, the EPS expectations for all 24 sectors have risen [3] 2.4 Valuation Levels - The report does not provide specific valuation levels in the provided content [18]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 2025年12月20日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 半导体业绩上修带动市场回升 资金流向：整体小幅回流，结构偏向科技 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+67.4（亿美元， 下同），上周为-72.0，近 4 周为+281.5，近 13 周为+116.0。 9 个行业资金流入，15 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：半导体产品与 设备（+42.8）、汽车与汽车零部件（+23.6）、软件与服务（+9.4）、技术 硬件与设备（+7.9）、消费者服务（+7.4）；资金流出的主要有：耐用消费 品与服装（-9.8）、食品饮料与烟草（-4.5）、能源（-3.9）、公用事业（-2.6）、 综合金融（-2.3）。 价格走势：科技巨头带动市场回升 盈利预测：半导体带动大盘显著上修 本周，标普 500 涨 0.1%，纳斯达克涨 0.5%。 风格：大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长+0.5%）＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值-0.5%） ＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长-0.7%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值-1.0%）。 9 个行业上涨，15 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,849, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.7% and a year-to-date increase of 16.4%[6] - The Nasdaq 100 index reached 25,435, with a weekly rise of 4.9% and a year-to-date increase of 21.0%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 3.2% this week, with a year-to-date growth of 12.2%[6] Sector Analysis - The automotive and auto parts sector saw a significant weekly increase of 9.3% and a year-to-date increase of 9.9%[9] - The information technology sector reported a weekly rise of 4.6% and a year-to-date increase of 32.8%[9] - The healthcare sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.9% and a year-to-date increase of 21.0%[9] Fund Flows - The energy sector recorded a net inflow of $48 million this week, with a total of $572 million over the past 52 weeks[11] - The materials sector faced a net outflow of $290 million this week, totaling a negative $3.344 billion over the past 52 weeks[11] - The financial sector had a net inflow of $2.106 billion this week, with a total outflow of $6.723 billion over the past 52 weeks[11] Earnings Forecast - The overall EPS adjustment for the energy sector was 0.3% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of -7.4%[14] - The materials sector saw an EPS adjustment of 0.6% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of 4.9%[14] - The information technology sector's EPS adjustment was 0.6% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of 28.0%[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant market downturn due to renewed trade conflicts, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.5% [3] - Only three sectors experienced gains, while 21 sectors saw declines, indicating widespread market fear [3] - The semiconductor sector attracted substantial capital inflows, contrasting with the overall outflow from the market [4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.5% due to trade tensions [3] - The performance of sectors varied, with the Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector increasing by 1.7%, while Durable Goods & Apparel dropped by 8.4% [3] Capital Flows - The estimated capital flow for S&P 500 components was -$40.6 billion, indicating a significant outflow compared to the previous week [4] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector saw a capital inflow of $83.2 million, while the automotive sector experienced a $25.7 million outflow [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.3% upward adjustment in the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for S&P 500 components, with 21 sectors seeing an increase in earnings expectations [5] - The materials sector led the upward revisions with a 1.0% increase, while the energy sector faced a downward adjustment of 0.5% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced narrow fluctuations with most sectors declining, as the S&P 500 fell by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.1% [3] - There were 8 sectors that increased while 16 sectors decreased, with notable gains in Energy (+2.6%), Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+2.4%), and Transportation (+1.2%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that saw significant declines included Telecommunications (-4.8%), Insurance (-2.6%), and Banks (-2.5%) [3] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500's estimated fund flow was -$5.7 billion this week, a decrease from the previous week's +$23.4 billion, with a total of +$216.4 billion over the last 13 weeks [4] - Fund inflows were observed in 11 sectors, with Semiconductor Products and Equipment leading at +$17.2 billion, followed by Transportation (+$6.0 billion) and Energy (+$4.1 billion) [4] - Sectors experiencing fund outflows included Software and Services (-$15.9 billion) and Automotive and Parts (-$8.2 billion) [4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents was adjusted upward by 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase the previous week [5] - Earnings expectations were raised for 21 sectors, with the highest adjustments in Integrated Finance (+0.8%), Automotive and Parts (+0.8%), and Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+0.8%) [5] - Three sectors saw downward revisions, notably Healthcare Equipment and Services (-1.0%) and Telecommunications (-0.2%) [5] Price Performance - The Energy sector recorded a price return of +2.6% this week, while the Telecommunications sector saw a decline of -4.8% [15] - Over the past 52 weeks, the Energy sector has increased by 5.1%, while the Telecommunications sector has decreased by 4.0% [15] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector has shown a remarkable increase of +48.0% over the past 13 weeks [15] Fund Flow Analysis - The Industrial sector led with a net fund inflow of $781 million this week, followed by Energy with $409 million [19] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector also saw significant inflows of $1.716 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] - In contrast, the Software and Services sector experienced the largest outflow of -$1.594 billion [19]