弱于大市·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年10月12日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 贸易冲突再起，全风格恐慌下跌 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 数据速览 价格走势：贸易冲突再起，全风格恐慌下跌 本周，贸易冲突导致市场恐慌下跌。标普500跌2.4%，纳斯达克跌2.5%。 风格方面：大盘成长（罗素1000成长-2.2%）>小盘成长（罗素2000成长-2.6%）>大盘价值（罗素1000价值-2.7%）>小盘价值（罗素2000价值-4.1%）。 3个行业上涨，21个行业下跌。上涨的行业有：食品饮料与烟草（+1.7%）、公用事业（+1.5%）、食品与主要用品零售（+0.3%）；下跌幅度较大的行业有：耐用 消费品与服装（-8.4%）、电信业务（-5.1%）、汽车与汽车零部件（-4.3%）、银行（-4.0%）、能源（-4.0%）。 资金流向： ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market experienced a significant drop despite the favorable news of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, indicating a potential profit-taking behavior among investors after a rapid market rise [2][15]. Market Performance - On September 18, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise close to 3900 points in the morning but fell sharply in the afternoon, with the index dropping over 2% at one point. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.64% [2]. - A total of 1027 stocks rose, with 64 hitting the daily limit up, while 4350 stocks declined [3][4]. Sector Performance - Tourism stocks performed well against the market trend, with Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism hitting the daily limit up [5][6]. - CPO and computing hardware stocks were active, with Dekeli and Changfei Optical Fiber reaching the daily limit up [7][8]. - Semiconductor stocks initially surged but then retreated, with Zhongwei Company and Saiwei Microelectronics rising over 10% [9][10]. - Gold stocks collectively declined, with Xiaocheng Technology dropping over 8% [11][12]. - Brokerage and fintech stocks also faced adjustments, with Guosheng Financial Holdings and Changcheng Securities both declining over 6% [13][14]. Reasons for Market Drop - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut led to profit-taking by investors due to previous rapid market gains. Additionally, unusual selling pressure was observed in brokerage stocks, indicating potential market instability [15].

Core Insights - The recent salon hosted by the Beijing News Shell Finance Capital Market Research Institute focused on how patient capital can stabilize the market, coinciding with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high of 3800 points, driven by sustained inflows of medium to long-term funds [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently stabilized at 3800 points, marking a ten-year high, attributed to the continuous influx of medium to long-term capital [1] - Key contributors to this trend include the acceleration of long-term investment trials by insurance funds, the initiation of public fund long-term assessment reforms, and the optimization of the national social security fund investment management mechanism [1] Group 2: Fund Management Strategies - According to Chen Jingjing from China Post Fund, the potential for investment funds to enter the market is significant, with the transformation of short-term funds into medium to long-term funds dependent on their duration and overall experience regarding returns, volatility, and drawdowns [3] - Fund companies are encouraged to provide high-quality products that balance returns and drawdowns to attract long-term capital, as evidenced by the success of China Post Fund's "steady fixed income plus" strategy [3][4] Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - Fund companies should enhance their product offerings by focusing on sectors with long-term sustainability, such as artificial intelligence, clean energy, and consumer healthcare, while employing strategies that emphasize stable, absolute returns [4] - The performance evaluation of fund managers should prioritize long-term stable returns over short-term rankings to better accommodate the influx of medium to long-term capital [4] Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - Social security funds and insurance capital are becoming the primary sources of medium to long-term institutional capital entering the market, with public equity funds serving as key allocation tools [5] - Institutional investors show a preference for passive equity funds due to their convenience, liquidity, and low-cost attributes, while active management funds are evaluated based on their ability to generate excess returns [6] Group 5: Fund Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2024, the scale of active equity funds is approximately 33.817 billion yuan, with institutional holdings accounting for about 17.5% [7] - Funds with an average institutional holding of over 30% typically exhibit a five-year annualized return greater than 10% or a 2024 return exceeding 20%, indicating that fund companies can attract institutional investors by demonstrating stock-picking capabilities in high-growth sectors or maintaining performance across market cycles [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced narrow fluctuations with most sectors declining, as the S&P 500 fell by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.1% [3] - There were 8 sectors that increased while 16 sectors decreased, with notable gains in Energy (+2.6%), Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+2.4%), and Transportation (+1.2%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that saw significant declines included Telecommunications (-4.8%), Insurance (-2.6%), and Banks (-2.5%) [3] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500's estimated fund flow was -$5.7 billion this week, a decrease from the previous week's +$23.4 billion, with a total of +$216.4 billion over the last 13 weeks [4] - Fund inflows were observed in 11 sectors, with Semiconductor Products and Equipment leading at +$17.2 billion, followed by Transportation (+$6.0 billion) and Energy (+$4.1 billion) [4] - Sectors experiencing fund outflows included Software and Services (-$15.9 billion) and Automotive and Parts (-$8.2 billion) [4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents was adjusted upward by 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase the previous week [5] - Earnings expectations were raised for 21 sectors, with the highest adjustments in Integrated Finance (+0.8%), Automotive and Parts (+0.8%), and Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+0.8%) [5] - Three sectors saw downward revisions, notably Healthcare Equipment and Services (-1.0%) and Telecommunications (-0.2%) [5] Price Performance - The Energy sector recorded a price return of +2.6% this week, while the Telecommunications sector saw a decline of -4.8% [15] - Over the past 52 weeks, the Energy sector has increased by 5.1%, while the Telecommunications sector has decreased by 4.0% [15] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector has shown a remarkable increase of +48.0% over the past 13 weeks [15] Fund Flow Analysis - The Industrial sector led with a net fund inflow of $781 million this week, followed by Energy with $409 million [19] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector also saw significant inflows of $1.716 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] - In contrast, the Software and Services sector experienced the largest outflow of -$1.594 billion [19]