证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 2026年01月10日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 资金涌入科技巨头，小盘消费开始发力 价格走势：整体回升，小盘与消费发力 本周，标普 500 涨 1.6%，纳斯达克涨 1.9%。 风格：小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长+4.7%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值+4.5%） ＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值+2.5%）＞大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长+0.9%）。 21 个行业上涨，3 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：零售业（+8.4%）、耐用消 费品与服装（+5.2%）、材料（+4.9%）、食品与主要用品零售（+4.1%）、 商业和专业服务（+3.7%）；下跌的主要有：技术硬件与设备（-3.2%）、公 用事业（-1.5%）、电信业务（-0.2%）。 资金流向：资金集中涌入科技巨头 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+130.2（亿美元， 下同），上周为-30.2，近 4 周为+202.6，近 13 周为+201.8。 20 个行业资金流入，4 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：半导体产品与 设备（+27.6）、技术硬件与设备（+17.2）、零售业（+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [4] Core Insights - The overall market trend is fading, with continued capital inflow into the semiconductor sector [2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.0% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 1.5% [1] - Energy sector showed the best performance with a gain of 3.3%, while the automotive sector saw the largest decline at -7.0% [1] Summary by Sections 2.1 Investment Returns - Energy sector recorded a weekly return of 3.3%, while the automotive sector experienced a decline of 7.0% [13] - The capital goods sector increased by 1.1%, and the semiconductor products and equipment sector had a slight gain of 0.2% [13] 2.2 Capital Flows - The estimated net capital inflow for the semiconductor products and equipment sector was $2.061 billion this week [15] - The automotive sector faced significant outflows, with a net capital outflow of $2.562 billion [15] - The capital goods sector saw a net inflow of $394 million [15] 2.3 Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the semiconductor products and equipment sector was adjusted upward by 0.5% this week [16] - The automotive sector's EPS forecast was increased by 0.7% [16] - Overall, the EPS expectations for all 24 sectors have risen [3] 2.4 Valuation Levels - The report does not provide specific valuation levels in the provided content [18]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,849, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.7% and a year-to-date increase of 16.4%[6] - The Nasdaq 100 index reached 25,435, with a weekly rise of 4.9% and a year-to-date increase of 21.0%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 3.2% this week, with a year-to-date growth of 12.2%[6] Sector Analysis - The automotive and auto parts sector saw a significant weekly increase of 9.3% and a year-to-date increase of 9.9%[9] - The information technology sector reported a weekly rise of 4.6% and a year-to-date increase of 32.8%[9] - The healthcare sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.9% and a year-to-date increase of 21.0%[9] Fund Flows - The energy sector recorded a net inflow of $48 million this week, with a total of $572 million over the past 52 weeks[11] - The materials sector faced a net outflow of $290 million this week, totaling a negative $3.344 billion over the past 52 weeks[11] - The financial sector had a net inflow of $2.106 billion this week, with a total outflow of $6.723 billion over the past 52 weeks[11] Earnings Forecast - The overall EPS adjustment for the energy sector was 0.3% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of -7.4%[14] - The materials sector saw an EPS adjustment of 0.6% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of 4.9%[14] - The information technology sector's EPS adjustment was 0.6% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of 28.0%[14]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Sanofi and Pfizer, valued at over $6 billion, has sparked a reevaluation of innovative pharmaceutical companies in the capital market [1] - Sanofi's strong pipeline of innovative drugs and the upcoming IPO of its consumer healthcare brand, Mandi International, are central to its valuation [1][2] - Mandi International's financial performance has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase from 982 million RMB in 2022 to 1.455 billion RMB in 2024, and a net profit surge of 64.1% in the first half of 2025 [2][3] Group 1 - Mandi International's core product line, particularly the "Mandi series" for hair loss treatment, has established a strong market presence, holding 57% and 71% market shares in the hair loss and minoxidil markets respectively [3] - The Chinese hair loss medication market is projected to grow from 3.8 billion RMB in 2024 to 16.7 billion RMB by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.5% [3] - Mandi International has successfully launched a second-generation minoxidil foam product, achieving approximately 600 million RMB in revenue within 12 months of its release [3][4] Group 2 - The company has built a robust distribution network, particularly in OTC and e-commerce channels, achieving a 40% compound annual growth rate in online sales from 2022 to 2024 [4] - Mandi International's IPO fundraising will focus on enhancing R&D capabilities, digital operations, and brand development, indicating a strategic shift towards consumer medicine [5][6] - The company is expanding its product pipeline beyond hair loss treatments to include skin and weight management products, with several in various stages of clinical development [6][7] Group 3 - Mandi International's stock structure shows that Sanofi holds approximately 87.16% of the shares, indicating strong backing for its independent growth strategy [7][8] - The management team combines expertise in research, manufacturing, sales, and finance, creating a closed-loop system to support the company's growth [8] - The independent listing of Mandi International is expected to set a new benchmark for consumer healthcare within Sanofi's portfolio, aiming to reshape the future of consumer medicine [8]

Core Insights - A hair loss treatment product from Mandi International, a subsidiary of Sangfor Pharmaceutical, is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially marking the third IPO for the Liu family [1] - Mandi International holds a significant 57% market share in China's hair loss medication market, driven by its flagship product, Mandi® Minoxidil [1][4] - Despite strong financial performance, Mandi International faces challenges such as product concentration, reduced R&D investment, and increasing competition [1][7] Financial Performance - Mandi International's revenue projections for 2022 to 2024 are 982 million RMB, 1.228 billion RMB, and 1.455 billion RMB, with net profits of 202 million RMB, 441 million RMB, and 309 million RMB respectively [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 743 million RMB, a 20.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 174 million RMB, up 64.1% [2] - The gross margin for the company has remained high, with figures of 80.3%, 82.0%, 82.7%, and 81.1% from 2022 to 2025 [3] Product Structure - Over 90% of Mandi International's revenue comes from the Mandi® product line, with the core product Mandi® 5% Minoxidil accounting for 91.3% and 91.6% of revenue in 2022 and 2023 respectively [4] - The company is expanding its product line to include other skin care products and is developing a long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist for weight management, currently in Phase III clinical trials [6] R&D and Marketing - Mandi International's R&D expenses saw a significant drop from 92.2 million RMB in 2024 to 19.5 million RMB in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about its innovation capabilities [7] - In contrast, sales expenses have increased, reaching 374 million RMB in the first half of 2025, which is over 50% of total revenue [9] Market Competition - The hair loss treatment market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Merck and Johnson & Johnson entering the space [12] - Mandi International's core patents are set to expire in 2028, which could lead to a surge in generic products and price competition [12] - The number of registered hair loss shampoos in China has exceeded 400, indicating a crowded market [12] Industry Trends - The global hair loss medication market is projected to reach $2.11 billion in 2024 and $3.175 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 6.1% [12] - The rising interest in consumer healthcare and the potential for high-margin, self-purchased products are attracting capital market attention [13]

Core Viewpoint - A hair loss treatment product from Mandi International, a subsidiary of 3SBio, is expected to lead to a third IPO for the Liu family, amidst a growing hair loss crisis in China, where over 330 million people are affected, with more than 60% under the age of 35 [2][4]. Financial Performance - Mandi International reported impressive financial data, with revenues projected to reach RMB 9.82 billion, RMB 12.28 billion, and RMB 14.55 billion from 2022 to 2024, and net profits of RMB 2.02 billion, RMB 4.41 billion, and RMB 3.09 billion respectively [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 7.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, and a net profit of RMB 1.74 billion, up 64.1% [6]. Product Concentration - Over 90% of Mandi International's revenue comes from the Mandi® product series, with the core product, Mandi® 5% Minoxidil solution, accounting for 91.3% and 91.6% of revenue in 2022 and 2023 respectively [7][8]. R&D and Marketing Expenditure - Despite strong performance, Mandi International's R&D spending saw a significant drop from RMB 9.22 million in 2024 to RMB 1.95 million in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about its innovation capabilities [11]. - Sales expenses have increased significantly, with over 50% of revenue in the first half of 2025 allocated to sales costs, indicating rising customer acquisition costs in a competitive market [13][14]. Market Competition - The hair loss treatment market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Merck and Johnson & Johnson entering the space. The global market for hair loss treatment is projected to reach USD 2.11 billion in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 6.1% [18]. - Mandi International faces potential risks as some of its core patents are set to expire in 2028, which could lead to a flood of generic products and price wars [18]. Industry Trends - The rising incidence of hair loss among younger demographics is transforming "hair health" into a significant consumer pharmaceutical category, attracting capital market interest [19]. - The company's ability to innovate and diversify its product pipeline will be crucial for its future growth potential, especially in a market that has shown clear demand [19].

Core Insights - The issue of hair loss has evolved from a niche concern to a widespread health issue, with over 339 million people in China affected, more than 60% of whom are under 35 years old [1] - Mand International, a company that has pioneered minoxidil products, has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a strong growth opportunity in the hair loss treatment market [1] - The company has maintained a leading position in the Chinese hair loss medication market for the past decade, with its Mand® series of minoxidil products achieving over 50 million bottles sold from 2018 to 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Mand International has shown steady revenue growth, with reported revenues of RMB 982 million in 2022, RMB 1.228 billion in 2023, and RMB 1.455 billion in the first half of 2024 [2][3] - The Mand® product series has consistently contributed over 90% of the company's revenue, reaching a record high of 92.4% in the first half of 2024 [2][3] - The company has maintained a gross margin above 80%, with gross profits of RMB 789 million in 2022 and RMB 1.007 billion in 2023 [4][5] Product and Market Strategy - Mand International is expanding its product portfolio beyond hair health, with new offerings in dermatology and weight management, including the Winlevi® cream for acne and a GLP-1 receptor agonist for weight management [6] - The company has established a robust online and offline sales network, with online sales accounting for 74% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [4][5] - The company is also developing new products targeting female androgenetic alopecia and exploring innovative treatments for hair loss, including a monoclonal antibody targeting prolactin receptors [7][8] Market Position and Future Outlook - Mand International's strategy to diversify its product offerings and strengthen its market position in hair health is expected to drive future growth [6][8] - The company's upcoming listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is seen as a significant step towards capitalizing on the growing consumer healthcare market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant market downturn due to renewed trade conflicts, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.5% [3] - Only three sectors experienced gains, while 21 sectors saw declines, indicating widespread market fear [3] - The semiconductor sector attracted substantial capital inflows, contrasting with the overall outflow from the market [4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.5% due to trade tensions [3] - The performance of sectors varied, with the Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector increasing by 1.7%, while Durable Goods & Apparel dropped by 8.4% [3] Capital Flows - The estimated capital flow for S&P 500 components was -$40.6 billion, indicating a significant outflow compared to the previous week [4] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector saw a capital inflow of $83.2 million, while the automotive sector experienced a $25.7 million outflow [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.3% upward adjustment in the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for S&P 500 components, with 21 sectors seeing an increase in earnings expectations [5] - The materials sector led the upward revisions with a 1.0% increase, while the energy sector faced a downward adjustment of 0.5% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market experienced a significant drop despite the favorable news of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, indicating a potential profit-taking behavior among investors after a rapid market rise [2][15]. Market Performance - On September 18, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise close to 3900 points in the morning but fell sharply in the afternoon, with the index dropping over 2% at one point. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.64% [2]. - A total of 1027 stocks rose, with 64 hitting the daily limit up, while 4350 stocks declined [3][4]. Sector Performance - Tourism stocks performed well against the market trend, with Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism hitting the daily limit up [5][6]. - CPO and computing hardware stocks were active, with Dekeli and Changfei Optical Fiber reaching the daily limit up [7][8]. - Semiconductor stocks initially surged but then retreated, with Zhongwei Company and Saiwei Microelectronics rising over 10% [9][10]. - Gold stocks collectively declined, with Xiaocheng Technology dropping over 8% [11][12]. - Brokerage and fintech stocks also faced adjustments, with Guosheng Financial Holdings and Changcheng Securities both declining over 6% [13][14]. Reasons for Market Drop - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut led to profit-taking by investors due to previous rapid market gains. Additionally, unusual selling pressure was observed in brokerage stocks, indicating potential market instability [15].

Core Insights - The recent salon hosted by the Beijing News Shell Finance Capital Market Research Institute focused on how patient capital can stabilize the market, coinciding with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high of 3800 points, driven by sustained inflows of medium to long-term funds [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently stabilized at 3800 points, marking a ten-year high, attributed to the continuous influx of medium to long-term capital [1] - Key contributors to this trend include the acceleration of long-term investment trials by insurance funds, the initiation of public fund long-term assessment reforms, and the optimization of the national social security fund investment management mechanism [1] Group 2: Fund Management Strategies - According to Chen Jingjing from China Post Fund, the potential for investment funds to enter the market is significant, with the transformation of short-term funds into medium to long-term funds dependent on their duration and overall experience regarding returns, volatility, and drawdowns [3] - Fund companies are encouraged to provide high-quality products that balance returns and drawdowns to attract long-term capital, as evidenced by the success of China Post Fund's "steady fixed income plus" strategy [3][4] Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - Fund companies should enhance their product offerings by focusing on sectors with long-term sustainability, such as artificial intelligence, clean energy, and consumer healthcare, while employing strategies that emphasize stable, absolute returns [4] - The performance evaluation of fund managers should prioritize long-term stable returns over short-term rankings to better accommodate the influx of medium to long-term capital [4] Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - Social security funds and insurance capital are becoming the primary sources of medium to long-term institutional capital entering the market, with public equity funds serving as key allocation tools [5] - Institutional investors show a preference for passive equity funds due to their convenience, liquidity, and low-cost attributes, while active management funds are evaluated based on their ability to generate excess returns [6] Group 5: Fund Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2024, the scale of active equity funds is approximately 33.817 billion yuan, with institutional holdings accounting for about 17.5% [7] - Funds with an average institutional holding of over 30% typically exhibit a five-year annualized return greater than 10% or a 2024 return exceeding 20%, indicating that fund companies can attract institutional investors by demonstrating stock-picking capabilities in high-growth sectors or maintaining performance across market cycles [7]