Core Viewpoint - Expedia Group (EXPE) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 8, with revenues estimated at $3.03 billion, reflecting a 4.76% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share projected at 42 cents, indicating a 100% increase from the previous year [1][4]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPE's first-quarter 2025 revenues is $3.03 billion, a 4.76% increase from the prior year's quarter [1]. - The earnings consensus is 42 cents per share, revised down by 2 cents in the last 30 days, but still suggests a 100% increase year-over-year [1]. Historical Performance - EXPE has exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 45.86% [2]. Growth Factors - The company's performance is anticipated to be influenced by international demand, strategic investments, and cost discipline [4]. - Gross bookings are projected to grow by 4% to 6%, with revenue growth expected between 3% to 5%, excluding a two-point foreign exchange headwind and the Easter shift [5]. - Underlying growth, when excluding these factors, is expected to be between 7% to 9% [5]. Segment Performance - Vrbo is likely to continue its growth momentum, supported by expanded urban inventory and improved supply quality [6]. - Brand Expedia is expected to benefit from merchandising actions in air and package products, driving incremental bookings without additional marketing costs [6]. - The B2B segment, which accounted for 27% of total bookings in 2024, is expected to remain strong, particularly in the APAC region [7]. - Advertising revenues, which grew by 25% in the fourth quarter, are anticipated to continue being a significant contributor to top-line growth [8]. Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA margins for the first quarter are expected to remain flat to slightly up year-over-year, reflecting sustained overhead and marketing efficiency [9]. - Cost-saving actions taken in 2024 are expected to support profitability despite seasonal and foreign exchange pressures [9]. Earnings Outlook - According to the Zacks model, EXPE has a positive Earnings ESP of +14.86% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [10].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Expedia (EXPE) will report quarterly earnings of $0.42 per share, reflecting a 100% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $3.03 billion, a 4.8% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 4.9% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation of initial estimates by analysts [2]. - Prior to earnings releases, revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts predict 'Revenue- B2B' will reach $924.59 million, marking an 11% increase year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenue by Service Type- Lodging' is expected to be $2.36 billion, reflecting a 6.1% year-over-year change [5]. - 'Revenue- Trivago' is projected at $74.76 million, indicating a 6.8% increase from the prior year [5]. - 'Revenue by Service Type- Air' is estimated at $114.41 million, suggesting a slight decline of 0.5% year-over-year [6]. - 'Revenue- Advertising, Media and other' is expected to reach $277.37 million, a 12.3% increase from the previous year [6]. - 'Revenue- International' is projected at $1.22 billion, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-over-year [7]. - 'Revenue- United States' is estimated at $1.85 billion, indicating a 3.3% year-over-year change [7]. Gross Bookings - Analysts forecast 'Gross bookings - Total' to reach $31.85 billion, compared to $30.16 billion from the previous year [7]. - 'Gross bookings - Merchant' is expected to be $18.83 billion, up from $16.86 billion year-over-year [8]. - 'Gross bookings - Agency' is projected at $13.81 billion, compared to $13.30 billion from the prior year [9]. Key Metrics - The consensus estimate for 'Stayed room nights/ Booked room nights' stands at 106, up from 101 year-over-year [8]. - 'Stayed Room Night /Booked room nights Growth' is expected to be 8.1%, compared to 7% in the same quarter last year [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Expedia have returned +14.1%, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% [9].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Expedia, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates, which could significantly impact stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Expedia is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.42 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +100% [3]. - Revenue is projected to be $3.03 billion, representing a 4.8% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 4.85% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - A positive Earnings ESP of +14.86% suggests analysts have recently become more optimistic about Expedia's earnings prospects [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8]. - Expedia currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, along with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Expedia exceeded the expected earnings of $2.07 per share by delivering $2.39, resulting in a surprise of +15.46% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Expedia has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [13]. Industry Comparison - In the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry, TripAdvisor is expected to report earnings of $0.05 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of -58.3% [17]. - TripAdvisor's revenue is anticipated to be $389.03 million, down 1.5% from the previous year [17]. - The consensus EPS estimate for TripAdvisor has been revised down by 10% over the last 30 days, resulting in a negative Earnings ESP of -17.24% [18].

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. government has severely disrupted the global economy and significantly impacted the U.S. tourism market, leading to a sharp decline in stock prices of various travel-related companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Travel Companies - Major U.S. travel companies, including Carnival Cruise and Norwegian Cruise, have seen substantial stock price declines, with Carnival down 7.94% in April and 29.77% over the past three months, while Norwegian Cruise fell 12.39% in April and 38.57% over the same period [1][2]. - The hotel industry is also heavily affected, with Marriott's stock down 7.3% in April and 20.57% over three months, and Hyatt down 12.52% in April and 31.38% over three months [1][2][3]. - U.S. airlines experienced significant stock drops, with United Airlines plummeting 15.61% and American Airlines and Delta Airlines both dropping over 10% on April 3 [2]. Group 2: Economic Pressures on the Industry - The tourism sector is facing dual pressures from rising costs and declining demand, with airlines contending with increased component and fuel costs, as well as shrinking international route demand [3]. - The tariffs have led to soaring prices for aircraft components from Boeing, increasing maintenance and upgrade costs for airlines, potentially pushing them to consider purchasing from Airbus instead [3]. - The hotel industry is also struggling with rising international procurement costs and renovation expenses due to tariffs, which compress profit margins [3]. Group 3: Changes in the Inbound Tourism Market - The tariffs have caused a significant downturn in the inbound tourism market, which has traditionally generated a substantial trade surplus for the U.S. tourism industry [4]. - The U.S. tourism industry is projected to generate approximately $1.3 trillion in revenue in 2024, supporting around 15 million jobs, but the tariffs are expected to negatively impact this revenue [4][5]. - A decline in Canadian visitors, who accounted for 20.2 million trips to the U.S. last year, could result in a loss of $2.1 billion in consumer spending and potentially lead to 14,000 job losses [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Shifts - The U.S. tourism industry is forecasted to lose $72 billion in revenue by 2025 due to a significant drop in inbound visitors, affecting hotels, airlines, and dining sectors [5]. - In light of the downturn in traditional tourist destinations, there is a shift towards more resilient regional markets, with increased travel expected in areas like Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [5].

Industry Overview - The tourism sector is experiencing a rebound, leading to increased opportunities for online travel booking and searching platforms in 2025 [1] - Competition remains high due to factors such as market accessibility, technological advancements, and price sensitivity, which lower entry barriers for new companies [1] Company Insights - The logistics sector has been a focus for nearly two decades, with significant experience in stock investing and macroeconomic analysis [1] - The company has diversified its investments across various industries and market capitalizations, including banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels [1] - The company has been active in both the ASEAN and US markets, with holdings in banks, hotels, shipping, and logistics companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article compares two Internet - Commerce stocks, Expedia (EXPE) and MercadoLibre (MELI), to determine which is more attractive to value investors [1]. Valuation Metrics - Both EXPE and MELI currently hold a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive earnings estimate revisions and an improving earnings outlook for both companies [3]. - EXPE has a forward P/E ratio of 9.56, while MELI has a forward P/E of 38.76, suggesting that EXPE may be undervalued compared to MELI [5]. - The PEG ratio for EXPE is 0.52, indicating a favorable valuation when considering expected earnings growth, whereas MELI has a PEG ratio of 1.03 [5]. - EXPE's P/B ratio is 6.53, compared to MELI's P/B of 21.45, further supporting the notion that EXPE is more attractively valued [6]. Value Grades - Based on the valuation metrics, EXPE has a Value grade of B, while MELI has a Value grade of D, indicating that EXPE is currently the superior value option [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Expedia's stock has experienced a decline of 6.6% over the past month, although it has outperformed the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry, which saw declines of 7.6% and 9.4% respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Guidance - The company anticipates lower revenue growth of 3-5% for Q1 2025, compared to 8% growth in the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 earnings is currently at 43 cents per share, a significant increase from 7 cents per share over the past 30 days, indicating year-over-year growth of 104.76% [3] - For 2025, Expedia expects revenue growth in the range of 4-6% year-over-year, with a consensus revenue estimate of $3.03 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.87% [3] - The company has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 45.86% [4] Group 2: Challenges and Competition - Expedia faces foreign exchange headwinds and lower bookings due to the Leap Year and Easter shift to April, along with a seasonal decline in travel demand impacting the broader market [5] - The company is under intense competitive pressure from rivals such as Booking Holdings, Tripadvisor, and Airbnb, which have expanded their offerings and improved their business models [6] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Expedia has planned several initiatives for 2025, including the integration of Generative AI technology to enhance personalization, optimize marketing, improve customer service, drive operational efficiency, and strengthen B2B partnerships [7] - The company is also partnering with Flex Pay to offer flexible payment options for cruise bookings in the U.S. and Canada, which is expected to increase bookings and conversion rates [8] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite strong travel demand and new initiatives, Expedia's weak Q1 2025 guidance, foreign exchange challenges, and intense competition suggest that holding the stock may be the best approach for now, as indicated by its Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [9]

Core Insights - Expedia Group has partnered with Flex Pay to introduce flexible payment options for travelers booking cruises, allowing payments to be spread over 3 to 24 months [1][2][3] - The initiative aims to make travel more accessible and affordable, enabling travelers to manage their budgets effectively while enjoying cruise experiences [2][3] - Flex Pay has demonstrated success in increasing booking volume, conversion rates, and order value by 15-25% through its no-interest financing options [3] Company Overview - Expedia Group is a leading travel technology company that operates multiple brands including Expedia Cruises, Expedia.com, Travelocity.com, Orbitz.com, and Cheaptickets.com [1][2] - The company believes in the positive impact of travel and aims to provide memorable experiences while facilitating partner growth through innovative technology solutions [5] - Flex Pay, a Buy Now, Pay Later solution from Upgrade, has provided over $36 billion in responsible credit to more than 6 million customers since its inception in 2017 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the Internet - Commerce sector should consider Expedia (EXPE) and Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) for potential value opportunities, with a current preference for EXPE due to its stronger valuation metrics and improving earnings outlook [1]. Valuation Metrics - Expedia has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a more favorable earnings estimate revision trend compared to Coupang, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The forward P/E ratio for EXPE is 12.98, significantly lower than CPNG's forward P/E of 64.94, suggesting that EXPE is undervalued relative to its earnings potential [5]. - EXPE's PEG ratio is 0.71, while CPNG's PEG ratio is 64.29, further indicating that EXPE is a better value option when considering expected earnings growth [5]. - The P/B ratio for EXPE is 8.91, compared to CPNG's P/B of 10.44, reinforcing the notion that EXPE offers a more attractive valuation [6]. - Based on these metrics, EXPE has earned a Value grade of B, while CPNG has a Value grade of D, highlighting the relative undervaluation of EXPE [6]. Earnings Outlook - EXPE is currently experiencing an improving earnings outlook, which enhances its attractiveness in the Zacks Rank model, positioning it as the superior value option at this time [7].

Core Viewpoint - Expedia (EXPE) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which reflects EPS estimates from sell-side analysts for the current and following years [1][2]. - Changes in a company's future earnings potential, as indicated by earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for Expedia suggest an improvement in the company's underlying business, which could lead to higher stock prices as investors respond positively [5][10]. Performance of Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank stock-rating system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced distribution of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings, ensuring that only the top 20% of stocks are rated highly based on earnings estimate revisions [9][10]. Specific Earnings Estimates for Expedia - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Expedia is expected to earn $14.91 per share, reflecting a 23.1% increase from the previous year [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Expedia has increased by 11.7%, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [8].