Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is a major travel technology company and one of the world’s largest online travel platforms. Headquartered in Seattle, Washington, it operates a broad portfolio of travel brands and digital services that enable consumers and partners to research, plan, book, and manage travel across flights, hotels, vacation rentals, car rentals, cruises, and activities With a market cap of $34.7 billion, the company is firmly positioned in the large-cap segment. It generates revenue from trans ...

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's US Internet 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Internet** sector, providing insights into market performance, macroeconomic factors, and company-specific forecasts for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **2025 Performance Recap**: - The internet sector outperformed the S&P 500 by 17% in 2025, with average performance across market caps showing significant variation: - Large Cap: +19% - Mid-Cap: +42% - Small Cap: +21% - Smaller Cap (<$2B): -16% [12][13] 2. **2026 Macro Outlook**: - J.P. Morgan economists estimate a **35% risk of recession** in 2026, with expectations of resilient global growth driven by fiscal stimulus and capital expenditure [19][23]. - Key economic indicators include: - GDP Growth: 1.8% in 2026 - Inflation: Expected to remain above 3% CPI - Unemployment: Projected to peak at 4.5% in Q1 2026 [21][19]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: - **Top Picks for 2026** include: - Alphabet (Overweight, $385 PT): Growth driven by AI and cloud services [46]. - Amazon (Overweight, $305 PT): Expected growth in AWS and retail segments [51]. - DoorDash (Overweight, $300 PT): Anticipated GOV growth of 18% CAGR from 2025-2028 [57]. - Spotify (Overweight, $805 PT): Projected revenue growth driven by premium subscriptions [66]. 4. **AI and Cloud Growth**: - AI is expected to significantly drive cloud growth, with Google Cloud projected to grow in the mid-40% range and AWS adding the highest estimated revenue in 2026 [101][102]. - The report highlights the importance of AI in enhancing operational efficiencies and driving revenue growth across various sectors [78]. 5. **Valuation Metrics**: - The S&P 500 is projected to have a price target of **$7,500** by the end of 2026, suggesting a 9% upside [26]. - Internet companies are trading at an average of **10.2x 2027E EV/EBITDA**, with expected revenue growth of approximately **13% CAGR** from 2025 to 2027 [40]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: - The report discusses the competitive landscape in the AI space, noting that leading model developers like Google and OpenAI are pushing the frontier, but competition remains intense [89][94]. - The potential for AI-driven advertising and e-commerce growth is highlighted, with expectations for significant market share shifts in the online ad market [112]. 2. **Company-Specific Catalysts**: - Alphabet's AI tools are expected to enhance productivity and revenue, while Amazon's AWS is set to double its capacity by 2027 [56][88]. - DoorDash is focusing on expanding its marketplace and improving unit economics, while Spotify is ramping up its free cash flow and operating margins [60][68]. 3. **Key Questions for 2026**: - The report raises critical questions regarding AI monetization, the impact of AI on cloud growth, and the potential for disruption in various sectors, including travel and e-commerce [76][124]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections for the US Internet sector as outlined in the J.P. Morgan report, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and investment opportunities for 2026.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Online Travel Agents (OTAs) sector, specifically analyzing companies such as Airbnb (ABNB), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Expedia (EXPE), and Tripadvisor (TRIP) [1][2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments Demand and Traffic Trends - Q4 demand for OTAs is strong, with traffic data indicating volumes are running 1-2% ahead of consensus expectations [1]. - Specific traffic growth estimates for Q4 include: - TRIP: 1% beat - ABNB/BKNG: 1.5% beat - EXPE: 2% beat [2]. - Booking and Expedia have experienced double-digit web traffic growth in November, while Airbnb has not seen similar acceleration [2]. Company-Specific Insights Airbnb (ABNB) - Airbnb's stock has been stagnant due to decelerating top-line growth, but there are signs of potential acceleration with QTD data suggesting a growth increase from 18% to 20% [3]. - New initiatives, including natural language search and partnerships, are expected to drive growth [3]. - Q4 projections indicate 119.1 million nights booked, slightly ahead of consensus [38]. Booking Holdings (BKNG) - Booking is expected to beat its Q4 targets, driven by a growing B2B push and strong web traffic [4]. - The company is focusing on AI opportunities, including a widening Total Addressable Market (TAM) and launching tools for better cross-selling [39]. - Estimated room night growth for Q4 is 7.8%, ahead of guidance [19]. Expedia (EXPE) - Expedia has turned a corner operationally, with strong Q4 traffic trends and expected room night growth of 9.5% [49]. - Despite this, revenue growth remains slower than Booking, raising concerns about its higher valuation multiple [5]. Tripadvisor (TRIP) - Tripadvisor's traffic is mixed, with Viator showing growth while TheFork has slowed [60]. - Total revenue expectations for Q4 are slightly ahead of consensus, driven by Viator's performance [61]. Additional Important Insights - The ongoing debate about AI's impact on the OTA sector remains a key risk, with concerns about AI agents potentially disrupting pricing and data access [1]. - The World Cup is anticipated to provide a boost to Airbnb's volumes, with a potential $3.6 billion impact [51]. - Booking's CFO highlighted a $170 million investment program aimed at growth initiatives, indicating a proactive approach to market challenges [39]. Investment Ratings - Ratings for the companies are as follows: - Airbnb: Outperform - Tripadvisor: Outperform - Booking: Market-Perform - Expedia: Market-Perform [7]. Conclusion - The OTA sector shows promising demand trends heading into Q4, with individual companies positioned differently based on their growth strategies and market dynamics. The potential impact of AI and macroeconomic factors will be critical to monitor in the coming quarters.

Group 1 - Expedia Group, Inc. is considered a cheaper investment option compared to Booking Holdings, trading at just over 15 times next year's earnings versus roughly 20 times for Booking [1] - The company is projected to achieve an 18% earnings growth next year while selling for 13 times next year's earnings, indicating it is undervalued [2] - Jim Cramer recommends sticking with Expedia due to its strong performance in the third quarter and the resilience of consumers [1][2] Group 2 - Expedia operates various travel platforms offering lodging, flights, car rentals, vacation rentals, and package options [2] - Despite the potential of Expedia, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk [2]

Core Viewpoint - Three stocks, Dollar General, Expedia Group, and EPAM Systems, have shown strong upward momentum and are considered promising investments heading into 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar General - Dollar General's share price increased over 32% in the past month, driven by strong fiscal third-quarter results [5][8]. - The company reported a 4.6% year-over-year sales increase to $10.6 billion and a 43.8% rise in earnings per share to $1.28, surpassing Wall Street's estimate of $0.93 [5][8]. - Gross profit margin improved by 107 basis points to 29.9%, indicating enhanced profitability [5]. - The company opened 196 new stores and remodeled 1,175 locations during the quarter [6]. - Management raised earnings per share guidance for 2025 to a range of $6.30 to $6.50, up from $5.80 to $6.30 [8]. Group 2: Expedia Group - Expedia Group's stock rose nearly 23% in the past month, fueled by robust third-quarter results and an increased full-year revenue forecast [10][11]. - Revenue for the quarter increased by 9% to $4.4 billion, while gross bookings surged by 12% to almost $31 billion [10]. - Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 6%-7%, up from 3%-5%, and gross bookings growth is now projected at 7% [10][11]. - The positive results are attributed to rising travel demand, the use of artificial intelligence, and improved cost control [11]. Group 3: EPAM Systems - EPAM Systems' stock has rebounded over 26% in the past month, following a strong third-quarter earnings report [12][13]. - Adjusted earnings per share increased by 14.3% year-over-year, and revenue grew by 1.7%, both exceeding Wall Street expectations [13]. - Management raised full-year revenue guidance to a range of $4.69 billion to $4.7 billion, up from $4.59 billion to $4.63 billion, and adjusted profit outlook to between $10.73 and $10.81, up from $10.20 to $10.40 [14].

Stock Picks Overview - Zacks' top stock picks are strong buys with a one to three-month recommendation based on analyst earnings estimates [1][2] - The segment features two companies: a silver miner and a travel company [2] Buenaventura Mining (BVN) Analysis - Buenaventura Mining, a silver miner based in Peru, also mines gold and copper [3][4] - The company is investing in a new mine, increasing capital expenditure [3] - Earnings are expected to increase by 195% this year and 337% next year [6] - The company pays a dividend of 17% [8] - The company's cash position was 4857 million at the end of the third quarter, with net debt at 2249 million [9] - The stock is trading at 13 times earnings [10] Expedia Group (EXPE) Analysis - Expedia Group has a forward P/E of 17 times and a PEG ratio under one, indicating both value and growth [11][12] - 2025 earnings are expected to grow by 24%, with another 20% growth in 2026 [12] - Analyst estimates have been revised upwards, with five up in the last 60 days for this year and seven up for next year [13] - The consensus estimate for this year is 1509, up from 1413, and for next year is 1823, up from 1669 [14] - Concerns exist about consumer spending on travel if a recession occurs, but current bookings and revenue are strong [15] - Shares are up over 40% year-to-date [17]

Core Insights - The current economic environment shows rising unemployment and inflation, with over 150,000 layoffs in October, leading to a decline in consumer sentiment to its lowest since 2022 [1] - Despite these challenges, travel demand remains strong, particularly among affluent consumers, which is expected to benefit companies in the travel sector [2][4] Company Performance - Delta Air Lines has been added to the "Best Stocks in the Market" list by Ritholtz Wealth Management, highlighting its operational performance and focus on premium experiences [3][6] - In Q3, Delta's high-margin segments, including premium and loyalty services, accounted for 60% of its total revenue, indicating resilience among affluent customers [4] - Expedia has also been recognized for its strong performance, with an 11% increase in room bookings in Q3, attributed to significant growth in the U.S. market [5][6] Market Trends - The travel sector, including airlines and cruise lines, has reported resilient results despite economic fears, suggesting that consumer travel spending is not slowing down [3][6] - Companies like Delta and Expedia demonstrate that high service quality and pricing power can lead to positive returns even in challenging economic conditions [5][6]

Core Insights - Expedia (EXPE) has significantly outperformed its Retail-Wholesale peers in year-to-date performance, gaining approximately 40.2% compared to the sector average of 6.7% [4] - The Zacks Rank system indicates a strong buy for Expedia, with a current rank of 1, reflecting positive analyst sentiment and a 9.3% increase in the consensus earnings estimate for the full year [3] Company Performance - Expedia is one of 197 stocks in the Retail-Wholesale sector, which is currently ranked 8 in the Zacks Sector Rank [2] - The stock belongs to the Internet - Commerce industry, which includes 34 stocks and is ranked 96 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with an average gain of 9% this year [5] Comparative Analysis - Another outperforming stock in the Retail-Wholesale sector is FGI Industries Ltd. (FGI), which has returned 94.8% year-to-date, with a consensus EPS estimate increase of 37.5% over the past three months [4][5] - In contrast, the Retail - Home Furnishings industry, where FGI operates, has seen a decline of 16.8% since the beginning of the year, indicating a stark difference in performance compared to Expedia [6]

Core Insights - Expedia Group has announced an agreement to acquire Tiqets, a global platform for activities and experiences based in Amsterdam, which will enhance its capabilities in the growing travel segment of activities and experiences [1][2] - The integration of Tiqets will allow Expedia Group to offer a more comprehensive travel solution, combining curated experiences with its extensive travel supply, thereby unlocking new growth opportunities for partners [2][3] Company Overview - Expedia Group operates several flagship consumer brands, including Expedia®, Hotels.com®, and Vrbo®, and provides technology solutions to facilitate partner growth and enhance traveler experiences [4][5] - Tiqets is a leading online booking platform for museums and attractions, available in over 60 countries and 1,000 cities, aiming to help travelers discover cultural experiences [7] Strategic Vision - The acquisition is seen as a key step towards building a comprehensive global travel solution, integrating activities, air, car, and insurance through expanded APIs [3] - Both companies believe that their combined strengths will transform the travel experience for both travelers and partners, enhancing the value delivered [3] Transaction Details - The transaction is subject to Works Council advice and customary closing conditions, with an expected closure in the first quarter of 2026 [3]

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