携程(TCOM.US)盘前涨约2.5%，报76.99美元。消息面上，携程近日发布的元旦旅行报告显示，2026年 元旦假期，国内旅游市场迎来强劲开局，文旅消费热潮全面点燃，国内景区门票预订量同比增长超4 倍，入境游相关预订亦大幅提升，掀起了2026年度首个消费热潮。 花旗研报指，元旦国内出游表现平稳，但跨境旅游人次表现稳健。该行认为即将到来的春节更为重要， 并预期表现将较为强劲，因为2026年春节假期为9天，较2025年多一天。该行维持对携程的"买入"评 级。(格隆汇) ...

Industry Overview - The service consumption sector in China has significant growth potential, with the current GDP per capita exceeding $13,000, indicating a shift from goods to service consumption as the economy matures [4][7][24] - The proportion of development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented service consumption in China is relatively low, particularly in cultural, leisure, and health sectors, suggesting substantial room for improvement [4][7][24] - Recent government policies at both central and local levels have been introduced to support service consumption, focusing on the needs of the elderly and Generation Z, which are expected to drive growth in health, tourism, and new consumption sectors [4][7][24] Tourism and Travel - The domestic tourism market is projected to grow significantly, with 4.998 billion trips expected in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [8][46] - The government has implemented various supportive policies to enhance tourism, including the issuance of travel vouchers and promotional activities to stimulate demand [8][58] - The tourism industry is undergoing consolidation, with companies optimizing resources and enhancing operational efficiency to drive high-quality development [8][58] Local Lifestyle - The restaurant industry is expected to see steady growth, although there is significant market differentiation, with high-end dining facing challenges while mass dining remains robust [10][10] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing growth driven by delivery services, with leading brands expanding their store presence despite potential challenges from subsidy reductions [10][10] - Meituan is facing increased competition in the delivery market, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and service quality to enhance long-term value [10][10] Education and Employment - The education sector is gradually recovering, with leading institutions expected to gain market share due to their brand strength and resource capabilities [11][11] - The human resources sector is seeing structural demand recovery, with AI technology providing opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [11][11] Summary of Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in sectors that combine valuation safety margins with growth logic, particularly in health, tourism, and new consumption areas driven by demographic changes [4][7][24]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings (BKNG) is approaching a significant inflection point, with its stock price entering a historically supportive range that has previously led to substantial gains [2][3] - The stock is currently trading within the $4,529.60–$5,006.40 support band, which has historically attracted buyers and resulted in an average peak gain of 19.9% after testing this area [3] - A rebound is likely due to strong Q3 2025 results, bullish analyst sentiment, and favorable travel demand trends [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 results exceeded expectations, with gross bookings increasing by 14% and adjusted EPS rising by 19% [4] - Booking Holdings has demonstrated revenue growth of 13.0% over the last twelve months and an average of 17.8% over the last three years [10] - The company has a free cash flow margin of 31.9% and an operating margin of 34.5% for the last twelve months [10] Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Analysts predominantly maintain "Buy" ratings for BKNG, with average price targets indicating significant upside potential [4] - Industry tailwinds, including resilient global travel demand and the rapid adoption of travel technology, contribute to a favorable market environment for the company [4] Risks and Historical Performance - BKNG has experienced significant declines in past market downturns, including a 90% drop during the Dot-Com bust and a 66% decline during the Global Financial Crisis [6] - The stock is vulnerable to sell-offs even in stable market conditions, influenced by earnings announcements and business updates [7] Valuation Metrics - BKNG is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 30.6 [10]

周二，携程网(TCOM.US)涨3%，报73.04美元。财报显示，今年第三季度，携程净营业收入约183亿 元，同比增长16%；归母净利润约199亿元，同比增长192.6%；经调整EBITDA(息税折旧及摊销前利润) 约63.46亿元。第三季度携程国际OTA平台总预订同比增长约60%，其中入境旅游预订同比增长超过 100%，出境酒店和机票预订已全面超越2019年疫情前同期140%水平。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周二，携程网(TCOM.US)涨3%，报73.04美元。财报显示，今年第三季度，携程净 营业收入约183亿元，同比增长16%；归母净利润约199亿元，同比增长192.6%；经调整EBITDA(息税折 旧及摊销前利润)约63.46亿元。第三季度携程国际OTA平台总预订同比增长约60%，其中入境旅游预订 同比增长超过100%，出境酒店和机票预订已全面超越2019年疫情前同期140%水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline, with technology and automotive stocks leading the downturn, while Ctrip Group's strong quarterly performance stands out as a positive highlight in the online travel sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices in the Hong Kong stock market fell collectively on November 18, with technology stocks experiencing widespread declines and automotive stocks weakening [1] - The largest ETF in the A-share sector, the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180), followed the index down, with significant declines in holdings such as XPeng Motors, Lenovo Group, Xiaomi Group, NIO, Li Auto, and BYD [1] Group 2: Ctrip Group's Financial Performance - Ctrip Group reported a net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16%, driven by sustained global travel demand [1] - The company's net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial increase from 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 3: International Business Growth - Ctrip's international business showed remarkable performance, with total bookings on its international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-on-year, and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [1] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings have surged to 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [1] Group 4: Industry Insights - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the revenue growth of online travel companies is outpacing the overall travel market, benefiting from improved online conversion rates and a predominance of leisure travelers [1] - Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel have not been adversely affected by new competitors entering the market this year; instead, domestic marketing efficiency has improved, and the growth rates for outbound travel and pure overseas business provide long-term performance growth drivers [1]

Core Insights - Expedia reported earnings per share (EPS) of $757, exceeding estimates of $692, indicating strong financial performance [1] - Revenue also surpassed expectations, coming in at $4.1 billion compared to estimates of $4.28 billion [1] - Booked room nights reached 108 million, exceeding estimates of 103.87 million, reflecting robust consumer demand [1][2] - The company anticipates fourth quarter revenue growth of 6 to 8%, significantly higher than the estimated 2.7% [1] Market Reaction - Shares of Expedia increased by almost 9% following the earnings report, indicating positive market sentiment [2] - The strong report suggests that consumers are willing to spend discretionary income on travel, which is a positive sign for the industry [2][3] - The upcoming holiday travel season is expected to benefit from this strong consumer spending trend [3] Performance Context - The reported numbers are considered "huge" and well above expectations, which is crucial for favorable market reactions [3][4] - The performance indicates a strong consumer base, although it is important to monitor which segments of consumers are driving this spending [3]

Core Insights - The online travel platform "Qunar" reported a significant increase in both inbound and outbound travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period in China, indicating a strong recovery in the tourism sector [1][2] Inbound Travel - Inbound travel saw a more than 30% year-on-year increase in the number of flight bookings made by foreign passport holders for domestic flights in China, covering nearly 100 cities [1] - The top ten cities favored by foreign tourists included Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Qingdao, Haikou, and Shenyang [1] - Shanxi Datong led in the growth of foreign flight bookings, with an increase of over 700%, followed by Lijiang in Yunnan with over 500%, and Yinchuan in Ningxia with over 400% [1] - The countries with the highest number of tourists visiting China were South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore, with Mongolia showing the fastest growth in flight bookings to China, increasing by over 900% [1] Outbound Travel - Outbound travel also experienced a significant increase, with flight bookings for popular destinations rising by over 30% year-on-year [2] - The age group of 23 to 30 years accounted for 39% of users purchasing outbound tickets, while those aged 31 to 40 made up 30% [2] - The platform recorded hotel bookings in 4,588 cities outside of China, with the top ten countries for hotel reservations being Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, Russia, the United States, and Singapore [2] - Egypt saw the highest growth in hotel bookings, with a year-on-year increase of 200%, while Norway's hotel bookings rose by 120% [2]

Core Insights - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday has led to a significant increase in tourist activity, with many scenic spots experiencing sold-out tickets on the first day of the holiday [1][2] - The holiday period, lasting 8 days, has resulted in an extended average stay for tourists, with a notable increase in visitors staying 7-8 days in the same city compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The newly recognized UNESCO World Heritage site, the Western Xia Tombs, has seen a surge in interest, with a 114% increase in search volume since September 1 [1][2] Tourist Trends - The peak travel day was October 1, with a sustained travel trend expected from September 27 to October 12, indicating a shift towards later holiday travel [3] - There is a growing trend of tourists opting for less crowded, cost-effective county-level destinations, with a 51% increase in pre-orders for county tourism compared to the previous year [3] - Popular county destinations such as Dongtai in Jiangsu, Haining in Zhejiang, and Jingxi in Guangxi have seen over 100% growth in tourism pre-orders compared to last year [3] Scenic Spot Preparations - Scenic spots, including the Western Xia Tombs, have implemented measures to manage the influx of visitors, such as extending opening hours and adding temporary parking facilities [2] - The Western Xia Tombs has launched a feedback system for visitors to enhance their experience during the busy holiday period [2]

Core Insights - The tourism market in China experienced a significant surge during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with family travel becoming the dominant trend [1][5] - Data from Qunar indicates that on October 1, the number of users flying domestically reached a peak, with foreign travelers increasing by over 40% compared to last year [1] - The overall travel demand is expected to exceed previous years due to the extended holiday period and the combination of family reunion needs [5] Group 1: Family Travel Trends - Families accounted for 43% of travelers on the first day of the holiday, an increase of 3 percentage points from last year [5] - Notable growth was observed in the age groups of 0-12 years (31% increase), 60 years and above (33% increase), and 13-18 years (42% increase) [5] - The top 20 popular destinations included major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, with a focus on natural, theme park, and historical attractions [5] Group 2: Emerging Travel Patterns - Reverse tourism and visits to smaller cities gained popularity, with nearly 2000 county hotels booked on October 1 [7] - The top 10 popular county destinations included places like Jiuzhaigou in Sichuan and Yangshuo in Guangxi, with a notable 30% increase in hotel bookings in Jingdezhen due to the viral "Chicken Chop Brother" [7] - There was a significant rise in searches for less crowded destinations, with a 110% increase in interest for niche locations [7][8] Group 3: Self-Driving and Travel Preferences - Self-driving travel saw a notable increase, with Tuniu reporting a nearly 10% rise in user travel numbers compared to last year [9] - The combination of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival led to peaks in both vacation and family visits, with a significant preference for staggered travel [9] - On October 1, Tuniu reported a more than 130% increase in domestic travel compared to the previous day, with self-driving trips seeing a threefold increase [9]