Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended Q1 2025 with cash and short-term investments totaling $813 million, excluding the expected Toyota investment [27] - The net loss for Q1 2025 was $82 million, reflecting a loss from operations of about $163 million, partially offset by interest and other income of $81 million [28] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was a loss of $127 million, which was about $8 million higher than in Q4 2024, reflecting increased operating expenses [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record progress in certification, with the FAA side accelerating by 12 percentage points, reaching 62% completion [7] - Five aircraft were produced in the last quarter, marking the busiest period for flight testing with up to eight flights per day [9] - The company is on track to have FAA conforming aircraft ready for flight testing later this year [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The partnership with Virgin Atlantic was announced, aiming to deliver air taxi services in the UK, starting with hubs at London Heathrow and Manchester [17] - The company is preparing to send an aircraft to Dubai for hot weather testing, which is critical for service launch [42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has three distinct paths to market: direct sales for defense applications, partnerships for air taxi services outside the U.S., and direct-to-consumer air taxi services [21][23] - The company is focused on scaling manufacturing and certification processes, with an expanded facility in Marina set to double manufacturing capacity [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's leadership position in the sector, citing strong government support for advanced air mobility [15] - The company is actively engaging with regulatory authorities in various countries to facilitate near-synchronous certification processes [93] Other Important Information - Rodrigo Bramana will join as Chief Financial Officer, bringing extensive experience in global finance and manufacturing [18] - The company plans to maintain a disciplined approach to investments, aligning them with business opportunities [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of full-scale aircraft with all fully conforming parts - The company confirmed that all aircraft built have been full-scale and are on track for FAA conforming aircraft to be ready later this year [35] Question: Flight test goals for the year, including Dubai - The company highlighted significant progress in flight testing and plans to conduct tests in Dubai under challenging conditions [42] Question: Transitioning from pilot on board to passengers on board - The critical piece involves component and system-level testing, with FAA-approved test plans being essential for moving forward [51] Question: Addressing safety standards in the UK - The company is working closely with UKCAA to align certification standards with the FAA [55] Question: Balancing near-term cash flow versus long-term margin - The company emphasized the importance of flexibility in prioritizing different market opportunities based on credible prospects [58] Question: Impact of tariffs on operations - The company believes its vertical integration will mitigate the impact of tariffs, allowing for flexible supplier management [66] Question: Commercialization timeline post-U.S. regulatory approval - The company is actively engaging with international regulatory authorities to ensure a seamless transition to certification in other markets [93] Question: Average cost of building a dedicated vertiport - Costs can range from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars depending on the scale of the vertiport [99]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended Q1 2025 with cash and short-term investments totaling $813 million, excluding the expected Toyota investment [27] - The net loss for Q1 2025 was $82 million, reflecting a loss from operations of approximately $163 million, partially offset by interest and other income of $81 million [28] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was a loss of $127 million, which was about $8 million higher than in Q4 2024, indicating increased operating expenses [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a production target of delivering parts equivalent to one aircraft per month, which supports unprecedented levels of component and subcomponent tests [7] - Five aircraft have rolled off the pilot production line, with ongoing FAA inspections for conforming aircraft [34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company announced a partnership with Virgin Atlantic to deliver air taxi services in the UK, starting with hubs at London Heathrow and Manchester [17] - The company is preparing to send an aircraft to Dubai for flight testing in hot weather conditions, which is critical for service launch [42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has three distinct paths to market: direct sales for defense applications, partnerships for air taxi services outside the U.S., and direct-to-consumer operations [22] - The company is focused on scaling manufacturing and certification processes to support commercial operations next year [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving type certification and highlighted the importance of recent progress in flight testing and FAA interactions [15][16] - The company is optimistic about the regulatory environment and support from the U.S. government for advanced air mobility [15] Other Important Information - Rodrigo Bramana will join as Chief Financial Officer, bringing extensive experience in global finance and manufacturing [19] - The company is nearing completion of an expanded manufacturing facility in Marina, which will double its manufacturing footprint [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of full-scale aircraft with fully conforming parts - The company confirmed that all aircraft built have been full-scale and are undergoing FAA inspections for conforming aircraft, with plans to have them in the air later this year [34] Question: Timeline for expanded manufacturing site in Ohio - The company is making great progress on both the Marina and Ohio sites, with parts expected to come out of the Ohio facility in the coming months [38] Question: Flight test goals for the year, including Dubai - The company is preparing to send an aircraft to Dubai for hot weather testing and is pleased with the progress made in flight testing [42] Question: Transitioning from pilot on board to passengers on board - The company emphasized the importance of component and system-level testing for FAA conforming test articles before transitioning to passenger flights [50] Question: Addressing safety standards in the UK - The company is working closely with UKCAA to align certification standards with the FAA, ensuring a smooth path for operations in the UK [53] Question: Balancing near-term cash flow versus long-term margin - The company highlighted the importance of flexibility in choosing between different market strategies based on credible opportunities [57] Question: Impact of tariffs on operations - The company believes its vertical integration will mitigate the impact of tariffs, allowing for more flexible supplier management [65] Question: Commercialization timeline post-U.S. regulatory certification - The company is actively engaging with regulatory authorities in other countries to ensure a seamless transition to certification once U.S. approval is obtained [93] Question: Average cost of building dedicated vertiports - The cost of building vertiports can range from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars, depending on the scale [99]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ________________________________________________ FORM 8-K ________________________________________________ CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): May 7, 2025 ________________________________________________ Joby Aviation, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) ________________________________________________ Delaware 001 ...

Group 1 - Joby's share price has faced pressure recently due to reduced investor risk appetite and perceived lack of progress compared to Archer Aviation [1] Group 2 - Narweena, led by Richard Durant, focuses on identifying market dislocations and believes in achieving excess risk-adjusted returns through secular growth opportunities in markets with entry barriers [2] - The research process at Narweena emphasizes company and industry fundamentals to uncover unique insights, with a high risk appetite and long-term investment horizon [2] - Narweena's investment strategy is influenced by an aging population, low population growth, and stagnating productivity, which may create different investment opportunities compared to the past [2] - Many industries may experience stagnation or secular decline, potentially improving business performance due to decreased competition, while others may face rising costs [2] - The economy is increasingly dominated by asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments, resulting in a large pool of capital chasing limited investment opportunities [2]

Core Insights - Joby Aviation has achieved a significant technical milestone with successful piloted flights demonstrating a full transition between vertical takeoff, wing-borne cruise, and vertical landing, which is crucial for regulatory approval and commercial launch [1][2][11] Technical Advancements - The successful transition from vertical takeoff and landing to high-speed forward flight is a major technical hurdle, confirmed by multiple pilots, showcasing the aircraft's aerodynamic design and flight control systems [3][4] - Joby Aviation's eVTOL aircraft utilizes six tilting propellers, allowing for urban landings and efficient transit at speeds up to 200 mph [3] Testing and Certification - The achievement is the result of a years-long testing program, with over 40,000 miles of flight testing and extensive ground testing, laying the groundwork for inhabited transition flights [4] - The next phase involves Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight testing with FAA pilots, which is the final stage of FAA type certification [6] Commercialization Plans - Joby is on track to deliver an aircraft to Dubai by mid-2025 for local flight testing, aiming to carry the first passengers in late 2025 or early 2026 [7] - The recent flight test success is expected to positively influence investor sentiment and upcoming earnings calls [7][13] Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Joby Aviation's stock price forecast indicates a potential upside of 30.84%, with a current price of $6.56 and a 12-month target of $8.58 [8] - Despite the positive developments, the stock has experienced volatility, down approximately 21% year-to-date, with a 52-week range of $4.66 to $10.72 [9][10] Investor Considerations - Institutional investors have shown significant accumulation, indicating long-term conviction, while short interest has increased to 16.68% of the float, which could lead to increased volatility [9][10] - The upcoming Q1 earnings report will be crucial for updates on TIA testing, manufacturing progress, and international launch plans [13][14]

Core Insights - The urban air mobility market is transitioning from concept to reality, with eVTOL aircraft leading the charge, presenting opportunities for companies like Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation [1][2] Company Overview: Archer Aviation (ACHR) - Archer Aviation is advancing with its Midnight eVTOL aircraft and has established partnerships with United Airlines and the U.S. Air Force, focusing on scalable manufacturing [2] - As of the end of 2024, Archer had over $1 billion in liquidity, with long-term debt of $75 million and no current debt, positioning it well for future investments [3][4] - Archer's growth is supported by collaborations, including a partnership with Anduril Industries for a hybrid VTOL aircraft and agreements with UAE entities for electric air taxi operations [4] - The company plans to launch its Midnight eVTOL commercially by late 2025, with a manufacturing facility of 400,000 square feet expected to be completed in late 2024 [5] Company Overview: Joby Aviation (JOBY) - Joby Aviation holds nearly $1 billion in cash as of December 31, 2024, with no long or short-term debt, providing financial flexibility for aircraft design and manufacturing [6] - Joby's growth is enhanced by strategic partnerships, including a recent collaboration with Virgin Atlantic for air taxi services in the UK, and it is the first eVTOL company to receive a Part 135 Air Carrier Certificate from the FAA [7] - The company aims to deliver its eVTOL aircraft to Dubai by mid-2025 and start commercial operations by late 2025 or early 2026, with plans for a high-rate production facility in Dayton, OH [8] Market Challenges - Both Archer and Joby are navigating a capital-intensive environment, with the sustainability of their business models uncertain due to the nascent eVTOL market [9] - Public acceptance of eVTOLs may face challenges related to safety, noise, and affordability, which could limit growth potential [10] - Both companies are in a pre-revenue stage, raising concerns about long-term growth viability among investors [11] Financial Performance and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates that Archer's loss per share for 2025 and 2026 is expected to improve year-over-year, although estimates have trended downward recently [12] - Joby's loss per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 also suggest year-over-year growth, but near-term estimates have similarly declined [13] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Archer's stock has decreased by 7.9%, outperforming Joby's 21.6% decline, while both stocks have seen significant increases over the past year, with Archer up 119.8% and Joby up 27.7% [16] Conclusion - Both Archer and Joby are positioned to capitalize on the emerging eVTOL market, but they remain speculative investments with significant execution and regulatory risks [18] - Archer may offer better near-term upside based on recent stock performance, but both companies face substantial risks [19]

Core Viewpoint - Joby Aviation is experiencing renewed market interest as it approaches its Q1 2025 financial results announcement, with stock price recovering from a recent low, indicating potential optimism regarding operational progress and commercialization timelines [1][10][14] Financial Performance - Joby is expected to report continued net losses in Q1 2025, typical for pre-revenue aerospace companies, with a forecasted EPS of -$0.19 [3][4] - The company reported a net loss of $513 million for the last full fiscal year, highlighting the ongoing financial challenges [3] - At the end of 2024, Joby had $933 million in cash and short-term investments, which is crucial for sustaining operations until commercial launch [4] Operational Progress - The focus of the upcoming earnings report will be on advancements in FAA certification, manufacturing readiness, and commercialization timelines rather than traditional financial metrics [2][5][15] - Investors are particularly interested in the progress of FAA type certification, specifically advancements in Stage 4, and any updates on the 2025 timeline for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight testing [6] - Updates on the construction of the Ohio manufacturing facility and integration of Toyota's manufacturing expertise are critical for assessing Joby's scaling capabilities [7] Commercialization Timeline - Confirmation or adjustments to commercialization timelines, including the first aircraft delivery in Dubai by mid-2025 and initial passenger flights in late 2025 or early 2026, are vital for maintaining market confidence [8] - Progress on the UAE Air Operator Certificate and developments in the UK market entry with Virgin Atlantic will also be closely monitored [8] Market Sentiment - Joby Aviation's stock has seen increased interest, with a 12-month price target of $8.58, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 34% from current levels [10][11] - Despite a recent downgrade from Morgan Stanley, the overall consensus remains a Moderate Buy, indicating continued confidence from institutional investors [11] - High short interest at 16.15% of the float reflects market skepticism, which could lead to price volatility [12]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant volatility in 2025, influenced by President Trump's trade policies, but recent developments indicate that severe tariffs may not be implemented, creating opportunities for investors [1] Innovative Growth Companies - Many tech companies have seen sell-offs due to trade uncertainties, leading to attractive entry points for long-term investors [2] - Companies developing technologies that will define new markets over the next decade are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [11] Advanced Air Mobility - Archer Aviation is focused on developing eVTOL aircraft for urban air taxi services, currently down 36% from its 52-week high, with steady FAA certification progress and strategic partnerships positioning it for growth [4] - Joby Aviation, the leading eVTOL manufacturer, is down 43% from its 52-week high, with advanced flight testing and partnerships with Toyota and Delta expected to drive revenue growth [5] Quantum Computing - D-Wave Quantum offers commercial access to quantum computing and is down 44% from its 52-week high, with early commercial momentum seen as a growth driver [6] - IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers and is down 50% from its 52-week high, with technological advancements and partnerships positioning it for future market leadership [7] Space Economy - Rocket Lab USA provides small satellite launch services and is down 40% from its 52-week high, with a strong launch record and diversified offerings in a rapidly growing space economy projected to reach $1 trillion by 2040 [8] - Intuitive Machines, down 68% from its 52-week high, specializes in lunar payload delivery systems, with proven capabilities offering significant upside potential for long-term investors [9] Data Analytics - Palantir Technologies offers data analytics software with a focus on AI-powered solutions, currently down 25% from its 52-week high, and is positioned for substantial growth due to high demand for its services [10] Investment Rationale - The current market conditions present a rare opportunity to invest in companies with meaningful technological validation and operational progress, trading at valuations 25% to 68% below recent highs [12]

Core Viewpoint - Joby Aviation is facing stock price volatility due to broader aerospace sector concerns, yet the company continues to make significant operational progress, including surpassing 40,000 flight miles in testing, which is crucial for its FAA certification process [2][7][10]. Company Specifics - Joby Aviation's stock has declined approximately 33% year-to-date, trading near its 50-day low of $5.32, with recent insider selling contributing to investor scrutiny [1][3]. - The company is halfway through the critical fourth stage of the FAA certification process, with a target for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight testing in 2025 and initial passenger services planned for late 2025 or early 2026, focusing on Dubai as a key market [8][12]. - Joby's strategic partnerships with Toyota for manufacturing and Virgin Atlantic for UK market entry are aimed at mitigating supply chain risks during its transition to scalable production [5][9]. Sector Context - Concerns regarding potential aerospace tariffs and supply chain issues have been highlighted by Morgan Stanley's downgrade of Joby, raising questions about the company's commercialization strategy [3][11]. - Despite these sector-wide fears, the immediate impact on Joby is less clear, as its pre-revenue status and strategic partnerships may lessen the significance of these risks in the near term [5][11]. Market Sentiment - The average analyst price target for Joby is $8.58, suggesting a potential upside of over 48% from the current price of $5.86, with a high forecast of $11.50 [7][12]. - Key near-term catalysts, such as the targeted aircraft delivery to Dubai in mid-2025, could drive future stock appreciation [14]. Investment Outlook - The recent stock price decline presents a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors, as the market may be overreacting to sector-wide concerns that are less critical for Joby at this stage [11][16]. - Continued positive consensus among analysts and institutional investor accumulation indicates a belief in Joby's long-term strategy and leadership potential [16].

I have written previously on Joby Aviation, Inc. (NYSE: JOBY ), back in November 2024. Investors who took my advice at that time to buy would have enjoyed watching their stock double in value (from around $5I have been investing in the stock market since I was 17 years old, and over the 25+ years since I have learned the joy of compounding, the value of dividend reinvesting, and the principle that patient investing through good times and bad brings the greatest rewards. I believe the key to creating wealth ...