10月17日，东北地区首届快手电商超级双选会活动在辽宁省鞍山市启动。 鞍山市铁东区联合快手科技公司共同举办的这次活动，聚焦美妆、个护、日百、小家电、珠宝、三农和 文旅等多个领域，为不同供应链的企业和个人提供交流与合作的机会。 "双选会"旨在搭建供应链企业与网红达人之间的桥梁，实现供需双方精准匹配、优质资源无缝对接，进 一步推动鞍山市乃至辽宁省电商产业的快速发展和转型升级。 通过整合资源，将东北市场的各类优质产品推向更广阔的市场，同时引入更多优质供应链，为创业者提 供就业机会，助力东北经济的发展。 "双选会"启动同时为快手电商产业基地拉开帷幕。 鞍山市铁东区立足于"资产存量"变"发展增量"，不搞另起炉灶，围绕消费方式新变化和文旅市场火爆新 特点，让旧业态发新芽、长新叶，此次引进的"钻石SOHO商业中心快手电商产业基地"项目，不仅完善 了鞍山电商产业平台，也激活了钻石城的多年闲置资产。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6][2] Core Views - The company is expected to see a steady increase in daily active users (DAU) and user engagement due to the integration of content and commercial resources, as well as the broadcasting effect of the Paris Olympics [1] - E-commerce GMV is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year to 333.8 billion CNY in Q3 2024, driven by promotional events [1] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to grow by 20.2% year-on-year to 17.66 billion CNY in Q3 2024, with internal advertising growth outpacing GMV growth [1] - Live streaming revenue is expected to decline by 4.7% year-on-year to 9.26 billion CNY in Q3 2024 [1] - The total revenue for Q3 2024 is projected to increase by 11% year-on-year to 31 billion CNY [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its revenue structure and improving operational efficiency, with an expected gross margin of 53.8% in Q3 2024 [1] - The AI model commercialization is progressing rapidly, with significant improvements in quality and functionality [1] Financial Summary - The company’s adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 17.005 billion CNY in 2024, with a target price of 60.47 HKD per share based on a 14x PE valuation [2][6] - Revenue for FY2024 is expected to reach 126.5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.5% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 54.0% in FY2024, with a net profit margin of approximately 11.4% [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 60.47 per share [1][6][2] Core Views - The company is expected to see a steady increase in daily active users (DAU) and user engagement due to the integration of content and commercial resources, as well as the broadcasting effect of the Paris Olympics [1] - E-commerce GMV is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year to CNY 333.8 billion in Q3 2024, driven by promotional events [1] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to grow by 20.2% year-on-year to CNY 17.66 billion in Q3 2024, with internal advertising growth outpacing GMV growth [1] - The live streaming business is expected to see a decline in revenue by 4.7% year-on-year to CNY 9.26 billion in Q3 2024 [1] - The company aims to optimize its revenue structure and improve operational efficiency, with an expected gross margin of 53.8% in Q3 2024 [1] - The commercialization of AI models is progressing rapidly, with significant improvements in quality and functionality [1] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be CNY 170.05 billion, with a PE valuation of 14x, leading to a reasonable market value of CNY 2,381 billion, equivalent to HKD 2,610 billion [2][6][7] - Revenue for FY2024 is expected to reach CNY 126.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [5] - The company anticipates a net profit margin of approximately 12.5% for Q3 2024, with an adjusted net profit of around CNY 39 billion [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology [5] Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou is committed to investing in AI large models to reshape its platform ecosystem, with its self-developed video generation model, Keling AI, having served over 2.6 million users and generated 53 million images and 27 million videos [5] - The company is leveraging its content ecosystem advantages, with AI technology expected to enhance commercial efficiency, particularly in e-commerce conversion rates [5] - Kuaishou's local life services are experiencing rapid growth, with a 37% increase in daily payment users and nearly tripling GMV year-on-year [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are adjusted to 127.3 billion, 142.3 billion, and 157.7 billion RMB for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [6][8] - Adjusted net profit expectations are revised to 17.4 billion, 26.2 billion, and 32.4 billion RMB for the same years [6][8] - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth in traffic and commercial performance, with a narrowing of overseas losses anticipated [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company shared its development strategy during the 2024 Investor Day, focusing on the synergy between content and commercial ecosystems to drive efficiency and sustainable operations [1] - The report highlights the importance of user-driven commercialization and content collaboration, leveraging AI to reshape the ecosystem [1] - The company aims to balance content distribution mechanisms with user feedback and commercial value to maximize overall returns [1] Financial Summary - The adjusted net profit forecast for the company is projected to be CNY 170.05 billion, CNY 236.02 billion, and CNY 301.92 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from CNY 113.47 billion in 2023 to CNY 126.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [4][6] - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 54.0% in 2024 [4][6] Business Segments - In the e-commerce segment, the company reported an 18% year-on-year increase in live broadcast gross profit margin (GPM) for Q2 2024, with GMV growth close to 50% [1] - The number of product categories increased by 30% in Q2 2024, with a 25% rise in the number of new merchants [1] - The local life segment saw a sequential GMV growth of 22% and 30% in Q1 and Q2 of 2024 respectively, with a 278% year-on-year increase in monthly active trading users [1] Valuation - The report applies a PE valuation method, assigning a 14x PE ratio for 2024, leading to a target price of HKD 60.89 per share [5][6] - The estimated market value of the company is CNY 2,381 billion, equivalent to HKD 2,640 billion [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Kuaishou Technology Core Insights - Kuaishou Technology's 2024 Investor Day highlighted the company's focus on technology innovation and user demand as the foundation for its growth strategy [2][3] - The company aims to enhance its e-commerce capabilities by improving the visibility of products through video and live streaming, addressing the challenges posed by cautious consumer spending and merchant profitability [5][6] - Kuaishou's international business is seeing steady growth, particularly in Brazil, with a focus on leveraging advanced advertising efficiency and local market opportunities [12] - The local life segment emphasizes user, merchant, and platform value, targeting lower-tier cities for growth [13][14] - Financial highlights include achieving a GMV of 1 trillion, revenue of 100 billion, and an adjusted net profit of 10 billion, with a strong focus on shareholder returns through share buybacks [16] Summary by Sections Company Strategy and Core Business Development - Kuaishou emphasizes a user-oriented content and product ecosystem, with AI enhancements improving user value recognition [3][4] - The platform's user engagement remains strong, with 77% of users interacting with creators and a 7% year-on-year growth in private domain markets [3] E-commerce - The e-commerce strategy focuses on good products and good content, with a current user penetration rate of 19% indicating room for growth [5][6] - Live streaming and short video capabilities are being enhanced to drive consumer purchases, with significant growth in GMV from short videos [8] International Business - The international strategy is centered on Brazil, with a dedicated team and a focus on e-commerce and financial services [12] Local Life - The local life business has evolved through two phases, focusing on user and merchant value, particularly in lower-tier cities [13][14] Financial Highlights - Kuaishou reported a GMV of 1 trillion, revenue of 100 billion, and an adjusted net profit of 10 billion, with a strong cash flow and significant share buyback plans [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 64.86 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company has made significant advancements in AI model technology, enhancing content generation, understanding, and recommendation, which is expected to drive platform business growth [3][10]. - Short video advertising revenue has tripled year-on-year in the first half of 2024, contributing positively to the company's overall advertising revenue [4][11]. - The company is focusing on a multi-faceted content ecosystem, including live streaming, short videos, and text, to enhance user engagement and drive e-commerce growth [5][13]. Summary by Sections AI Ecosystem - The company is implementing three strategic directions to enhance AI model development: upgrading content understanding systems, optimizing recommendation systems with the new ACT model, and improving video generation capabilities [3][10]. - The ACT model is expected to increase daily app usage time by 1 billion minutes due to its efficient processing of user behavior data [10]. Short Video Advertising - In the first half of 2024, short video advertising revenue grew threefold, now accounting for a significant portion of total advertising revenue [4][11]. - The company has over 300 million short videos, with heavy users exceeding 140 million and paying users over 40 million [4]. E-commerce Growth - The company's e-commerce GMV reached RMB 593.3 billion in the first half of 2024, growing 21% year-on-year, surpassing the overall domestic e-commerce market growth of 10% [13]. - The company is enhancing its product offerings and marketing strategies to drive user purchasing intent and streamline decision-making processes [13]. Local Life Services - The local life business has seen a GMV increase of 296% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, with daily paying users growing by 37% [15]. - The company is collaborating with Meituan to expand its service coverage in smaller cities [15]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 176 billion, RMB 238 billion, and RMB 290 billion, respectively [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 127.4 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.31% [7][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price of HKD 54, indicating a potential upside of 41.5% from the current price of HKD 38.15 [2][3]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's management shared strategies focusing on AI empowerment to enhance ecosystem optimization and monetization capabilities during the 2024 Investor Day [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of e-commerce and advertising commercialization, alongside AI development, as key areas for investor attention [1]. Summary by Sections Community Ecosystem and User Engagement - Kuaishou aims to maintain differentiated content supply, enhancing user interaction and participation, with a 28.8% year-on-year increase in comment duration and a 40% increase in private message interactions in Q2 [1]. - AI is being utilized to improve content recognition and understanding, increasing the proportion of high-quality content and enhancing monetization potential [1]. E-commerce - The report notes a downward trend in industry average prices, with Kuaishou focusing on content and supply enhancement to improve purchase conversion rates [1]. - Key metrics include an 18% year-on-year increase in live broadcast GPM (Gross Merchandise Volume per thousand views) and a 50% increase in short video GMV [1]. - The number of active merchants and users increased by 60% and 55% year-on-year, respectively, with a 30% increase in active products in Q2 [1]. Advertising - Kuaishou is enhancing monetization rates through AI-driven product capability iterations, with a 25 percentage point year-on-year increase in overall promotion customer penetration [1]. - The report highlights a 300%+ year-on-year increase in paid short drama consumption, leveraging a user base of 300 million daily active users and 40 million paying users [1]. Local Life Services - The company is targeting lower-tier markets, achieving a 278% year-on-year increase in monthly transaction users in Q2, while the number of active merchants grew approximately fivefold [1]. International Expansion - Kuaishou is focusing on commercializing in core countries, with Brazil showing stable growth and potential profitability by 2025, primarily through advertising [1]. Financial Projections - The report projects a 17% growth in e-commerce GMV and a 21% growth in advertising revenue for 2024, with an adjusted net profit expectation of RMB 18 billion [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 68, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 30.98 billion for Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was approximately CNY 4.68 billion, also surpassing expectations, with a notable improvement in profit margins due to a better revenue structure and reduced bandwidth and server costs [1]. - User traffic showed steady growth, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 395 million, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, and average daily usage time per user increasing to 122 minutes, up 4% [2]. - Online marketing revenue grew by 22.1% year-on-year to CNY 17.5 billion, driven by significant growth in external advertising [3]. - The company's e-commerce GMV reached CNY 305.25 billion, growing 15% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed due to macroeconomic factors and increased competition [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 30.98 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% and an adjusted net profit of CNY 4.68 billion, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The gross margin improved due to a favorable revenue mix and lower costs associated with bandwidth and servers [1]. User Engagement - The average daily active users reached 395 million, with a monthly active user count of 692 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and 2.7% respectively [2]. - Total user engagement time increased by 9.5% year-on-year, indicating robust user retention and engagement [2]. Marketing and E-commerce - Online marketing revenue surged by 22.1% year-on-year to CNY 17.5 billion, primarily due to strong growth in external advertising [3]. - E-commerce GMV was CNY 305.25 billion, with a 15% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate has moderated due to external competitive pressures [4]. Live Streaming and Overseas Business - Live streaming revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year to CNY 9.3 billion, but the number of signed agencies and streamers increased significantly [4]. - Overseas business revenue reached CNY 1.1 billion, marking a 141.4% year-on-year increase, with a focus on ROI-driven growth in key markets [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady domestic business growth while reducing losses in overseas operations. In H1 2024, the company reported revenues of 60.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a net profit of 8.1 billion yuan [2][6]. - The user base continues to grow, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 395 million and monthly active users (MAU) at 692 million in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and 2.7%, respectively [6][8]. - The online marketing services revenue for Q2 2024 was 17.5 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year, driven by improved advertising strategies and increased demand from various sectors [6][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 127.011 billion yuan, 139.845 billion yuan, and 151.372 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 10.1%, and 8.2% respectively [9][10]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are 14.632 billion yuan, 19.541 billion yuan, and 23.891 billion yuan, with significant growth rates of 128.8%, 33.6%, and 22.3% respectively [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 56.8% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [7][11]. Business Segment Analysis - The online marketing service segment is projected to generate revenues of 73.322 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [10]. - The live streaming segment is expected to see a decline in revenue, with projections of 36.454 billion yuan in 2024, down 6.7% year-on-year [10]. - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) is anticipated to reach 1.3857 trillion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 17% [8][9].