Eli Lilly Shares Plummet 14% Toward Worst Day In 25 Years—Here’s Why It’s Down https://t.co/q8gBAFFUY1 https://t.co/q8gBAFFUY1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's shares experienced a significant decline of over 14% following the release of disappointing trial data for its obesity treatment pill, orforglipron, which did not meet Wall Street's expectations for weight loss results [1][2]. Company Summary - Eli Lilly's orforglipron showed an average weight loss of just over 12% in late-stage trials, falling short of the anticipated 15% [2]. - The highest dosage of orforglipron resulted in more than 59% of patients losing at least 10% of their body weight, while nearly 40% lost at least 15% [3]. - CEO David Ricks stated that the company was not disappointed with the results, emphasizing that they aligned with the company's expectations despite being slightly below Wall Street's projections [4]. Industry Context - The competition among pharmaceutical companies, including Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer, to develop effective weight-loss pills has intensified, particularly following the success of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy [7]. - Eli Lilly plans to file for regulatory approval of orforglipron by the end of the year, while Novo Nordisk's treatment is under regulatory review, with a decision expected in late 2025 [7]. - Other companies, such as Roche and Viking Therapeutics, are also developing oral weight-loss drugs, reporting average weight loss of 6.1% and 8.2% in early- and mid-stage trials, respectively [8].

Eli Lilly Shares Plummet 14% Toward Worst Day In 25 Years—Here’s Why It’s Downhttps://t.co/hkrsYq22qg https://t.co/QK0NA74b0A ...

Results from a late-stage trial of Eli Lilly's experimental weight-loss pill were disappointing, sending shares of the drugmaker tumbling. https://t.co/yhWqHbEkKy ...

Group 1 - The article promotes a weekly newsletter focused on stocks in the biotech, pharma, and healthcare industries, aimed at both novice and experienced investors [1] - The newsletter provides insights on key trends, catalysts, product sales forecasts, and integrated financial statements for major pharmaceutical companies [1] - The author, Edmund Ingham, has over 5 years of experience in the biotech sector and has compiled detailed reports on more than 1,000 companies [1]

Lilly Falls as Weight-Loss Pill Data Overshadows Sales Beat. Listen for more on Bloomberg Intelligence. https://t.co/xnkPTNhImP ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) reported strong second-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.31, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.61, and a 61% year-over-year increase in earnings [1] - Revenues reached $15.56 billion, a 38% year-over-year increase, driven by sales of tirzepatide medicines, including diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine Zepbound, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.749 billion [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - U.S. revenues increased by 38% to $10.81 billion, while ex-U.S. revenues rose by 37% to $4.74 billion [2] - Mounjaro sales were $5.2 billion, up 68% year over year, exceeding estimates [3] - Zepbound sales reached $3.38 billion, a 172% increase year over year, also beating estimates [4] Competitive Landscape - Mounjaro and Zepbound face competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide medicines, Ozempic and Wegovy, which have seen lowered sales expectations due to competitive pressures [5] - Other companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics are developing more potent GLP-1-based candidates [6] Key Drug Performance - Trulicity generated $1.09 billion in revenue, down 12% year over year, but still beat estimates [7] - Jardiance sales declined by 10% to $690 million, surpassing estimates [7] - Taltz brought in $847.6 million, up 3% year over year, but missed estimates [8] - Verzenio generated $1.49 billion, up 12% year over year, but also missed estimates [8] - New drugs like Jaypirca, Omvoh, and Ebglyss contributed to sales growth [9][10] Guidance Update - Lilly raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, up from $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, and increased EPS guidance to $21.75 to $23.00 [11] Orforglipron Study Results - The oral obesity pill orforglipron showed a weight loss of 12.4%, which was below investor expectations, leading to a decline in shares [14][19] - Despite meeting primary endpoints, the weight loss results were disappointing compared to competitors [14][19] - Lilly plans to submit regulatory applications for orforglipron by the end of the year [15] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, shares fell approximately 12% in pre-market trading due to the underwhelming results of orforglipron [19][20] - Lilly's stock has declined 3% year-to-date, compared to a 4.2% decrease in the industry [20]

Eli Lilly's Stock Performance & Market Reaction - Eli Lilly's stock tumbled to its lowest level since January 2024 despite beating estimates and raising guidance for the latest quarter [1] - The stock reaction is attributed to trial data for its oral obesity pill, Clipperon, missing Wall Street's expectations [5] - Goldman Sachs views the stock reaction as overdone, considering the drug commercially viable [6] Oral Obesity Pill Trial Results & Expectations - The goal was to create a convenient oral pill for the mass market with weight loss competitive with other single-acting GLP1s [2] - Wall Street expected weight loss closer to the mid-teens, around 14-15%, but the trial results were just shy of that [6] - The Attain One trial for the oral obesity pill missed the "bar" [5] - The company frames the tolerability as in line with or trending towards bull-case expectations, with no significant new events in terms of nausea or vomiting [10] Commercial Viability & Market Opportunity - The oral obesity pill is still considered commercially viable and will have a place in the large obesity market [7] - The oral obesity market may see a repricing, potentially shifting opportunity from Eli Lilly's gipperon to Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide [12] - The overall obesity opportunity remains significant, with about 100 million obese people in the US and 900 million overseas, with low penetration rates for GLP-1 drugs [13] - Current GLP-1 drugs are only 3% penetrated in the US, with expectations of reaching 15% by 2030 [13]

Economic Overview - U.S. pre-market futures are at peak highs, with the Dow up 185 points, S&P 500 up 35 points, and Nasdaq up 120 points, indicating a healthy market environment [1] - The small-cap Russell index is up 20 points, showing recovery from a previous selloff, with Q2 earnings season exceeding expectations across various industries [2] Productivity and Labor Costs - U.S. Productivity in Q2 increased by 2.4%, surpassing the expected 1.9%, marking a significant recovery from the previous quarter's -1.8% [3] - Unit Labor Costs rose by 1.6%, slightly above the estimated 1.3%, and down from a revised 6.9% in Q1, indicating improved economic conditions [4] Employment Data - Initial Jobless Claims rose to 226K, 5K higher than estimated, but still below the near-term high of 250K reported in early June [5] - Continuing Jobless Claims reached 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021, but still below the psychologically significant 2 million mark [6] Company Earnings Reports - Eli Lilly reported Q2 earnings of $6.31 per share, exceeding the $5.61 estimate, with revenues of $15.56 billion, up 5.5% [7] - Despite strong earnings, Eli Lilly's shares fell 7% due to disappointing performance of its new obesity pill, which had a 12% weight loss rate [8] - Warner Bros. Discovery reported earnings of $0.63 per share, significantly better than the expected -$0.16, with revenues of $9.81 billion [9] - Ralph Lauren's fiscal Q1 earnings were $3.77 per share, beating the $3.48 estimate, with revenues of $1.7 billion, up 14% year over year [10] Upcoming Economic Data - Wholesale Inventories for June and Consumer Credit data will be released later today, following a previous Consumer Credit increase of $5.1 billion [11]

Market Reaction & Analysis - Eli Lilly's stock experienced a 14% decline following the release of data showing its weight loss pill resulted in only 11% weight loss [1][2] - Some analysts, like Gerard from Mizuho, believe the market's reaction is an overreaction [1] - The 11% weight loss was lower than the perceived "bogey number" of 15% associated with injectable weight loss medications like Novo Nordisk's [3] - Analysts are concerned about the gastrointestinal side effects associated with the drug [4] Drug Efficacy & Future Prospects - The single-digit differences in weight loss may not deter doctors and patients seeking a more convenient daily pill option compared to weekly injections [4][5] - The drug still needs FDA approval and market launch [5] - The "home run" expectation of matching injectable weight loss results with an improved side effect profile was likely unrealistic [7] - Eli Lilly is exploring different dosages, including using the pill as a maintenance product for individuals who have already lost weight with injectables [8] - Analysts are revising down multibillion dollar revenue targets for the drug by 2030, suggesting initial expectations were too high [9] Patient & Market Preferences - Patients are seeking fewer side effects and potentially lower doses [6] - Microdosing GLP-1 drugs is gaining popularity [6]