Group 1: Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) - Vista Energy is an oil and gas exploration and production company with a Zacks Rank 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 48.7% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 6.64, compared to 6.90 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of A [1] Group 2: OppFi Inc. (OPFI) - OppFi is a FinTech company that also carries a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next year earnings has increased by 10.6% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 6.84, compared to 12.10 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 3: Macy's, Inc. (M) - Macy's is an omnichannel retail company with a Zacks Rank 1 [2][3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 10.2% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.02, compared to 22.90 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of A [3]

Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends - U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in over three years in early November, but there was a slight uptick in December [3] - Despite economic worries, nearly 203 million U.S. shoppers participated in the holiday shopping period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, marking the highest turnout in at least nine years [5] - Retail sales have shown resilience, with many retailers exceeding quarterly sales expectations, indicating steady consumer demand [6][7] Retail Performance and Consumer Behavior - Big-box retailers like Walmart and Costco reported strong sales, while discretionary retailers also exceeded expectations, suggesting a consistent consumer spending pattern [6][7] - Lower-income consumers have remained resilient, continuing to spend despite economic pressures, while higher-income consumers have supported retail sales through rising home values and stock market gains [8][9] - Retailers have noted that consumers are selective in their spending, often seeking deals and discounts, which has driven strong turnout during promotional sales [13][14] Economic Indicators and Retail Forecasts - Retail sales have consistently grown nearly or more than 4% year-over-year, surpassing earlier predictions of 2.7% to 3.7% growth [19] - Holiday hiring by retailers is expected to be the lowest in at least 15 years, reflecting caution in managing costs amid economic uncertainty [20] - Retailers are experiencing a divide between winners and losers, with those executing well capturing the dollars of selective shoppers [24] Price Dynamics and Consumer Spending - Some retail spending growth has been attributed to price hikes, as consumers are motivated to purchase before further price increases occur [14][15] - The disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending behavior has been noted, with higher-income households continuing to spend despite low sentiment [16][17] - Retailers have been able to offer deals due to excess inventory purchased earlier in the year, which may lead to a strong start to the holiday season but a weaker end [30] Conclusion on Consumer Outlook - The current economic environment has led consumers to make trade-offs, seeking value while still engaging in holiday spending [27][28] - The overall sentiment suggests a paradox where consumers feel uncertain yet continue to spend, driven by the emotional significance of the holiday season [29][31]

-The holiday season, that time of year when the city that never sleeps takes a moment to reflect. Lights twinkle up and down the avenues of New York City, from the posh storefronts down in Soho to the ornate window displays up along Fifth Avenue to the epicenter in between the miracle and magic of Macy's on 34th Street. - Christmas isn't just a day, it's a frame of mind. -American retailers seize on the season, hoping to capitalize on that frame of mind, creating something that lasts beyond just the holiday ...

-The holiday season, that time of year when the city that never sleeps takes a moment to reflect. Lights twinkle up and down the avenues of New York City, from the posh storefronts down in Soho to the ornate window displays up along Fifth Avenue to the epicenter in between the miracle and magic of Macy's on 34th Street. -Christmas isn't just a day, it's a frame of mind.-American retailers seize on the season, hoping to capitalize on that frame of mind, creating something that lasts beyond just the holidays. ...

Group 1 - Retailers are extending discounts on various goods, including sports gear and books, to attract price-sensitive consumers amid rising costs and tariffs [2][3] - The average size of discounts on Amazon has slightly decreased from 2024 to 2025, with markdowns rarely exceeding 5% [3] - Major retailers like Target and Lowe's are promoting sales and encouraging consumers to take their time with purchases [5][9] Group 2 - Merchants are providing clear deadlines for holiday orders to ensure timely delivery, with cut-off dates varying by retailer [6] - Up to 20% of items may be available at their lowest prices of the year leading up to Christmas, with average reductions around 20% [7] - Heavily discounted categories include toys, books, games, and apparel, which are expected to remain well discounted [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's is undergoing significant restructuring, closing 150 underperforming stores as it adapts to changing consumer behaviors and increased competition from online retailers and off-price apparel stores [4][11][20]. Company History - Founded in 1858, Macy's has a long history as a major American retailer, evolving through various ownerships, expansions, and challenges, including bankruptcy and mergers [5][6][9]. Current Challenges - The shift towards online shopping and the decline of mall traffic have pressured Macy's sales and profits, leading to a reduction in store count from 737 in 2015 to 450 in 2024 [9][16]. - Macy's revenue has decreased from $24.9 billion in 2008 (equivalent to $36.3 billion today) to $22.7 billion in fiscal 2024 [9]. Restructuring Efforts - The "A Bold New Chapter" plan aims to close approximately 150 stores by 2026, while focusing on 350 go-forward locations and expanding Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury by up to 45 locations [16][22]. - Comparable sales at stores open for more than a year grew by 2%, indicating potential for recovery despite overall sales decline [14][17]. Financial Performance - Macy's reported a slight year-over-year sales decline of 0.6% in Q3, but positive trends were noted in its remaining stores, particularly Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, which saw sales growth of 8.6% and 3.8% respectively [13][18]. - The company has raised its earnings per share target for the fiscal year to at least $2, up from $1.70, reflecting improved performance [22]. Market Sentiment - Analysts have responded positively to Macy's restructuring efforts, with several firms raising their stock price targets significantly [22]. - However, some industry experts express skepticism about Macy's long-term growth potential, citing challenges in adapting to new shopping behaviors and economic conditions [23].

Sales Performance - Comparable sales for Macy's, Inc. increased by 2.5% on an owned basis and 3.2% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace (O+L+M) basis in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024[95] - Bloomingdale's achieved its highest comparable sales growth in 13 quarters, with an increase of 8.8% on an owned basis and 9.0% on an O+L+M basis[95] - Comparable sales increased by 3.2% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis for the 13 weeks ended November 1, 2025[134] - The company experienced a decrease in comparable sales on an owned basis of 2.4% for the 13 weeks ended November 1, 2025[136] - The impact of departments licensed to third parties and marketplace sales contributed an additional 0.7% to comparable sales for the same period[134] Financial Results - Net sales for Q3 2025 were $4,713 million, a decrease of $29 million or 0.6% from Q3 2024, primarily due to the closure of 64 non-go-forward locations[97] - Net sales for the 39 weeks ended November 1, 2025, decreased by $400 million, or 2.8%, to $14,125 million compared to $14,525 million in 2024, primarily due to the closure of 64 non-go-forward locations[105] - Net sales for the 13 weeks ended November 1, 2025, were $165 million, with a net loss of $197 million for the same period[128] - Net income decreased to $135 million for 2025, compared to $240 million in 2024[104] - The company reported a net income of $11 million for the 13 weeks ended November 1, 2025, with diluted earnings per share of $0.04[142] Margins and Expenses - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was $1,858 million, representing a gross margin rate of 39.4%, a decline of 20 basis points from Q3 2024[99] - Gross margin decreased to $5,575 million, or 39.5% of total revenue, from $5,776 million, or 39.8% in 2024, primarily due to markdowns and tariffs[107] - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses decreased by $40 million or 1.9% in Q3 2025, with SG&A as a percentage of total revenue improving to 41.2%[100] - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses decreased by $67 million, or 1.1%, to $5,881 million, representing 40.0% of total revenue, compared to 39.7% in 2024[108] Earnings and Tax - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $0.09, compared to $0.04 in Q3 2024[96] - The effective tax rate for Q3 2025 was -120.0%, reflecting an income tax benefit of $6 million, compared to an expense of $7 million or 20.0% in Q3 2024[103] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $1,002 million, down from $1,074 million in 2024[104] - Adjusted EBITDA for the 39 weeks ended November 1, 2025, was $1,002 million, compared to $1,074 million for the same period in 2024[140] Assets and Liabilities - Current assets decreased from $1,160 million to $1,087 million, while noncurrent assets increased from $5,727 million to $5,598 million[127] - Total liabilities increased from $8,837 million to $8,237 million, with current liabilities rising from $1,606 million to $1,744 million[127] Capital Expenditures and Share Repurchase - Capital expenditures were $525 million in 2025, focused on digital and technology investments, compared to $649 million in 2024[118] - The company repurchased approximately 15.4 million shares at an average cost of $13.05 per share during 2025, with $1,174 million remaining under the share repurchase authorization[121] Operational Efficiency - The company opened a new fulfillment and store replenishment center, China Grove, which incorporates automation and AI to enhance supply chain efficiency[94] - The company emphasized the importance of non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA, in evaluating operational efficiency and performance[130]

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes the latest analyst ratings from Wall Street, highlighting significant upgrades, downgrades, and new coverage that could impact market sentiment and investment decisions [1][6]. Upgrades - Oppenheimer upgraded General Electric Energy (GEV) from "Hold" to "Outperform," setting a target price of $855, citing improved pricing and sales, along with enhanced factory utilization and operational efficiency [5]. - JPMorgan raised PepsiCo (PEP) from "Neutral" to "Overweight," increasing the target price from $151 to $164, due to the company's accelerated innovation and marketing spending [5]. - HSBC upgraded AbbVie (ABBV) from "Hold" to "Buy," with a target price increase from $225 to $265, noting the company's growth momentum and strong execution capabilities [5]. - Morgan Stanley raised Terex (TEX) from "Equal Weight" to "Overweight," with a target price increase from $47 to $60, as the company's performance has rebounded and its business mix has improved [5]. - Oppenheimer upgraded Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) from "Hold" to "Outperform," significantly raising the target price from $11 to $40, highlighting the stock's undervaluation compared to its competitor Avidity [5]. Downgrades - HSBC downgraded Biogen (BIIB) from "Hold" to "Reduce," with a slight target price decrease from $144 to $143, citing the poor performance of its multiple sclerosis business [5]. - Jefferies lowered Emerson Electric (EMR) from "Buy" to "Hold," maintaining a target price of $145, indicating limited short-term upside due to the company's recent performance outlook [5]. - JPMorgan downgraded Noble Energy (NE) from "Overweight" to "Neutral," raising the target price from $31 to $33, while expressing caution about upstream capital expenditures [5]. - Jefferies downgraded Rexnord (RRX) from "Buy" to "Hold," reducing the target price from $170 to $160, noting that the company's transformation plan is taking longer than expected [5]. - Jefferies lowered Vail Resorts (VLTO) from "Buy" to "Hold," with a target price decrease from $125 to $105, stating that the current stock price reflects the company's stable demand and strong returns [5]. New Coverage - Guggenheim initiated coverage on Amazon (AMZN) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $300, suggesting that the retail sector is showing signs of improvement despite previous concerns [9]. - B. Riley initiated coverage on Roblox (RBLX) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $125, highlighting the company's strong long-term fundamentals [13]. - Cowen initiated coverage on Sensata Technologies (IOT) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of $55, believing the company's platform aligns well with the $45 trillion "physical operations" industry [13]. - B. Riley initiated coverage on Take-Two (TTWO) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $300, driven by the anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6 in November 2026 [13]. - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce initiated coverage on Shark Ninja (SN) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $135, viewing the company as a "category disruptor" [13].

Core Insights - Consumer sentiment remains low despite the holiday season, with Americans feeling pessimistic about their finances and the job market [2] - The retail sector, particularly department stores, is under scrutiny due to the K-shaped economy, yet Dillard's and Macy's are showing strong performance [3][7] Company Analysis: Dillard's - Dillard's is successfully navigating the challenges of a K-shaped economy by focusing on its affluent customer base and maintaining tight inventory [4] - The company avoids aggressive sales tactics and promotions, instead aligning inventory with demand projections to sustain high margins [5] - Dillard's owns a significant portion of its real estate, which provides stability and makes it an attractive buyout target, supporting its share price [6] Company Analysis: Macy's - Macy's is also performing well in the current retail landscape, although specific strategies and performance metrics were not detailed in the provided content [7]

Strategy & Transformation - Macy's is implementing a turnaround strategy focused on a leaner organization and improved customer experience [1] - The strategy includes shrinking the store footprint from a peak of 700-800 stores to approximately 350 [7] - Macy's is remodeling existing stores, with 125 already completed and more planned for 2026, alongside store closures [7] - A healthier digital business is crucial, serving as both a transaction platform and a discovery hub to build customer relationships [8] Customer Experience & Service - Macy's is focused on improving customer service, achieving record Net Promoter Scores (NPS) [2] - Enhancements include improving the quality and breadth of assortments, offering a range from "good, better, best contemporary" brands [3] - The company aims to provide a seamless experience across digital and physical channels [9] Leadership & Culture - Leadership emphasizes the importance of strategy, culture, leadership, and execution working together [4] - A combination of a great business and a great culture is essential for success [5] - Patience and determination are necessary to achieve long-term goals [6]