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Core Viewpoint - Altria Group has maintained a strong dividend history, raising its dividend annually since 2009, with a current forward yield of 7%, but concerns exist regarding the sustainability of this dividend amid declining cigarette volumes and competition from alternative products [1][11]. Revenue and Volume Analysis - Cigarette smoking in the U.S. is declining due to health concerns and the rise of alternatives like vaping, with Altria's cigarette shipment volumes down 13.7% in Q1, including a 13.3% drop for Marlboro and a 24.9% plunge in discount brand shipments [2][3]. - Revenue from the smokeable segment fell 4.1% to $3.91 billion, although adjusted operating income rose 2.7% due to lower manufacturing costs [4]. - In the oral tobacco segment, shipment volumes decreased by 5% to 175.4 million cans, with overall revenue rising by 0.5% to $654 million, but adjusted operating income remained flat [5]. - Altria's Njoy vaping business saw consumable shipments increase by 23.9% to 13.5 million units, but device shipments fell 70% to 0.3 million units, indicating a mixed performance in the vaping segment [6]. Financial Health and Dividend Safety - Altria generated $2.72 billion in operating cash flow and $2.68 billion in free cash flow in the quarter, with a dividend payout of $1.73 billion, resulting in a coverage ratio of over 1.5 times based on free cash flow [9]. - The company ended the quarter with net debt of $21.3 billion and a leverage ratio of 1.7 times, indicating manageable debt levels [9]. Future Outlook - Altria maintained its full-year guidance for adjusted EPS between $5.30 and $5.45, reflecting growth of 2% to 5%, while acknowledging the impact of increased tariffs and cost inflation on consumer behavior [7]. - There are concerns that continued price increases may not be sustainable in the face of declining volumes, which could affect long-term profitability [10][12]. Market Position and Valuation - Altria's stock has performed well in a volatile market, but the overall cigarette business is declining, and its smoke-free products are not yet significant enough to offset this trend [11]. - The company trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11 based on 2025 analyst consensus, which is higher than British American Tobacco but lower than Philip Morris International, which is experiencing growth without facing similar volume declines [13].

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group Inc. reported mixed first-quarter 2025 results, with a decline in top-line revenue but an increase in bottom-line earnings, reaffirming its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter were $1.23, a 6% increase year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 [2]. - Net revenues totaled $5,259 million, down 5.7% year over year, missing the consensus estimate of $4,638.2 million [2]. - Revenues from smokeable products fell 5.8% to $4,622 million, primarily due to reduced shipment volume, although higher pricing provided some offset [4]. Segment Analysis - **Smokeable Products**: - Net revenues decreased 5.8% year over year to $4,622 million, with domestic cigarette shipment volumes down 13.7% [4][5]. - Adjusted operating income (OCI) increased 2.7% to $2,518 million, with adjusted OCI margins growing 4.2 percentage points to 64.4% [6]. - **Oral Tobacco Products**: - Net revenues rose 0.5% to $654 million, driven by higher pricing, despite a 5% decline in domestic shipment volumes [7][8]. - Adjusted OCI remained flat, with a slight decline in adjusted OCI margin by 0.3 percentage points to 69.2% [9]. Shareholder Returns and Guidance - The company repurchased 5.7 million shares for $326 million in the first quarter, with $674 million remaining under its $1 billion share repurchase program [11]. - Altria expects 2025 adjusted EPS in the range of $5.30 to $5.45, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 2% to 5% from a base of $5.19 in 2024 [12][13]. Market Context - Altria's stock has gained 12.6% over the past three months, compared to the industry's growth of 21.8% [15].

Group 1 - The article discusses Altria Group (NYSE: MO) stock, previously rated as a hold, focusing on its technical trading indicators [1] - Sensor Unlimited, an economist with a PhD, specializes in financial economics and has a decade of experience covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking, financial sectors, and housing markets [2] Group 2 - The analyst has a beneficial long position in Altria Group shares through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [3] - The article expresses the author's own opinions without receiving compensation from any company mentioned [3] - Seeking Alpha clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results and that no specific investment advice is provided [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Smokable Products segment grew adjusted operating company's income (OCI) by 2.7%, with adjusted OCI margins increasing by 4.2 percentage points to 64.4% [16][18] - Total domestic cigarette volumes declined by 13.7%, with an adjusted decline of 12% when accounting for calendar differences and trade inventory movements [17] - The company paid approximately $1.7 billion in dividends and repurchased 5.7 million shares in the first quarter [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Smokable Products segment reported a decline in domestic cigarette volumes, while the Oral Tobacco Products segment delivered over $400 million in total adjusted OCI, with adjusted OCI margins at 69.2% [20] - Oral nicotine pouches drove an estimated 10% increase in oral tobacco industry volume, with ON! growing its share to 8.8%, an increase of 1.8 share points year-over-year [8][9] - The Cigars segment saw a reported shipment volume decrease of 2.9%, while Middleton continued to outperform in the large mass cigar industry [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The e-vapor category included over 20 million vapers, with disposable vapers increasing by approximately 4 million to around 14 million [10] - Illicit e-vapor products now represent more than 60% of the category, significantly impacting legitimate market players [10][12] - The company recorded $146 million of adjusted equity earnings from ABI, down 11.5% year-over-year due to a lower ownership interest [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to refine and strengthen its e-vapor product portfolio, focusing on consumer preferences and regulatory compliance [14] - The strategy includes advocating for regulatory reforms to address the illicit e-vapor market and enhance enforcement against illegal products [10][11] - The company plans to maintain its investment in the ON! brand while exploring opportunities in synthetic nicotine products [14][62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumers are under economic pressure due to inflation, which is affecting purchasing behavior and driving some to seek price relief [17][31] - The company expects full-year adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $5.3 to $5.45, reflecting a growth rate of 2% to 5% from a base of $5.19 in 2024 [24] - Management emphasized the importance of monitoring consumer behavior and the potential impact of tariffs on purchasing decisions [70][74] Other Important Information - The company recorded a noncash impairment charge of $873 million due to ITC orders affecting Enjoy [22] - The company has $674 million remaining under its current share repurchase program, expected to be completed by the end of the year [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current state of the consumer and inflationary pressures - Management acknowledged that consumers are under pressure from cumulative inflation, impacting their purchasing behavior and leading to increased interest in illicit products [30][31] Question: Confidence in pricing strategy for cigarettes - Management expressed confidence in the strength of the Marlboro brand and the ability to implement pricing strategies effectively using data analytics [32][34] Question: Approach to the discount segment with the Basic brand - Management clarified that the repositioning of Basic is not a strategy shift but a response to market conditions, maintaining a focus on premium products [36][38] Question: Growth trajectory of ON! and competition - Management remains optimistic about ON!'s growth despite competitive pressures and is excited about upcoming product authorizations [39][41] Question: Strategy for e-cigarettes and market exit - Management emphasized the importance of participating in the e-vapor market long-term and is focused on regulatory compliance and product development [42][44] Question: Impact of tariffs on imports and consumer sentiment - Management noted that while tariffs may impact costs, the primary concern remains the sustained economic pressure on consumers due to inflation [68][70] Question: FDA and regulatory environment for unauthorized vapes - Management highlighted the need for quicker product authorizations and enforcement against illicit products to meet consumer demand [78]

Oral Tobacco & on! - Oral tobacco industry volume grew by 1.5% [12] - on! shipment volume increased by 18.0% to 39.3 million cans in Q1 2025 [12] - on! share of the oral tobacco category reached 8.8% in Q1 2025, a 1.8 percentage point increase [15] - on! brand impressions grew approximately 5x, reaching ~200 million in Q1 2025 [19] E-Vapor - Disposable e-vapor products continue to drive category growth, with past 30-day usage increasing from ~18.0 million to ~20.5 million [22] - The company is advocating for regulatory reforms and engaging with Congress to address illicit e-vapor products [28] - NJOY U S International Trade Commission (ITC)'s exclusion order and cease-and-desist orders took effect on March 31 [31] Financial Performance - Smokeable Products Segment Adjusted OCI increased by 2.7% to $2518 million in Q1 2025 [37] - Smokeable Products Segment Adjusted OCI Margins increased by 4.2 percentage points to 64.4% in Q1 2025 [37] - The company paid $1.7 billion in dividends in the first quarter [67] - The company repurchased 5.7 million shares for $326 million [69]

Core Viewpoint - Pomerantz LLP is investigating potential securities fraud or unlawful business practices involving Altria Group, Inc. and its officers or directors, following a downgrade by Deutsche Bank due to regulatory uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Legal Actions - Pomerantz LLP is conducting an investigation on behalf of Altria investors regarding possible securities fraud or other unlawful business practices [1]. - Investors are encouraged to contact Pomerantz LLP for more information about the investigation [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - On April 2, 2025, Deutsche Bank downgraded Altria from "Buy" to "Hold" due to regulatory uncertainties after a ruling by the U.S. International Trade Commission regarding Altria's NJOY ACE e-vapor products infringing on Juul Labs' patents [3]. - Following the downgrade, Altria's stock price decreased by $1.67, or 2.84%, closing at $57.12 per share on the same day [3].

Altria (MO) reported $4.52 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 4.2%. EPS of $1.23 for the same period compares to $1.15 a year ago.The reported revenue represents a surprise of -2.57% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.64 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.17, the EPS surprise was +5.13%.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next ...

Altria (MO) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.23 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.15 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 5.13%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this owner of Philip Morris USA, the nation's largest cigarette maker would post earnings of $1.27 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.29, delivering a surprise of 1.5 ...

Altria Group (MO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 29, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Mac Livingston - VP, IR, Altria Client ServicesBilly Gifford - CEOSal Mancuso - EVP and CFOMatthew Smith - Director - Food & TobaccoGaurav Jain - Head of EU SMID, EU packaging, and Global Tobacco and CannabisBonnie Herzog - Managing Director Faham Baig - Executive Director - Equity Research Conference Call Participants Emma Rumney - Analyst Operator Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group twenty twenty five First Quart ...