The upcoming report from Moderna (MRNA) is expected to reveal quarterly loss of -$2.99 per share, indicating an increase of 10.2% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $127.17 million, representing a decline of 47.2% year over year. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has undergone a downward revision of 1.4% in the past 30 days, bringing it to its present level. This represents how the covering analysts, as a whole, have reassessed their initial estimates during this timefra ...

Core Viewpoint - Moderna (MRNA) is expected to exceed earnings expectations for Q2 2025, with a prior earnings surprise of 13.70% in the last quarter. The consensus estimates for sales and earnings are $127 million and a loss of $2.99 per share, respectively [1][9]. Factors Shaping MRNA's Upcoming Results - A significant portion of Moderna's revenue is anticipated to come from the COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, with estimated sales of $59 million, reflecting a notable decline from the previous year due to reduced demand [2]. - Minimal sales are expected from the RSV vaccine, mResvia, with projections of only $2 million, which is considerably lower than competing products from GSK and Pfizer. This is attributed to the later approval and recommendation of the vaccine [3]. Regulatory Developments - The FDA has expanded the label for mResvia to include high-risk adults aged 18-59, and the CDC has updated its recommendations for RSV vaccines to include high-risk adults aged 50-59. Investors are looking for updates on marketing strategies for both vaccines [4]. - A regulatory filing is under FDA review to update Spikevax for the LP.8.1 variant for the 2025-26 vaccination season, with a similar filing also under review by the EMA. Investors are keen on updates regarding these regulatory processes [5]. Pipeline Candidates - Moderna is advancing several late-stage pipeline candidates, including the influenza vaccine candidate mRNA-1010, which has shown superior efficacy compared to an approved flu shot. This supports potential approval for a standalone flu shot and strengthens the case for the combination vaccine mRNA-1083 [6]. - An important candidate is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy developed in collaboration with Merck, currently evaluated in pivotal phase III studies for various cancer indications. Investors are interested in updates on this therapy's progress [7]. Earnings Surprise History - Moderna has consistently beaten earnings estimates over the past four quarters, achieving an average surprise of 31.60% [8]. Market Performance - Year to date, Moderna's shares have declined by 18%, contrasting with a 2% growth in the industry [10].

Industry Overview - The second-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is commencing, with most firms expected to release earnings results in the next two weeks, primarily consisting of pharma/biotech and medical device companies [1] - The earnings season for the drug and biotech sector began in mid-July, highlighted by Johnson & Johnson's strong performance, which exceeded earnings and sales estimates, leading to raised revenue and earnings expectations for the year [1] Company Performance - Novartis surpassed second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, driven by a year-over-year increase in sales of key drugs, prompting an upward revision of its annual guidance for core operating income [2] - Roche experienced solid growth in the first half of 2025, with high demand for key drugs offsetting declines in legacy drug sales [2] - As of July 23, 15% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 27.2% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with 88.9% outperforming earnings estimates and 100% beating revenue estimates [3] - Overall, second-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to increase by 0.9%, while sales are expected to rise by 7.9% compared to the previous year [3] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Merck, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers, AbbVie, and Moderna are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week [4] - Merck has a strong earnings track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 3.82% [5] - AstraZeneca has a mixed earnings history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.24% [8] - Bristol Myers has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 20.16% over the last four quarters [11] - AbbVie has also maintained a strong track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 2.55% [13] - Moderna has an excellent earnings history, with an average surprise of 31.60% in the last four quarters [15] Sales Drivers - Merck's growth in the second quarter is likely attributed to increased sales of its cancer drug Keytruda, driven by additional indications and patient demand [7] - AstraZeneca's sales are expected to be bolstered by strong demand for its cancer and diabetes medications [10] - Bristol Myers' revenue may be impacted by declines in legacy drug sales, but growth products are expected to partially offset this decline [12] - AbbVie's revenue is anticipated to be driven by strong sales of key drugs and contributions from newer products [14] - Moderna's revenues are expected to be influenced by sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, while the focus is shifting to updates on its broader pipeline [16]

Core Viewpoint - Moderna is currently facing challenges with declining revenue and stock performance, but has potential for long-term growth if its oncology pipeline proves successful [1][2][9]. Revenue Performance - In 2022, Moderna generated over $19 billion in revenue, which fell to $3.24 billion in 2024, raising questions about its future revenue potential [2]. - The recent approval of a COVID-19 vaccine for at-risk children aged 6 months and older may open new market opportunities, but it is uncertain if this will restore revenue to previous levels [2]. Pipeline Developments - Moderna is focusing on applying its mRNA technology to oncology, with the intismeran autogene vaccine currently in phase 3 trials for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer [4][5]. - Other potential oncology applications include treatments for bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma [4]. Valuation Insights - Valuation is challenging due to recent losses; analysts do not expect earnings per share until at least 2027, with a potential EPS of $3.52, leading to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times [8]. - The current price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.6 times fiscal 2024 sales, with projected revenue for 2025 expected to decline further to between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion [10]. Market Potential - The oncology market is projected to reach $900 billion by 2034, representing a significant growth opportunity for Moderna if it successfully navigates clinical trials and regulatory approvals [9]. Investment Considerations - Investors need to be patient as Moderna works through its clinical trials and seeks approval for its oncology drugs, which are seen as key to regaining momentum [9][10]. - There is a risk of further stock decline if 2025 performance is weaker than expected, potentially creating better buying opportunities [11].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Moderna (MRNA) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results will compare to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Moderna is expected to report a quarterly loss of $2.99 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +10.2% [3]. - Revenue is projected to be $127.17 million, down 47.2% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.37% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - A positive Earnings ESP of +7.22% suggests analysts have recently become more optimistic about Moderna's earnings prospects [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - Moderna currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Moderna was expected to post a loss of $2.92 per share but actually reported a loss of -$2.52, resulting in a surprise of +13.70% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Moderna has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times [14]. Industry Context - In the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) is expected to post earnings of $0.02 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of -66.7% [18]. - Amicus Therapeutics' revenue is expected to be $147.5 million, up 16.4% from the previous year, with a higher Most Accurate Estimate leading to an Earnings ESP of +191.67% [19].

Company Insights - Moderna's stock (MRNA) has surged approximately 37% in the last month but has dipped around 15% year to date, with a recent trading increase of about 7% [1] - The FDA approved Moderna's supplemental Biologics License Application for Spikevax, allowing its COVID-19 vaccine for children aged six months to 11 years at increased risk for COVID-19 [1] - Moderna's mRNA-1010, a seasonal influenza vaccine candidate, achieved a relative vaccine efficacy (rVE) of 26.6% in a Phase 3 study, with specific strain efficacies of 29.6% for A/H1N1, 22.2% for A/H3N2, and 29.1% for B/Victoria lineages [2][3] - The FDA also expanded the approval of Moderna's respiratory syncytial virus vaccine to adults aged 18-59 at increased risk for the disease [3] Industry Trends - Global healthcare stocks are currently cheaper than they have been in decades, with a slow return of investment into the sector [4] - Despite low prices, investor interest remains weak due to uncertainty around U.S. drug pricing policies, including potential revival of "most-favored-nation" rules and 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports [5] - Healthcare funds have seen net inflows of $7.2 billion since early 2024, although this is still 41% lower than the previous year [7] - U.S. healthcare has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 60 percentage points in the past three years, with its valuation at a near-record 27% discount compared to the S&P [8] - Investors are awaiting a clear catalyst for the sector, with ongoing policy uncertainty complicating future earnings predictions [9]

Core Insights - Moderna has announced the cancellation of its plan to build an mRNA drug manufacturing facility in Japan due to changes in the global and Japanese business environment [1] - The construction of Moderna's factory in China is also reported to have no progress at this time [1]

受近期经营环境影响 莫德纳放弃在日本建mRNA药物活性成分工厂 智通财经7月18日电，莫德纳就拟在日本湘南健康创新园建设两座研究和制造设施发布更新。声明称， 经过对近期经营环境的慎重考虑，决定不再继续发展由莫德纳日本公司主导的mRNA药物活性成分工厂 建设计划。由Moderna Enzymatics主导的mRNA药物研究和制造设施大楼则已经完工。莫德纳表示，将 继续把日本业务扩张定位为其战略的重要组成部分。若未来商业环境变得有利，该公司计划重新考虑建 设mRNA药物活性成分工厂。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the potential for long-term investment opportunities in companies that have experienced significant stock declines but possess strong future prospects [1][3] - It highlights the case of Moderna, which has seen an 80% drop in stock price, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors [3][7] Company Overview - Moderna is recognized for its successful coronavirus vaccine, which generated $18 billion in annual revenue at its peak in 2022 [5] - The company experienced a stock price increase of over 2,000% from early 2020 to August 2021, but has since faced challenges as demand for its vaccine declined [5][6] Current Challenges - The decline in coronavirus vaccine sales has led to a significant drop in earnings, and investors have begun to view Moderna primarily as a "coronavirus vaccine stock," limiting its perceived growth potential [6][7] - Despite having a broad pipeline of candidates across various therapeutic areas, Moderna struggles with redefining its identity in the market [6] Future Growth Potential - Moderna plans to launch up to 10 new products over the next three years, which could diversify its revenue sources and reduce dependence on a single product line [7][8] - The company aims to develop a portfolio that includes vaccines for cancer, cytomegalovirus (CMV), and Norovirus, with a goal of achieving $6 billion in revenue by 2028 [9][10] Market Opportunities - The potential markets for CMV and Norovirus vaccines are estimated to be around $5 billion each, while the oncology market represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity [11] - Even achieving half of its product launch goals could result in a positive growth outlook for Moderna, making it an attractive investment opportunity at its current low stock price [12]

Company Performance - Moderna's stock closed at $33.64, down 1.87%, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.33% [1] - Over the previous month, Moderna's shares gained 25.34%, outperforming the Medical sector's loss of 0.32% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.07% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings release is anticipated, with an expected EPS of -$2.97, reflecting a 10.81% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted at $130.15 million, indicating a 46% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] Full-Year Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates predict full-year earnings of -$9.81 per share and revenue of $2.08 billion, representing year-over-year changes of -10.6% and -35.83%, respectively [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates are crucial for investors, as positive revisions indicate optimism regarding business and profitability [3] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has shown a strong track record, with 1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - Currently, Moderna holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate moving 0.26% lower over the last 30 days [5] Industry Overview - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry ranks in the top 31% of all industries, with a current Zacks Industry Rank of 76 [6] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [6]