Core Insights - Amazon and Microsoft have entered bear market territory, with declines of 23% and 27% from recent peaks, respectively [1] - Both companies met or exceeded earnings expectations, yet their stocks sold off due to concerns over capital expenditure and AI spending returns [1] Company Performance - Amazon's stock closed at $199.60, down 13.5% year-to-date and 17.7% over the past month, having peaked at $258.60 within the last 52 weeks [1] - Microsoft's stock closed at $401.84, down 16.9% year-to-date and 14.6% over the past month, with a 52-week high of $553.50 [1] - Amazon's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected at $200 billion, while Microsoft's capex rose 66% year-over-year to $37.5 billion [1] Market Sentiment - Investors are questioning the return on nearly $700 billion projected capital expenditure by Big Tech on AI-driven infrastructure [1] - Analysts have turned cautious, with Zacks rating Amazon as Hold due to premium valuation and aggressive spending outpacing AWS growth, while Microsoft received a Somewhat-Bearish rating due to high capex guidance [1] Broader Market Context - The overall market is feeling the impact of the declines in major tech stocks, with the Nasdaq-100 down 2.2% year-to-date and 4.1% over the past month [1] - Other companies in the Magnificent 7, such as Alphabet and Tesla, have also seen declines, while only Nvidia and Meta have remained relatively flat year-to-date [1]

2月13日，美国科技巨头亚马逊收盘报198.79美元/股，市值2.1万亿美元，为连续第9日下跌，创下2006年7月以来最长的连跌纪录。亚马逊股价较近期高点 累计下跌超23%，已进入技术性熊市，成为Mag7(美股七巨头)中第二家跌入熊市的公司。 微软是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员，股价于1月29日跌入熊市。截至13日收盘，微软股价较近期高点下跌27.8%。Meta可能成为下一个跌入熊市的Mag7成 员，截至周五收盘，较去年高点累跌19.6%，距离熊市的20%跌幅门槛仅差0.4%。据券商中国统计，今年以来，Mag7市值蒸发了约1.51万亿美元(折合人民 币约10.4万亿元)。 近期，美股市场轮动的趋势正愈发明显。亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet等科技巨头公布了巨额资本支出计划，加上投资者们对Anthropic新工具的担忧再度 加剧，导致众多人工智能相关的企业股票遭到抛售，资金纷纷涌入其他板块的价值型股票。 美国银行认为，2020年以来，以"七巨头"为代表的科技巨头在美股市场上的领导地位正面临"重大威胁"。随着美国中期选举的临近，投资者应逐步倾向于 投资中小盘股票。 美银首席投资策略师迈克尔.哈特内特(Michae ...

编辑｜江佩霞 记者｜吴斌 见习记者林芊蔚 与此同时，有报道指出，近日，瑞银集团和高盛相继向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交了截 至2025年12月31日的第四季度持仓报告（13F），报告显示， 两家机构对多只美股科技巨头进 行了大手笔减仓。其中，瑞银集团减持了1004.2万股英伟达，减持幅度达11.47%。 2月13日，美国科技巨头亚马逊收盘报198.79美元/股， 市值2.1万亿美元，为 连续第9日下 跌，创下2006年7月以来最长的连跌纪录 。亚马逊股价 较近期高 点累计下跌超23%，已进入 技术性熊市 ，成为Mag7（美股七巨头）中第二家跌入熊市的公司。 微软是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员，股价于1月29日跌入熊市。截至13日收盘，微软股价较近期 高点下跌27.8%。Meta可能成为下一个跌入熊市的Mag7成员，截至周五收盘，较去年高点累 跌19.6%，距离熊市的20%跌幅门槛仅差0.4%。据券商中国统计， 今年以来，Mag7市值蒸发 了约1.51万亿美元（折合人民币约10.4万亿元）。 展望未来，威尔逊分析称，人工智能赋能板块的基本面利好因素仍在，而且人工智能应用端相 关标的的投资价值仍然被低估了。那些 ...

中国基金报记者 储是 全球最大对冲基金桥水刚刚披露了最新美股持仓报告。2025年第四季度，桥水增持英伟达、亚马逊和美光科技等科技股，还增持了黄金生产商股纽蒙特。 增持科技股和黄金概念股 美东时间2月13日，桥水基金披露了最新美股持仓报告（13F）。 13F报告显示，桥水基金去年第四季度持仓总市值达274亿美元，而第三季度总市值为255亿美元。 截至2025年第四季度末，桥水的前十大标的分别是标普500指数ETF-SPDR（SPY）、标普500指数ETF-iShares（IVV）、英伟达、拉姆研究、赛富时、谷 歌、微软、亚马逊、奥多比、GE Vernova，前十大持仓标的占总市值的36.35%。 | Stock | History | Sector | Shares Held or | Market | % of | Previous % of | Rank | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Principal | Value | Portfolio | Portfolio | | | | | | Amt | | | | | ...

Group 1 - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in technology stocks and gold-related stocks in Q4 2025, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Newmont Corporation [1][2] - The total market value of Bridgewater's holdings reached $27.4 billion in Q4 2025, up from $25.5 billion in Q3 2025 [2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 36.35% of the total portfolio, with SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV) being the largest positions [2][3] Group 2 - Bridgewater increased its Nvidia shares from 2.51 million to 3.87 million, a 54% increase, and also raised its Amazon shares to 1.95 million [4] - The largest reductions in holdings were in Uber, Fiserv, Google, Meta, and Microsoft [4] - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation from the U.S. to international markets, with a notable focus on gold as a strong asset class [7][8] Group 3 - Ray Dalio emphasized that the main sources of returns in 2025 were changes in currency values and the underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to non-U.S. stocks and gold [7] - The dollar depreciated against several currencies, with a 39% decline against gold, highlighting gold's status as a strong asset [7] - Current high price-to-earnings ratios and low credit spreads indicate that overall valuations are expensive, with expected long-term stock returns at about 4.7% [8]

当中国即将踏入丙午马年春节之际，大洋彼岸的美股市场却正在经历一场罕见的"寒流"。 标普500指数本周下跌1.4%，为去年11月以来最大跌幅，且在本周五（2月13日）的交易中，超过40只 成分股出现超过3倍标准差的异常波动，这是高盛交易员记忆中的最高水平。从物流、软件到金融、保 险，AI颠覆预期的多米诺骨牌正以摧枯拉朽之势冲击着美股多个板块。一个关键问题随之而来：AI是 否已经不再是美股增长引擎，而是变成了"估值粉碎机"？ 图片来源：视觉中国 标普500指数前一交易日仅15只个股出现异常波动，周五就激增至40只，这很可能不是简单的回调，而 是市场微观结构层面的信心塌方。物流板块成为重灾区，C.H. Robinson作为美国最大的第三方物流与货 运经纪公司之一，其股价波动往往被视为行业风向标，周五其遭遇8倍标准差的暴跌，陷入程序化止损 盘与恐慌性抛售形成的"死亡螺旋"。科技巨头也集体领跌，苹果、亚马逊、微软、Meta成为指数最大拖 累。 尤其触目惊心的是，亚马逊股价九连跌，创下自2006年以来最长连跌纪录，继微软之后也正式跌入技术 性熊市，即从重要高点下跌20%及以上，标志着市场对"AI受益者"的叙事可能彻底反转 ...

Core Insights - A recent sell-off in the market has created unique buying opportunities, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, which remains a focal point for investors [1] - The demand for AI technology continues to drive significant investment opportunities, especially in companies that provide essential hardware and cloud services [1] Group 1: AI Hardware Providers - Nvidia and Broadcom are major beneficiaries of AI spending, as they produce computing equipment crucial for AI data centers, leading to strong growth prospects [4][7] - Nvidia's GPUs are the industry standard for AI computing, and the company maintains a competitive edge with its technology stack [6] - Broadcom collaborates with AI hyperscalers to design custom AI chips, enhancing its position in the market [6][7] Group 2: Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) plays a vital role in the AI ecosystem by fabricating logic chips for Nvidia and Broadcom, as well as other tech companies [8] - TSMC's advancements in 2-nanometer chip technology promise reduced power consumption, which is beneficial as AI data centers expand [10] Group 3: Cloud Computing Providers - Alphabet and Microsoft, despite recent stock sell-offs, are key players in the cloud computing industry, investing heavily to expand their AI capabilities [11] - Both companies are experiencing significant revenue growth in their cloud services, with Microsoft Azure revenue increasing by 39% and Google Cloud by 48% in their latest quarters [14] - The ongoing demand for cloud computing services supports the rationale for AI capital investment spending [12][14]

Core Insights - Hyperscalers are expected to significantly increase spending on AI infrastructure in 2026, with revised estimates suggesting a 70% increase to approximately $650 billion, surpassing initial Wall Street estimates of 19% growth [10][9]. Company Insights - Nvidia has been a key player in the AI sector, with its shares rising 1,180% since early 2023, and analysts believe the stock remains undervalued, with a median target price of $250 per share indicating a 33% upside from the current price of $187 [1][2]. - Nvidia holds over 80% market share in AI accelerators and is recognized for its full-stack strategy, which includes developing both hardware and software solutions for AI infrastructure [4][6]. - The company's networking revenue surged by 162% in the most recent quarter, highlighting its strong position in the market [5]. Industry Insights - Wall Street has consistently underestimated AI hyperscaler capital expenditures (capex), with actual growth rates far exceeding initial forecasts; for instance, capex increased by 54% in 2024 and 64% in 2025, compared to initial estimates of 19% and 22% respectively [8]. - Major companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft have announced substantial increases in their capex for AI infrastructure in 2026, with Alphabet projecting $180 billion (up 98% from 2025), Amazon $200 billion (up 56%), Meta $125 billion (up 74%), and Microsoft over $140 billion (up 59%) [11].

Core Insights - Forvis Mazars Wealth Advisors LLC increased its holdings in Microsoft by 2.9% in Q3, owning 68,760 shares valued at $35.61 million, making it the 23rd largest holding in their portfolio [2] - Institutional investors own 71.13% of Microsoft's stock, indicating strong institutional interest [3] Institutional Activity - Longfellow Investment Management Co. LLC raised its position in Microsoft by 51.3% in Q2, now holding 59 shares worth $29,000 after acquiring 20 additional shares [3] - ROSS JOHNSON & Associates LLC increased its stake by 155.7% in Q1, owning 156 shares valued at $59,000 after purchasing 95 shares [3] Analyst Ratings - HSBC lowered its target price for Microsoft from $667 to $588 while maintaining a "buy" rating [4][5] - Royal Bank Of Canada reiterated an "outperform" rating with a price objective of $640 [4][5] - The consensus rating for Microsoft is "Moderate Buy" with a price target of $591.95 [4][5] Stock Performance - Microsoft stock opened at $401.32, with a market capitalization of $2.98 trillion and a P/E ratio of 25.10 [7] - The stock has a 52-week low of $344.79 and a high of $555.45, with a current ratio of 1.39 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 [7] Earnings Report - Microsoft reported $4.14 EPS for the last quarter, exceeding estimates by $0.28, with revenue of $81.27 billion, up 16.7% year-over-year [8] - The net margin was 39.04% and return on equity was 32.34% [8] Dividend Announcement - Microsoft announced a quarterly dividend of $0.91, with an annualized dividend of $3.64 and a yield of 0.9% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The software sector is experiencing significant declines due to fears surrounding AI advancements, creating potential investment opportunities for discerning investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has entered bear market territory, dropping over 30% from its peak in early September [2]. - Concerns about AI tools disrupting traditional software and digital automation providers have led to a sell-off in legacy software and SaaS stocks [2]. Group 2: Expert Opinions - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives argue that the software industry is not in decline and that the current sell-off is exaggerated, suggesting that enterprises will not abandon established software for unproven technologies [3]. - Ives believes this situation presents a buying opportunity for reputable technology stocks [3]. Group 3: Company Highlights - **Microsoft**: - Stock has fallen 25% from its peak and is trading at 25 times earnings, with a price target of $575, indicating a potential upside of 42% [6]. - The company is heavily invested in AI, integrating it across its products and services, and its Azure Cloud solutions are seeing strong demand [5][6]. - **CrowdStrike**: - The stock has decreased by 25% and is trading at 22 times sales, with a price target of $600, suggesting a 44% upside [8]. - CrowdStrike specializes in cybersecurity and is well-positioned to protect against AI-driven threats [7][8]. - **Snowflake**: - The stock has dropped 35% from its peak and is trading at 13 times sales, with a price target of $270, indicating a potential upside of 51% [11]. - Snowflake's AI-centric platform enhances data management and security, benefiting from increased AI adoption [10][11]. - **Salesforce**: - The stock has fallen 44% and is trading at 25 times earnings, with a price target of $375, implying a potential upside of 103% [13]. - Salesforce has a long history in CRM solutions and has integrated AI into its offerings, creating a strong competitive advantage [12][13]. - **Palantir Technologies**: - The stock has decreased by 36% and is trading at 210 times earnings, with a price target of $230, suggesting a 70% upside [16]. - Palantir's AI platform is in high demand, providing real-time solutions and a strong ROI for businesses [15][16]. - Ives predicts Palantir could become a trillion-dollar market cap company, indicating a long-term upside of 209% [17].