证券研究报告 | 2025年12月02日 2025年12月03日 2025年12月04日 计算机行业 2025 年 12 月投资策略暨财报总结 优于大市 2025Q3：海外大厂业绩均超预期，资本开支持续上行 近期海外大厂持续公布 2025 年三季度财报，业绩均超预期。微软 FY26Q1 营 收 776.7 亿美元，同比+ 18%，略超出市场预期的 756 亿美元；净利润为 277.5 亿美元，同比+ 12%；每股收益（EPS）达到 3.72 美元，同比+13%。谷歌 FY25Q3 实现收入 1023.46 亿美元，同比+15.95%、环比+6.14%，超彭博一致预期 （998.43 亿美元）；实现净利润 349.79 亿元，同比+32.99%、环比+24.06%； 实现 EPS 2.87 美元，同比+35.38%、环比+24.24%，大超市场预期。Meta 25Q3 公司实现总收入为 512.42 亿美元，同比增长 26.25%，超业绩指引上限的 505 亿美元以及彭博一致预期的494.26亿美元。亚马逊FY25Q3实现收入1801.69 亿美元，同比+13%、环比+7%，超市场预期（1777.5 亿美元）； ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美股机器人赛道突然爆发。 隔夜美股市场，机器人概念股全线爆发，Nauticus Robotics盘中一度暴涨超135%，iRobot一度暴涨近 80%，特斯拉大涨超4%。消息面上，特朗普政府准备加速推进机器人技术的发展。有消息人士透露，美 国商务部长卢特尼克近期一直在与机器人行业的多位CEO会面。美国交通部也正准备成立一个机器人工作 组，可能在年底前宣布。 宏观数据方面，据最新发布的"小非农"ADP就业数据，美国私营企业11月份裁员人数创2023年以来新 高，加剧了市场对劳动力市场更加疲软的担忧，进一步强化了投资者对美联储将在12月议息会议上降息 的预期。据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已升至89%。 全线爆发 美东时间12月3日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨0.86%，标普500指数涨0.3%，纳指涨0.17%。 美股大型科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉大涨超4%，谷歌、台积电涨超1%；微软跌超2%，英伟达、Meta跌超 1%，苹果、亚马逊、博通小幅收跌。 其中，美股机器人概念股全线爆发，Na ...

新 3 社 主管主办 上海登录家 中国山 参加 市场回顾 12月3日美股机器人概念股走高 12月3日LME期铜剑历史新高 国际宏观 美国"小非农"创两年半来最大降幅 特朗普:美特使与俄总统的会面"相当不错" 特朗普政府准备加速推进机器人技术的发展 企业资讯 美光宣布关闭零售渠道业务 专注于AI时代的 先进存储芯片竞争 矿业巨头嘉能可宣布将在未来10年里将铜产 量 -- 答 苹果设计高管艾伦·戴伊将离职加入Meta担 任首席设计官 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价刷新历史新高，交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨 大关，亦创历史新高。 nd station 【市场回顾】 12月4日，日经225指数涨0.14%，报49932.93点；韩国KOSPI指数跌0.43%，报4018.91点。 美东时间周三，美股三大指数低开高走，集体收涨。截至收盘，标普500指数涨0.3%，报6849.72点；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.17%，报23454.09点；道琼斯 工业平均指数涨0.86%，报47882.9点。 美东时间周三，美股机器人概念股走高，Nauticus Rob ...

【#CEO称微软规模太大在AI时代成劣势#】科技媒体 Windows Report 昨日（12 月 3 日）发布博文，报 道称在接受 Axel Springer CEO 马蒂亚斯・多普夫纳（Mathias Döpfner）采访时，微软首席执行官萨蒂 亚・纳德拉（Satya Nadella）坦言，微软庞大的企业规模已成为其在 AI 竞赛中的"巨大劣势"。 相比之下，微软内部拥有多个部门领导和复杂的层级结构，产品开发需要跨越层层审批。这种结构上的 差异，直接导致了巨头在响应速度上难以企及初创公司。（IT之家） 纳德拉透露，他现在会利用周末时间专门研究初创公司的运作模式，试图解开小团队高效创新的密码。 纳德拉通过对比指出了问题的核心。 他观察到，初创企业通常由科学家、工程师和基础设施专家组成精干团队，大家围坐在"一张小桌子"旁 即可完成从创意到落地的全过程，决策往往在瞬间产生。 ...

Group 1: Institutional Insights and Market Analysis - Foreign institutions have conducted over 9,000 investigations into A-share listed companies this year, signaling a positive outlook on Chinese assets [1][4] - Notable foreign institutions such as Point72 Asset Management and Goldman Sachs are leading in research frequency, focusing on technology innovation and high-end manufacturing as key sectors [1][4] Group 2: External Markets and Related Assets - On Wednesday, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.86%, Nasdaq up 0.17%, and S&P 500 up 0.30%; Tesla rose over 4% and Oracle over 3%, while Microsoft fell over 2% and Nvidia dropped 1% [2][5] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.37%, with significant declines in stocks such as Aters down 9.38%, Haitian Network down 7.98%, Jinko Solar down 5.67%, and NIO down 4.97% [2][5] - In commodities, Shanghai tin futures rose 3.59% to 320,440 CNY/ton, the highest since April 2022, while LME three-month tin also increased by 4.21% to 40,685 USD/ton [2][5] Group 3: Important Announcements from Listed Companies - On December 3, Zhihong Home disclosed its shareholding increase; concurrently, 15 A-share listed companies, including Tengjing Technology, Dongfang Electric, and Shanxi Fenjiu, announced shareholding reduction plans [3][6]

大型科技股涨跌不一。特斯拉涨超4%，甲骨文涨超3%，阿斯麦、高通涨超2%，谷歌-A、台积电、超 威半导体涨超1%，英特尔小幅上涨，博通、苹果、亚马逊小幅下跌，英伟达、Meta、波音跌超1%，微 软跌超2%，奈飞跌超4%。 美国11月ADP就业人数意外减少3.2万 周三美股开盘之前，薪资处理机构ADP报告称，11月私营部门就业人数意外减少3.2万人。道琼斯调查 的经济学家此前预计当月将增加4万人。 这份数据表现不佳，显示劳动力市场萎缩，使交易员增大了美联储在下周货币政策会议上降息的预期。 根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储在下周三降息的可能性为89%，远高于11月中旬时预测 的几率。 投资者预期较低的利率环境将刺激贷款增长并给美国经济带来提振，这推动富国银行和美国运通等关键 金融股股价走高。 微软下调AI软件销售预期 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块九涨二跌。能源板块和金融板块分别以1.83%和1.27%的涨幅领涨， 科技板块和公用事业板块分别下跌0.42%和0.32%。 当地时间12月3日（周三），美股三大指数集体收高，道指上涨超过400点。最新ADP就业数据显示劳动 力市场萎缩，使投资者 ...

Group 1: Key Developments in Technology and AI - Maiwell Technology announced the acquisition of Celestial AI for $3.25 billion to enhance its technology layout and market competitiveness in the AI computing sector, which will help expand its AI chip business applications and customer base [2] - Tesla showcased a running segment of its humanoid robot Optimus, indicating significant breakthroughs in motion control technology, which may accelerate the commercialization of robots [2] - Amazon's AWS launched the 3nm AI chip Trainium3, achieving three times the computing speed of its predecessor and reducing AI model training and operational costs by 50% compared to equivalent GPU systems [7] Group 2: Developments in the Greater China Region - Xiaomi Auto has delivered over 500,000 units since April 3, 2024, marking a significant improvement in its competitiveness in the new energy vehicle market [4] - JD Group's industrial supply chain service provider, JD Industrial, has officially launched its IPO, aiming to raise up to HKD 3.27 billion by issuing 210 million shares priced between HKD 12.7 and HKD 15.5 [4] - Taiwan's Tigerair plans to lease 11 new A321neo aircraft and purchase 4, with a total investment of nearly NT$40 billion, aimed at enhancing fleet fuel efficiency and reducing operating costs per seat [5] Group 3: Semiconductor and Chip Industry Updates - TSMC is facing a lawsuit due to the leakage of its 2nm technology, which may impact its technology confidentiality and market competition landscape [5] - Samsung Electronics has surpassed SK Hynix in HBM production, becoming the global leader, while NAND Flash and DRAM shortages are intensifying [10] - SK Hynix's Dalian company increased its investment to $3.1 billion, but its market share in HBM has fallen to second place behind Samsung [10] Group 4: Automotive Industry Insights - Toyota's revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025-2028 are projected at ¥50.25 trillion, ¥51.51 trillion, and ¥51.71 trillion, with net profits of ¥3.36 trillion, ¥4.09 trillion, and ¥4.27 trillion respectively [10] - Mercedes-Benz launched its pure electric CLA, featuring an 89 kWh battery with a range of 866 kilometers, priced between ¥249,000 and ¥299,900 [13]

Group 1 - China's self-developed reusable launch vehicle Zhuque-3 successfully completed its maiden flight, marking a new milestone in the country's commercial space industry, with predictions that the industry could reach a scale of 7-10 trillion yuan by 2030 [2] - The U.S. ADP employment report for November showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs, the largest drop in two and a half years, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government is promoting new urbanization as a key driver for expanding domestic demand and upgrading industries, emphasizing the need for urban renewal and addressing the urban-rural dual structure [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported that the trade-in program for consumer goods has generated over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting over 360 million people [3] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.78%, while the coal sector saw gains [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.28%, with significant net buying from southbound funds, particularly in Alibaba [5] Group 4 - New active equity funds have shown signs of building positions, with over 80% of newly established funds experiencing net value fluctuations, while the consensus is to focus on AI applications for future allocations [6] - Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market to "overweight," citing a higher risk of significant gains compared to losses [6] Group 5 - The Chinese government has initiated a parenting subsidy program for families with children under three years old, with over 30 million applications submitted and approved [4] - Cambodia will implement a visa-free policy for Chinese citizens from June to October 2026, allowing for multiple entries [4] Group 6 - The cultural and tourism sector in China is set to integrate with the civil aviation industry through a new action plan aimed at enhancing domestic travel accessibility and developing low-altitude tourism [9] - The Chinese passenger car market saw retail sales of 2.263 million units in November, a year-on-year decline of 7%, while the new energy vehicle market grew by 7% [9] Group 7 - The China Internet Finance Association is enhancing self-regulation for financial applications and mini-programs, aiming to mitigate risks associated with digital financial channels [10] - Binance appointed co-founder He Yi as co-CEO to expand its global business and strengthen compliance efforts [10] Group 8 - The U.S. stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.86%, while the tech sector faced declines, particularly in Chinese concept stocks [15] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the French market benefiting from consumer sector resilience [15] Group 9 - The domestic bond market experienced narrow fluctuations, with most interest rates rising, while the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation [17] - The U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [17] Group 10 - International precious metals futures generally rose, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and positive economic data from Europe [18] - Crude oil prices increased amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [18]

来源：@究竟视频微博 明星科技股涨跌互现，微软跌2.5%。媒体援引微软Azure云业务部门两名销售人员的说法，由于在6月 底结束的财年中，多款人工智能产品均未达成销售目标，微软多个业务部门已下调了部分人工智能产品 的销售增长指标。消息传出后，微软股价跳水。随后，微软否认相关报道，跌幅有所收窄。 【降息稳了！#美股拉升道指涨超400点#，AI利空突袭#微软盘中跳水# 】周三美国股市三大股指集体走 高。最新公布的私营企业就业岗位意外减少，推动美国国债收益率走低，进而使下周美联储降息的概率 小幅上升。截至收盘，道指涨408.44点，涨幅0.86%，报47882.90点，纳指涨0.17%，报23454.09点，标 普500指数涨0.30%，报6849.72点。 ...

坏消息即好消息，美国股债涨，微软跌2.5%，iRobot盘中飙涨近80%，人民币升破7.06，伦铜新高。 李 强主持国务院第十七次专题学习。 贝森特淡化美联储主席对利率掌控权，拟推动设地区联储主席居住 年限，称关税可重构。白宫取消原定面试流程，新美联储主席哈塞特"呼之欲出"。报道：债券投资者针 对哈塞特出任美联储主席的可能性警告美国财政部。 美国11月ADP意外下滑，就业人数减少3.2万人， 创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增。 美国ISM服务业指数扩张速度创九个月最快，价格 指标七个月新低，就业指数六个月新高。 报道称微软下调AI软件销售配额，股价跌近3%，微软否认。 Meta出手挖角：报道称苹果设计高管Alan Dye带副手跳槽。 AI应用利好，Salesforce料本季营收劲增超 10%，上调全年指引，盘后跳涨。 与OpenAI竞逐上市！报道：Anthropic聘请IPO律师，计划最早于2026 年上市。 特朗普政府All in！据称考虑明年发机器人行政令，iRobot盘中飙涨近80%。 中国商业航天新 里程碑：朱雀三号首飞成功入轨，一级回收失利。 豆包手机助手触发微信账号强制下线？豆包、 ...