Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The AI application landscape is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements expected in 2026, which will impact traditional sectors such as software, film, and media [6]. - Domestic AI models are increasingly competitive with international counterparts, particularly in terms of performance and cost, suggesting a potential shift in the global AI model competition [6]. - The demand for AI inference is rising sharply, leading to increased pricing actions from model and cloud service providers, which benefits companies within the industry [6]. Industry Data Summary 1. Industry Data - The software industry in 2025 is projected to generate revenues of 15.48 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [12]. - The IC design sector is expected to grow by 18.9% in 2025, while cloud computing and big data services are anticipated to grow by 13.6% [19]. - The information technology service revenue is expected to increase by 14.7%, further solidifying its share of the overall software business revenue to 68.7% [27]. 2. AI Developments - Major AI models are being released, with significant competition expected in the market, particularly with the upcoming launches of models like DeepSeek-V4 and others in February 2026 [33]. - The pricing of domestic models is significantly lower than that of international models, enhancing their attractiveness for various applications [39]. - The user engagement for AI applications is increasing, with notable growth in active users for platforms like Gemini and ChatGPT [44]. 3. Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic chip manufacturers are expected to benefit from restrictions on foreign competitors, with companies like Huawei and Dawning making significant advancements in AI computing capabilities [6]. - The report highlights the increasing capital expenditures from overseas tech firms, raising concerns about market dynamics [6]. - The MaaS (Model as a Service) market is projected to grow rapidly, with significant contributions from companies like ByteDance and Alibaba [56].

通信 周跟踪（20260202-20260208） 领先大市-A(维持) ——北美资本开支增长并未见顶，Scaleup 是光通信重要增量 2026 年 2 月 13 日 行业研究/行业周报 通信行业近一年市场表现 行业动向： 1）北美主要 CSP 陆续发布财报，AI 飞轮高速运转，2026 资本开支指引超 预期。近期，北美主要 CSP 完成了 2025 年度财报的公布，普遍向外界传达的信 号是 AI 已从成本中心转为收入引擎，继续扩大投资急迫且真实。 资料来源：常闻 相关报告： 【山证通信】——moltbot 爆火背后 1.1 云业务通过 AI 算力与工具实现高增。例如，AWS 云销售额同比增长 20% 达到 1287 亿美元，其 Bedrock 上托管的 20+个模型得到客户来自项目编程、推理 和代理工作流程的全面需求。谷歌云 2025 年末年化营收突破 700 亿美元成为增 长最快的核心业务，主要得益于企业 AI 基础设施、AI 解决方案及核心云服务的 强劲客户需求。微软 Azure 的年收入已超过 750 亿美元，同比增长 34%，主要来 自 OpenAI 等大客户的长期订单、Azure AI Foun ...

撰稿：史玥明 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周四晚间，微软AI首席执行官Mustafa Suleyman表示，律师、会计师、项目经理和营销人员等从事电脑 办公的专业人士，其"大多数任务"将在未来12至18个月内被AI完全自动化。AI颠覆预期如同多米诺骨牌 般冲击美股各个行业板块，商品市场流动性同样收紧，银价大幅下跌。截至发稿前，沪银主力合约再次 回落至20000大关下方，日内最大跌幅超9%。 尽管贵金属春节前释放了大部分风险，不过春节期间同样面临严峻考验。数据方面，春节期间重点关注 2月20日公布的美国四季度实际GDP初值。市场预期受到美国政府关门影响，美国四季度实际GDP增速 至少下降1.5%，预计环比折年率初值为2.9%，较前值的4.4%大幅回落。若数据降幅超预期，在2026年 初通胀持续顽固、美联储暂停降息的大背景下，市场可能强化对于美国经济陷入滞涨的交易，警惕风险 资产价格大幅回调与美元流动性风险溢出的再度发生。地缘方面，俄乌边打边谈的局面仍在继续，而美 伊首轮间接会谈也未取得实质性进展。美国在会谈期间美国加派军事力量强化在中东的威吓，并且特朗 普正式签署命令授权对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [4][7]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the communication industry index increased by 5.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (+3.76%), CSI 300 Index (+1.65%), Shenzhen Component Index (+5.03%), and ChiNext Index (+4.47%) [3][13]. - The capital expenditure of the four major North American cloud providers is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 [6][24]. - The procurement results for special optical cables by China Mobile indicate that eight manufacturers, including Tongding Interconnection and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, have been selected, highlighting the focus on key sectors such as industrial manufacturing and digital government [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The communication industry index showed a strong performance in January 2026, with a 5.47% increase, outperforming major indices [3][13]. - Sub-sectors within the communication industry saw varied performance, with cable, other communication equipment, and system equipment rising by 19.70%, 10.72%, and 7.85% respectively [16]. Telecommunications Sector - In 2025, the telecommunications business revenue reached CNY 1.75 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [6][45]. - By December 2025, 5G mobile phone users accounted for 65.9% of total mobile phone users, with a monthly data usage (DOU) of 23.04GB per user, reflecting a 17.0% year-on-year increase [6][45]. Cloud Infrastructure Investment - The combined capital expenditure of the four major North American cloud providers in Q4 2025 was USD 126 billion, marking a 62.0% year-on-year increase [24][25]. - For 2026, the total capital expenditure guidance for these providers exceeds USD 660 billion, with an expected growth of 61.0% [24][25]. AI and Smartphone Market - The retail sales of communication equipment in China increased by 20.9% year-on-year in December 2025, driven by the demand for smartphones [44]. - The global smartphone shipment is projected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, with AI smartphones expected to penetrate 34% of the market by 2025 [6][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in optical devices, optical chips, optical modules, and AI smartphones, including Tianfu Communication, ZTE, and China Mobile [7][6].

摩根士丹利：历史性做空潮卷土重来 摩根士丹利在题为《对冲基金重启做空，软件股做空创2010年来单日最大增幅》的报告中指出，对冲基金在周三和周四转向大举做空，扭转了近期美股的空 头回补趋势。新增空头高度集中于软件板块，总规模在2010年以来历史单日排名中位居前五。 软件及SaaS板块成为做空焦点，新增空头规模已超越1月末水平。此前遭遇大量空头回补的基础设施软件股也未能幸免，重新面临沉重做空压力。相比之 下，多头仓位减持规模有限，使得整体净卖出压力仍明显轻于1月末事件。 美国软件股正遭遇十余年来最猛烈的做空攻击。摩根士丹利数据显示，周三和周四软件及SaaS板块的单日做空规模触及2010年以来最高水平之一，此前短 暂的空头回补反弹迅速夭折。高盛交易台形容市场呈现"先卖出、再问问题"的恐慌情绪。 对冲基金在经历短暂回补后迅速重启做空策略。摩根士丹利报告显示，周三至周四新增空头规模仅略低于1月29日历史高点，软件板块新增空头甚至超过1月 末水平。此前曾遭大举回补的基础设施软件股也再次承受沉重做空压力。 AI取代人类工作的担忧正向更多子行业扩散。市场情绪受微软AI部门CEO关于"多数白领岗位将在12个月内被AI取代"言论 ...

智通财经APP获悉，前摩根大通全球研究首席策略师兼联席主管马尔科·科拉诺维奇周四表示，人工智 能交易正在上演戏剧性反转——若某家科技巨头收紧AI基础设施支出，转守利润与现金流，市场反而 有望迎来反弹。 今年科技股主导的抛售潮中，软件板块首当其冲。市场既在定价AI颠覆性冲击带来的不安，又日益担 忧超大规模厂商资本开支持续攀升，或已触及不可持续水平。与此同时，资金向价值股的显著轮动，正 成为2026年市场主线之一。 科拉诺维奇在社交平台X上发文称："讽刺之处在于，市场若要反弹，反而需要某家超大规模厂商或软 件公司站出来表态——将停止AI投资(不再采购价格虚高的内存)，重归现金流导向。" 微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌(GOOGL.US)、亚马逊(META.US)及Meta Platforms(META.US)均已公布今年AI投 资计划，合计规模高达6500亿美元。 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones has reached a record high of 50,000, but the focus should be on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, where signs of weakness are emerging [1] - Concerns are rising regarding the impact of 'Agentic AI' on software companies operating on SaaS models, such as Salesforce and Wisetech, indicating potential self-cannibalization within the tech sector [2][3] AI and Technology - 'Agentic AI' combines ChatGPT with autonomous data collation capabilities, becoming a significant topic of investment interest [2] - The emergence of AI agents is perceived as a potential threat to software margins, although this fear may be exaggerated [5] Commodities - Gold prices have stabilized around US$5,000/oz, with no recent highs reported, suggesting a market reassessment of future economic conditions [6] - Rare earth element Neodymium prices are recovering, returning to late-COVID highs, indicating potential future growth in REE stocks [9][10][12] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The upcoming US inflation report is anticipated to influence market expectations for the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting [12][13] Uranium Market - Despite a drop in uranium prices, uranium stocks in the US have increased, highlighting a disconnect in market performance [14] - Major tech companies, including Meta, Google, and Microsoft, are planning to operate nuclear power plants to support data centers, generating market hype and potential tax benefits [15][16]

Goldman Sachs reaffirms a "Buy" rating for Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), with a current stock price of $401.84.The recent sell-off in Microsoft's stock is attributed to a reset in multiples and product mix shift, not a decrease in structural demand.Microsoft's investment in artificial intelligence impacts its near-term free cash flow, yet strong bookings indicate sustained demand.Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is a leading technology company known for its software products, cloud services, and h ...

Core Insights - The recent performance of Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) highlights contrasting trajectories for these two technology giants [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Meta has been facing challenges, while Microsoft has shown resilience and growth in its business operations [1] - Microsoft’s strategic focus on cloud services and AI has contributed to its positive performance [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The tech industry is experiencing a bifurcation, with some companies thriving while others struggle [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the developments in both companies as they reflect broader market trends [1]

America Isn't Ready for What AI Will Do to Jobs 有人知道接下来会发生什么吗？ 作者：乔什·泰兰吉尔 插图：Stephan Dybus 1869年，一群马萨诸塞州的改革者说服该州尝试一个简单的想法：计数。 第二次工业革命席卷新英格兰，给工厂主们上了一堂课，这堂课如今大多数MBA学生在第一学期 就能学到：效率的提升往往来自某个地方，而那个地方通常是别人。新机器不仅仅是纺棉布或锻 造钢铁。它们的运转速度远超人体——这台历经数百万年进化而来的精妙机械，原本是为了完全 不同的目的而设计的——所能承受的极限。工厂主们深知这一点，就像他们也知道，人们能够忍 受的痛苦是有限度的，超过这个限度，他们就会开始纵火。 然而，机器依然不停地运转着。 于是，马萨诸塞州创建了美国第一个劳工统计局，希望数据能够弥补良知的不足。通过衡量工 时、工作条件、工资以及经济学家现在所说的"负外部性"（当时却被称作"砍断孩子的手臂"）， 政策制定者认为他们或许能够为所有人创造相对公平的结果。或者，如果你更愤世嫉俗一些，那 就是一种可持续的剥削。几年后，联邦军队向罢工的铁路工人开枪，富裕公民资助私人军火库 ...