Core Viewpoint - The Schall Law Firm is investigating Microsoft Corporation for potential violations of securities laws related to misleading statements and undisclosed information affecting investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation centers on whether Microsoft issued false or misleading statements or failed to disclose critical information to investors [2]. - Following the Q2 2026 financial results announcement on January 28, 2026, Microsoft shares fell nearly 10% due to capacity constraints associated with AI [2]. - Microsoft CFO Amy Hood indicated that approximately 45% of the commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI, with the remaining balance growing by 28%, reflecting strong customer demand [2].

Market Overview - The global financial markets experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply after reaching historical highs, with maximum intraday declines of over 5% and 8% respectively [1][9][10] - The U.S. stock market also faced turbulence, with the Nasdaq index plunging 2.6% at one point before closing down 0.72% [2][11] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a major sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping over 5% to below $85,000, while Ethereum and other altcoins experienced declines exceeding 6% [3][6] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also suffered, with Strategy stock falling over 9% and Coinbase Global down more than 4% [5] Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, falling from a peak of $5,600 per ounce to $5,105.83, marking a maximum drop of 5.7% before rebounding [9] - Silver prices also fell from a historical high of $121.67 per ounce to $106.80, with a maximum intraday decline of 8.5% [9] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing skepticism regarding Bitcoin's status as a macro hedge, as it has underperformed compared to gold and silver despite rising geopolitical tensions [6][7] - Recent data indicates that Bitcoin holders have entered a loss realization phase for the first time in 2023, suggesting a decline in investor confidence [6] Corporate Earnings Impact - Microsoft shares plummeted nearly 12% during trading after reporting a slowdown in cloud business growth, impacting the software sector significantly [11][12] - Other tech stocks reacted variably, with Meta seeing a 10.4% increase after announcing substantial capital expenditure plans, while other companies like ServiceNow and SAP faced declines [12][13]

金融期货早评 宏观：美政府再次面临部分停摆 【市场资讯】1）英国首相斯塔默：在华会谈取得了实质性成果。2）美国财政部发布报告： 未将任何经济体列入汇率操纵名单。3）美参议院未能推进拨款法案，联邦政府再次面临 "停摆"危机，国土安全部的拨款或另起法案。4）美国总统特朗普称，明天上午将宣布美联 储主席人选。 1. 微软 AI 支出引爆忧虑，股价暴跌 10%，拖累美股大盘。贵金属巨震。 2. 特朗普：将于明早（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【策略建议】短期内，建议出口企业可在 7.01 附近，择机逢高分批锁定远期结汇，以规避 汇率回落可能导致的收益缩水风险；进口企业则可在 6.93 关口附近采取滚动购汇的策略。 【重要资讯】1）美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门。 2）美国总统特朗普：将于明天早上（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【风险提示】海外经济数据超预期、特朗普政策超预期 重要声明：以上内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 股指：短期预计延续调整 【市场回顾】 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 关键过渡阶段。海外方面，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft experienced a significant stock sell-off, resulting in a market cap loss of $357 billion, marking the second-largest single-day market cap loss in U.S. history [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft's stock price plummeted by 10%, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [1]. - The company's market cap loss exceeded the total market cap of over 90% of the S&P 500 index members [1]. - This event follows a historical precedent where Nvidia faced a $593 billion market cap loss in January 2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Results and AI Investment - Microsoft's recent earnings report revealed record AI spending, with capital expenditures increasing by 66% to $37.5 billion [3]. - The growth rate of the Azure cloud computing business has slowed compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Microsoft faces capacity constraints in AI demand, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaling $625 billion, of which approximately 45% is linked to its partnership with OpenAI [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Commentary - There is growing skepticism among investors regarding the return on investment (ROI) from Microsoft's substantial AI expenditures [3]. - Analysts suggest that Microsoft's stock may need to be revalued to align with its historical fair value due to the perceived lack of strong ROI from AI investments [3].

权益类与FOF基金齐发力 新发基金规模突破千亿元 今年以来，新基金发行速度加快，总规模已超千亿元。权益类基金与FOF产品频现爆款，多只基金发行 规模超30亿元，部分基金一日售罄。截至1月29日，年内新成立110只基金，发行规模合计1105.4亿元， 其中85只为权益类基金，合计768.1亿元。广发研究智选混合基金等多只基金发行规模居前。FOF产品 也保持高热度，2025年发行规模已突破800亿元。此外，市场上仍有逾百只基金正在或即将发行，权益 类基金和FOF产品成为主力。业内人士对A股市场持乐观态度，重点关注科技成长行业。(上海证券报) 科创板超260份业绩预告出炉 订单增长彰显发展潜力 随着上市公司2025年业绩预告进入密集披露期，多家科创板企业年度业绩"答卷"也提前揭晓。数据显 示，截至1月29日19时30分，超260家科创板公司公布2025年业绩预告，从披露情况来看，报喜公司（包 括预增、扭亏、略增）数量达105家，占比约四成，还有超50家公司预计同比减亏。业内人士认为，科 创板紧密连接国家科技创新战略，聚焦人工智能、生物医药等前沿领域，其制度创新吸引优质企业上 市，并不断吸引"耐心资本"入场。目前随着 ...

"Microsoft disappointed and there are some ‌genuine concerns that AI investments will eat the software companies' lunches," said John Praveen, managing director & Co-CIO, Paleo Leon in Princeton, New Jersey. Investors are trying to "reduce exposure to stocks and play it safe" against a backdrop of broader uncertainties including who the Federal Reserve's next chair will be and how many interest rate cuts it will make, according to Praveen who also cited political uncertainties around Washington's stance in ...

中证网讯①据国投瑞银基金公告称，国投白银LOF将于1月30日开市起停牌至收市。此外，原油LOF易 方达、嘉实原油LOF等将自1月30日开市起停牌一小时。 ②当地时间1月29日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，大型科技股多数上涨。美国科技巨头微软股价重 挫，跌近10%。 ③商品方面，国际金银现货价格一度重挫，随后快速回升，期现货价格走势分化。(张舒琳) ...

Core Insights - Microsoft reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $81.3 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, with operating income up 21% and adjusted EPS at $4.14, reflecting a 24% increase [1] - Cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, reaching $51.5 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year [1] - The company’s commercial order volume grew by 230% year-over-year, driven by significant long-term commitments from clients like OpenAI [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue: $81.3 billion, up 17% YoY (15% at constant currency) [1] - Operating income: up 21% YoY (19% at constant currency) [1] - Adjusted EPS: $4.14, up 24% YoY (21% at constant currency) [1] - Cloud revenue: $51.5 billion, up 26% YoY (24% at constant currency) [1] - Gross margin: 67% [1] Business Outlook - Q3 revenue forecast: $80.65 billion to $81.75 billion, a 15%-17% YoY increase [1] - Expected cost of revenue: $26.65 billion to $26.85 billion, a 22% YoY increase [1] - Anticipated operating expenses: $17.8 billion to $17.9 billion, a 10%-11% YoY increase [1] - Capital expenditures expected to decrease quarter-over-quarter due to normal fluctuations in cloud infrastructure construction [1] Strategic Focus - The company’s strategy emphasizes three layers of technology stack: cloud and token factory, agent platform, and superior agent experience [2] - The impact of AI on GDP and Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth is just beginning [2] - The agent platform is seen as the next generation of application platforms, requiring various services for deployment and management [2] Capital Expenditure and ROI - CapEx growth is driven by long-term demand, with investments aimed at supporting applications like M365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot [3] - Azure's growth guidance is linked to capacity allocation rather than immediate revenue [3] - The average contract duration for RPO has increased from 2 years to 2.5 years, indicating a more stable revenue outlook [3] OpenAI Partnership - Approximately 45% of the unfulfilled orders (RPO) are related to OpenAI, with the remaining 55% reflecting a diverse business portfolio [4][5] - The partnership with OpenAI is viewed positively, contributing to Microsoft's leadership in technology and application innovation [5] Capacity Expansion - The company is focused on increasing capacity globally, with significant projects in Atlanta and Wisconsin [6] - Long-term infrastructure development is prioritized to ensure efficient deployment of GPU and CPU resources [6] Chip Development - The Maia 200 accelerator shows significant performance improvements, enhancing Microsoft's competitive edge in AI workloads [6] - Continuous innovation in chip design and system optimization is crucial for maintaining cost advantages [7] Client Transformation - Clients adopting Microsoft’s AI technology stack are experiencing transformative benefits, with potential for increased spending as they become "frontier firms" [8] - The deployment of agents is changing how companies coordinate work, leading to greater impact [8] Cloud Migration Trends - Ongoing cloud migration is evident, with services like SQL Server on Azure showing growth [9] - The need for a balanced approach between commercial cloud and AI cloud is emphasized as clients migrate workloads [9]

【环球网财经综合报道】日前，全球最大主权财富基金——挪威政府全球养老基金公布数据，2025年投资收益 达到2.36万亿挪威克朗，约合2465亿美元；年投资回报率为15.1%。其中，股票投资表现尤为突出，回报率达 19.3%，大型科技股是该基金业绩的核心驱动力，其前五大持仓包括英伟达、苹果、微软、Alphabet和亚马逊。 半岛电视台对此发文称，该基金投资的一半以上在美国，其中大部分在股票和债券中，最大的10项投资占股票 投资组合的20%。基金CEO尼科莱·延森分析称："特别是在原材料行业，我们看到了强劲的表现。你们看到了 金属，如黄金、白银、铜等价格的上涨，这对业绩有很大帮助。金融行业也表现强劲，而房地产行业则表现最 差。" 报道也提到，到2025年下半年，挪威主权基金已将其在美国最大科技公司的股份降低，包括对芯片巨头英特尔 的投资份额从6月到年底从1.32%降至1.26%，对微软的投资份额从1.35%降至1.26% 该基金还预计，如果全球经济因地缘政治环境恶化，其投资组合可能会总体下降37%，这将超过人工智能场景 35%的预期影响。 ...

: US stocks ended Thursday’s session mixed as investors digested disappointing earnings from Microsoft alongside the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, while weakness across software stocks weighed heavily on tech-heavy indexes.US stock market today: S&P 500 dips, Nasdaq slides while Dow Jones posts modest gainsThe S&P 500 slipped 0.13% to close at 6,969.01, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.72% to 23,685.12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, rising 55.96 points, or 0.11%, to f ...