证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 电子 周观点：AI 闭环逐步形成，海外业绩印证存力景气周期 SK 海力士业绩超预期，服务器成为公司发展主要动力。SK 海力士 2025 年营收达 97.1 万亿韩元，同比增长 47%；营业利润为 47.2 万亿韩元，同 比增长 101%，两项指标都为历史最高，并且远超 2024 年水平。2025Q4 表现特别突出，营收 32.83 万亿韩元，同比增长 66%，环比增长 34%， 创单季度营收新高，这主要是因为 DRAM 和 NAND 价格与出货量同时增 长。其中 DRAM 出货量环比增长低个位数，ASP 环比上涨中 20%；NAND 出货量环比增长约 10%，ASP 环比上涨近 30%。2025Q4 的营业利润是 19.17 万亿韩元，同比增长 137%，环比增长 68%，营业利润率 58%，净 利润 15.25 万亿韩元，净利润率 46%，毛利率 69%。受全球 AI 基础设施 投资加剧推动，内存产品需求依旧旺盛，服务器内存需求大幅增长；但是 因为行业供应增速跟不上需求节奏，供需关系持续紧张。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期 ...

（原标题：美股迎来高风险窗口期?动荡一周过后 美国1月非农及谷歌、亚马逊财报成市场焦点） 智通财经APP获悉，在投资者消化科技股抛售、贵金属剧烈波动以及美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什为 下一任美联储主席的消息后，美股三大股指上周五全线收跌——道琼斯指数跌0.36%，标普500指数跌 0.43%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.94%，但全周变化不大——道琼斯指数全周累跌0.4%，标普500指数累涨 0.3%，纳斯达克综合指数累跌0.2%。 美股上周部分最剧烈的股市波动来自科技股。尽管Meta(META.US)和微软(MSFT.US)在最新财报中都宣 布了更高的支出目标，但二者获得的市场反馈截然相反——Meta上周四收涨10.4%、上周累涨8.8%，而 微软上周四收跌近10%、上周累跌7.7%。 Meta 2025年第四季度各项核心指标均显著超越市场预期，支出规模则持续攀升——2026年资本开支预 计将达到1150亿至1350亿美元，远超市场预期的1106亿美元左右，在市场看来，Meta正处于一种"利润 养算力"的良性循环中，通过核心广告业务产生的现金流全速追赶AI浪潮。 未来一周，投资者的注意力将集中在将于周五公布的美国 ...

来源：环球市场播报 与此同时，人工智能（AI）板块前景疑虑浮现，华尔街目光聚焦英伟达。据知情人士透露，英伟达计 划向OpenAI注资1000亿美元的方案已陷入停滞，芯片制造商高管对该交易提出质疑。然而，英伟达 CEO黄仁勋周六向记者表示："我们将投入巨资。我相信OpenAI，他们的工作令人惊叹，是当今最具影 响力的公司之一。"尽管未透露具体金额，但他强调投资规模"巨大"。 本周将迎来财报与就业数据密集发布的关键周。超100家标普500成分股公司，包括亚马逊、Alphabet和 迪士尼等巨头，将陆续公布财报。尽管本财报季整体表现亮眼，但微软等企业财报发布后股价大幅下跌 的案例，也令市场保持警惕。德意志银行策略师指出，当前企业盈利增长势头有望创下四年以来最高水 平，为市场提供一定支撑。 此外，华尔街正密切关注周五早间公布的美国1月非农就业报告。道琼斯调查的经济学家预计，1月新增 就业岗位5.5万个，数据表现将直接影响市场对美联储货币政策的预期。此前，美股已因特朗普提名凯 文·沃什出任美联储主席而承压，主要指数集体走低。若提名获确认，沃什将于今年晚些时候接替杰罗 姆·鲍威尔执掌美联储，政策走向不确定性增加。 周一早 ...

Core Insights - The article compares two technology-focused ETFs, the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) and the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF (FTEC), highlighting their differences in diversification, holdings, and risk [1][2]. Cost and Size - Both XLK and FTEC have an identical expense ratio of 0.08% and XLK has a significantly larger asset under management (AUM) of $92 billion compared to FTEC's $17 billion [3]. - XLK offers a slightly higher dividend yield of 0.54% versus FTEC's 0.43% [3]. Performance and Risk Comparison - Over the past five years, XLK experienced a maximum drawdown of -33.56%, while FTEC had a slightly larger drawdown of -34.95% [4]. - An investment of $1,000 would have grown to $2,129 in XLK and $2,210 in FTEC over the same period [4]. Portfolio Composition - FTEC tracks the MSCI USA IMI Information Technology 25/50 Index and holds 289 stocks, with its top three positions (Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple) comprising over 44% of its assets [5]. - XLK has only 70 holdings, with its top three stocks making up just under 40% of the fund [6]. Diversification and Holdings - FTEC is more diversified with over four times as many holdings as XLK, but it has a heavier concentration in its top three holdings [8]. - The difference in concentration could lead to varying total returns based on the performance of Nvidia, Microsoft, or Apple [9]. Liquidity Considerations - XLK's larger AUM provides greater liquidity, allowing for larger transactions without significant price swings, which may be a consideration for investors [10].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are expressing concerns regarding Microsoft's AI-driven growth strategy, leading to a significant drop in its stock price by over 7% following the release of its fiscal 2026 second-quarter earnings [1] Group 1: Azure Performance - Revenue for Microsoft's Azure and other cloud services increased by 39% in the quarter ending December 31, slightly below Wall Street's expectations [2] - CFO Amy Hood indicated that Azure's growth could have exceeded 40% if all available GPUs had been allocated to cloud services instead of being used for first-party applications like Microsoft 365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot [3] Group 2: Strategic Decisions - CEO Satya Nadella emphasized a long-term strategy by allocating supply-constrained chips to areas that enhance customer lifetime value, although this approach has not resonated well with investors [4] Group 3: OpenAI Concerns - Microsoft's remaining performance obligations reached $625 billion by December 31, with 45% linked to OpenAI's expansion initiatives, raising concerns about the sustainability of this investment given OpenAI's projected losses of $14 billion in 2026 [5] - The increasing cash burn of OpenAI has led investors to question whether Microsoft will realize its expected future revenue, especially if OpenAI struggles to meet its capital spending needs [6]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft experienced its largest single-day dollar loss in history, with a decline of $357 billion in market value despite reporting strong earnings for Q2 of fiscal 2026, raising questions about investor confidence and future growth prospects [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter increased by 17% to $81.3 billion, with adjusted earnings reaching $4.14 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.91 [1]. - Operating margin stood at 47.1%, and Microsoft Cloud revenue exceeded $50 billion for the first time [1]. Market Reaction - Microsoft shares fell by as much as 12% during intraday trading, closing down 10% at $433.50, marking the seventh-largest percentage decline since the company went public in 1986 [1]. - The stock's performance post-earnings report was notably stagnant, indicating persistent investor concerns [1]. Growth Concerns - Azure cloud platform growth was reported at 38% in constant currency, but fell short of Wall Street's whisper number of 39.4%, contributing to market unease [1]. - Capital expenditures surged to $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, highlighting the competitive pressures in the AI and cloud sectors [1]. AI Business Insights - Microsoft 365 Copilot, the AI assistant integrated into Office apps, has 15 million paid users, which is only about 3% of the 450 million paid seats in Microsoft 365 [1]. - Concerns were raised regarding 45% of Microsoft's $625 billion in remaining performance obligations being tied to OpenAI, with $281 billion of that backlog committed to a single customer [1]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts expressed skepticism about Microsoft's ability to prove the value of its investments in AI, despite a 16% increase in Microsoft 365 commercial revenue [1]. - Some analysts maintained a positive outlook, with Morningstar keeping a $600 fair value estimate and noting that demand for AI and cloud services continues to outpace supply [1]. - Other analysts, like Wedbush, acknowledged the friction between long-term investments and short-term investor expectations, suggesting that 2026 could be a pivotal year for Microsoft [1].

Group 1: Microsoft - Microsoft has averaged annual returns of 25% over the past decade and continues to grow, with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue up 18% year over year and net income rising 12% [2] - The company has a market cap of $3.2 trillion, with a current stock price of $429.91 and a forward P/E ratio of 29, slightly below its five-year average of 30 [3][4] - Microsoft is heavily investing in artificial intelligence, with CEO Satya Nadella emphasizing the importance of AI and cloud services for future growth [4] - The company has a gross margin of 68.59% and a dividend yield of 0.79%, with dividends increasing from $2.09 per share in 2020 to $3.40 recently [4] Group 2: Netflix - Netflix has averaged annual gains of 24% over the past decade, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $12 billion, up nearly 18% year over year, and net income increasing by 29% [5] - The company’s advertising revenue has significantly contributed to its growth, with ad revenue growing more than 2.5 times to over $1.5 billion in 2025 [5] - Netflix's current market cap is $353 billion, with a stock price of $83.47 and a forward P/E ratio of 27, which is below its five-year average of 33 [6][7] - Despite a 12% decline in stock price over the past year due to acquisition uncertainties, the stock is considered appealingly valued [7]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's disappointment with Microsoft's earnings is primarily due to Azure's growth not meeting high expectations, despite strong overall performance metrics [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter revenue increased by 17% year over year, with operating margins expanding by approximately 160 basis points to 47% [7] - Earnings per share rose by 21% on a constant-currency basis, excluding around $10 billion of OpenAI-related gains [7] Azure Performance - Azure grew 38% year over year in constant currency, surpassing Microsoft's own guidance but falling short of the anticipated 40% growth [2][9] - Microsoft executives indicated that customer demand for Azure is significantly outpacing supply, particularly for advanced AI GPUs, which is intentionally limiting Azure's growth [9][10] Bookings and Backlog - Microsoft's residual performance obligations (RPO) surged by 110% year over year to $625 billion, indicating strong future income potential [4] - Even without OpenAI-related contracts, RPO increased by 28%, reflecting broad-based commercial demand [5] Market Sentiment and Valuation - Morgan Stanley argues that the market is mispricing Microsoft's durability, with a valuation of approximately 21x CY27 earnings estimates [14] - The firm maintains an overweight rating and a price target of $650, suggesting that once investors understand Azure's supply issues, sentiment will improve [15] Microsoft 365 Copilot Adoption - Microsoft reported 15 million paying Microsoft 365 Copilot seats, with over 450 million business users, indicating significant potential for future growth [11] - Daily active users of Copilot have increased tenfold year over year, with 80% of CIOs expecting to use Copilot within the next 12 months [19]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is highlighted as one of the most profitable stocks on NASDAQ, with RBC Capital maintaining an Outperform rating and a price target of $640 [1]. Financial Performance - Recent quarterly results showed that Microsoft exceeded revenue, earnings, and operating margin estimates, although they did not surpass elevated expectations [2]. - Analysts from RBC Capital noted strong execution and improving visibility, emphasizing the company's AI and cloud growth potential [3]. Analyst Recommendations - Microsoft is considered a top large-cap pick by RBC Capital, with a consensus rating of Strong Buy from 34 analysts and a one-year average price target of $603.95, indicating a 40% upside from the close on January 30 [3]. Strategic Investments - Microsoft is reportedly in discussions to invest approximately $10 billion in OpenAI, reflecting its ongoing commitment to AI technologies [4]. Product and Service Overview - Microsoft is recognized for its diverse range of products and services, including Windows, Azure, Office, LinkedIn, and Xbox, which contribute to its strong market position [4].

Investment in AI Data Centers - Digital Connexion plans to invest $11 billion by 2030 to develop a 1-gigawatt AI-focused data center campus in Andhra Pradesh, highlighting significant interest from both domestic and global investors in AI infrastructure [1] - Google announced a $15 billion investment to build an AI hub and expand data-center infrastructure in India, following a previous $10 billion commitment in 2020 [2] - Microsoft plans to invest $17.5 billion by 2029 to expand its AI and cloud footprint in India [2] - Amazon will invest an additional $35 billion in India by 2030, raising its total planned commitment to approximately $75 billion [2] Strategic Importance of Data Centers - The U.S. cloud giants are racing to add data-center capacity globally, with India emerging as an attractive location due to its engineering talent and demand for cloud services [3] - India's finance minister proposed a tax holiday on revenues from cloud services sold outside India if run from local data centers, aiming to attract foreign investment [4][5] - The budget also includes a 15% cost-plus safe harbor for Indian data-center operators providing services to foreign entities [4] Challenges and Projections - Scaling up data center capacity in India faces challenges such as power shortages, high electricity costs, and water scarcity, which could impact construction and operating costs [6] - India's data-center power capacity is projected to exceed 2 gigawatts by 2026 and could expand to over 8 gigawatts by 2030, driven by capital investments exceeding $30 billion [8] Broader Economic Initiatives - The Indian government is increasing its focus on electronics and semiconductor manufacturing, launching a second phase of the India Semiconductor Mission to enhance domestic production capabilities [10] - The budget raised the outlay for the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme to ₹400 billion (around $4.36 billion) to attract global suppliers and reduce reliance on imports [11][12] - Measures to boost cross-border e-commerce include removing the ₹1 million (around $11,000) value cap per consignment on courier exports, benefiting small manufacturers and startups [15] Long-term Vision - The latest measures emphasize India's ambition to become a long-term hub for global technology infrastructure, focusing on cloud computing, electronics manufacturing, and critical minerals [16]