股市对科技七巨头的热情正在降温 市场依旧对科技七巨头保持乐观的一个因素是，他们的估值水平相对适中。科技七巨头指数基于未来12 个月预期盈利的市盈率为29倍，远低于本十年前期的40多倍。目前，标普500指数的预期市盈率为22 倍，纳斯达克100指数为25倍。(作者/箫雨) 自2022年美联储开始加息以来，美国"科技七巨头"(Magnificent 7)首次出现大多数公司表现跑输标普 500 指数的情况。尽管2025年科技七巨头指数上涨25%，跑赢标普500指数的16%涨幅，但这主要是由于谷 歌母公司Alphabet、英伟达的巨大涨幅带动了整体指数上涨。 "市场并非一刀切。如果你只是单纯买入整个组合，表现不佳的股票可能会抵消表现出色股票的收 益。"Natixis投资管理解决方案公司首席投资组合策略师杰克·亚纳西维奇(Jack Janasiewicz)指出，该公 司管理着1.4万亿美元资产。 过去三年，科技巨头引领了美国牛市。自2022年10月牛市行情启动以来，仅英伟达、Alphabet、微软和 苹果四家公司就贡献了标普500超过三分之一的涨幅。然而，随着市场对标普500指数其他成分股的兴趣 升温，投资者对这些科技 ...

EQUITY RESEARCH | January 11, 2026 | 5:39PM EST TECHNOLOGY: SOFTWARE Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): Assume at Buy into Years 50 and Beyond: Still one of the best secular growth stories in Technology +1(212)357-2790 callie.valenti@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Selina Zhang +1(212)357-9979 selina.zhang@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC We assume coverage on Microsoft with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $655 (up from $630 prior; 37% upside). Microsoft turned 50 in 2025 and the stock has been publicly liste ...

EQUITY RESEARCH | January 11, 2026 | 5:39PM EST Assuming Software Sector Coverage into the Decade of Agentic Workflow: Buy MSFT, ORCL & NOW; Sell ADBE & DDOG AMERICAS TECHNOLOGY: SOFTWARE We assume coverage of the Software Sector and 12 additional stocks. We are constructive on AI adoption being a positive tailwind to the Software TAM over the next 5-10 years. Datapoints in any given year may be uneven as the ecosystem matures and as competition evolves; nonetheless, we expect signals on uptake will be more ...

智通财经APP获悉，近年来，许多投资者都奉行一套简单的策略来跑赢市场：重仓美国大型科技股。 "当下的市场早已不是'一招鲜吃遍天'的行情，"管理着1.4万亿美元资产的Natixis Investment Managers Solutions首席投资组合策略师Jack Janasiewicz表示，"如果只是无脑买入整个巨头组合，个股的亏损很 可能会抵消掉其他股票的收益。" 这轮持续三年的牛市由科技巨头引领，自2022年10月牛市开始以来，仅英伟达、谷歌、微软(MSFT.US) 和苹果(AAPL.US)四家公司就贡献了标普500指数涨幅的三分之一以上。但随着市场资金开始流向标普 500指数的其他成分股，投资者对科技巨头的热情正在降温。 由于大型科技公司盈利增速放缓，投资者不再满足于"AI带来暴富"的空头支票，而是期待真金白银的回 报。汇编数据显示，七巨头2026年的盈利增幅预计约为18%，为2022年以来最慢增速，与标普500指数 其他493家成分股13%的预期增幅相比，优势已十分微弱。 "我们已经看到企业盈利增长的范围正在扩大，且这一趋势将持续下去，"瑞银全球财富管理美国股票主 管David Lefkowitz指 ...

分组1: Berkshire Hathaway - Berkshire Hathaway has a strong balance sheet and its core insurance business remains stable despite challenges from California wildfires [1] - Greg Abel took over leadership on January 1, managing $670 billion in investable assets and numerous subsidiaries [2] - The stock price has stagnated since Buffett's retirement announcement, but the company continues to generate strong cash flow and grow its assets [8] 分组2: Gates Foundation - The Gates Foundation receives annual donations from Warren Buffett, including a recent donation of 9.4 million Class B shares of Berkshire Hathaway [4] - The foundation's trust holds a portfolio worth approximately $38 billion, with 59% invested in three major companies [5] - Bill Gates aims to give away nearly all his wealth through the foundation over the next 20 years [6][7] 分组3: WM (Waste Management) - WM operates a solid waste collection and disposal business with a competitive moat due to regulatory barriers for new landfills [10] - The company has shown strong revenue growth and improved operating margins, even amidst challenges in the recycling market [11] - WM trades at an attractive valuation with an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of less than 14, making it a solid investment option [12] 分组4: Canadian National Railway - Canadian National Railway has a wide competitive moat and geographic advantages, operating tracks from coast to coast in Canada and into the U.S. [13][14] - The company has managed to offset declines in certain freight categories with increases in others, although overall volume growth has been modest [15] - With an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of less than 12, Canadian National Railway is considered a good long-term value stock [18]

Group 1 - Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ:FISV) announced a strategic collaboration with Microsoft to enhance innovation by integrating AI into its development platforms and empowering its global workforce with AI tools [1][2] - The collaboration aims to boost internal productivity and deliver AI-driven solutions that create greater value for clients, including financial institutions, businesses, and consumers [1] - Fiserv is also increasing the use of Microsoft Foundry, an Azure-powered AI platform, to build, customize, deploy, and manage AI applications, thereby bringing intelligent capabilities to market [3] Group 2 - The deployment of Microsoft 365 Copilot throughout Fiserv's global workforce will provide employees with advanced AI tools to improve productivity, accelerate decision-making, and enhance work quality [2] - Fiserv is recognized as a global leader in payments and financial technology, positioning itself to leverage AI advancements for competitive advantage [3]

After two years of strong inflows, AI-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are entering a tougher phase. Broad exposure that once amplified gains is now leaving investors concentrated in a small group of dominant tech stocks.Jack Fu, chief executive of Draco Evolution, says many AI ETFs are still built for excitement, not durability. “A lot of investors think they're buying diversified AI exposure,” Fu told Benzinga. But in many cases, they’re buying the same few big tech stocks in different wrappers, he ex ...

Core Insights - The current economy is not as robust as it appears, with stock market gains concentrated among a few companies, leading to a divergence in performance [1][3][5] - The average American is experiencing a decline in wealth due to rising prices from inflation and a slowing job market influenced by artificial intelligence [1][2] Company Performance - The "Magnificent Seven" companies—Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—reported a 14.9% earnings growth in Q3 2025, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 average [3][4] - In contrast, the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 only achieved a 6.7% earnings growth, indicating a slowdown in broader market performance [4][5] Market Dynamics - The Magnificent Seven account for approximately 33% of the total value of the S&P 500, raising concerns about market stability if any of these companies underperform [6] - J.P. Morgan forecasts a 20% earnings per share (EPS) growth for the Magnificent Seven in 2026, compared to the S&P 500's projected EPS growth of 13% to 15% [6] Risk Assessment - There are concerns about a potential stock market bubble, as the market's performance is heavily reliant on a small number of high-valuation companies [7]

Core Insights - Bill Gates has transitioned from Microsoft to focus on philanthropy through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, investing billions annually in various projects [1] Group 1: Bill Gates' Investment in Farmland - Bill Gates is the largest private farmland owner in the U.S., owning over 250,000 acres, which constitutes approximately 1/4000 of all U.S. farmland [2][3] - The investment in farmland is seen as a hedge against inflation, with U.S. farmland values reaching a record $4,350 per acre, reflecting a 4.3% year-over-year increase [6] - Despite challenges such as tariff restrictions and the trade war with China, which impacted farmers' market access, farmland values have continued to rise [4][6] Group 2: Challenges in Farmland Investment - Investing in farmland requires significant capital, and financing can be difficult to obtain, especially for those without farming expertise [7]

Key TakeawaysThe era of guaranteed success from simply "loading up" on the Magnificent 7 tech stocks is over, making selective stock picking critical for investors seeking to outperform the market.Indonesia and Malaysia have become the first nations to ban Elon Musk's Grok AI system due to its generation of sexual content, highlighting growing concerns over AI content moderation and regulation.The ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro triggered an outsized rally in the country's bonds, though the natio ...