金融期货早评 宏观：美政府再次面临部分停摆 【市场资讯】1）英国首相斯塔默：在华会谈取得了实质性成果。2）美国财政部发布报告： 未将任何经济体列入汇率操纵名单。3）美参议院未能推进拨款法案，联邦政府再次面临 "停摆"危机，国土安全部的拨款或另起法案。4）美国总统特朗普称，明天上午将宣布美联 储主席人选。 1. 微软 AI 支出引爆忧虑，股价暴跌 10%，拖累美股大盘。贵金属巨震。 2. 特朗普：将于明早（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【策略建议】短期内，建议出口企业可在 7.01 附近，择机逢高分批锁定远期结汇，以规避 汇率回落可能导致的收益缩水风险；进口企业则可在 6.93 关口附近采取滚动购汇的策略。 【重要资讯】1）美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门。 2）美国总统特朗普：将于明天早上（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【风险提示】海外经济数据超预期、特朗普政策超预期 重要声明：以上内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 股指：短期预计延续调整 【市场回顾】 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 关键过渡阶段。海外方面，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft experienced a significant stock sell-off, resulting in a market cap loss of $357 billion, marking the second-largest single-day market cap loss in U.S. history [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft's stock price plummeted by 10%, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [1]. - The company's market cap loss exceeded the total market cap of over 90% of the S&P 500 index members [1]. - This event follows a historical precedent where Nvidia faced a $593 billion market cap loss in January 2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Results and AI Investment - Microsoft's recent earnings report revealed record AI spending, with capital expenditures increasing by 66% to $37.5 billion [3]. - The growth rate of the Azure cloud computing business has slowed compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Microsoft faces capacity constraints in AI demand, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaling $625 billion, of which approximately 45% is linked to its partnership with OpenAI [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Commentary - There is growing skepticism among investors regarding the return on investment (ROI) from Microsoft's substantial AI expenditures [3]. - Analysts suggest that Microsoft's stock may need to be revalued to align with its historical fair value due to the perceived lack of strong ROI from AI investments [3].

权益类与FOF基金齐发力 新发基金规模突破千亿元 今年以来，新基金发行速度加快，总规模已超千亿元。权益类基金与FOF产品频现爆款，多只基金发行 规模超30亿元，部分基金一日售罄。截至1月29日，年内新成立110只基金，发行规模合计1105.4亿元， 其中85只为权益类基金，合计768.1亿元。广发研究智选混合基金等多只基金发行规模居前。FOF产品 也保持高热度，2025年发行规模已突破800亿元。此外，市场上仍有逾百只基金正在或即将发行，权益 类基金和FOF产品成为主力。业内人士对A股市场持乐观态度，重点关注科技成长行业。(上海证券报) 科创板超260份业绩预告出炉 订单增长彰显发展潜力 随着上市公司2025年业绩预告进入密集披露期，多家科创板企业年度业绩"答卷"也提前揭晓。数据显 示，截至1月29日19时30分，超260家科创板公司公布2025年业绩预告，从披露情况来看，报喜公司（包 括预增、扭亏、略增）数量达105家，占比约四成，还有超50家公司预计同比减亏。业内人士认为，科 创板紧密连接国家科技创新战略，聚焦人工智能、生物医药等前沿领域，其制度创新吸引优质企业上 市，并不断吸引"耐心资本"入场。目前随着 ...

"Microsoft disappointed and there are some ‌genuine concerns that AI investments will eat the software companies' lunches," said John Praveen, managing director & Co-CIO, Paleo Leon in Princeton, New Jersey. Investors are trying to "reduce exposure to stocks and play it safe" against a backdrop of broader uncertainties including who the Federal Reserve's next chair will be and how many interest rate cuts it will make, according to Praveen who also cited political uncertainties around Washington's stance in ...

中证网讯①据国投瑞银基金公告称，国投白银LOF将于1月30日开市起停牌至收市。此外，原油LOF易 方达、嘉实原油LOF等将自1月30日开市起停牌一小时。 ②当地时间1月29日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，大型科技股多数上涨。美国科技巨头微软股价重 挫，跌近10%。 ③商品方面，国际金银现货价格一度重挫，随后快速回升，期现货价格走势分化。(张舒琳) ...

Core Insights - Microsoft reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $81.3 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, with operating income up 21% and adjusted EPS at $4.14, reflecting a 24% increase [1] - Cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, reaching $51.5 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year [1] - The company’s commercial order volume grew by 230% year-over-year, driven by significant long-term commitments from clients like OpenAI [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue: $81.3 billion, up 17% YoY (15% at constant currency) [1] - Operating income: up 21% YoY (19% at constant currency) [1] - Adjusted EPS: $4.14, up 24% YoY (21% at constant currency) [1] - Cloud revenue: $51.5 billion, up 26% YoY (24% at constant currency) [1] - Gross margin: 67% [1] Business Outlook - Q3 revenue forecast: $80.65 billion to $81.75 billion, a 15%-17% YoY increase [1] - Expected cost of revenue: $26.65 billion to $26.85 billion, a 22% YoY increase [1] - Anticipated operating expenses: $17.8 billion to $17.9 billion, a 10%-11% YoY increase [1] - Capital expenditures expected to decrease quarter-over-quarter due to normal fluctuations in cloud infrastructure construction [1] Strategic Focus - The company’s strategy emphasizes three layers of technology stack: cloud and token factory, agent platform, and superior agent experience [2] - The impact of AI on GDP and Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth is just beginning [2] - The agent platform is seen as the next generation of application platforms, requiring various services for deployment and management [2] Capital Expenditure and ROI - CapEx growth is driven by long-term demand, with investments aimed at supporting applications like M365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot [3] - Azure's growth guidance is linked to capacity allocation rather than immediate revenue [3] - The average contract duration for RPO has increased from 2 years to 2.5 years, indicating a more stable revenue outlook [3] OpenAI Partnership - Approximately 45% of the unfulfilled orders (RPO) are related to OpenAI, with the remaining 55% reflecting a diverse business portfolio [4][5] - The partnership with OpenAI is viewed positively, contributing to Microsoft's leadership in technology and application innovation [5] Capacity Expansion - The company is focused on increasing capacity globally, with significant projects in Atlanta and Wisconsin [6] - Long-term infrastructure development is prioritized to ensure efficient deployment of GPU and CPU resources [6] Chip Development - The Maia 200 accelerator shows significant performance improvements, enhancing Microsoft's competitive edge in AI workloads [6] - Continuous innovation in chip design and system optimization is crucial for maintaining cost advantages [7] Client Transformation - Clients adopting Microsoft’s AI technology stack are experiencing transformative benefits, with potential for increased spending as they become "frontier firms" [8] - The deployment of agents is changing how companies coordinate work, leading to greater impact [8] Cloud Migration Trends - Ongoing cloud migration is evident, with services like SQL Server on Azure showing growth [9] - The need for a balanced approach between commercial cloud and AI cloud is emphasized as clients migrate workloads [9]

【环球网财经综合报道】日前，全球最大主权财富基金——挪威政府全球养老基金公布数据，2025年投资收益 达到2.36万亿挪威克朗，约合2465亿美元；年投资回报率为15.1%。其中，股票投资表现尤为突出，回报率达 19.3%，大型科技股是该基金业绩的核心驱动力，其前五大持仓包括英伟达、苹果、微软、Alphabet和亚马逊。 半岛电视台对此发文称，该基金投资的一半以上在美国，其中大部分在股票和债券中，最大的10项投资占股票 投资组合的20%。基金CEO尼科莱·延森分析称："特别是在原材料行业，我们看到了强劲的表现。你们看到了 金属，如黄金、白银、铜等价格的上涨，这对业绩有很大帮助。金融行业也表现强劲，而房地产行业则表现最 差。" 报道也提到，到2025年下半年，挪威主权基金已将其在美国最大科技公司的股份降低，包括对芯片巨头英特尔 的投资份额从6月到年底从1.32%降至1.26%，对微软的投资份额从1.35%降至1.26% 该基金还预计，如果全球经济因地缘政治环境恶化，其投资组合可能会总体下降37%，这将超过人工智能场景 35%的预期影响。 ...

: US stocks ended Thursday’s session mixed as investors digested disappointing earnings from Microsoft alongside the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, while weakness across software stocks weighed heavily on tech-heavy indexes.US stock market today: S&P 500 dips, Nasdaq slides while Dow Jones posts modest gainsThe S&P 500 slipped 0.13% to close at 6,969.01, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.72% to 23,685.12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, rising 55.96 points, or 0.11%, to f ...

【导读】黄金、白银史诗级巨震，黄金单日狂震500美元，盘中大跳水，收盘大逆转；原油价格走高 美东时间1月29日（周四），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，科技股下挫拖累纳指走低，微软财报引得市 场重新审视与人工智能相关的巨额支出。贵金属价格大幅波动，布伦特原油期货自去年7月份以来首次 收于每桶70美元上方。 美股三大股指走势震荡 指数方面，道指跌55.96点，跌幅为0.11%，报49071.56点；纳指跌172.33点，跌幅为0.72%，报23685.12 点；标普500指数跌9.02点，跌幅为0.13%，报6969.01点。 美联储在最新利率决议中宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间3.50%～3.75%不变，中止此前连续三次降 息。声明上调对经济活动评估，称其"稳健"扩张，指出失业率有企稳迹象，但通胀"略显偏高"。 市场随即下调降息预期：投资者将4月再次降息的概率降至26%，并认为6月是下一次可能的窗口。 富国银行投资研究所全球股票及实物资产主管Sameer Samana表示："美联储声明符合预期，市场常因意 外波动。期待盈利和经济数据推动下一波上涨，不过对2026年中期选举相关波动也不会意外。" 特朗普表示，他将在下周 ...

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 昨夜今晨 【字节跳动、阿里巴巴将于春节前后推出新的人工智能模型】 中国科技巨头字节跳动与阿里巴巴集团正准备在即将到来的农历新年期间推出新一代人工智能模型，这一举动 标志着双方在争夺中国AI领先地位及未来云市场主导权的战役中进入白热化阶段。 据知情人士向媒体透露，字节跳动计划于下月发布三款新模型，涵盖大语言模型、图像生成及视频生成领域， 旨在利用其快速增长的云服务业务挑战阿里巴巴的市场地位。这一发布时间点选在2月中旬的春节假期，意在 利用假期这一关键的用户流量窗口。 阿里巴巴亦不甘示弱，据知情人士向媒体称，其将在同一时期推出旗舰模型Qwen 3.5，该模型据称具备强大的 数学和编码能力。此外，阿里计划对其面向消费者的Qwen AI应用进行大规模假日营销推广，意图正面挑战目 前用户量最大的豆包聊天机器人。此次交锋正值DeepSeek等竞争对手也计划发布新模型的时刻，凸显了中国 科技企业争夺用户注意力和构建AI超级应用的紧迫性。 这场竞争不仅关乎谁能打造出中国最受欢迎的AI消费级应用，更将决定未来数年的中国AI云市场的格局归 属 ...