Sentiment toward Microsoft's stock MSFT was already bleak heading into its latest earnings report, and it only got worse despite what Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, called "reasonably good†numbers. Microsoft shares slid 10% on Thursday to log their worst day in more than 12 years. Microsoft's stock hasn't been this cheap in almost three years. But what, exactly, investors should do about that is increasingly a topic of Wall Street debate. ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is heavily reliant on OpenAI, facing challenges in selling its own AI products, which raises concerns about its future growth potential [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Dependencies - Microsoft's remaining performance obligation is $625 billion, with $281 billion tied to contracts with OpenAI, indicating a significant dependency on a single partner [2]. - The company spent $37.5 billion on capital expenditures in the last quarter, with two-thirds allocated to short-lived assets like GPUs and CPUs, raising questions about the sustainability of this investment strategy [3]. - Microsoft's free cash flow has declined due to soaring capital expenditures, leading to skepticism among investors regarding the returns on these investments [10]. Group 2: AI Product Adoption - Microsoft 365 Copilot, integrated into productivity apps, has only 15 million paid seats out of 450 million total, resulting in a penetration rate of just over 3%, suggesting weak commercial adoption [6]. - GitHub Copilot has 4.7 million paid subscribers, reflecting a 75% year-over-year increase, but still represents a small fraction of GitHub's 150 million users, indicating limited market penetration [7]. - The difficulties Microsoft faces in getting customers to pay for AI products may signal broader challenges for the AI industry, as spending on AI infrastructure may be outpacing real-world adoption [8]. Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - Microsoft stock trades at approximately 25 times the average analyst estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings, with the valuation heavily dependent on the outcomes of its deals with OpenAI [11]. - Despite challenges in the AI sector, Microsoft maintains strong software franchises and a dominant position in the PC market with Windows and Office productivity apps [9].

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] AI 革命和泡沫分析框架（一）：AI 的 1998—— 科网泡沫再审视 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本文对科网泡沫复盘，希望以史为鉴，对当下 AI 产业演进过程提出一些思考。衡量泡沫是否存 在主要有八大维度，可以分为三个层面。宏观：叙事催化剂和杠杆水平；产业：故事性、应用 场景、未来竞争格局、商业模式；市场：经验不足的投资者、纯粹可投资标的。从宏观环境整 体来讲，美国当前的经济环境不及科网泡沫时期，流动性相比当时更好。产业端来讲，商业模 式能否闭环，企业能否产生最终盈利是市场最为关注的问题。而市场端来看，当前估值水平和 市场构成相比科网泡沫时期更优。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title AI 革命和泡沫分析框架（一 2] ）：AI 的 1998—— 科网泡沫 ...

At Mint Horizon Kolkata, a discussion on global investing opened with an idea that felt counter-intuitive at first, but instantly familiar.“All of you already invest overseas,” said Neil Borate, Editor-in-Chief at thefynprint. “In fact, us Indians have been doing it for thousands of years.”The example he pointed to was gold. India does not produce gold, yet Indian households have imported it for centuries, steadily accumulating it as a store of value. According to Borate, global investing is not a recent fi ...

Key TakeawaysCryptocurrency markets experienced a notable downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling -1.64% to $82,950.00 and other major altcoins also seeing significant declines on Saturday.European corporate finance saw substantial activity, as French chemicals company KEM ONE SASU secured €30 million ($35.6 million) in fresh debt, and a unit of INEOS received €500 million ($593 million) in new equity and credit lines.Geopolitical tensions remain high, with a new Israeli airstrike on Gaza City and Iran's army ...

以下文章来源于快鲤鱼 ，作者快鲤鱼 快鲤鱼 . 创业邦旗下AGI矩阵号，寻找海内外创新性的AGI高成长公司，记录AGI商业领袖的成长轨迹。 全球AI产业周报 为你精选过去一周（1.14-1.30）最值得关注的AI新闻和 国内外热门AI投融资事件 ，帮助大家及时 了解全球AI市场动向。 本周人工智能热点资讯 开源项目C lawdbot爆火，开发者爆料开发内幕 ：100%AI开发 1月27日消息，近日，个人AI助手ClawdBot掀起讨论热潮。开源项目Clawdbot可在Mac mini上运 行，兼具本地AI智能体和聊天网关双重身份，可本地运行并接入WhatsApp、Telegram、GitHub 等工具，已获超3万GitHub星标。Clawdbot能记住两周前的对话，还会主动推送邮件、日程提 醒，并可直接操控电脑执行任务。其幕后开发者Peter Steinberger称，该项目几乎是100%用AI写 出来的，并且认为国产大模型MiniMax 2.1是目前最"Agentic"的一个大模型。Steinberger目前就 在自己的Mac Studio上使用MiniMax 2.1本地跑Clawdbot。 长江证券表示， ...

证券研究报告 微软(Microsoft) (MSFT US) Copilot 加速商业化，看好长期趋势 | 华泰研究 | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 30 日│美国 | 计算机应用 | 目标价(美元): | 539.22 | 公司公布 FY26Q2（CY25Q4）业绩：营收 813 亿美元（yoy+17%），超 VA（Visible Alpha）一致预期 1.20%，营业利润 383 亿美元（yoy+21%）， 超 VA 一致预期 4.54%，净利润 385 亿美元（yoy+60%），超 VA 一致预期 33.30%；公司营收超预期主要受生产力及业务流程、智能云板块业务超预 期拉动，看好公司 FY2026 AI 商业化加速兑现，维持"买入"评级。 FY26Q2 M365 Copilot 付费用户超 1500 万，Agent 放量可期 FY26Q2 公司生产力及业务流程业务营收 341 亿美元（yoy+16%），超 VA 一致预期 1.98%，收入超预期主要受 Copilot 产品商业化提速拉动 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Microsoft is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - Microsoft reported a strong overall performance in FY26Q2, with total revenue of $81.3 billion (up 17% YoY), operating profit of $38.3 billion (up 21% YoY), and net profit of $35.4 billion (up 47% YoY) [1][9] - Azure cloud growth is showing signs of marginal slowdown, with guidance for next quarter's capital expenditure expected to decrease sequentially [2][3] - The company is prioritizing resource allocation towards internal AI products like Copilot rather than cloud business, raising concerns about returns [2] - Microsoft cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, with Azure growing 39% YoY, and commercial bookings increasing by 228% [2][6] - The productivity and business processes segment saw revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), driven by M365 Copilot and E5 [7] - Capital expenditures reached a record high of $37.5 billion (up 66% YoY), with guidance indicating a sequential decline in FY26Q3 [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $81.3 billion, with a breakdown of $34.1 billion from productivity and business processes (up 16% YoY), $32.9 billion from intelligent cloud (up 29% YoY), and $14.3 billion from personal computing (down 3% YoY) [1][10] Business Segments - Intelligent Cloud: Revenue of $32.9 billion (up 29% YoY), with Azure growing 39% YoY, exceeding guidance of 37% [10] - Productivity and Business Processes: Revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), with M365 commercial cloud revenue growing 17% YoY [7] - Personal Computing: Revenue of $14.3 billion (down 3% YoY), with mixed performance across segments [10] Future Outlook - Revenue guidance for the next quarter includes intelligent cloud revenue of $34.1-34.4 billion (up 27%-28% YoY) and productivity and business processes revenue of $34.25-34.55 billion (up 15%-16% YoY) [3] - Operating expenses are expected to be $17.8-17.9 billion, with cost of goods sold projected at $26.65-26.85 billion [3] Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY26-28 have been adjusted to $327.8 billion, $373.9 billion, and $433.2 billion respectively, with net profit estimates revised to $123 billion, $146.5 billion, and $172.1 billion [3]

以下文章来源于星海情报局 ，作者星海老局 星海情报局 . 见证中国科技奔赴星辰大海，专注产业链分析和案例写作，关注AI、互联网、汽车、消费电子、半导 体等前沿科技产业。 本文来自微信公众号： 星海情报局 ，作者：星海老局，原文标题：《"电力克苏鲁"赢得AI竞争？ 中 国发电增量已达美国7倍！》 即使是人类最顶尖的科技，终究也会撞上一堵最古老、也最坚硬的墙：物理定律。 不久前，马斯克在访谈中发出了一针见血的论断："AI发展的制约因素，正在从芯片转向电力供 应。" 这并不是危言耸听，根据国际能源署（IEA）的预测，到2026年，全球电力总消费量将达到29000兆 瓦时的历史新高。 面对即将到来的"电荒"，巨头们纷纷坐不住了。微软重启曾因事故被废弃的三里岛核电站，Meta也 宣布与核电站达成合作，谷歌则联手初创公司自建核反应堆。 2024年9月，微软也宣布了一个震惊业界的消息：它与Constellation Energy达成协议，计划重启三里 岛核电站，并收购未来100%发电量的购电权，期限长达20年。 全球科技巨头，正集体卷入一场"抢电大战"。 科技巨头，卷入"抢电大战" "如果我们无法获得足够的电力，人工智能的 ...

Core Insights - Peter Thiel's recent investment moves indicate a strategic shift in his approach to artificial intelligence (AI) investments, particularly moving away from Nvidia and into Microsoft and Apple [3][8]. Company Analysis - Nvidia has been a leader in the AI revolution, primarily through its graphics processing units (GPUs), which are essential for AI development. The company reported a record revenue of over $130 billion in the last fiscal year, with stock performance increasing significantly over five years [4][10]. - Thiel sold all 537,742 shares of Nvidia, which constituted 40% of his portfolio, indicating a significant shift in his investment strategy [7]. - In contrast, Thiel has increased his positions in Microsoft and Apple, purchasing 49,000 shares of Microsoft and 79,181 shares of Apple, which now make up 34% and 27% of his portfolio, respectively [8]. Industry Context - The AI market is projected to exceed $2 trillion by the start of the next decade, suggesting continued growth opportunities for companies involved in AI, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple [6]. - Nvidia's heavy reliance on AI for growth may present higher risks compared to Microsoft and Apple, which have diversified revenue streams beyond AI. Microsoft has established revenue from software and cloud computing, while Apple has only recently begun integrating AI features [11][12].