Summary of the Americas Thematic Focus List Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: The thematic focus is on various sectors across North America and Latin America, particularly in technology, energy, healthcare, and education. - **Companies Featured**: The focus list includes notable companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Eli Lilly, and Walmart, among others. Key Themes for 2026 1. **Tech Diffusion**: Emphasizes the rapid adoption of AI technologies across various sectors, with significant implications for productivity and competitive dynamics [12][14]. 2. **The Future of Energy**: Focuses on the increasing demand for energy driven by AI infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy sources [12][17]. 3. **The Multipolar World**: Highlights the shift towards localized supply chains and national economic security, impacting multinational corporations [12][13]. 4. **Societal Shifts**: Explores the implications of demographic changes, AI-driven employment disruption, and evolving consumer preferences [12][18]. Americas Thematic Focus List - **List Composition**: The focus list includes 18 high-conviction stock ideas, with a target holding period of 12-18 months [9][20]. - **Key Companies on the List**: - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Positioned as a leader in AI infrastructure, with a projected 32% upside to a price target of $238.18 [23]. - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Expected to capture significant AI spending, with a 42% upside to a price target of $456.66 [23]. - **Eli Lilly (LLY)**: A leader in the GLP-1 market, with a 25% upside to a price target of $1,032.97 [23]. - **Walmart (WMT)**: Leveraging AI for operational efficiency, with a 13% upside to a price target of $119.20 [23]. Methodology and Specifications - **Focus List Size**: 15-20 stocks, with equal weighting upon construction [21]. - **Sector Weights**: No fixed sector weights, aiming for diversification [21][22]. - **Regional Weights**: Targeting 80-85% in the USA and 15-20% in Latin America [28]. Important Insights and Data - **Amazon's Growth**: Amazon's custom silicon strategy has grown 150% sequentially, indicating strong demand for its AI capabilities [29]. - **Eli Lilly's Market Potential**: The global diabesity market is projected to exceed $150 billion by the early 2030s, with significant growth opportunities for Eli Lilly [39]. - **NVIDIA's Dominance**: NVIDIA is positioned to capture a significant share of the projected $3-4 trillion in annual AI infrastructure spending by the end of the decade [53]. - **Walmart's AI Strategy**: Walmart's AI initiatives have led to a 50% automation rate in its supply chain, significantly reducing delivery costs [68]. Conclusion The Americas Thematic Focus List presents a strategic overview of high-conviction investment opportunities across key sectors, driven by transformative themes such as technology diffusion and energy transition. The insights provided highlight the potential for significant growth and the evolving landscape of investment in the Americas.

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk is suing OpenAI and Microsoft for up to $134 billion, claiming he is entitled to recover "improper gains" from their early support, with the case set to go to trial in April [1][3] Group 1: Financial Claims - Musk invested $38 million in OpenAI in 2015, which accounted for 60% of the early seed funding [1] - Financial economist C. Paul Vazan estimates that OpenAI profited between $65.5 billion and $109.4 billion, while Microsoft gained between $13.3 billion and $25.1 billion from Musk's early contributions [1] Group 2: Legal Responses - Musk's chief lawyer, Steven Molo, emphasized that Musk not only provided funding but also shared valuable scaling experience, which has been quantified [3] - OpenAI has dismissed the lawsuit as "not serious" and part of Musk's "harassment litigation," previously labeling it as "baseless" [3] - Microsoft stated there is no evidence to suggest it "aided and abetted" any wrongdoing by OpenAI [3]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, effective from January 19, 2026. The new rates for agricultural and small business re-lending will be 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year terms respectively, while the re-discount rate will be 1.5% and the mortgage supplementary loan rate will be 1.75% [2] Trade Relations - Several EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on goods worth €93 billion imported from the US as a countermeasure against tariffs imposed by the US on eight European countries. If no agreement is reached, retaliatory tariffs will automatically take effect from February 6 [3] AI Industry - Elon Musk predicts that China will dominate AI computing power due to its significant electricity supply advantages, potentially tripling its power generation compared to the US by 2026, which will support high-energy data centers [4][5] - OpenAI plans to test targeted advertising within the ChatGPT application to diversify revenue streams ahead of a potential IPO, targeting free users and a new low-cost subscription model [5] - Anthropic is seeking to raise $25 billion or more, with Sequoia Capital participating in the funding round, aiming for a valuation of $350 billion [7] Automotive Industry - Bosch, the world's largest automotive supplier, is facing significant financial pressure, projecting a profit margin below 2% for 2025, primarily due to restructuring costs of €3.1 billion [19] - Porsche's global sales are expected to decline by 10% in 2025, with a notable 26% drop in the Chinese market, reflecting a nearly 60% decrease from its peak in 2021 [20]

文︱陆弃 1月中旬，马斯克起诉OpenAI及微软，索赔高达千亿美元级别的消息，并未在技术圈激起太多惊讶，却 在更广阔的公共领域引发了一种微妙的不安。这并不只是又一场科技巨头之间的商业纠纷，也不仅是创 始人"反目成仇"的老套戏码。它更像是一道被撕开的裂缝，让人得以窥见人工智能这一时代性技术，在 理想、制度与资本三者之间日益紧张的关系。 微软在其中的角色同样耐人寻味。作为全球最具资源整合能力的科技公司之一，它为OpenAI提供了不 可或缺的算力、资金与市场通道，也在事实上重塑了后者的决策结构。这种"战略合作"并不违法，却让 原本模糊的非营利边界变得更加难以自洽。当技术突破与商业应用高度绑定，所谓"公共利益"的实现路 径，往往只能通过市场间接完成，而不再是组织章程中的道德宣言。 如果说这场诉讼有其时代意义，那么意义并不在于法庭最终会判给马斯克多少赔偿，而在于它迫使人们 重新思考一个被长期回避的问题：在人工智能这样的高风险、高回报领域，是否存在一种稳定的制度设 计，能够同时容纳创新动力、资本回报与公共责任？还是说，这三者之间的张力注定只能通过不断的冲 突来调节？ 从历史经验看，重大技术变革往往伴随着制度滞后。工业革命 ...

综合彭博社、路透社17日报道，美国亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克要求人工智能公司OpenAI和微软公司向其支 付790亿至1340亿美元的赔偿，理由是OpenAI背弃了其非营利初衷并与微软合作，从而对他构成"欺 诈"。 马斯克的律师16日在一份法庭文件中详细列出了索赔诉求。该文件称，马斯克在2015年帮助创立 OpenAI时捐赠了3800万美元种子资金，却遭到"欺诈"，因此他有权获得OpenAI目前5000亿美元估值的 一部分。 OpenAI称该诉讼"毫无根据"，是马斯克发起的"骚扰"行动的一部分。而微软的一位律师表示，没有证据 表明该公司"协助或教唆"了OpenAI。这两家公司16日提交文件，对马斯克的损害赔偿主张提出质疑。 据报道，马斯克于2018年离开OpenAI董事会，于2023年创立了自己的人工智能公司，并在2024年就 OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼将该公司转为营利性企业的计划与其展开法律诉讼。 ...

国内新闻 2025年中国—中亚货物贸易进出口达到1063亿美元 同比增长12% 1月18日，据商务部网站消息，2025年中国—中亚经贸合作取得长足发展。据中国海关统计，全年货物贸易进出口达到1063 亿美元，同比增长12%，增速较上年提高6个百分点。中国—中亚进出口总值历史上首次突破1000亿美元大关，连续5年保持正 增长。中国首次跃居中亚各国第一大贸易伙伴，中亚占中国外贸的比重进一步上升。 工信部：首次将科技型中小企业纳入梯度培育范围 1月17日，工业和信息化部修订发布最新《优质中小企业梯度培育管理办法》。《办法》扩大了培育基础，首次将科技型中 小企业纳入梯度培育范围，未来的优质中小企业将包含科技和创新型中小企业、专精特新中小企业和专精特新"小巨人"企业。 1月17日消息，科技部部长阴和俊在接受采访时表示，科技部将推动京津冀、沪苏浙皖优势互补，凝聚合力，打造科技强国 重要战略支点。 西电团队攻克芯片散热世界难题 据西安电子科技大学官方消息，近日，郝跃院士、张进成教授团队最新研究称，通过将材料间的"岛状"连接转化为原子级 平整的"薄膜"，使芯片的散热效率与综合性能获得了飞跃性提升。基于创新氮化铝薄膜技术，研究 ...

专题：世界经济论坛年会_2026冬季达沃斯 瑞士达沃斯当地时间1月18日消息，2026年冬季达沃斯论坛开幕在即，在主会场门口，"美国之家"吸引 了公众目光。 据悉，该项目由前冰球运动员兼投资人斯特龙巴克牵头，官网自称为"私人组织"，不代表美国政府，但 公开招募赞助。辉瑞、麦肯锡、微软等巨头已出现在赞助名单，据传赞助费高达100万美元，用于场地 运营、活动策划及媒体宣传等成本。私人主办，企业助力，这波操作你怎么看？（新浪财经北美站站长 康路 发自达沃斯） 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：梁斌 SF055 责任编辑：梁斌 SF055 专题：世界经济论坛年会_2026冬季达沃斯 瑞士达沃斯当地时间1月18日消息，2026年冬季达沃斯论坛开幕在即，在主会场门口，"美国之家"吸引 了公众目光。 据悉，该项目由前冰球运动员兼投资人斯特龙巴克牵头，官网自称为"私人组织"，不代表美国政府，但 公开招募赞助。辉瑞、麦肯锡、微软等巨头已出现在赞助名单，据传赞助费高达100万美元，用于场地 运营、活动策划及媒体宣传等成本。 ...

Core Insights - The technology sector is poised for superior growth in 2026, particularly driven by demand for AI services, which is creating a robust environment for tech companies in the AI infrastructure market [1] Group 1: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AMD is a leading chip supplier for consumer PCs and data centers, with revenue growing at an annualized rate of over 20% over the last two years [2] - Analysts project AMD's revenue to reach $34 billion in 2025, with a long-term growth outlook of 35% annually over the next three to five years [3] - AMD's data center revenue reached a record $4.3 billion in Q3, with expectations of over 60% annualized growth in the next five years [5] - The client segment revenue, driven by Ryzen processors, hit a record $2.8 billion in Q3, reflecting a 46% year-over-year increase [6] - AMD's gaming revenue was $1.3 billion last quarter, nearly tripling year-over-year, with long-term growth expected at over 10% annually [7] - AMD's portfolio includes adaptive computing chips, providing a competitive edge in AI solutions for edge computing devices [8] - Analysts expect AMD's earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 45% in the coming years, indicating multiple avenues for chip demand [9] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft has a vast ecosystem of productivity tools and cloud services, generating substantial revenue through subscriptions, including Microsoft 365 with over 400 million paid subscribers [10][13] - The company invested $69 billion in capital expenditures last year, funded by $147 billion in cash from operations, enabling the development of advanced AI chips and cloud software [12] - Microsoft Cloud revenue grew 26% year-over-year, reaching $46 billion, while Azure revenue increased by 40% year-over-year [12][14] - Operating profit grew 24% year-over-year, indicating healthy profitability alongside aggressive investments in AI infrastructure [15] - Analysts expect Microsoft's earnings to grow at a rate of 13% per year, positioning the company as a strong player in an AI-driven economy [15]

近日，马斯克向美国联邦法院提交一份文件，以OpenAI背弃其非营利初衷，与微软合作，对他构成欺诈为由，要求OpenAI和微软向 其支付788亿美元至1345亿美元的赔偿。 马斯克的律师在16日提交的文件中详细说明了这一赔偿请求。该文件援引相关金融经济学家、专家证人的估算称，马斯克在2015年 协助创立OpenAI时，向其捐赠了3800万美元种子资金，却遭到欺诈，因此有权获得OpenAI当前约5000亿美元估值中的一大部分。 本文转自【央视财经】； 马斯克于2018年退出OpenAI董事会，2023年创立了自己的人工智能公司，并在2024年就OpenAI首席执行官阿尔特曼将该公司转为营 利性企业的计划与其展开法律诉讼。OpenAI和微软均否认马斯克的相关指控。OpenAI此前曾警告投资者，随着案件进入审理阶段， 预计马斯克将提出吸引眼球的主张。路透社称，一名微软律师表示，没有证据表明微软公司"协助并教唆"OpenAI。案件庭审预计将 于今年4月启动。 马斯克主张，OpenAI的不当获利介于655亿美元至1094亿美元之间，微软获得的相关收益为133亿美元至251亿美元。因此，如果赔偿 请求获得法院支持，马斯克将 ...

Market Performance - The RAM Smid composite gained 3.58% in 4Q25, outperforming the Russell 2500 Value Total Return index which rose 3.15% [2] - Year to date, the RAM Smid composite gained 13.09% compared to 12.73% for the Russell 2500 Value Total Return index [2] - In 4Q25, both the Russell 2500 Value and Russell 2000 Value outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, indicating a shift in investor focus towards small-cap stocks [3] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy showed strength into year-end, recovering from a 0.6% GDP decline in 1Q25 to 3.8% and 4.3% in 3Q25 and 4Q25 respectively [6] - Consumer spending is expected to remain healthy in 2026, bolstered by various tax benefits and potential stimulus measures [7] - Inflation, as measured by core PCE, was 2.9% in 3Q25, and is anticipated to ease in the second half of 2026 as tariff impacts diminish [8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Job growth has weakened, with non-farm payrolls down 105,000 in October and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% [10] - If job growth remains weak, the Federal Reserve may need to cut rates further, especially if inflation driven by tariffs subsides [11] Small Cap Sector Insights - The small cap value sector is viewed as attractively valued and neglected by investors, presenting potential opportunities as large-cap stocks plateau [12] - A shift of just 1% from the S&P 500 into the Russell 2500 value index could require significant buying, indicating potential for a rapid rotation into small caps [13] Portfolio Highlights - The portfolio added three new positions in 4Q25 and maintained a focus on long-term compounding with modest turnover [14] - Mayville Engineering (MEC) was the top performer in 4Q25, rising 34.8%, while Lakeland Industries (LAKE) was the weakest performer, declining 45.31% [16][17] - Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) is transitioning to a software-as-a-service model, with strong balance sheet metrics and significant free cash flow [19][20] Valuation and Future Projections - DFIN shares are considered attractively valued, trading at 10.5x 2026 EPS and 5.6x EBITDA estimates, significantly below peers [23] - A conservative price target of $66 for DFIN implies a 41.4% upside from year-end closing, with potential for further appreciation as the company stabilizes its revenue model [24] - The small and smid cap sector may benefit from moderate GDP growth, easing inflation, and potential Fed rate cuts in 2026 [26]