12 February 2026 | 4:03PM EST Equity Research Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Microsoft is down ~15% since its 1/28 report, primarily for two reasons: 1) upward revisions to capex without upward revisions to Azure, resurfacing questions on ROI and Azure's competitive positioning relative to peers; and 2) ongoing debate on whether the knowledge worker applications business (Office 365) is disintermediated with new AI competition, such as Claude Cowork. We focus our analysis here on the first concern: capex ROI. Micro ...

大摩闭门会：软件行业的未来何在？20260212 2026-02-12 摘要 生成式 AI 冲击导致软件行业估值倍数回落 33%，降至 2016 年来最低， 但基本面未显著恶化，主要担忧源于 AI 创新加速带来的不确定性，推高 折现率。 Palantir 第四季度增速提升至 70%，营业利润率达 57%，预计明年增 速超 60%，得益于其数据本体技术（ontology）和强大的工程部署能 力，赢得工业、油气等行业客户。 数据本体技术对理解数据关系至关重要，需要深厚领域知识和定制化服 务，Palantir 在该领域处于领先地位，Snowflake 和 Salesforce 等也 在探索。 Atlassian 自由现金流倍数约为 14 倍，估值较低，但股价受市场风险偏 好影响，需关注其长期战略执行力和竞争优势。 "AI 即软件"观点认为 AI 是软件的演进性变革，大语言模型是软件能力 的重大突破，本质上仍是自动化工作流程的软件。 现有软件厂商在竞争中作用广泛，因其维护、安全保障等长期成本优势， 且能快速追随 AI 技术，整合到现有工作流程中。 软件行业企业价值/销售额倍数已接近 2014-2016 年水平，需关注 ...

智通财经APP获悉，投资者们对人工智能(AI)颠覆性的担忧情绪持续发酵，导致上周五触底修复式反弹 后的软件股在本周再次经历大规模抛售，来自华尔街知名投资机构Bessemer Venture Partners的合伙人 Byron Deeter 认为，当前全球股票市场软件股，尤其是美股软件股经历的剧烈抛售动荡为投资者们提供 了十分难得的"逢低买入"机遇，并宣称软件与SaaS相关板块"绝对处于严重超卖状态"。尽管本周再度出 现了急剧下跌，Deeter仍认为市场的混乱正在为精明的投资者们创造有利的获利条件。 在接受周四媒体采访时，Deeter 将当前这种潜在V形轨迹与新冠疫情期间以及全球金融危机期间所见到 的类似反弹模式进行比较。不过，他警告称，这次复苏在本质上将截然不同，并预测不同增长前景以及 基本面预期的软件公司之间将出现"巨大的分化"，而不是市场齐涨式的统一触底反弹节奏。 Deeter表示，投资者们对软件公司的态度已经转为怀疑，将它们视为"有罪，直到被证明是无罪"。他还 强调，股票市场当前正处于"给我看资金(show me the money)模式"，投资者们似乎对于软件公司转 向"AI+软件"雄心壮志以及对于 ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 报道 即使是近期相对稳健的就业数据也难以提振美股。美国1月份非农就业岗位新增13万个，远超华尔街预 期，失业率也从去年12月的4.4%降至4.3%，但市场在短暂的上扬之后再度疲软。 谷歌、Meta、微软和亚马逊均公布了庞大的资本支出计划，四家科技公司今年合计将支出高达6500亿 美元，这些资金将主要用于扩建AI基础设施。 投资者对这些科技企业资金流可持续性的担忧可能会对市场情绪造成影响，当前这些企业的资本支出已 经越来越依赖债务或股权融资。 投资者对AI热潮的追捧促成了美股三年牛市，如今这股热潮已经跌跌撞撞。 近期，美股市场轮动的趋势正愈发明显。亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet等科技巨头公布了巨额资本支出 计划，加上投资者们对Anthropic新工具的担忧再度加剧，导致众多人工智能相关的企业股票遭到抛 售，资金纷纷涌入其他板块的价值型股票。 美国东部时间2月12日，道琼斯指数收跌1.34%，报49,451.98点；标普500指数跌1.57%，报6,832.76点； 纳斯达克指数跌2.03%，报22,597.15点。 近期市场基调已转变为对AI颠覆性潜力的担忧，软件、法律服 ...

AI巨头与传统企业软件厂商正在AI代理工具领域展开全面竞争。 2月12日，据The Information报道，OpenAI和Anthropic推出的企业级AI产品正在冲击现有企业软件市 场，而微软、Salesforce、ServiceNow等传统厂商则加速推出代理构建工具和管理平台以应对挑战。 这场竞争涉及四大类产品：基于浏览器的代理、可操作计算机的代理、代理构建工具以及代理管理控制 台。 Anthropic本周二向Windows用户发布了Cowork的研究预览版，而OpenAI上周推出了Frontier平台，帮助 Uber和Thermo Fisher Scientific等企业创建多个AI协作者并分配不同任务。 这些举动加剧了对传统企业软件厂商的压力。市场参与者普遍预期，未来白领员工将不再手动使用企业 应用程序，而是监督一系列能够自主连接应用的AI代理。 微软CEO Satya Nadella早在2024年就表示，传统软件应用将在"代理时代""崩溃"，因为它们"本质上是带 有业务逻辑的数据库"。微软甚至公开讨论过向访问其应用的AI收取订阅费用，就像向人类用户收费一 样。 四类产品激烈竞争 根据The In ...

北京时间2月13日凌晨，金价突然闪崩，现货黄金价格直线跳水超3%，日内跌近200美元。现货白银价格跌超8%。 | | | SNDK | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | | 美光 | 416.995 | +1.62% | | | | MU | | | | 4 | | 特斯拉 | 420.505 | -1.81% | | | | TSLA | | | | 5 | | 台积电 | 368.920 | -1.38% | | | | TSM | | | | 6 | | 阿里巴巴 | 158.030 | -3.83% | | | | BABA | | | | | △ | 谷歌 | 313.849 | +0.81% | | | | GOOG | | | | ಜಿ | | 苹果 | 266.890 | -3.13% | | | | AAPL | | | | 90 | | 微软 | 399.945 | -1.09% | | | | MSFT | | | | 10 | AMDC | AMD | 207.220 | -2.98% | | | | AMD | | | | 11 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [33]. Core Insights - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their investments in AI for 2026, focusing on talent acquisition, computing power infrastructure, and marketing expenditures. The competition for consumer-facing AI Agent products is expected to intensify during the Spring Festival period in China [2]. - The report emphasizes the transformative potential of AI in changing user interactions with software and the internet, highlighting the value creation from large models. It suggests focusing on companies with the most certainty in computing power and large models, including Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent [2]. Summary by Sections Company Developments - SpaceX has fully acquired xAI, with a post-merger valuation of $1.25 trillion. The merger will allow xAI to operate as a subsidiary of SpaceX, integrating its Grok model with SpaceX's satellite data [17]. - Meta has launched a series of AI advertising tools, including AI Video Generation 2.0, which simplifies the creative production process for advertisers [20]. - Kunlun Technology has released the Skywork desktop version, a local multi-model AI office agent that prioritizes data security and ease of use [21]. - OpenAI has launched two core products, including an upgraded programming model and an enterprise-level AI platform, enhancing its commercial capabilities [22]. - Meta is testing a standalone AI video application called Vibes, focusing on AI-generated content [23]. - Four major tech giants (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) plan to invest a total of $610 billion in AI infrastructure, representing over 75% of global investment in this area [24]. Underlying Technologies - Step 3.5 Flash model by Jumpshare has been released, utilizing a sparse MoE architecture to address computing power challenges [25]. - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen team has open-sourced the Qwen3-Coder-Next programming model, achieving high performance with low computational costs [26]. - Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.6, significantly expanding its context window to 1 million tokens, enhancing its capabilities for complex document analysis [26]. - The Chinese Academy of Sciences has introduced the "Feiyu-1.0" model, focusing on dual-direction coupling technology for environmental data analysis [27]. Industry Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice to enhance AI computing power infrastructure, aiming to establish a national interconnected computing power node system [28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies with strong positions in computing power and large models, such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent, as they are expected to lead in the rapidly evolving AI landscape [29].

这一警告并非孤例。大规模劳动力替代的问题正困扰着全球各国政府，尽管在更广泛的经济逆风中，真 实的失业人数仍不明朗。 微软人工智能业务负责人发出迄今最激进的自动化预警，称绝大多数白领专业工作可能在一年半内被 AI取代，这一时间表远早于商界和政策制定者的普遍预期，为全球劳动力市场敲响警钟。 微软AI首席执行官Mustafa Suleyman在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，律师、会计师、项目经理和 营销人员等从事电脑办公的专业人士，其"大多数任务"将在未来12至18个月内被AI完全自动化。 AI导致的失业已初现端倪。根据职业介绍公司Challenger的报告，今年1月有7624个工作岗位因AI被 裁，占当月裁员总数的7%；2025年全年，AI导致的裁员公告达54836人。自2023年开始追踪以来， 79449个计划裁员岗位归咎于AI。 与此同时，AI安全与滥用风险也在加速升温。Anthropic在最新破坏活动报告中警告，其Claude模型在特 定计算机使用场景下对"有害滥用"更敏感，甚至出现与化学武器开发相关的风险信号。 AI大规模取代白领还有12至18个月的时间窗口 Suleyman的预测标志着科技行业对AI取 ...

// 热点头条 // 1. 智谱：发布GLM Coding Plan 价格调整函称，近期，GLM Coding Plan市场需求持续强劲增长，用户 规模与调用量快速提升。为保障高负载下的稳定性与服务质量，公司同步加大算力与模型优化投入，产 品能力持续升级。基于实际使用情况与资源投入变化，公司决定对GLM Coding Plan套餐价格体系进行 结构性调整。调整内容如下：取消首购优惠，保留按季按年订阅优惠；套餐价格进行结构性调整，整体 涨幅自30%起；已订阅用户价格保持不变。生效时间：2026年2月12日。 2. Anthropic：完成G轮300亿美元融资，投后估值达3800亿美元，本轮融资包含此前宣布的来自微软和 英伟达的投资部分，重要投资方包括Accel、Addition、Alpha Wave Global等，目前年化营收达140亿美 元。 3. OpenAI：发布首款在Cerebras Systems芯片上运行的人工智能模型GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark，此举旨在减 少对英伟达芯片的依赖，推动人工智能模型运行成本降低和算力自主可控。 4. 软银集团：第三财季净利润达2485.9亿日元（约合16亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a rare and widespread panic sell-off, driven by concerns over AI's disruptive potential across various sectors [1][3] Market Behavior - Over 40 S&P 500 stocks exhibited abnormal volatility exceeding three standard deviations, marking the highest level observed by Goldman Sachs trader Ryan Shakey [1] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, REITs, and healthcare are leading the market, while technology, media, and telecommunications are facing significant declines [1] - The Goldman Sachs AI risk exposure basket (GSTMTAIR) saw a sharp drop of 510 basis points in a single day, indicating heightened market sensitivity to AI-related risks [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has shifted dramatically, with a notable loss of appetite for bottom-fishing, as hedge funds and long institutions are selling off but at smaller scales, indicating a growing sense of fatigue [4] - The market breadth has deteriorated sharply, with 350 S&P 500 stocks declining, and major tech companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Cisco dragging down the index [5] Sector-Specific Impacts - The logistics sector has become a recent focal point, with CH Robinson experiencing an eight-standard deviation drop, reflecting the spread of AI panic from tech to traditional industries [6] - Financial stocks, previously seen as safe havens, are also under pressure, with regional banks losing their appeal as attractive investments [6] - The healthcare sector has seen a 32% drop in contract research organizations (CROs) this month, following Pfizer's announcement to utilize AI for most clinical trials [6] Reassessment of AI Winners - The technology, media, and telecommunications sectors, excluding storage chips, are facing widespread declines, as previously regarded "winners" are being sold off amid risk-averse sentiment [7] - Investors are confused about the underlying issues in earnings reports, as fundamental analysis appears to be overlooked in the current panic environment [7]