Group 1: Market Overview - Software stocks have experienced significant declines, with Salesforce down 28%, ServiceNow down 30%, and Microsoft down 17% year-to-date [1] - Dan Ives describes the current selloff as the worst he has seen in 25 years, arguing that investors are mistakenly viewing enterprise software as obsolete in the AI era [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Salesforce is trading at 14.2x forward earnings, despite generating $900 million in AI Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) that is growing at 120% year-over-year [1] - ServiceNow reported Q3 revenue of $3.41 billion, up 22% year-over-year, but still faced a stock decline due to market fears surrounding AI disruption [1] - Microsoft, despite being a leader in AI integration, has seen a 17% decline this year, attributed to lower-than-expected forward Azure growth projections [1] Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Ives believes the selloff indicates a disconnect between market pricing and fundamental value, similar to past market crashes where quality companies traded at depressed valuations [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates that generative AI could add approximately $400 billion to the Enterprise Software Total Addressable Market by 2028, while software multiples have compressed by 33% since October 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon suggests that the AI-driven software selloff is overdone, indicating that many companies will adapt successfully [1]

Quick Read Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) entered bear market territory with drops of 23% and 27% from recent peaks. Microsoft capex rose 66% to $37.5B. Amazon announced $200B in capex for 2026. Both companies met or beat earnings expectations but sold off as investors questioned AI spending returns. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. Two of tech's most dominant companies just hit ...

Core Insights - Amazon and Microsoft have entered bear market territory, with declines of 23% and 27% from recent peaks, respectively [1] - Both companies met or exceeded earnings expectations, yet their stocks sold off due to concerns over capital expenditure and AI spending returns [1] Company Performance - Amazon's stock closed at $199.60, down 13.5% year-to-date and 17.7% over the past month, having peaked at $258.60 within the last 52 weeks [1] - Microsoft's stock closed at $401.84, down 16.9% year-to-date and 14.6% over the past month, with a 52-week high of $553.50 [1] - Amazon's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected at $200 billion, while Microsoft's capex rose 66% year-over-year to $37.5 billion [1] Market Sentiment - Investors are questioning the return on nearly $700 billion projected capital expenditure by Big Tech on AI-driven infrastructure [1] - Analysts have turned cautious, with Zacks rating Amazon as Hold due to premium valuation and aggressive spending outpacing AWS growth, while Microsoft received a Somewhat-Bearish rating due to high capex guidance [1] Broader Market Context - The overall market is feeling the impact of the declines in major tech stocks, with the Nasdaq-100 down 2.2% year-to-date and 4.1% over the past month [1] - Other companies in the Magnificent 7, such as Alphabet and Tesla, have also seen declines, while only Nvidia and Meta have remained relatively flat year-to-date [1]

2月13日，美国科技巨头亚马逊收盘报198.79美元/股，市值2.1万亿美元，为连续第9日下跌，创下2006年7月以来最长的连跌纪录。亚马逊股价较近期高点 累计下跌超23%，已进入技术性熊市，成为Mag7(美股七巨头)中第二家跌入熊市的公司。 微软是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员，股价于1月29日跌入熊市。截至13日收盘，微软股价较近期高点下跌27.8%。Meta可能成为下一个跌入熊市的Mag7成 员，截至周五收盘，较去年高点累跌19.6%，距离熊市的20%跌幅门槛仅差0.4%。据券商中国统计，今年以来，Mag7市值蒸发了约1.51万亿美元(折合人民 币约10.4万亿元)。 近期，美股市场轮动的趋势正愈发明显。亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet等科技巨头公布了巨额资本支出计划，加上投资者们对Anthropic新工具的担忧再度 加剧，导致众多人工智能相关的企业股票遭到抛售，资金纷纷涌入其他板块的价值型股票。 美国银行认为，2020年以来，以"七巨头"为代表的科技巨头在美股市场上的领导地位正面临"重大威胁"。随着美国中期选举的临近，投资者应逐步倾向于 投资中小盘股票。 美银首席投资策略师迈克尔.哈特内特(Michae ...

编辑｜江佩霞 记者｜吴斌 见习记者林芊蔚 与此同时，有报道指出，近日，瑞银集团和高盛相继向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交了截 至2025年12月31日的第四季度持仓报告（13F），报告显示， 两家机构对多只美股科技巨头进 行了大手笔减仓。其中，瑞银集团减持了1004.2万股英伟达，减持幅度达11.47%。 2月13日，美国科技巨头亚马逊收盘报198.79美元/股， 市值2.1万亿美元，为 连续第9日下 跌，创下2006年7月以来最长的连跌纪录 。亚马逊股价 较近期高 点累计下跌超23%，已进入 技术性熊市 ，成为Mag7（美股七巨头）中第二家跌入熊市的公司。 微软是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员，股价于1月29日跌入熊市。截至13日收盘，微软股价较近期 高点下跌27.8%。Meta可能成为下一个跌入熊市的Mag7成员，截至周五收盘，较去年高点累 跌19.6%，距离熊市的20%跌幅门槛仅差0.4%。据券商中国统计， 今年以来，Mag7市值蒸发 了约1.51万亿美元（折合人民币约10.4万亿元）。 展望未来，威尔逊分析称，人工智能赋能板块的基本面利好因素仍在，而且人工智能应用端相 关标的的投资价值仍然被低估了。那些 ...

中国基金报记者 储是 全球最大对冲基金桥水刚刚披露了最新美股持仓报告。2025年第四季度，桥水增持英伟达、亚马逊和美光科技等科技股，还增持了黄金生产商股纽蒙特。 增持科技股和黄金概念股 美东时间2月13日，桥水基金披露了最新美股持仓报告（13F）。 13F报告显示，桥水基金去年第四季度持仓总市值达274亿美元，而第三季度总市值为255亿美元。 截至2025年第四季度末，桥水的前十大标的分别是标普500指数ETF-SPDR（SPY）、标普500指数ETF-iShares（IVV）、英伟达、拉姆研究、赛富时、谷 歌、微软、亚马逊、奥多比、GE Vernova，前十大持仓标的占总市值的36.35%。 | Stock | History | Sector | Shares Held or | Market | % of | Previous % of | Rank | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Principal | Value | Portfolio | Portfolio | | | | | | Amt | | | | | ...

Group 1 - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in technology stocks and gold-related stocks in Q4 2025, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Newmont Corporation [1][2] - The total market value of Bridgewater's holdings reached $27.4 billion in Q4 2025, up from $25.5 billion in Q3 2025 [2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 36.35% of the total portfolio, with SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV) being the largest positions [2][3] Group 2 - Bridgewater increased its Nvidia shares from 2.51 million to 3.87 million, a 54% increase, and also raised its Amazon shares to 1.95 million [4] - The largest reductions in holdings were in Uber, Fiserv, Google, Meta, and Microsoft [4] - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation from the U.S. to international markets, with a notable focus on gold as a strong asset class [7][8] Group 3 - Ray Dalio emphasized that the main sources of returns in 2025 were changes in currency values and the underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to non-U.S. stocks and gold [7] - The dollar depreciated against several currencies, with a 39% decline against gold, highlighting gold's status as a strong asset [7] - Current high price-to-earnings ratios and low credit spreads indicate that overall valuations are expensive, with expected long-term stock returns at about 4.7% [8]

当中国即将踏入丙午马年春节之际，大洋彼岸的美股市场却正在经历一场罕见的"寒流"。 标普500指数本周下跌1.4%，为去年11月以来最大跌幅，且在本周五（2月13日）的交易中，超过40只 成分股出现超过3倍标准差的异常波动，这是高盛交易员记忆中的最高水平。从物流、软件到金融、保 险，AI颠覆预期的多米诺骨牌正以摧枯拉朽之势冲击着美股多个板块。一个关键问题随之而来：AI是 否已经不再是美股增长引擎，而是变成了"估值粉碎机"？ 图片来源：视觉中国 标普500指数前一交易日仅15只个股出现异常波动，周五就激增至40只，这很可能不是简单的回调，而 是市场微观结构层面的信心塌方。物流板块成为重灾区，C.H. Robinson作为美国最大的第三方物流与货 运经纪公司之一，其股价波动往往被视为行业风向标，周五其遭遇8倍标准差的暴跌，陷入程序化止损 盘与恐慌性抛售形成的"死亡螺旋"。科技巨头也集体领跌，苹果、亚马逊、微软、Meta成为指数最大拖 累。 尤其触目惊心的是，亚马逊股价九连跌，创下自2006年以来最长连跌纪录，继微软之后也正式跌入技术 性熊市，即从重要高点下跌20%及以上，标志着市场对"AI受益者"的叙事可能彻底反转 ...

Core Insights - A recent sell-off in the market has created unique buying opportunities, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, which remains a focal point for investors [1] - The demand for AI technology continues to drive significant investment opportunities, especially in companies that provide essential hardware and cloud services [1] Group 1: AI Hardware Providers - Nvidia and Broadcom are major beneficiaries of AI spending, as they produce computing equipment crucial for AI data centers, leading to strong growth prospects [4][7] - Nvidia's GPUs are the industry standard for AI computing, and the company maintains a competitive edge with its technology stack [6] - Broadcom collaborates with AI hyperscalers to design custom AI chips, enhancing its position in the market [6][7] Group 2: Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) plays a vital role in the AI ecosystem by fabricating logic chips for Nvidia and Broadcom, as well as other tech companies [8] - TSMC's advancements in 2-nanometer chip technology promise reduced power consumption, which is beneficial as AI data centers expand [10] Group 3: Cloud Computing Providers - Alphabet and Microsoft, despite recent stock sell-offs, are key players in the cloud computing industry, investing heavily to expand their AI capabilities [11] - Both companies are experiencing significant revenue growth in their cloud services, with Microsoft Azure revenue increasing by 39% and Google Cloud by 48% in their latest quarters [14] - The ongoing demand for cloud computing services supports the rationale for AI capital investment spending [12][14]

Core Insights - Hyperscalers are expected to significantly increase spending on AI infrastructure in 2026, with revised estimates suggesting a 70% increase to approximately $650 billion, surpassing initial Wall Street estimates of 19% growth [10][9]. Company Insights - Nvidia has been a key player in the AI sector, with its shares rising 1,180% since early 2023, and analysts believe the stock remains undervalued, with a median target price of $250 per share indicating a 33% upside from the current price of $187 [1][2]. - Nvidia holds over 80% market share in AI accelerators and is recognized for its full-stack strategy, which includes developing both hardware and software solutions for AI infrastructure [4][6]. - The company's networking revenue surged by 162% in the most recent quarter, highlighting its strong position in the market [5]. Industry Insights - Wall Street has consistently underestimated AI hyperscaler capital expenditures (capex), with actual growth rates far exceeding initial forecasts; for instance, capex increased by 54% in 2024 and 64% in 2025, compared to initial estimates of 19% and 22% respectively [8]. - Major companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft have announced substantial increases in their capex for AI infrastructure in 2026, with Alphabet projecting $180 billion (up 98% from 2025), Amazon $200 billion (up 56%), Meta $125 billion (up 74%), and Microsoft over $140 billion (up 59%) [11].