Netflix, Inc. ( NFLX:CA ) ( NFLX ) is down 20% since my last Hold rating two months ago. It was initially triggered by a double-missed 3Q earnings result. Although the company's fundamentals were still holding up (theAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NFLX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no busines ...

In recent years, Mexico has embraced digital transformation initiatives in order to overhaul its tax system, introducing measures that enable instantaneous oversight of transactions. This evolution mandates that major online platforms report sales data directly to the country’s Tax Administration Service (SAT) without delay. Companies like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Uber (NYSE: UBER), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), TikTok, DiDi, and Mercado Libre (NASDAQ: MELI) are now required to share detailed transaction information ...

Core Insights - Calendar spreads are an options strategy that allows traders to benefit from time decay and changes in implied volatility [1] - This strategy involves selling a short-term option while buying a longer-term option at the same strike price, which can be structured with calls or puts for various market outlooks [1][2] Group 1: Strategy Overview - Calendar spreads are typically used when traders expect limited price movement in the short term but anticipate increased volatility or directional moves later [2] - The strategy can be applied to both bullish and bearish market conditions [2] Group 2: Trade Examples - The Barchart Long Call Calendar Screener highlights potential calendar spread trades on stocks like Delta Airlines (DAL), Netflix (NFLX), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) [3] - For Delta Airlines, a calendar spread at a $70 strike price involves selling a January 16 call option and buying a March 20 call option, costing approximately $2.55, with a maximum profit potential of $230 [4] - The breakeven prices for the Delta Airlines trade are estimated at around $64.75 and $76.75, which may vary with changes in implied volatility [5] Group 3: Trade Management - If Delta Airlines stock breaks through $65 or $77, adjustments or closure of the trade would be considered [6] - For Netflix, a similar calendar spread could be set up by selling the $95-strike January 23 call and buying the $95-strike March 20 call, with the stock currently trading at $91.46 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is expected to report its fourth-quarter and full-year results for fiscal year 2025 on January 20, 2026, and there is speculation about whether buying the stock before this report is a wise decision [1][5]. Group 1: Historical Performance and Stock Reactions - Historically, buying Netflix shares before the Q4 report has resulted in double-digit percentage gains in four of the past five years within six market days after the report [1]. - Netflix has a tendency to deliver positive surprises in its Q4 reports, which could lead to stock price increases, despite current concerns over a $72 billion debt-financed bid for Warner Bros. Discovery [2]. - However, not every Q4 report has resulted in stock price increases; for instance, in January 2022, shares fell by as much as 31.6% following the Q4 2021 report due to a shift in management strategy focusing on profitability over subscriber growth [3]. Group 2: Current Market Sentiment and Recommendations - The stock is currently viewed as a good long-term investment due to its potential for profitable growth, but short-term market reactions remain unpredictable [4]. - Investors are advised to consider establishing a position in Netflix before the earnings report if they do not already have one, while also weighing the company's long-term business prospects [7]. - Notably, Netflix was not included in a list of the top 10 stocks recommended by analysts, suggesting that there may be better investment opportunities available [8].

As a non-traditional retiree that retired from the U.S. Navy, I've taken a simple yet effective approach to investing by owning dividend stocks. A few weeks ago, I opened my first non-dividend-paying position in Netflix, Inc. (Formerly known as "The Dividend Collectuh." Top 1% of financial experts on TipRanks. Contributing analyst to the iREIT+Hoya Capital investment group. Dividend Collection Agency is not a registered investment professional nor financial advisor and these articles should not be taken as ...

Core Insights - Netflix has transitioned from being a consensus favorite to a stock undergoing reassessment, with the change in positioning being more significant than the absolute price decline [1] Performance Overview - Netflix has underperformed the broader market, trading over 30% below its peak due to a weaker-than-expected October earnings report, scrutiny around execution, uncertainty regarding a potential Warner Bros. transaction, and a valuation with limited margin for error [2] Fundamental Analysis - Core fundamentals remain intact, with solid revenue growth, stable global engagement, and maintained relevance as a platform; however, investor confidence in near-term execution and capital allocation has been repriced [3][4] M&A and Strategic Concerns - The potential Warner Bros. transaction has introduced discomfort among investors, focusing on timing and balance-sheet risk rather than long-term strategic logic [5] - Netflix's capital-intensive model raises concerns about adding leverage and complexity, especially when markets favor financial clarity [6] Strategic Direction - Despite stock weakness, Netflix maintains an offensive strategic posture with an extensive 2026 content slate, focusing on engagement density rather than just subscriber growth [7][8] Competitive Positioning - Netflix's pure-play content operation contrasts with platform-oriented peers like Roku and diversified ecosystems like Amazon and Disney, amplifying both upside potential and investor scrutiny [9] Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off has been orderly, indicating systematic de-risking rather than capitulation, with selling pressure moderating at multiple price levels [10][11] Future Outlook - Netflix does not currently appear inexpensive and lacks an obvious near-term catalyst; however, it is no longer crowded or supported by unquestioned optimism, altering the risk-reward framework for institutional investors [12] - Future phases will depend on clarity in capital allocation, consistent execution, and evidence of engagement translating into durable monetization [13]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market can be irrational but generally identifies top companies, making it rare for industry leaders to trade at cheap valuations. However, overpaying for even the best stocks can lead to disappointing returns [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The best strategy for capitalizing on obvious winners is to buy when they fall out of favor, often due to temporary adversity [2] - Netflix has evolved from a DVD rental service to a global streaming leader with over 300 million subscribers, turning a $100 investment in 2002 into over $78,000 [3] - Netflix's recent $82.7 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. would significantly enhance its content portfolio, including HBO and HBO Max [4] Group 2: Financial Considerations - The acquisition must pass regulatory review, and Netflix's stock has declined 30% from its all-time high since the announcement, primarily due to concerns over increased debt [5] - Post-acquisition, Netflix's debt would rise to approximately $75 billion, but this leverage is manageable at roughly 3x its trailing-12-month EBITDA [6] - The acquisition could allow Netflix to reduce its first-party content budget while attracting new subscribers [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Buying high-quality stocks when they are unpopular can be a rewarding strategy, as seen with Netflix's pending acquisition affecting its stock price [7] - Uber Technologies remains a strong performer despite investor concerns regarding competition in autonomous driving [7]

Core Viewpoint - Larry Ellison, co-founder and CTO of Oracle, is personally backing his son David Ellison's acquisition bid for Warner Bros. Discovery with a $40.4 billion irrevocable personal guarantee, addressing concerns about the financing capabilities of their company, Paramount Skydance [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - David Ellison's Paramount Skydance proposed an all-cash acquisition offer of $108 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery, equating to approximately $30 per share, which was rejected by the Warner Bros. Discovery board [2]. - The Warner Bros. Discovery board opted to partner with Netflix instead, agreeing to sell its film production and streaming assets for about $83 billion [2]. Group 2: Financing Concerns - The rejection of the acquisition offer was primarily due to doubts regarding the Ellison family's financing capabilities, with board members criticizing the financing plan as "unrealistic" and highlighting the risks associated with the "revocable family trust" [3]. - Larry Ellison's submission of the $40.4 billion guarantee aims to eliminate these financing concerns, as it represents about one-sixth of his personal net worth of $247.3 billion [3]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - David Ellison emphasized that their acquisition proposal is the only way to maintain the overall integrity of Warner Bros. Discovery, contrasting with Netflix's plan that excludes the global television network division, which includes CNN [4]. - The decision now lies with the Warner Bros. Discovery board to choose between continuing their partnership with Netflix or negotiating with the buyer who has committed $40 billion in personal assets [4].

Core Insights - Visa, ExxonMobil, Oracle, and Netflix are identified as potential investments with the ability to join the $1 trillion market cap club by 2030, appealing to patient investors [2][19] Visa - Visa has a straightforward path to reaching a $1 trillion market cap, supported by high margins, reasonable valuation, and steady earnings growth [4] - In 2025, Visa's non-GAAP earnings per share grew by 14%, indicating strong growth potential that could lead to a market cap exceeding $1 trillion by 2030 [5] - Current market cap stands at $663 billion, with a gross margin of 77.31% and a dividend yield of 0.70% [6][7] ExxonMobil - ExxonMobil needs to double its market cap in five years to surpass $1 trillion, but it has strong fundamentals to achieve this [7] - The company generates significant free cash flow and high earnings, even with oil prices at four-year lows, and has reduced production costs [8] - ExxonMobil's corporate plan forecasts double-digit earnings growth through 2030, with a potential 15% annual growth rate that could double earnings [9][10] Oracle - Oracle nearly reached a $1 trillion market cap but faced a decline due to concerns over AI spending and debt [11] - The company is investing heavily in data center infrastructure to grow its cloud computing market share, with $523 billion in remaining performance obligations indicating high demand [12] - Despite being free cash flow negative, Oracle's aggressive AI investments present a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for investors [13] Netflix - Netflix's market cap has decreased from over $560 billion to under $400 billion due to valuation concerns and uncertainties regarding its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery [14] - The company is expected to grow earnings through global subscriber growth and pricing power, with potential benefits from the acquisition [15][16] - Netflix has demonstrated strong pricing power and effective content spending strategies, positioning it as a likely outperformer over the next five years [17]

Group 1 - Trump announced the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by U.S. military forces, stating that the U.S. will "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition is implemented [2] - The military operation involved over 150 aircraft and lasted approximately 2 hours and 20 minutes, with no U.S. casualties or equipment losses reported [2] - Maduro and his wife are to be sent to New York for judicial proceedings, facing charges related to "deadly drug terrorism" against the U.S. [2] Group 2 - BMW China announced a price adjustment for 31 key models starting January 1, 2026, with 24 models seeing price cuts exceeding 10% and some up to 30.1 million yuan [3][4] - The price adjustment aims to reflect changes in the official guidance price, with the lowest model now priced at 20.8 million yuan, making it competitive with domestic SUVs [3][4] Group 3 - NIO's CEO Li Bin announced in a company-wide letter that three new models will be launched in 2026, aiming to increase market share in the high-end vehicle segment [6] - NIO reported a record delivery of 48,135 vehicles in December 2025, marking a 46.9% year-on-year increase [6] Group 4 - The wholesale reference price for 25-year-old Flying Moutai has dropped to 1,495 yuan per bottle, reflecting a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day [7] - The price for a full box of the same product is now reported at 1,505 yuan per bottle, down 20 yuan [7] Group 5 - Tesla reported a global delivery of 1.636 million vehicles in 2025, a decline of approximately 8.6%, marking the first time it has been surpassed in annual electric vehicle sales by BYD [8] Group 6 - Netflix plans to shorten the theatrical release window for Warner Bros. films to 17 days post-acquisition, raising concerns among traditional cinemas and Hollywood creators [11] - The current standard release window is around 45 days, and negotiations are expected to be contentious [11] Group 7 - Baidu announced plans to spin off Kunlun Chip and seek independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the application already submitted [12]