机构：西部证券 研究员：于佳琦/吴岑 随着与永辉合作的供应链协同效应逐步释放，公司运营效率有望进一步提升。基于公司在渠道升级、IP 战略与全球化运营方面的成功执行，其增长质量与盈利能见度持续提升。我们预计公司2025~2027 年 EPS 为1.93/2.58/3.26 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧；品牌及IP 孵化不及预期；门店扩张经营风险。 国内业务企稳回升。公司25H1 中国内地收入同比增长11.4%，其中第二季度同店销售额实现四个季度 以来首次正增长，显示运营优化与客流改善初见成效。公司战略重心已从数量扩张转向质量提升，通过 关闭低效小店、优化网络结构，截至25H1，门店总数达4,305 家，净增190 家。以MINISO LAND和旗 舰店为代表的大店业态，凭借沉浸式IP 场景与丰富SKU，显著提升客单价与坪效，成为增长与品牌升 级的核心动力。未来，国内市场将聚焦同店增长与大店拓展，计划净增100-150 家门店。 IP 战略已从引流工具升级为核心竞争壁垒。IP 产品通过情感价值有效提升品牌溢价与用户粘性，对公 司收入形成有力支撑。公司正从"IP 联名"向"自有IP 孵化"深化，首 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown signs of operational improvement in its domestic business, with a notable increase in overseas market performance and the TOP TOY brand continuing to grow rapidly [6] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 9.39 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.91 billion, down 22.6% year-on-year [6] - The company is shifting its strategy from relying on external licensed IP to a dual approach of "licensing + proprietary," enhancing its brand and product margins [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024A: 16,994 million - 2025E: 21,083 million - 2026E: 25,190 million - 2027E: 29,658 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 48.1% for 2024, 24.1% for 2025, 19.5% for 2026, and 17.7% for 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2024A: 2,618 million - 2025E: 2,421 million - 2026E: 3,398 million - 2027E: 4,240 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 48.0% for 2024, -7.5% for 2025, 40.3% for 2026, and 24.8% for 2027 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has expanded its store count in mainland China to 4,305 by the end of June 2025, with a net increase of 190 stores compared to the previous year [6] - The overseas market has also seen significant growth, with a net increase of 554 stores, bringing the total to 3,307 [6] - The TOP TOY brand has shown impressive growth, with a net increase of 98 stores globally, reaching a total of 293 [6] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's stock is set at 53.82 HKD, with the current price at 43.82 HKD [2] - The company is expected to achieve a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2026, based on comparable company valuations [6]

国信证券发布研报称，随着名创优品(09896)国内大店策略优化门店结构并改善运营效率，推动同店销 售逐步改善;同时IP战略强化全球竞争力，强劲推动海外业务和TOP TOY品牌发展，未来随着公司持续 深化IP战略，拓展自有艺术家IP，并加速国内外门店结构升级，主业收入端有望提升，同时经营利润率 有望逐步改善，维持"优于大市"评级。 国信证券主要观点如下： 公司主业经营拐点显现，管理层上调全年指引 公司二季度经营层面改善明显，一方面海内外同店均有所改善，同时公司逆转此前净关店趋势，带动业 绩超预期增长。来看具体财务数据，名创优品单二季度实现营收49.66亿/yoy+23.1%，超出公司此前 18%-21%指引上限。经营利润8.36亿/yoy+11.3%，经调整净利润6.92亿/yoy+10.6%，经调整净利率 13.9%/yoy。 在此基础上，公司管理层上调全年指引，预计Q3整体收入增长25-28%，MINISO品牌国内收入增长中双 到高双(同店增长高单);海外收入加速至30%-35%，同店增长低中单位数;TOPTOY品牌收入增长 70%-80%，同店增长中个位数;Q3经营利润率环比继续改善。全年来看，集团收入同 ...

Company Overview - Company recently engaged with its Chairman and CEO, Ye Guofu, and the General Manager for the U.S. market, Tom Bartlebaugh, to discuss business strategies in the U.S. and globally [1] - The focus is on the company's IP strategy and refined operations in the U.S. market, which are expected to yield positive results [1] IP Strategy - The company is actively signing artists to enhance its own IP incubation, establishing a dual-track global IP ecosystem with both licensed and proprietary IP [1] - Management is confident in the company's unique advantages in full-category coverage, multi-channel penetration, global layout, and end-to-end operations, which facilitate collaborations with artists at relatively low costs [1] - Continuous improvement of IP collaboration and promotion mechanisms is underway, including a professional selection and elimination system to maintain the lifecycle and freshness of IP [1] Retail Strategy - The company is advancing channel enhancement and refined operations, opening high-potential stores like MINISO LAND in Shanghai and MINISOSPACE in Nanjing [1] - Management believes there is significant room for improvement in domestic stores, leveraging a large store strategy and iterative optimization to enhance brand upgrade and consumer loyalty [1] U.S. Market Operations - Tom Bartlebaugh brings 15 years of experience from similar companies in the U.S. and emphasizes a focus on user needs and disciplined, scientific business expansion [1] - The company sees strong competitive advantages in multi-category offerings, product quality, and IP development in the U.S. market [1] - The current strategy includes creating a family-oriented "one-stop" shopping experience to cater to various family members' needs [1] - Operational improvements are driven by data models for store location, staffing, and backend support, enhancing operational precision [1] - The company is testing various store formats, including Mall, Lifestyle Center, and Power Center, while developing a membership system for ongoing customer engagement [1] Financial Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on its IP strategy and overseas operational efficiency, projecting adjusted net profits of 2.9 billion and 3.7 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - Current valuations suggest a 19 times non-IFRS P/E for 2025, with a target price increase of 9% to 56.93 HKD and 29.38 USD, indicating a 17% upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a positive outlook on MINISO's IP strategy and overseas operational efficiency, projecting adjusted net profits of 2.9 billion and 3.7 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, while raising the target price by 9% to 56.93 HKD and 29.38 USD [1] Group 1: IP Strategy and Global Ecosystem - The company is actively signing artists and increasing its own IP incubation, establishing a dual-track global IP ecosystem with both licensed and proprietary IP [1] - Management expresses confidence in the company's unique advantages in full-category coverage, multi-channel penetration, global layout, and full-link operations, which empower collaborations with artists while keeping costs relatively low [1] - The company is refining its IP collaboration and promotion mechanisms, creating a professional selection and elimination system to ensure the lifecycle and freshness of IP [1] Group 2: Domestic and International Operations - The company is enhancing channel operations and precision management by opening high-potential flagship stores like MINISO LAND in Shanghai and MINISO SPACE in Nanjing, believing there is significant room for improvement in domestic stores [1] - The management aims to drive brand upgrades and strengthen consumer loyalty through a large store strategy and iterative optimization [1] - The company focuses on user needs and aims for controlled, scientific business expansion, with strong competitiveness in multi-category offerings, product quality, and IP development in the U.S. market [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Market Positioning - The company is creating a family-oriented "one-stop" shopping experience to meet diverse shopping needs of different family members [2] - Operationally, the company utilizes data models to enhance store location selection, staffing, and backend support, improving operational precision [2] - The company is leveraging IP and seasonal events to generate excitement, using everyday products for high-frequency repurchases while promoting high-quality IP and cost-effective products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a positive outlook on MINISO's IP strategy and overseas operational efficiency, projecting adjusted net profits of 2.9 billion and 3.7 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, while raising the target price by 9% to HKD 56.93 and USD 29.38 [1] Group 1 - The company is actively signing artists and increasing its own IP incubation, building a dual-track global IP ecosystem with licensed and proprietary IP [1] - Management expresses confidence in the company's unique advantages in full-category coverage, multi-channel penetration, global layout, and full-link operations, which enhance collaboration with artists while keeping costs relatively low [1] - The company is refining its IP collaboration and promotion mechanisms, establishing a professional selection and elimination system to ensure the lifecycle and freshness of IP [1] Group 2 - The management emphasizes the need to focus on user needs and expand the business in a measured and scientific manner [2] - The company believes its U.S. operations possess strong competitive advantages in multi-category offerings, product quality, and IP development, while also working on a family-oriented "one-stop" shopping experience [2] - Operationally, the company utilizes data models to drive precise store location selection, staffing, and backend support, enhancing operational efficiency [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to transform from a traditional manufacturing entity into a cultural platform by leveraging high-profile IPs like CR7 and PSGA, thereby enhancing its brand value and market presence [1][7][9]. Group 1: Strategic Partnerships - The collaboration with PSGA represents a significant opportunity for the company, allowing it to tap into youth sports education, co-branded product development, and event management [2][3]. - The company plans a three-step approach to maximize value from the PSGA partnership, focusing on promoting PSGA training programs in schools, obtaining event operation licenses, and extending PSGA's brand into high-end international schools in mainland China [3][4]. Group 2: IP Strategy - The company is building a comprehensive IP strategy that encompasses both individual and organizational IPs, aiming to create a multi-faceted IP ecosystem that includes sports, entertainment, and cultural figures [4][5]. - The CR7 museum has become a significant cultural attraction, contributing to ticket sales and enhancing the company's brand recognition [5][6]. Group 3: Transformation and Innovation - The company is actively transforming its traditional manufacturing base by integrating IP into its operations, which helps address low profit margins in manufacturing while enhancing product value through IP [5][6]. - The company has registered a new brand and plans to expand its product matrix beyond apparel into areas like sports animation and functional fabrics, indicating a strategic pivot towards innovation [6][7]. Group 4: Vision and Identity - The company is redefining its identity from a mere manufacturer to a cultural platform, aiming to inspire youth through sports and education while fostering a sense of national pride [7][9]. - The ultimate vision is to utilize world-class IPs to ignite cultural confidence and showcase the capabilities of Chinese enterprises in storytelling and product excellence [8][9].

Core Insights - The company aims to transform from a traditional manufacturing entity into a cultural platform by leveraging high-profile IPs like Cristiano Ronaldo (CR7) and Paris Saint-Germain Academy (PSGA) to enhance its brand and market presence [1][7][9] Group 1: Strategic Partnerships - The collaboration with PSGA represents a significant opportunity for the company, allowing it to tap into youth sports education, co-branded product development, and event management [2][3] - The company plans a three-step approach to maximize value from the PSGA partnership, focusing on promoting PSGA training programs in schools, obtaining event operation licenses, and extending PSGA's brand into high-end international schools in mainland China [3][4] Group 2: IP Strategy - The company is building a comprehensive IP ecosystem that includes individual and organizational IPs, aiming to cover sports, entertainment, anime, and cultural celebrities [4][5] - The CR7 museum has become a significant tourist attraction, contributing to ticket sales and enhancing the company's brand recognition [5][6] Group 3: Transformation and Growth - The company is actively adapting its traditional manufacturing operations to meet market demands, including establishing production capabilities in Southeast Asia and investing in smart manufacturing and high-end functional fabrics [6][7] - The "IP + manufacturing" strategy is designed to address low profit margins in traditional manufacturing while enhancing profitability through IP value [6][7] Group 4: Vision and Identity - The company is redefining its identity, moving from a mere manufacturer to a cultural platform that integrates sports, education, and culture [7][9] - The ultimate goal is to ignite national cultural confidence through world-class IPs and showcase the capability of Chinese enterprises to tell compelling stories [7][8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24][27] Core Views - The company reported a slight improvement in revenue in Q2, with a year-on-year revenue decline narrowing to single digits. For H1 2025, revenue was 10.81 billion yuan, down 2.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million yuan, down 12.0% [1][3] - The traditional core business experienced a slight decline, while online sales maintained positive growth. The revenue from traditional core business in H1 2025 was down 7.2% year-on-year, with specific declines in writing instruments, student stationery, and office supplies [1][3] - The company is actively expanding its IP strategy and overseas markets, achieving overseas revenue of 560 million yuan, up 15.9% [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.56 billion yuan, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year [1][3] - The gross margin for Q2 was 18.3%, down 0.34 percentage points, primarily due to the decline in profitability from direct sales and retail stores [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.43 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively, with a diluted EPS of 1.55, 1.72, and 1.91 yuan [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 25.42 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.9% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.43 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [4] - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 19.9, 18.0, and 16.2 respectively [4][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year [3][4]. - The second quarter revenue was 5.56 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.04% year-on-year, while the net profit was 240 million yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is focusing on its IP and international expansion strategies, with significant growth in overseas revenue, which reached 560 million yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 19.5%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, with specific product categories showing varied performance in gross margins [5]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 5.15%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, despite an increase in non-operating income from government subsidies [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.44 billion yuan, 1.60 billion yuan, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 3.1%, 10.8%, and 10.4% [5].