招银国际发表研报指，网易发布去年末季业绩，总营收按年增长3%至275亿元，较市场一致预期低 4%，主要受游戏收入增速逊预期及游戏收入确认周期延长的影响；营业利润按年增长6%至83亿元，低 于一致预期6%。 该行仍较看好公司今年收入增长前景，主要基于去年末季合同负债按年实现34%的强劲增长；今年预计 多款重磅新品上线，包括《遗忘之海》等。考虑到收入确认周期有所延长，该行小幅下调集团今明两年 总营收预测1%至2%，并基于SOTP估值，将网易美股目标价从164美元微降至161.5美元，维持"买入"评 级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly technology stocks, is experiencing significant volatility and declining trading volumes, leading to investor uncertainty [3] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 12, the Hang Seng Index fell below 27,000 points, closing at 27,024 points, down 0.89%, with a trading volume of 127.2 billion HKD; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.68% to 5,407 points, with a trading volume of 35.8 billion HKD [3] - NetEase (09999.HK) reported disappointing annual results on February 11, leading to a 3.79% drop on February 12, which negatively impacted the overall performance of Hong Kong tech stocks, including Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) down 2.65% [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Analysts predict that upcoming earnings reports from tech stocks may also fall short of expectations, suggesting that investors should adopt a wait-and-see approach until earnings are confirmed [3] - Concerns over price wars and declining growth rates among some tech stocks have been raised, with NetEase's gaming slowdown causing worries about other gaming companies [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The main support for the Hong Kong stock market comes from technology (especially AI) and new consumption sectors, with ongoing discussions about the impact of new technologies on traditional business models [4] - There are over 400 companies currently in the IPO process in Hong Kong, with significant IPO lock-up expirations expected in 2026, potentially affecting market liquidity [5] - Short-term market adjustments may occur, but there is potential for upward recovery, with a mid-term profit growth forecast of 3% to 4%, which could push the Hang Seng Index towards 28,000 to 29,000 points [5]

Core Viewpoint - Citibank's report indicates that NetEase's Q4 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with total revenue growing by 3% year-on-year to 27.5 billion yuan, and adjusted EBIT increasing by 4.7% to 9.2 billion yuan, which is 5% and 8.5% lower than the bank's forecasts respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2025 reached 27.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% [1] - Adjusted EBIT for the same period was 9.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] - Online gaming revenue was below expectations, growing only 3.5% year-on-year due to a high base from the previous year and longer revenue recognition periods for more games [1] Group 2: Deferred Revenue and Game Dynamics - Deferred revenue growth accelerated, increasing by 5% quarter-on-quarter and 32% year-on-year [1] - Overall gaming momentum is improving, particularly for titles like "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, Citibank believes that the game pipeline is stronger, including expansions for "Diablo IV," "Shattered Isles," and "Infinity" [1] - The bank has slightly lowered its adjusted net profit forecast for 2026 by 2% but maintains an "outperform" rating with a target price of $150 for U.S. stocks [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant volatility, particularly in technology stocks, with the Hang Seng Index dropping to 27,024 points, down 0.89%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 1.68% [2] - NetEase's disappointing annual performance report has raised concerns among investors, leading to a 3.79% drop in its stock price, which has negatively impacted other tech stocks like Tencent and Alibaba [2][3] - Analysts suggest that upcoming earnings reports from tech companies may also underperform, and investors are advised to adopt a cautious stance until earnings are confirmed [2][3] Group 2 - The main support for the Hong Kong stock market comes from technology, especially AI, and new consumption sectors, with ongoing discussions about the impact of new technologies on traditional business models [4] - There are over 400 companies currently in the IPO application process in Hong Kong, with significant IPO unlocks expected in 2026, potentially affecting market liquidity [4] - Short-term market adjustments may occur, but there is potential for upward recovery, with projections suggesting the Hang Seng Index could rise to between 28,000 and 29,000 points if earnings growth stabilizes around 3% to 4% [4]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase reported its Q4 2025 unaudited financial results, showing a decline in net profit primarily due to increased expenses and investment losses, which fell short of market expectations [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, NetEase achieved net revenue of RMB 27.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3% [1]. - Gross profit for the same quarter was RMB 17.7 billion, up 8.7% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.24 billion, down 28% from RMB 8.77 billion in the same period last year, missing market expectations [1][2]. - Total operating expenses reached RMB 9.37 billion, a significant increase of 10.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company recorded an investment loss of RMB 1.67 billion, an increase of over RMB 1.1 billion compared to the previous year [1]. Business Segments - NetEase's main business segments include gaming and related value-added services, Youdao, NetEase Cloud Music, and other innovative businesses [3]. - Gaming and related value-added services generated RMB 92.1 billion in net revenue for 2025, a growth of over 10% [3]. - In Q4, gaming revenue was RMB 22 billion, accounting for 80% of total revenue, but fell short of market expectations of RMB 23.42 billion [3][4]. - The decline in gaming revenue was attributed to a lack of new game releases and decreased revenue from existing titles [3]. Future Prospects - NetEase is developing new games, including the open-world game "Forgotten Sea," expected to launch in Q3 2025, and a closed beta for the urban open-world game "Infinite" has shown positive results [6]. - The CEO emphasized that while AI tools lower the entry barrier for game development, they also raise the success threshold for commercial titles [7]. - In non-gaming segments, Youdao and NetEase Cloud Music reported Q4 net revenues of RMB 1.6 billion and RMB 2 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 16.8% and 4.7% [7].

Macro Commentary - In 2026, China's deflationary pressure continues to ease, with January CPI growth slowing to 0.2% due to the impact of the Spring Festival and food price fluctuations. Core inflation remains strong, driven by price increases in durable goods, travel services, and gold jewelry [2] - PPI exceeded market expectations again, with upstream price increases beginning to transmit to midstream and downstream sectors, particularly in the non-ferrous metals industry, while consumer goods PPI remains relatively weak [2] - It is anticipated that price levels will continue to rise moderately in 2026, driven by antitrust movements, AI-related investments, and rising global commodity prices, which will enhance corporate profitability and boost capital market performance in raw materials and cyclical industries [2] - CPI and PPI are expected to rebound from 0.1% and -2.6% in 2025 to 0.9% and 0.5% in 2026, respectively [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,266, up 0.31% for the day and 6.38% year-to-date. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose nearly 1% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased to 4,132, marking a "seven consecutive days" rise [4] - The performance of various sectors in the Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Property Index up 20.44% year-to-date [3] Company Commentary - NetEase (NTES US) reported 4Q25 earnings with total revenue growing 3% year-on-year to 27.5 billion RMB, which was 4% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations, primarily due to slower-than-expected growth in gaming revenue and extended revenue recognition periods [5] - Operating profit increased by 6% year-on-year to 8.3 billion RMB, falling short of consensus expectations by 6% [5] - Despite the revenue miss, the outlook for FY26E revenue growth remains positive, supported by a 34% year-on-year increase in contract liabilities in 4Q25 and the anticipated launch of several major new products in FY26 [5] - The target price for NetEase has been adjusted to $161.5 from $164.0, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that NetEase's revenue and operating profit for Q4 2025 are projected to be 5% lower than market consensus, with adjusted net profit expected to be 23% below consensus due to investment losses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - NetEase's deferred revenue shows strong growth of 34% [1] - The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 13.5 times for the next 12 months, which is approximately 0.7 standard deviations below its historical average [1] - UBS believes that historically low P/E ratios often correspond to regulatory or product cycle troughs, but NetEase is not in a similar situation, indicating limited downside potential for the stock price [1] Group 2: Positive Catalysts - Future positive catalysts are expected from the official progress of the dual primary listing plan and the launch of the new game "Forgotten Sea" in Q3 2026 [1] - UBS slightly lowers the target price for NetEase's U.S. stock from $185 to $180 and adjusts the target price for its Hong Kong stock to HKD 280.8, which corresponds to a projected P/E of 21 times for 2026 [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that NetEase's management emphasizes the company's role as a pioneer and beneficiary of artificial intelligence technology in the gaming sector, rather than being challenged by AI world models [1] Group 1: Company Developments - NetEase is in communication with regulatory authorities regarding its dual primary listing, having met the trading volume threshold with over 55% of its trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last year [1] - The management believes that a clear timeline for the dual listing is not yet established, but they consider it a matter of time [1] Group 2: Industry Environment - The gaming industry is currently in a favorable regulatory environment, with no preliminary discussions on imposing a consumption tax on games or altering the preferential income tax rates for high-tech companies based on R&D intensity [1] - Morgan Stanley notes that a longer deferred revenue cycle is a structural trend driven by increased user engagement [1] Group 3: Product Launch and Financial Outlook - The target launch date for the key game "Forgotten Sea" is set for the third quarter of this year [1] - Morgan Stanley sets a price target of $168 for NetEase's U.S. stock and maintains an "Overweight" rating [1]

恒指跌幅扩大至1%，科指现跌1.8%。科网股普跌，哔哩哔哩、网易、美团均跌约4%，百度、腾讯跌超 3%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that NetEase's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year to 27.5 billion yuan, which is in line with the firm's expectations but falls short of market expectations by 4% [1] - The non-GAAP operating profit margin is projected to increase by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 33.3%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the firm's expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected growth in marketing expenses and a greater-than-expected decline in general and administrative expenses [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit is expected to rise by 5% year-on-year, exceeding the firm's expectations by 1% [1] Group 2 - The firm has set a target price of $160 for NetEase's U.S. stock and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]