证券研究报告 网易 (NTES US) 4Q 收入低于预期，游戏递延周期增长 2026 年 2 月 12 日│美国 互联网 网易 4Q25 总营收同比+3%至 275 亿元，低于 VA 一致预期（下同）5%， 主因游戏收入递延周期增加。递延收入超预期 21%，环比提升 10 亿元。经 调整归母净利润同比下降 27%至 71 亿元，低于预期 23%，主因投资损益影 响，拼多多等股票投资减值金额较大。我们预计网易 1H 流水有望边际改善： ①《燕云》全球累计用户达 8000 万，26 年海外全端流水有望达到 20-30 亿元；②《遗忘之海》管理层表示 3Q 有望上线，2 月测试反馈优秀，题材 和美术风格具备差异化优势，我们预计 12 个月流水有望达 25-50 亿元；③ 其他重点储备：《无限大》1 月封闭测试符合预期，中式妖鬼题材自走棋《妖 妖棋》1 月获版号，ARPG 端游《归唐》关注度较高。当前网易估值尚处低 位，我们看好 26 年收入和利润释放，重申"买入"评级。 《燕云》海外放量在即，《遗忘之海》打开 26 年增量空间 4Q 游戏和增值服务收入同增 3%至 220 亿元，其中游戏收入同增 4%至 213 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index rising over 1%, driven by significant gains in computing power hardware stocks such as CPO and optical chips, with Tianfu Communication increasing by over 10% [1] - The Hong Kong market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1% and tech stocks declining, including NetEase which fell by 5% [1][3] Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.10% to 4127.79, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.48% to 14228.82, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.16% to 3322.67 [2] - The Hang Seng Index was reported at 27046.41, down by 0.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.51% to 5416.91 [4][3] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with lithium carbonate increasing by over 3%, while platinum and palladium saw declines [2][5] - The lithium carbonate price rose by 3.83% to 149,660, and nickel increased by 2.75% to 140,930 [6] AI and Technology Sector - The AI application concept stocks continued to adjust collectively, while AI model stocks like Zhipu and MiniMax-WP saw gains [1] - Zhipu announced a price increase of 30% for its AI coding subscription plan, and it is set to launch a new AI model, GLM-5, aimed at complex programming tasks [7][9] CPO Sector - The CPO sector showed strong performance with stocks like Tianfu Communication, Juguang Technology, and Zhishang Technology rising over 10%, reaching historical highs [10][11] - Lumentum reported receiving several hundred million dollars in CPO-related orders, with expected revenue of approximately $50 million by Q4 2026 [11] Tungsten Sector - The tungsten sector remained strong, with stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten hitting the daily limit, and prices for black tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate rising significantly [12][13] Currency Market - The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke the 6.90 mark for the first time since April 2023 [14]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase, raising its price target from $161 to $165, indicating positive investor sentiment towards the company's future performance [1][5]. Financial Performance - NetEase recently held its Q4 2025 earnings call, which provided insights into revenue growth, profit margins, and strategic developments, although the full transcript is not available [2][5]. - The current stock price of NetEase is $118.49, reflecting a decrease of 4.07% or $5.03 from the previous trading session [3][5]. - Over the past year, the stock reached a high of $159.55 and a low of $88.54, indicating significant volatility [3]. Market Position - NetEase has a market capitalization of approximately $75.63 billion, showcasing its significant presence in the tech industry [4][5]. - The trading volume for the day is 2,474,197 shares on the NASDAQ exchange, indicating active investor interest [4][5].

Core Insights - NetEase reported a total revenue of 112.6 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 7% [1] - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 37.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 27.5 billion yuan, a 3% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 6.2 billion yuan from 8.8 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Gaming Business - The gaming and related value-added services generated a net income of 92.1 billion yuan for the year, accounting for 81.8% of total revenue [1] - Online gaming net income reached 89.6 billion yuan, marking an 11% year-on-year growth, driven by classic titles like "Fantasy Westward Journey" and new releases such as "The Legend of Yan Yun" and "Marvel Contest of Champions" [1] - "The Legend of Yan Yun" has surpassed 80 million global users, and Blizzard's games returning to the Chinese market have set new annual revenue records [1] Other Business Segments - NetEase Youdao achieved a revenue of 5.9 billion yuan for the year, marking its first year of positive operating profit and cash flow [1] - NetEase Cloud Music reported a revenue of 7.8 billion yuan, slightly down from 8 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The innovation and other business segment generated a revenue of 6.8 billion yuan [1] - The company's R&D investment reached 17.7 billion yuan, exceeding 10 billion yuan for six consecutive years [1] Financial Performance - For the year 2025, NetEase's operating profit was 35.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a gross margin of 64.29% [2] - As of the end of 2025, the company had a net cash balance of 163.5 billion yuan and a net cash inflow from operating activities of 50.7 billion yuan [2] - The board announced an extension of the $5 billion stock repurchase plan until 2029, with approximately $2 billion repurchased by the end of 2025 [2] Market Challenges - NetEase is currently facing valuation pressure, with concerns regarding slowing growth in gaming revenue and high base profit margins for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [2] - The CEO emphasized that AI has become a core capability in their R&D and operations, systematically applied in game development and gameplay innovation [2]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.30% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,136.99 points with a trading volume of 70.29 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,177.97 points with a trading volume of 112.95 billion [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,294.57 points with a trading volume of 50.06 billion [2] External Market - The U.S. stock market saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.13% to 50,121.40 points, the S&P 500 down 0.34 points to 6,941.47 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% to 23,066.47 points [3] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.65% [3] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities highlighted the potential of AI video industrialization, recommending investment in companies with valuable IP assets, efficient content creation capabilities, and leading video model manufacturers [4] - CITIC Construction pointed out that the rapid development of AI technology is driving demand for high-end passive components, benefiting related metal new materials [5] - Huaxi Securities noted the acceleration of commercial aerospace, recommending low-orbit satellite components and chip suppliers due to the increasing pace of satellite launches [6] - Huatai Securities also indicated that the food and beverage sector is experiencing a seasonal peak, suggesting investment in quality leaders as the market stabilizes [7]

2月12日，A股三大股指集体高开，其中上证综指上涨5.0点，涨幅0.12%报4136.99点；深证成指上涨 17.03点，涨幅0.12%报14177.97点；沪深300指数上涨6.19点，涨幅0.13%报4720.01点；创业板指数上涨 9.84点，涨幅0.3%报3294.57点；科创50指数上涨8.5点，涨幅0.58%报1463.61点；算力（核心股）租赁 板块竞价走高，大位科技、特发信息一字涨停，优刻得涨超15%，金开新能、东方国信、青云科技、并 行科技、利通电子跟涨。 盘面上，市场焦点股百川股份（11天8板）低开5.53%，并购重组的金富科技（5天4板）低开0.98%、龙 韵股份（3板）低开2.40%，实控人变更的吉华集团（5天4板）低开3.67%、小崧股份（2板）低开 5.34%，传媒（核心股）板块欢瑞世纪（3板）竞价跌停、掌阅科技（3板）竞价涨停，算力（核心股） 租赁板块大位科技（3板）竞价涨停、特发信息（2板）竞价涨停，光伏（核心股）板块雅博股份（3 板）低开0.84%，化工股金牛化工（4天3板）低开4.55%。 企业新闻： 在个股层面，几则重磅公告引发市场关注：网易盘前发布的财报显示，2025年 ...

Group 1: Elon Musk's Ambitions - Elon Musk proposed the idea of building a factory on the Moon to produce AI satellites, aiming to gain a significant computational resource advantage over competitors [1] - Musk emphasized the necessity of going to the Moon for xAI to achieve superior computational capabilities, expressing excitement about the potential developments [1] - xAI is merging with SpaceX to advance plans for constructing AI data centers in outer space, although specific construction paths were not detailed [1] Group 2: NetEase Financial Performance - NetEase reported a total revenue of 112.6 billion yuan for 2025, with an operating profit of 35.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21% [2][3] - In Q4 2025, NetEase's net income reached 27.5 billion yuan, a 3% increase year-on-year, with gaming and related services contributing 22 billion yuan, up 3.4% [2] - The company invested 17.7 billion yuan in R&D for 2025, marking the sixth consecutive year of R&D spending exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] Group 3: AI Model Developments - DeepSeek is undergoing a gray test for a context length of up to 1 million tokens, significantly expanding its capabilities [4][6] - The latest DeepSeek model's knowledge base has been updated to May 2025, maintaining accuracy in non-networked states [6] - The AI model landscape is rapidly evolving, with new releases such as GLM-5 and Minimax 2.5, showcasing advancements in AI technology [21] Group 4: Alibaba's Strategic Investments - Alibaba's management is encouraging bold investments in Taobao Flash Sales, with plans to increase funding significantly over the next three years [8] - The initiative is focused on instant retail, indicating a strategic pivot towards enhancing e-commerce capabilities [8] Group 5: Bill Gates' Visit to China - Bill Gates made a surprise visit to Shanghai to engage in discussions on global health and development, focusing on collaboration with Chinese partners [9] - The visit aims to explore advancements in key areas such as infectious disease control and maternal and child health [9] Group 6: Retail Sector Updates - The founder of the Pang Donglai Group announced retirement plans, transitioning to an advisory role while the decision-making will be handled by a committee [13][15] - The Pang Donglai Group reported a sales increase of 38.71% for 2025, reaching a total of 23.53 billion yuan [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for NetEase, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - NetEase reported a total revenue increase of 3% year-over-year to RMB 27.5 billion in 4Q25, which was 4% below Bloomberg consensus estimates due to slower-than-expected games revenue growth and a prolonged revenue recognition period [1]. - Operating income grew by 6% year-over-year to RMB 8.3 billion, also falling short of consensus estimates by 6% [1]. - Contract liabilities increased by 34% year-over-year in 4Q25, suggesting a positive outlook for revenue growth in FY26, supported by several highly anticipated game launches [1][8]. - The target price for NetEase has been slightly adjusted to US$161.5 from the previous US$164.0, reflecting a 30.7% upside from the current price of US$123.52 [3][12]. Financial Performance - For FY26E, total revenue is projected to reach RMB 120.8 billion, with adjusted net profit expected at RMB 41.4 billion, reflecting a growth of 10.5% year-over-year [2][9]. - Gross margin is expected to improve to 64.8% in FY26E, while operating margin is projected to be 33.0% [9][10]. - The company has maintained a decent shareholder return of RMB 14.5 billion in 2025, which is approximately 3% of its market capitalization [8]. Business Segments - The online games segment is valued at US$142.1 billion, accounting for 88% of the total valuation, based on a 17x EV/EBIT multiple for FY26E [12]. - Youdao and NetEase Cloud Music are valued at US$0.7 billion and US$3.4 billion, respectively, based on industry-average multiples [12]. - The innovative businesses segment is valued at US$1.5 billion, with net cash contributing an additional US$13.8 billion to the overall valuation [12]. Market Position - NetEase's market capitalization stands at approximately US$78.7 billion, with an average trading volume of US$92.3 million over the past three months [4]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 11.3% over the past month and 13.2% over the past three months, indicating some volatility in its performance [5]. Future Outlook - Several highly anticipated game launches are scheduled for FY26, including "Sea of Remnants" and "YaoYaoQi," which are expected to drive revenue growth [1][8]. - The integration of AI into various phases of game development is expected to enhance quality and efficiency, positioning the company favorably in the competitive landscape [8].

Group 1 - Meta plans to invest over $10 billion in building a data center park in Indiana, providing 1 GW of power capacity to support AI projects and core social media operations, while hedge fund Pershing Square disclosed a stake in Meta representing 10% of its capital, believing the market underestimates AI's long-term potential [2][3] - Apple faces delays in upgrading its Siri virtual assistant, with multiple new features potentially postponed until iOS 26.5 or iOS 27 due to issues with query handling, response times, and accuracy [2] - ByteDance is reportedly developing an AI chip and negotiating with Samsung for production, aiming to produce at least 100,000 chips this year and gradually increase output to 350,000, although a spokesperson claimed the information is inaccurate [3] Group 2 - NetEase's Q4 2025 revenue reached 27.5 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell nearly 30% to 6.2 billion yuan, missing expectations due to increased sales expenses and investment losses [5] - Zhiyuan Technology launched its new flagship model GLM-5, integrating DeepSeek sparse attention mechanism, targeting programming and intelligent agent capabilities, with internal evaluations indicating performance close to Claude Opus 4.5 [5] - Huazhu Group is under scrutiny from the Beijing Consumer Association for potentially unfair terms in its membership service agreement, prompting the company to initiate a self-examination and commit to improving the consumer environment [6] Group 3 - Amazon received approval from the US FCC to deploy an additional 4,500 low-Earth orbit satellites, expanding its constellation to 7,700 to enhance space internet competition [8] - Cisco reported Q2 revenue of $15.3 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, with product revenue of $11.64 billion, driven by a surge in orders from AI hyperscalers [8] - Ford anticipates achieving a record revenue of $187.3 billion in 2025, but expects a net loss of $8.182 billion, a 239.17% year-on-year decline, primarily due to rising supply chain costs and increased R&D investments [9] Group 4 - Samsung Electronics announced the Galaxy S26 series launch on February 26, featuring the 2nm Exynos 2600 chip and a 200-megapixel camera in the Ultra model, with continued strong demand for memory chips expected until 2027 [12] - Toyota is set to launch a pure electric version of the Highlander for the North American market, targeting a range of 320 miles, with plans to guide users of fuel/mixed models to the Grand Highlander series [12] - LG Energy Solution announced the acquisition of a 49% stake in a Canadian energy storage battery factory from Stellantis to strengthen its energy storage business [13]

Group 1 - Xiaomi's legal department supports a car owner's rights after a road rage incident involving a Tesla driver, emphasizing the importance of protecting brand reputation and user rights [5][6][7] - ByteDance plans to produce 100,000 self-developed AI chips this year, with ambitions to increase production to 350,000, and is negotiating with Samsung for manufacturing [10][11] - Meizu's mobile phone business is reportedly facing dissolution, with indications of project halts and employee layoffs, although no large-scale layoffs have been confirmed yet [12][13] - Alibaba is increasing investments in Taobao's flash sales, with a focus on instant retail and a commitment to not worry about losses for the next three years [13][14] - TSMC reported a net profit of approximately 378.2 billion yuan for 2025, with plans for a capital budget of about 44.9 billion USD to expand production capacity [15][16] - Domestic AI models are rapidly evolving, with new releases from DeepSeek and Zhiyuan, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [18][19] Group 2 - xAI, founded by Elon Musk, is experiencing significant personnel changes, with two co-founders leaving within 48 hours, raising concerns about the company's stability [40][41][42] - Amazon has received approval to deploy 4,500 satellites as part of its plan to compete with SpaceX, aiming to provide satellite internet services [42][43][44] - New regulations in the U.S. require that electric vehicle charging stations funded by federal money be 100% manufactured in the U.S., which may hinder the development of the charging network [45][46] - OpenAI is collaborating with Samsung and SK Hynix to establish data centers in South Korea, reflecting the growing demand for AI infrastructure [47] - BYD has surpassed Ford in global sales, achieving 4.6 million units sold, marking a significant milestone in the automotive industry [48]