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瑞银写在中国互联网Q2财报发布后:主题、首选股及期权策略
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 13:56
瑞银研究部根据第二季度业绩更新了其中国互联网投资主题和行业首选。其中,鉴于低波动率和反向倾斜,瑞银建议投资者通过对携程、网易和 拼多多的看涨期权价差策略做多。 中国互联网公司第二季度财报季以截然不同的业绩和市场反应收官。财报发布后,瑞银中国互联网研究分析师 Kenneth Fong 在最新报告中更新 了他对行业的看法,并更新了最佳股票推荐。尽管由于电商巨头加大投资力度,2025 年该行业的盈利预期被下调,但市场情绪依然乐观,估值 倍数也随之上升。Kenneth 强调了该行业的五个关键主题: 增长分化:整体零售额增长稳健,但情感消费(游戏、音乐)继续跑赢线上实体商品,而线上实体商品的表现则优于线下实体商品。竞争稳定且 盈利预期较高的垂直行业领军企业盈利预期正在上调。 Q 电商竞争:非食品类目竞争预计将持续到第四季度,用户经济效益将出现结构性下降。然而,盈利影响似乎已基本计入当前市场预期。 瑞银在上周的报告《腾讯和快手 —— 第二季度盈利赢家及期权上涨潜力股》中,重点强调了腾讯和快手的上涨潜力。在本周的报告中,瑞银列 出了对携程、网易和拼多多而言具有吸引力的看涨期权结构。 携程 [9961 HK, TCOM US ...
张一鸣又出爆款,靠抖音神曲杀进前三,1亿年轻人被拿捏
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-04 04:28
Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of the music app "汽水音乐" (Soda Music), which has reached nearly 100 million monthly active users (MAU) and is positioned as a strong competitor against established players like Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music [3][5][14] Group 1: User Growth and Market Position - As of July 29, 2025, Soda Music's MAU reached 99.22 million, marking a 95.21% increase year-over-year, surpassing the 10-year-old咪咕音乐 (Migu Music) and approaching Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music [3][4] - In Q2 2025, Tencent Music reported 553 million MAU, while NetEase Cloud Music maintained approximately 200 million MAU [3] Group 2: Competitive Advantage - Soda Music's growth is significantly attributed to its integration with Douyin (TikTok), where 78% of user-generated content utilizes music from the app, creating a seamless transition for users [5][6] - The app focuses on signing emerging artists and producing original content, contrasting with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music, which primarily rely on established artists' music rights [7][14] Group 3: Marketing and User Engagement - The "看见音乐计划" (See Music Plan) launched by Douyin and Soda Music aims to support original music with a budget of 2.5 billion, promoting new songs and artists [7] - A notable example of this collaboration is the viral song "跳楼机" (Jumping Machine), which garnered over 15 billion views on Douyin and significantly boosted user engagement on Soda Music [7][10] Group 4: Business Model and User Demographics - Soda Music adopts a free-to-use model supported by advertisements, appealing to price-sensitive younger users who prefer free services over paid subscriptions [12][13] - The app's recommendation algorithm, powered by Douyin's data, effectively captures user preferences, leading to a high overlap with users' existing playlists on other platforms [12][13] Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite its success, Soda Music faces challenges related to copyright, lacking rights to major artists like Jay Chou, which could hinder long-term growth [14] - The app's current position as the third-largest music platform is stable, but competing with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music for market share remains a significant challenge [14]
8月新游数据:两周下载超1243万,腾讯《无畏契约》手游双端数据登顶;网易《命运:群星》显现爆款潜质;沐瞳弹幕射击新游表现出色
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-04 02:16
| | | | | 2025年7月末热门新游首月数据(国内) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宮 | 发布时间 | 游戏厂商 | 游戏名称 | 地区 (数量) | 下载是 | 预估收入(美元) | 备注 | | 1 | 7.22 | 灵犀游戏 | 神探诡事录 | 国版 | 66W+ | 121W+ | 新上 | | 2 | 7.23 | 天梯网络 | 米姐米姆哈 | 国版 | 124W+ | 51W+ | 新上 | | 3 | 7.23 | 烘干活 | 火影忍者:木叶高手 | 国版 | 161W+ | 32W+ | 新上 | | | | | 2025年8月热门新游数据(国内) | | | | | | 序 | 发布时间 | 游戏厂商 | 游戏名称 | 地区(数量) | 下载量 | 预估收入(美元) | 备注 | | 1 | 8.6 | 网易 | 灵兽大冒险 | 国服 | 99W+ | 444W+ | 新上 | | 2 | 8.7 | 智坑科技 | 问鼎三国 @ | 国版 | 184W+ | 3W+ | 新上 | | 3 | ...
这门生意偷偷火了,外国人根本“扛不住”
3月25日,广州一间游戏体验室内,苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆・库克的出现打破了行业的平静。 作为特邀嘉宾,他坐在屏幕前,提前体验了广州库洛科技有限公司开发的游戏《鸣潮》Mac版本及2.2版本。 试玩结束后,库克在其微博上特意 @库洛科技,留下"享受无与伦比的沉浸式游戏体验"的评价,这一互动瞬间将这家广州 本土游戏企业推向了公众视野的焦点。 很多人不知道的是,这款游戏在2024年上线之初就等登顶全球42个国家和地区的iOS游戏免费榜中位列榜首,首月海外流水 更是达到了6亿元。 在广州,这样的游戏企业并非孤例。广州市游戏行业协会的数据显示,2024年广州游戏企业海外营收达190.58亿元,占广 东省游戏出海总营收的45%,其中策略类游戏(SLG)在全球市场的占有率稳居前三。 外界更多关注互联网行业的其他赛道时,这片土壤上的游戏企业早已悄悄布局全球,用产品力拿下了中国游戏出海的"头把 交椅"。 有外国网友表示,"中国正在充分利用西方游戏开发的衰退,我对此感到非常兴奋。" 01 低调的全球玩家 翻开2024年游戏产业的成绩单,广州游戏产业营收规模达到惊人的1406.67亿元,占全国游戏产业总营收的43.2%,这一数 字足 ...
这门生意偷偷火了,外国人根本“扛不住”
凤凰网财经· 2025-09-03 13:58
3 月 25 日,广州一间游戏体验室内,苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆 ・ 库克的出现打破了行业的平静。 01 低调的全球玩家 作为特邀嘉宾,他坐在屏幕前,提前体验了广州库洛科技有限公司开发的游戏《鸣潮》 Mac 版本及 2.2 版本。 试玩结束后,库克在其微博上特意 @ 库洛科技,留下 " 享受无与伦比的沉浸式游戏体验 " 的评价,这一互动瞬间将这家广州本土游戏企业推向了公 众视野的焦点。 外界更多关注互联网行业的其他赛道时,这片土壤上的游戏企业早已悄悄布局全球,用产品力拿下了中国游戏出海的 " 头把交椅 " 。 很多人不知道的是,这款游戏在 2024 年上线之初就等登顶全球 42 个国家和地区的 iOS 游戏免费榜中位列榜首,首月海外流水更是达到了 6 亿 元。 有外国网友表示,"中国正在充分利用西方游戏开发的衰退,我对此感到非常兴奋。" 在广州,这样的游戏企业并非孤例。广州市游戏行业协会的数据显示, 2024 年广州游戏企业海外营收达 190.58 亿元,占广东省游戏出海总营收的 45% ,其中策略类游戏( SLG )在全球市场的占有率稳居前三。 翻开 2024 年游戏产业的成绩单,广州游戏产业营收规模达到惊人 ...
新游海外公测3天吸金预估超1700万,网易试图拿起IP“武器”抢占这条细分射击赛道
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-03 02:17
网易再战大射击赛道,这次似乎有点"搞头"! 8月28日,由Bungie官方授权,网易旗下泰坦工作室主导研发的首款"《命运》"IP手游《命运:群星》(《Destiny: Rising》)正式在海外160多个国家及地 区上线公测。 | | Destiny: Rising " 1st Mobile Shooter of DESTINY | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | STILEN.Y V | ☆关注应用 | 业 下载报告 | 联系方式 | | ■ 美国 ^ | 英文 ( … | | | 拉博 9355 | 盈利模式 | 应用内购买 免费游戏 | 变更训 | 搜索国家/地区 | | 0 | 皮精品推荐 | | App ID 9 | 1.1万个评分 | 分类榜 | | 全部地区 | 上架地区(163/164) | | 内购 | | 1593326563 | 4.90 | #2 | | 北美 | | | 10 | | 下载App | ★★★★★ | 游戏 | | ◎ 美国 ■■ 加拿大 | | | 项 | 首款"命运"IP ...
创纪录!南向资金年内净买超万亿港元,聚焦科技主线
券商中国· 2025-09-02 23:15
资金潮涌香江,港股核心资产备受关注。今年以来,港股科技板块凭借估值优势与成长确定性,率先引领中国 资产价值重估,成为全球资金增配中国科技的核心标的。截至9月2日收盘,南向资金2025年内净买入金额超 10000亿港元,创历史纪录。此前,阿里巴巴公布业绩之后大涨18%,带领港股科技股强势回暖。 作为港股龙头股"聚集地"的港股通科技ETF基金(159101),一键布局30只港股科技龙头股,今日正式上市,享受港股科 技股龙头回暖带来的机遇。 港股通科技ETF基金(159101)选取30只市值较大、研发投入较高且营收增速较好的科技龙头上市公司证券作为成份股。 成份股数量在同类型指数中最少,更聚焦于港股科技龙头企业、中国科技创新领军企业。它把港股中高纯度硬科技、高 弹性龙头集中在一起,前十大重仓股为腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、小米集团、美团、中芯国际、快手、比亚迪股份等。 科技巨头纷纷发布亮丽财报 二是全球资本再配置 :中国资产有望在"东稳西荡"的格局下成为全球资本逃离美元资产的避风港。港股市场的生态环境 已经开始发生质的变化,迎来了大量优质企业的上市潮,优质的中国资产是支撑本轮港股可持续走牛的基本面基础。当 前海外资金配置中 ...
一文看懂AI竞赛:王座更替,谁家的AI更招财
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-02 11:59
Group 1 - AI remains a capital-intensive sector, with model performance relying on parameters, data, and computing power, making capital expenditure a key indicator of AI strategy strength [1][7] - The fastest monetization applications of AI are in image and video generation, particularly in advertising and content creation, covering three main types of advertisers [1][11] - By the mid-2025 reporting season, nearly all internet companies with a market capitalization over 100 billion mentioned AI in their financial reports [1][2] Group 2 - Since the launch of ChatGPT, AI has transitioned from a technical slogan to real business applications, penetrating various revenue and cost segments such as advertising, video, subscriptions, and office services [2] - From December 1, 2022, to September 1, 2025, Tencent's market value increased by approximately 90% to 5 trillion yuan, while Alibaba returned to a market cap of 2 trillion yuan, and Xiaomi's market value surged by 439% to enter the "2 trillion club" [2] - The valuation changes are not solely driven by AI but also influenced by fundamentals, economic expectations, and policy impacts, with macroeconomic recovery and AI-related policies supporting valuation reassessment [3] Group 3 - Capital expenditures for Alibaba and Tencent in Q2 reached 38 billion yuan and 19.1 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 220% and 119% [7] - Alibaba's strategy includes a significant investment of 380 billion yuan over three years to build AI infrastructure, while its Q2 revenue was 247.6 billion yuan, showing a 2% year-on-year increase [7] - Baidu emphasized its "AI-first" strategy, with non-advertising core revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan, growing 34% year-on-year, but faced cash flow pressures with a negative cash flow of 4.7 billion yuan in Q2 [8] Group 4 - Image and video generation has become the fastest monetization track for AI, with companies like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and others launching video generation models [11] - Kuaishou reported over 250 million yuan in revenue from its AI video generation model "Keling" in Q2, with expectations to double its annual revenue forecast [11] - The education sector is also emerging as a significant AI application area, with companies like NetEase's Youdao showing a clear "education-first" path and achieving 800 million yuan in AI-related revenue, a 30% year-on-year increase [12] Group 5 - Mid-sized internet companies are focusing on vertical scenarios and increasing R&D investment to find more certain AI commercialization paths, with R&D investment typically exceeding 20% of revenue [14] - Kingsoft Office reported a revenue of 2.657 billion yuan, with a 62% year-on-year growth in its WPS 365 business, and R&D investment accounting for 36% of revenue [15] - Companies like Kunlun Wanwei and 37 Interactive Entertainment are embedding AI into their business processes, with significant revenue growth and application in various sectors [15]
满血网易,压不住点点互动
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-02 09:23
Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry is experiencing a shift in competitive dynamics, with NetEase facing significant challenges from emerging competitors like Diandian Interactive, which has rapidly gained market share and revenue, particularly in the mobile gaming sector [1][15][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gaming landscape has evolved from a duopoly of Tencent and NetEase to a more competitive environment with the emergence of Diandian Interactive, which has achieved substantial revenue growth [3][10][11]. - Diandian Interactive's revenue for 2024 is approximately 15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 155%, positioning it as a formidable competitor to NetEase [15]. - The Sensor Tower report indicates that as of July 2025, the top four mobile game publishers in China are Tencent, Diandian Interactive, NetEase, and miHoYo, with no changes in their rankings [17]. Group 2: NetEase's Challenges - Despite a strong performance in the summer gaming season, NetEase has been overshadowed by Diandian Interactive, which has successfully launched global hits like "Endless Winter" [1][16][20]. - NetEase's revenue for Q2 2025 was 27.9 billion yuan, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, with gaming revenue at 22.8 billion yuan, up 13.7% [21]. - The company has struggled to maintain its competitive edge, with only five games listed in the top 12 of the "2025 July China Evergreen Game List," compared to Tencent's twelve [24]. Group 3: Internal Issues - NetEase faces internal conflicts that have not been fully resolved, as evidenced by controversies surrounding game similarities and accusations of plagiarism among its titles [29][30]. - The company has attempted to diversify into the shooting game segment but has encountered difficulties in breaking through in a highly competitive market dominated by established titles [27][28]. - NetEase's failure to capitalize on the booming mini-game market has allowed competitors like Diandian Interactive to thrive, as the latter has effectively attracted casual gamers [32][36]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The gaming industry is projected to grow, with the domestic market expected to reach 325.8 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.53% increase year-on-year, indicating ongoing opportunities for growth [32]. - As competition intensifies, NetEase must enhance its strategies to reclaim its position in the market, particularly against the backdrop of Diandian Interactive's rapid ascent [36][37].
多层次、系统性政策支持为游戏产业健康发展注入确定性,聚焦游戏ETF(159869)布局窗口
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 06:37
2025年以来,多层次、系统性政策支持为游戏产业健康发展注入确定性。3月发布的《提振消费专项行动方案》,明确提出促进游戏、电竞及 其周边衍生品消费。4月份,商务部发文要推动从IP打造到游戏制作、发行以及海外运营的全产业链布局。北京、上海、广东、浙江、海南、 四川等地纷纷出台系列支持游戏产业发展的政策,为游戏企业的创新发展提供有力支持。 每日经济新闻 值得一提的是,游戏行业虽然仍由创新主导,但在新的大热玩法爆发之前,长青游戏,或者说老产品与经典IP仍然是一家游戏公司的"压舱 石"。在政策利好推动下,强化长线运营能力与加大新品供给成为企业增长双引擎。头部公司凭借经典IP和持续内容更新,构建起稳健业绩基 本盘。比如腾讯《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等产品持续平台化演进,提升用户参与度,支撑业绩增长;完美世界旗下运营近20年的《完美世界 经典版》端游,通过持续的技术迭代和社区建设,促使其在长期竞争中保持活力;新品布局方面,主要企业加快测试与上线节奏。网易积极拓 展单机游戏领域,旗下3A游戏《归唐》预告引发市场关注;游戏科学《黑神话:钟馗》、米哈游《崩坏:因缘精灵》等重磅新作陆续释出消 息,为市场注入新的增长预期。 国泰海通 ...