Core Viewpoint - US Treasury prices remained stable on November 13, following the longest government shutdown in history, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding firm at 4.08% [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, rose to its highest level in a month, indicating potential for significant future fluctuations [1] - Investors in the $30 trillion market are awaiting government reports for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction in its final meeting of the year [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - There is a divergence in the monetary market regarding expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1] - A senior European interest rate strategist from ING noted that the market's uncertainty about the Fed's next steps could lead to increased volatility in response to new inflation and employment data [1]

格隆汇11月13日｜美国国债价格大致稳定，但波动率指标显示未来几天可能出现剧烈波动，此前美国走 出了史上最长的政府停摆。10年期美国国债收益率保持坚挺，周四报4.08%，而根据与政策会议日期挂 钩的掉期数据显示，货币市场对下个月美联储降息25个基点的预期大致存在分歧。然而，衡量债券市场 波动性的ICE BofA MOVE Index在最近触及四年低点后，已跳升至一个月来的最高水平，这表明政府即 将发布的大量经济数据可能会刺激市场采取行动。这个价值30万亿美元的市场中的投资者，一直在等待 政府经济报告恢复公布，以获取有关美联储在今年最后一次会议上将利率带向何方的线索。荷兰国际集 团高级欧洲利率策略师 Michiel Tukker说，鉴于市场尚未完全确定美联储的下一步行动，任何新的通胀 和就业数据都可能推动曲线的前端波动。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - Global long-term bonds are under pressure, with developed markets like the US, UK, Japan, and France seeing long-term yields reach multi-year highs, including the UK 30-year bond yield hitting its highest level since 1998 and the US 30-year bond yield approaching 5% [1] - Japan's recent 30-year bond auction showed a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.31, slightly below the 12-month average of 3.38, providing temporary relief to the global bond market amid rising government spending [1][2] - The results of the Japanese bond auction led to buying across all maturities, causing long-term bond yields to retreat from decades-high levels, although analysts caution this is a tactical relief rather than a trend reversal [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns over high and rising fiscal deficits across countries are driving the demand for higher yields from long-term bond investors, with analysts noting that the increase in yields is primarily due to rising real rates rather than inflation fears [2][7] - The recent auction results improved market sentiment, but indicators still show cautious attitudes, with the tail spread widening slightly from the previous auction [6] - Political uncertainties, particularly regarding the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's potential leadership changes, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy and contributing to ongoing volatility in the bond market [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by the Federal Reserve's Daly is that the current fluctuations in the bond market are indicative of volatility rather than significant changes in how investors are pricing assets [1] Group 2 - The statement suggests that the bond market is experiencing instability, which may not necessarily reflect a fundamental shift in investor sentiment or valuation methods [1] - This perspective could imply that while there are movements in bond prices, they may not be driven by underlying economic changes or expectations [1] - The focus on volatility rather than pricing changes may influence how market participants approach investment strategies in the current environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market turbulence following President Trump's announcement of increased tariffs appears to have subsided, but the risk departments of major global banks remain cautious, implementing measures to mitigate potential losses while potentially sacrificing profits [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Strategies - Major banks like Bank of America, NatWest Markets, and Dutch Bank are taking precautionary measures such as daily risk inquiries, stress testing portfolios, and reducing swap positions to lower the risk of significant losses [1]. - Despite the recent calm in the markets, there are concerns about a potential new shock comparable to the one in April, particularly with the upcoming deadline for raising the U.S. federal debt ceiling and the expiration of Trump's tariff exemptions [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The volatility in the U.S. bond market surged to a two-year high in April, with both U.S. Treasuries and equities experiencing significant sell-offs, indicating a breakdown of the safe-haven role of U.S. bonds during stress periods [6][7]. - There are signs of a rebound in demand for longer-term bonds, as weak U.S. economic data has recently pushed up Treasury prices, while Japan's 30-year bond auction results were better than expected [5]. Group 3: Risk Management Practices - The uncertainty in the market has led to a reduction in positions by trading departments, with a focus on managing risks associated with potential volatility spikes, particularly in light of upcoming employment data [5][6]. - Risk management techniques such as scenario analysis and Value at Risk (VaR) are being employed to assess potential losses, but predicting market conditions remains challenging due to the unpredictable nature of current events [6].