由于美国11月通胀数据意外疲软，失业率飙升，市场预期美联储明年至少会降息两次，美国国债有望迎 来自去年11月以来的首次周线上涨。10年期美国国债收益率预计本周将下降约4个基点，而对政策较为 敏感的2年期美国国债收益率则跌幅更大，因为市场预期2026年的政策走向将更加鸽派。 尽管市场在上周美联储降息后已经对进一步降息持乐观态度，但数据显示美国失业率达到四年来的最高 水平，核心通胀率达到2021年初以来的最低年化速度，这进一步促使预期升温。 巴克莱银行美国利率策略主管Anshul Pradhan表示："尽管最新的非农就业数据可能比往常波动更大，但 考虑到政府长期停摆，失业率的进一步上升将表明降息速度应比目前定价的速度更快。"他建议持有2年 期美国国债。 货币市场目前暗示明年将有两次降息，每次降息幅度为25个基点，第三次降息的可能性为40%。市场预 期宽松政策将进一步扩大，促使2年期美国国债收益率与10年期美国国债收益率之间的利差扩大至67个 基点，创下自2022年1月以来的最大收盘价差距。 虽然下一次重大数据发布要等到1月份才会进行，但特朗普宣布圣诞节前夕和12月26日为联邦政府假 日，这给财政部12月24日的债 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury prices remained stable on November 13, following the longest government shutdown in history, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding firm at 4.08% [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, rose to its highest level in a month, indicating potential for significant future fluctuations [1] - Investors in the $30 trillion market are awaiting government reports for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction in its final meeting of the year [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - There is a divergence in the monetary market regarding expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1] - A senior European interest rate strategist from ING noted that the market's uncertainty about the Fed's next steps could lead to increased volatility in response to new inflation and employment data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury prices remain stable, but volatility indicators suggest potential significant fluctuations in the coming days following the longest government shutdown in history [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains strong at 4.08% as of Thursday [1] - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, as indicated by swap rates linked to policy meeting dates [1] Group 2: Volatility Indicators - The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, has risen to its highest level in a month after recently hitting a four-year low, indicating that upcoming economic data releases may prompt market reactions [1] - Investors in the $30 trillion market are awaiting the resumption of government economic reports to gain insights into the Federal Reserve's direction for interest rates in its final meeting of the year [1] Group 3: Expert Insights - Michiel Tukker, a senior European rates strategist at ING, notes that the market remains uncertain about the Federal Reserve's next steps, suggesting that any new inflation and employment data could lead to increased volatility at the front end of the yield curve [1]

Group 1 - Global long-term bonds are under pressure, with developed markets like the US, UK, Japan, and France seeing long-term yields reach multi-year highs, including the UK 30-year bond yield hitting its highest level since 1998 and the US 30-year bond yield approaching 5% [1] - Japan's recent 30-year bond auction showed a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.31, slightly below the 12-month average of 3.38, providing temporary relief to the global bond market amid rising government spending [1][2] - The results of the Japanese bond auction led to buying across all maturities, causing long-term bond yields to retreat from decades-high levels, although analysts caution this is a tactical relief rather than a trend reversal [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns over high and rising fiscal deficits across countries are driving the demand for higher yields from long-term bond investors, with analysts noting that the increase in yields is primarily due to rising real rates rather than inflation fears [2][7] - The recent auction results improved market sentiment, but indicators still show cautious attitudes, with the tail spread widening slightly from the previous auction [6] - Political uncertainties, particularly regarding the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's potential leadership changes, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy and contributing to ongoing volatility in the bond market [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by the Federal Reserve's Daly is that the current fluctuations in the bond market are indicative of volatility rather than significant changes in how investors are pricing assets [1] Group 2 - The statement suggests that the bond market is experiencing instability, which may not necessarily reflect a fundamental shift in investor sentiment or valuation methods [1] - This perspective could imply that while there are movements in bond prices, they may not be driven by underlying economic changes or expectations [1] - The focus on volatility rather than pricing changes may influence how market participants approach investment strategies in the current environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market turbulence following President Trump's announcement of increased tariffs appears to have subsided, but the risk departments of major global banks remain cautious, implementing measures to mitigate potential losses while potentially sacrificing profits [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Strategies - Major banks like Bank of America, NatWest Markets, and Dutch Bank are taking precautionary measures such as daily risk inquiries, stress testing portfolios, and reducing swap positions to lower the risk of significant losses [1]. - Despite the recent calm in the markets, there are concerns about a potential new shock comparable to the one in April, particularly with the upcoming deadline for raising the U.S. federal debt ceiling and the expiration of Trump's tariff exemptions [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The volatility in the U.S. bond market surged to a two-year high in April, with both U.S. Treasuries and equities experiencing significant sell-offs, indicating a breakdown of the safe-haven role of U.S. bonds during stress periods [6][7]. - There are signs of a rebound in demand for longer-term bonds, as weak U.S. economic data has recently pushed up Treasury prices, while Japan's 30-year bond auction results were better than expected [5]. Group 3: Risk Management Practices - The uncertainty in the market has led to a reduction in positions by trading departments, with a focus on managing risks associated with potential volatility spikes, particularly in light of upcoming employment data [5][6]. - Risk management techniques such as scenario analysis and Value at Risk (VaR) are being employed to assess potential losses, but predicting market conditions remains challenging due to the unpredictable nature of current events [6].