Core Viewpoint - OCBC maintains its expectation of three rate cuts in 2023, each by 25 basis points, but delays the first cut from Q2 to Q3 due to the current economic conditions [1][4]. Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, lower than the expected 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase in overall CPI decreasing from 2.4% to 2.3% [2]. - Housing prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to over half of the overall increase, while energy prices rose, offsetting declines in gasoline prices [2]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth remains at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation in core services, while core goods prices have turned positive with a growth of 0.13% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, which is above market expectations but not robust [3]. - The unemployment rate remains at a cyclical high of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month [3]. - The job vacancy rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a gradual easing of labor market tightness, with the job-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 1.02, suggesting potential impacts on unemployment if vacancies continue to decline [3]. Market Expectations - Market concerns about a U.S. recession have significantly eased, with the probability of recession dropping from 65% in early April to 38% currently [4]. - Interest rate futures reflect a cooling of rate cut expectations, with only 54 basis points of cuts priced in for the year, down from over 100 basis points in April [4]. - The expectation for a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting has been fully priced out, with only a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [4]. Treasury Yield Predictions - OCBC has slightly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields due to the delayed rate cut expectations and improved market sentiment, but maintains a medium-term outlook of moderate decline [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the U.S. economy is not in a full recession, there are clear signs of slowing growth and persistent core inflation [5]. - Future economic data will be closely monitored, particularly regarding labor market conditions and service inflation, which could trigger policy adjustments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank predicts a significant slowdown in the US economic growth to 1.4% for this year, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024 [1] Economic Outlook - The bank's investment strategy managing director, Vasu Menon, highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's 10% universal tariffs and erratic trade policies, which may impact the US economy and businesses in the coming months [1] - There is considerable economic uncertainty that has weakened confidence in US assets, as indicated by surveys showing a decline in both business and consumer confidence [1] Data Interpretation - Current soft data regarding economic performance raises questions about whether it will translate into significant hard data weakness, potentially leading to an economic recession [1]

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) indicates that while global risk assets may continue to experience volatility in the short term, opportunities still exist [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Concerns regarding growth and inflation, along with the unpredictability of Trump's policies, may create market tension [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes an increased allocation to equities, with China identified as a preferred market [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Selective opportunities are present in the U.S. stock market and other Asian markets [1] - Singapore is highlighted as an attractive investment destination due to its low valuations and appealing dividend yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of confirming the sustainability of stock trends for successful short-term investing, highlighting the need for sound fundamentals and positive earnings estimates to maintain momentum in stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (OVCHY) has shown a solid price increase of 8.5% over the past 12 weeks, indicating strong investor interest [4]. - The stock has also increased by 3.7% over the last four weeks, suggesting that the upward trend is still intact [5]. - Currently, OVCHY is trading at 80.5% of its 52-week high-low range, indicating a potential breakout opportunity [5]. Group 2: Fundamental Strength - OVCHY holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, which are critical for near-term price movements [6]. - The stock has an Average Broker Recommendation of 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting high optimism from the brokerage community regarding its near-term performance [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article suggests using the "Recent Price Strength" screen to identify stocks like OVCHY that are on an uptrend supported by strong fundamentals [3]. - It also mentions that there are over 45 Zacks Premium Screens available for investors to find stocks that align with their investment strategies [8].

Core Viewpoint - Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (OVCHY) has received a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) upgrade due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock price [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Rating System - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in a company's earnings picture, tracking EPS estimates from sell-side analysts through a consensus measure known as the Zacks Consensus Estimate [2]. - The Zacks rating upgrade reflects optimism about the earnings outlook for Oversea-Chinese Banking, which could lead to increased buying pressure and a rise in stock price [4][6]. Impact of Earnings Estimate Revisions - Changes in future earnings potential, as indicated by earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, influenced by institutional investors who adjust their valuations based on these estimates [5]. - For Oversea-Chinese Banking, rising earnings estimates signify an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to drive the stock price higher [6]. Earnings Estimate Data - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Oversea-Chinese Banking is projected to earn $2.53 per share, reflecting a 9.5% increase from the previous year's reported figure [9]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has risen by 5.6%, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [9]. Zacks Rank System Overview - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a proven track record of Zacks Rank 1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places Oversea-Chinese Banking in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [11].

Core Viewpoint - Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (OVCHY) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [3]. - Rising earnings estimates for Oversea-Chinese Banking suggest an improvement in the company's underlying business, likely leading to higher stock prices as investors respond positively to this trend [3]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, Oversea-Chinese Banking is expected to earn $2.41 per share, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the previous year [5]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased by 2.8%, indicating a trend of analysts raising their earnings estimates [5]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [4]. - The upgrade of Oversea-Chinese Banking to a Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [6].

When it comes to short-term investing or trading, they say "the trend is your friend." And there's no denying that this is the most profitable strategy. But making sure of the sustainability of a trend to profit from it is easier said than done.Often, the direction of a stock's price movement reverses quickly after taking a position in it, making investors incur a short-term capital loss. So, it's important to ensure that there are enough factors -- such as sound fundamentals, positive earnings estimate rev ...

When it comes to short-term investing or trading, they say "the trend is your friend." And there's no denying that this is the most profitable strategy. But making sure of the sustainability of a trend to profit from it is easier said than done.The trend often reverses before exiting the trade, leading to a short-term capital loss for investors. So, for a profitable trade, one should confirm factors such as sound fundamentals, positive earnings estimate revisions, etc. that could keep the momentum in the st ...