Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve official Williams describes the labor market as experiencing a "moderate and gradual cooling," while still remaining robust overall [1] Labor Market Conditions - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, indicating a marginal rise in joblessness [1] - The downward revision of employment growth data for May and June is highlighted as a significant focus of the recent report [1] Interest Rate Outlook - Williams expresses caution regarding the market's high expectations (up to 80%) for a rate cut in September, indicating that he does not fully endorse this outlook [1] - He acknowledges the challenges faced by market participants and policymakers alike in interpreting signals from the economy [1] Economic Growth Projections - The expectation is set for the U.S. economic growth to slow to approximately 1% this year, with a potential recovery anticipated by 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months, which is better than market expectations but below the 12-month average of 149,000 jobs per month [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department significantly revised down the employment data for March and April, reducing the combined job growth for these two months by 95,000 [1] - Employment growth in May was primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, which collectively added 126,000 jobs [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing and retail sectors, which are closely tied to trade, showed signs of weakness, with manufacturing losing 8,000 jobs and retail shedding 6,500 jobs [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in May was $36.24, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The cautious sentiment surrounding the May employment data reflects businesses' uncertainty regarding trade policies and economic growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank predicts a significant slowdown in the US economic growth to 1.4% for this year, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024 [1] Economic Outlook - The bank's investment strategy managing director, Vasu Menon, highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's 10% universal tariffs and erratic trade policies, which may impact the US economy and businesses in the coming months [1] - There is considerable economic uncertainty that has weakened confidence in US assets, as indicated by surveys showing a decline in both business and consumer confidence [1] Data Interpretation - Current soft data regarding economic performance raises questions about whether it will translate into significant hard data weakness, potentially leading to an economic recession [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has announced that the Renminbi has become the fourth largest payment currency and the third largest trade financing currency globally, highlighting the acceleration of the Renminbi's internationalization process [1] - The increasing international use of the Renminbi is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Renminbi assets, drawing in foreign investment and providing opportunities for domestic financial institutions to expand cross-border operations [1] Group 2 - On April 23, spot gold prices fell below $3,300 per ounce, experiencing a daily drop of 2.4%, which is a $200 decline from the previous historical peak [2] - The significant drop in gold prices may be influenced by market sentiment, the performance of the US dollar, or changes in macroeconomic expectations, potentially impacting gold-related stocks and overall market risk appetite [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced an adjustment to the trading fees for gold futures contracts, setting the fee for the AU2506 contract at 20 yuan per hand, effective from April 25 [3] - The increase in trading costs may suppress speculative trading in the short term, leading to decreased market activity and affecting short-term price fluctuations in gold futures [3] Group 4 - The International Monetary Fund has revised its forecast for US economic growth in 2025 down to 1.8%, a reduction of 0.9 percentage points from its January prediction, marking the largest downward adjustment among developed economies [4] - The slowdown in US economic growth is expected to weaken domestic consumption and investment demand, potentially leading to valuation adjustments in the US stock market and altering global capital flows [4]