Core Viewpoint - PulteGroup, Inc. reported a decline in net income for the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting challenges in the housing market despite a disciplined business approach and significant investments in land acquisition and development [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported net income of $502 million, or $2.56 per share, for Q4 2025, down from $913 million, or $4.43 per share, in the same period last year [1][2]. - Home sale revenues for Q4 2025 were $4.5 billion, a decrease of 5% compared to the prior year, driven by a 3% decline in closings to 7,821 homes and a 1% decrease in average sales price to $573,000 [3][4]. - For the full year 2025, PulteGroup delivered 29,572 homes and generated $16.7 billion in home sale revenues, with a net income of $2.2 billion [2]. Cost and Expenses - The reported gross margin for home sales in Q4 2025 was 24.7%, down from 27.5% in the prior year, which included land impairment charges of $35 million [4]. - Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses for Q4 2025 were $389 million, or 8.7% of home sale revenues, compared to $196 million, or 4.2% of revenues in Q4 2024 [5]. Orders and Backlog - Net new orders for Q4 2025 increased by 4% to 6,428 homes, with a total value of $3.5 billion, remaining comparable to the previous year [6]. - The company's backlog at the end of Q4 2025 totaled 8,495 homes, valued at $5.3 billion [6]. Financial Services - The financial services segment generated pre-tax income of $35 million in Q4 2025, down from $51 million in the same period last year, impacted by lower closing volumes and a decrease in mortgage capture rate to 84% [7]. Shareholder Actions - In Q4 2025, PulteGroup repurchased 2.4 million common shares for $300 million, totaling 10.6 million shares repurchased for the year at a cost of $1.2 billion [8]. Cash Position - The company ended Q4 2025 with $2.0 billion in cash and a debt-to-capital ratio of 11.2% [8].

More consequential for PulteGroup's stock will be any guidance from the builder for the typically busy spring season, which kicks off in late February. ...

Core Viewpoint - PulteGroup Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 29, with anticipated declines in both earnings per share (EPS) and total revenues compared to the previous year [1][2] Revenue Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PulteGroup's fourth-quarter EPS has decreased to $2.78, reflecting a 20.6% decline from the year-ago EPS of $3.50 [2] - Total revenues are projected at $4.31 billion, indicating a 12.4% year-over-year decline, primarily due to ongoing affordability challenges in the housing market and high mortgage rates [2][3] Home Closings and Segment Performance - Home closings are expected to be between 7,200 and 7,600 units, down from 8,103 units a year ago, with a predicted decline of 8.3% year over year to 7,429 units [4] - Homebuilding revenues are forecasted to decrease 12.2% year over year to $4.22 billion, while Financial Services revenues are expected to drop 4.4% to $110 million [5] Pricing and Margins - The average selling price (ASP) for the quarter is anticipated to be between $560,000 and $570,000, down from $581,000 a year ago, with a predicted decrease of 3.3% year over year to $561,700 [6] - Home sales gross margin is expected to be between 25.5% and 26%, down from 27.5% in the previous year, with SG&A expenses projected to rise to between 9.5% and 9.7% [9] Orders and Backlogs - Net new orders are expected to decline by 0.9% year over year to 6,114 units, while total backlog is projected to decrease by 15.6% to 8,572 units, with a total backlog value of $5.49 billion, down 15.5% year over year [10] Earnings Prediction - The model does not predict an earnings beat for PulteGroup this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of +2.10% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [11]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that PulteGroup (PHM) will report quarterly earnings of $2.78 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 20.6%, with anticipated revenues of $4.31 billion, a decrease of 12.4% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this period [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Forecasts - Analysts estimate 'Homebuilding- Home sale revenues' at $4.16 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of -11.7% [5]. - 'Revenues- Financial Services' are projected to reach $107.17 million, suggesting a decline of 6.9% year over year [5]. - 'Revenues- Homebuilding' is expected to be $4.20 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of -12.6% [5]. Additional Key Metrics - 'Homebuilding- Land sale revenues' are estimated at $58.60 million, a significant decline of 40.9% from the previous year [6]. - The 'Average Selling Price - Total' is projected to be $564.19, down from $581.00 a year ago [6]. - 'Net New Orders in Units - Total' is expected to reach 5,967, compared to 6,167 in the same quarter last year [6]. Backlog and Closings - The consensus for 'Unit Backlog - Total' is 8,439, down from 10,153 a year ago [7]. - Analysts predict 'Closings (units) - Total' at 7,416, compared to 8,103 in the previous year [7]. - The estimated 'Active Communities' is 1,002, up from 960 in the same quarter last year [7]. Order Value and Backlog - The estimate for 'Net New Orders (Value) - Total' stands at $3.27 billion, down from $3.51 billion in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Backlog Value - Total' is expected to be $5.32 billion, compared to $6.49 billion a year ago [8]. Financial Services Performance - Analysts project 'Income / (loss) before income taxes- Financial Services' to reach $46.52 million, down from $50.67 million in the same quarter last year [9]. - PulteGroup shares have returned +5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.2% change [9].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for PulteGroup due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - PulteGroup is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.78 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 20.6% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $4.31 billion, down 12.4% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analyst expectations [4]. - A positive Earnings ESP of +2.10% suggests recent bullish sentiment among analysts, although the stock holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Earnings Surprise History - PulteGroup has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +3.50% in the most recent quarter [13][14]. Industry Context - M/I Homes, a competitor in the homebuilding sector, is expected to report earnings of $3.88 per share, down 17.6% year-over-year, with revenues of $1.16 billion, a decrease of 3.4% [18][19]. - M/I Homes has an Earnings ESP of -11.42% and has not beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, indicating challenges in the industry [20].

Core Viewpoint - PulteGroup is facing a projected decline in earnings and revenue for the upcoming quarter, with significant decreases anticipated compared to the previous year [2][3]. Company Performance - PulteGroup's stock closed at $126.81, down 2.63% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500, which fell by 2.06% [1]. - Over the past month, PulteGroup's shares have increased by 9.34%, outperforming the Construction sector's gain of 7.13% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.63% [1]. Earnings Estimates - The upcoming earnings release is scheduled for January 29, 2026, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of $2.78, reflecting a 20.57% decrease from the same quarter last year [2]. - The revenue forecast for the same quarter is $4.31 billion, indicating a 12.42% decline compared to the prior year [2]. Full Year Projections - For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $11.34 per share and revenue of $17.01 billion, showing changes of -22.8% and 0% respectively from the previous year [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Recent changes in analyst estimates for PulteGroup are crucial as they reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - PulteGroup is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 11.7, which is below the industry average of 12.2 [6]. - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.06, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.79, indicating a more favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [7]. Industry Context - The Building Products - Home Builders industry, part of the Construction sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 242, placing it in the bottom 2% of over 250 industries [8]. - The Zacks Industry Rank assesses industry strength based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with higher-ranked industries outperforming lower-ranked ones [8].

Group 1 - The increase in the 10-year Treasury yield is leading to higher mortgage rates, negatively impacting home-building related stocks [1] - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF experienced a 1.5% decline, marking its largest percentage drop since January 7 [1] - Major home builders such as D.R. Horton reported flat earnings, while Lennar and PulteGroup saw declines of 0.8% and 1.5% respectively [1] Group 2 - Builder stocks had previously benefited from optimism due to a decline in mortgage rates earlier in the month [2] - This decline in mortgage rates was influenced by a statement from President Donald Trump regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchasing mortgage-backed securities [2]

Core Viewpoint - BofA analyst Rafe Jadrosich has raised the price target for PulteGroup (PHM) to $145 from $135 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares, indicating a positive outlook despite anticipated challenges in the homebuilding sector [1] Group 1: Price Target and Rating - The price target for PulteGroup has been increased to $145 from $135 [1] - The firm maintains a Buy rating on PulteGroup shares, suggesting confidence in the company's performance [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Challenges - Homebuilder stocks have experienced a significant rally year-to-date after underperforming the market in 2025 [1] - The analyst highlights several challenges that may impact the homebuilding sector, including weaker employment and migration trends, ongoing inflation, and a competitive selling environment due to high new and resale inventory [1] - These factors are expected to pressure fundamentals through 2026, leading to a "reset year for homebuilders" [1]

Company Overview - PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) is recognized as one of the undervalued cyclical stocks to invest in, with a positive outlook from Wall Street [1] - The company operates in the homebuilding business in the US [4] Analyst Ratings - RBC Capital has reiterated a Hold rating on PulteGroup, lowering the price target from $112 to $111 [1] - Citizens has maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $145 [1] Market Conditions - RBC Capital expresses caution regarding the housing sector in early 2026 due to challenges in housing affordability, expecting a potential inflection point later in the year [2] - The nonresidential market faces challenges from policy changes, tariffs, and interest rates [2] Revenue Mix and Competitive Edge - Citizens highlights PulteGroup's revenue mix, which focuses on move-up and adult buyers, allowing the company to navigate mortgage rate volatility and affordability issues [3] - Approximately two-thirds of PulteGroup's average annual sales come from move-up and active adult buyers, providing a competitive advantage [3]

Core Viewpoint - PulteGroup's stock experienced a significant increase of 7.3% to $132.2, driven by optimism regarding housing affordability improvements in the U.S. [1][2] Company Performance - PulteGroup is projected to report quarterly earnings of $2.79 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 20.3%. Revenue is expected to be $4.31 billion, down 12.4% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate for PulteGroup has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a lack of upward revisions in earnings estimates [4]. Industry Context - PulteGroup operates within the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry, which includes other companies like Century Communities [5]. - Century Communities is also facing challenges, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.39, representing a year-over-year decline of 60.2% [6].