Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report highlights Qualcomm's (QCOM.US) strategic shift from a heavy reliance on smartphone business to diversification into PC (especially high-performance AI-enabled AIPC), automotive chips, and IoT, showcasing different growth dynamics and future drivers, which is expected to lead to robust growth and exceed Wall Street's expectations for Q3 and FY2025 [1][2] Qualcomm's Business Diversification - Qualcomm's revenue composition is increasingly diversified, covering smartphones, PCs, automotive electronics, and IoT, with smartphones remaining the largest segment driven by Snapdragon chips and 5G modem patents [2][4] - The company is benefiting from the unexpected strong demand for AI-enabled high-end smartphones, particularly in flagship Android devices, achieving low double-digit year-over-year growth despite a slowdown in the overall smartphone market [2][4] Edge AI Strategy - Qualcomm's core strategy revolves around Edge AI, deploying AI models directly on local devices for real-time processing, which reduces latency and bandwidth usage [3] - The PC segment is emerging as a new focus for Qualcomm's Edge AI strategy, particularly with the introduction of ARM-based platforms like Oryon CPU and NPU, targeting the AI laptop market [3] Automotive and IoT Growth - Qualcomm's automotive chip business has shown impressive growth, maintaining approximately 30% growth driven by the digitalization and electrification trends in the automotive industry, with over $30 billion in orders [4] - The IoT segment, covering wearables, AR/VR, smart home, and industrial IoT, is also experiencing stable growth, contributing 20-40% of Qualcomm's revenue and growing faster than the core smartphone business [4] Resilience and Valuation - Qualcomm's diversification strategy enhances its resilience against market fluctuations, allowing it to maintain revenue guidance even if it loses major clients like Apple [4][7] - Morgan Stanley has reiterated a bullish stance on Qualcomm, raising the 12-month target price from $190 to $200, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth potential and the unique defensive attributes of its diversified business model [2][6][9] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is viewed positively, with a focus on opportunities in high-performance AI chips, automotive electronics, and edge computing, where Qualcomm's expertise positions it uniquely [10] - Qualcomm's technology leadership in Edge AI across multiple sectors, including smartphones, automotive, and IoT, is expected to gain greater market recognition, enhancing its valuation [10] Investment Considerations - Qualcomm is seen as a balanced investment choice, offering both defensive characteristics and growth potential, with a valuation that has not yet fully reflected its long-term growth prospects [11]

Investment Rating - The report gives Qualcomm an "Overweight" rating for the first time [5][15]. Core Views - Qualcomm is a global leader in wireless communication technology, with mobile chips as its core business. The company is expected to maintain its leading position in high-end smartphone SoC and smart cockpit SoC markets, while also expanding its presence in AI smart glasses and data center CPU businesses, which may become a second growth curve in the long term [5][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qualcomm was founded in 1985 and went public in 1991. The company focuses on mobile, IoT, and automotive sectors, with mobile business accounting for 63.81% of total revenue in FY2024, generating $24.863 billion [1][38]. Technology and Patent Strategy - Qualcomm builds a strong patent moat through a combination of self-research and acquisitions, holding approximately 5,600 families of 5G SEP patents, ranking second globally. The technology licensing business is the second-largest source of revenue and profit, maintaining a pre-tax profit margin of over 60% for nearly a decade [2][43]. Business Growth Opportunities - The smartphone market is showing weak recovery, but IoT and automotive businesses are expected to create a second growth curve. In IoT, Qualcomm is enhancing its presence in PC and smart glasses markets, with a forecasted revenue growth of 20% in FY2025. In automotive, the company is expanding its share in smart cockpit and advanced driving chips, with projected revenue growth of 34% in FY2025 [3][12]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Qualcomm's net profits for FY2025-2027 to be $10.819 billion, $11.506 billion, and $12.477 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 6.7%, 6.3%, and 8%. The current price corresponds to a PE of 16X, 15X, and 14X for FY2025-2027, which is below the average PE of comparable companies [5][6][14]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Qualcomm is positioned as a leader in the smartphone SoC market, holding a 59% market share in the high-end Android smartphone chip market in 2024. However, the company faces challenges from Apple's self-developed baseband chips, which are expected to significantly reduce Qualcomm's revenue from Apple by 2027 [1][4][11].