证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 海外推出股票 RWA，国内无人物流产业深化 计算机周观察 20250706 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 稳定币&RWA 海内外同步推进，无人物流产业化进展不断，AI 大模型、应用发 展持续推进。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 284 | 5.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3465.4 | 3.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3049.4 | 3.7 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.8 16.1 64.0 相对表现 2.8 10.6 48.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 1、《AI 及无人化聚焦落地，重视稳 定币及 RWA 金融创新——计算机行 业 2025 年 中 期 投 资 策 略 》 2025-06-30 2、《香港虚拟资产服务相关牌照梳 理——计算机周观察 20250629》 2025-06-29 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that JPMorgan Chase has initiated coverage on Qifu Technology (QFIN.US) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of $65, indicating approximately 50% upside potential from the current stock price, corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 7.5 times for 2026 [1] - Qifu Technology is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% in adjusted EPS from 2024 to 2027, the highest among similar institutions covered by JPMorgan in Greater China [1] - The adjusted return on equity (ROE) for Qifu Technology is projected to increase from 15.7% in 2024 to 24.6% in 2027, driven by an expansion in the proportion of light capital business and optimization of financing costs [1] Group 2 - The business model of Qifu Technology shows an increase in the proportion of light capital loans from 44% in 2023 to 53% in 2024, with expectations to reach 56% by 2027 [1] - The Intelligent Credit Engine (ICE) business is expected to account for 39% of new loans by Q1 2025, which does not bear credit risk and has a high net fee rate [1] - The asset quality of Qifu Technology remains stable, with a 90-day overdue rate maintained between 1.0% and 3.5%, and both the provision coverage ratio and loan loss reserves to loans ratio at historical highs [1] Group 3 - Technological advancements are a significant highlight for Qifu Technology, with the launch of an AI agent platform in 2025 that will drive one-third of core processes within 1-2 years [2] - The company is enhancing its data mining and risk management capabilities through DeepSeek technology, transitioning from single-modal to multi-modal data analysis [2] - AI-driven marketing strategies have improved user reach efficiency by 25.1% and reduced customer acquisition costs by approximately 10% [2] Group 4 - Qifu Technology has committed to providing strong returns to shareholders, with total return rates (dividends + buybacks) expected to account for 17%, 14%, and 12% of the current market value from 2025 to 2027, ranking among the top in its peer group in the Asia-Pacific region [2] - The current stock price of Qifu Technology corresponds to a P/E ratio of 5.0 times and a P/B ratio of 1.4 times, which is below the average level of similar institutions in Greater China, indicating significant potential for price appreciation [2] - As a leading player in the fintech industry, Qifu Technology has shown stable growth in new loans, outperforming its peers following industry consolidation [2]

Market Capitalization Summary - TAL Education Group has a market capitalization of 14.284 billion [2] - Vipshop Holdings has a market capitalization of 8.942 billion [2] - 51Talk has a market capitalization of 7.770 billion [2] - New Oriental Education has a market capitalization of 6.304 billion [2] - 58.com has a market capitalization of 5.867 billion [2] Stock Performance - TAL Education Group's stock increased by 0.11 (+0.62%) [2] - Vipshop Holdings' stock decreased by 0.08 (-0.37%) [2] - 51Talk's stock increased by 0.12 (+0.22%) [2] - New Oriental Education's stock increased by 0.04 (+1.31%) [2] - 58.com’s stock increased by 0.28 (+0.63%) [2] Additional Company Insights - New Oriental Education's stock price is 18.29 [2] - Vipshop Holdings' stock price is 15.09 [2] - TAL Education Group's stock price is 3.48 [2] - 51Talk's stock price is 10.34 [2] - 58.com’s stock price is 12.00 [2]

Core Insights - The year 2025 is anticipated to be the breakthrough year for AI Agents, marking a transition from cutting-edge technology to practical applications [1] - AI Agents are expected to enhance productivity by directly impacting core production scenarios, enabling businesses to achieve cost efficiency and higher productivity [1][3] - The financial industry is entering its own era of AI Agents, with leading fintech companies like Ant Group and Qifu Technology launching financial AI products [2] Financial AI Agents - Financial AI Agents are defined as autonomous AI entities capable of perceiving their financial environment, reasoning, decision-making, and executing complex financial tasks [7] - Unlike traditional automation tools, which require predefined rules and processes, AI Agents can operate independently, adapting to various situations and continuously learning from their experiences [11][12] - The capabilities of AI Agents include end-to-end automation, real-time response to environmental changes, intelligent planning, and continuous self-optimization [16][17][19] Productivity Revolution - The emergence of financial AI Agents is seen as a catalyst for a significant productivity revolution within the financial sector, moving from peripheral applications to core business functions [21] - Financial AI Agents can break down process barriers, enabling comprehensive automation and enhancing service delivery to underserved populations [20][22] - The integration of AI Agents into financial services is expected to lower operational costs and improve service accessibility, thereby transforming the financial landscape [20][31] Challenges and Opportunities - Financial institutions face challenges such as data silos, high personnel costs, and the need for personalized services, which AI Agents can help mitigate [27][30] - The deployment of AI technology requires significant investment, with initial costs often exceeding millions, but the potential for quantifiable and sustainable value growth is promising [29][31] - The current state of financial AI development includes both single-agent and multi-agent systems, allowing institutions to gradually adopt AI solutions without overhauling existing frameworks [32] Strategic Implementation - Successful implementation of AI Agents in financial institutions is linked to direct involvement from top management, particularly CEOs, to drive financial performance improvements [35] - The transition from digitalization to a new paradigm in finance necessitates strategic restructuring, organizational change, and cultural transformation [35]

Core Insights - Qifu Technology (QFIN) and Sezzle (SEZL) are significant players in the credit tech sector, with QFIN focusing on AI-powered credit solutions in China and SEZL providing buy-now-pay-later services in the U.S. [2][8] Qifu Technology (QFIN) - QFIN operates a capital-light model that reduces credit risk and enhances growth, utilizing the Intelligence Credit Engine (ICE) to connect borrowers with financial partners [4][6] - The company reported a 15.8% year-over-year growth in total facilitation and origination loan volume, with operating income increasing by 44.8% year-over-year [5] - QFIN's AI-Plus credit strategy, launched in early 2025, aims to improve credit processes and has already led to increased loan volumes and stable delinquency rates at 0.6% [6] - The Chinese digital lending platform market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 27.3% from 2024 to 2030, indicating a favorable market environment for QFIN [7] Sezzle (SEZL) - SEZL targets the underbanked population in the U.S. fintech market, capitalizing on the growing digital payment sector expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.8% from 2023 to 2028 [8] - The company experienced a remarkable 123.3% increase in revenues year-over-year in Q1 2025, driven by a 64.1% rise in gross merchandise volume [9] - SEZL's customer purchase frequency increased to 6.5 times annually, reflecting higher transaction volumes and revenue growth [11] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for QFIN's 2025 sales is $2.6 billion, suggesting a 7.6% year-over-year growth, with earnings expected to rise by 25.3% [12] - For SEZL, the 2025 sales estimate is $441.8 million, indicating a 62.9% year-over-year growth, with earnings projected to grow by 77.2% [15] Valuation Comparison - QFIN is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 5.97X, while SEZL is at 43.86X, indicating that QFIN is relatively cheaper compared to SEZL [17] - Despite SEZL's strong growth and high Zacks Rank, QFIN presents a more attractive risk-reward profile for value-conscious investors [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - QFIN, a leading credit technology platform in China, reported a revenue of 4.691 billion RMB for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.94%, and a net profit of 1.8 billion RMB, up 54.62% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Company Overview - QFIN is dedicated to using credit technology to serve financial institutions, enabling consumers and small businesses to access more convenient and personalized credit services [1] - The company collaborates with 133 financial institutions, including state-owned and regional banks, as well as consumer finance companies, enhancing its service offerings [1] Group 2: Target Consumers - The company targets consumers who are underserved by traditional financial institutions, particularly those with short credit histories and high growth potential [2] - QFIN utilizes advanced technology and credit analysis capabilities to identify low-risk borrowers, thereby expanding the borrower base for financial institutions [2] Group 3: Small and Micro Enterprises - Since late 2020, QFIN has tailored loan products for high-quality small and micro enterprises, a segment often neglected by traditional banks [3] - The company leverages data analysis to identify small businesses with low default risk, facilitating their access to credit [3] Group 4: Service Offerings - QFIN provides two main types of services: credit-driven services and platform services, each designed to enhance the lending process and borrower experience [3] - Credit-driven services involve matching potential borrowers with financial institutions, where QFIN assumes credit risk for certain loan products [4] - Platform services offer customized technological solutions throughout the loan lifecycle, including borrower acquisition and credit assessment, without assuming credit risk [5] Group 5: Technology Solutions - The company employs the Intelligent Credit Engine (ICE) to provide smart marketing services to financial institutions, enhancing borrower matching and initial credit screening [5] - QFIN also offers referral services for users who do not meet the risk preferences of its partners, generating referral fees [5] - The company has introduced modular risk management SaaS services to help financial institutions improve borrower acquisition and credit assessment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) shows potential for upside with a mean price target of $54.8, indicating a 27.3% increase from the current price of $43.06 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of four short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $4.14, suggesting a consensus among analysts [2] - The lowest estimate is $50.00, indicating a 16.1% increase, while the highest estimate is $58.50, suggesting a 35.9% increase [2] - Analysts' price targets should be approached with caution, as their reliability has been questioned [3][7] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Agreement - Strong agreement among analysts regarding QFIN's earnings prospects supports the potential for stock upside [4][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 2.3% over the past month, with two estimates revised upward [12] - QFIN holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Conclusion on Price Movement - While consensus price targets may not be entirely reliable, the direction they imply appears to be a good guide for potential price movement [14]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are seeking growth stocks that can deliver above-average growth and exceptional returns, but identifying such stocks is challenging due to their inherent risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Growth Stock Identification - The Zacks Growth Style Score system aids in identifying promising growth stocks by analyzing real growth prospects beyond traditional metrics [2] - Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) is highlighted as a recommended stock with a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Earnings growth is crucial for investors, with double-digit growth being a strong indicator of future stock price gains [3] - Qifu Technology, Inc. has a historical EPS growth rate of 8.3%, but its projected EPS growth for this year is 25.3%, surpassing the industry average of 23.7% [4] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - Higher-than-average cash flow growth is essential for growth-oriented companies, allowing them to expand without relying on external funding [5] - Qifu Technology, Inc. has a year-over-year cash flow growth of 41.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of -12.3% [5] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 19.2%, compared to the industry average of 14.6% [6] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - Positive trends in earnings estimate revisions correlate strongly with near-term stock price movements [7] - Qifu Technology, Inc. has seen upward revisions in current-year earnings estimates, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 2.3% over the past month [7] Group 5: Overall Assessment - Qifu Technology, Inc. has achieved a Zacks Rank of 2 and a Growth Score of A, indicating its potential as a solid choice for growth investors [8][9]

新华财经上海6月18日电（记者王淑娟）人工智能技术的快速迭代对金融行业产生了哪些深刻影响？ 2025陆家嘴论坛上，AI是嘉宾们密集提到的关键词。 作为总部设立在上海的金融科技上市企业，奇富科技一直以人工智能技术助力银行智能化转型为战略方 向，为上海国际金融中心建设注入金融科技动能。18日，奇富科技CEO吴海生在2025陆家嘴论坛上接受 新华财经记者专访时表示，"AI+金融"目前还处于投入期，但已经带来了边际效益的提升。比如，通过 AI应用，小微企业信贷的信用评估、风控审批等流程已经显著提升，对于很多中小银行而言可以显著 缩小技术差距。 据悉，结合文本、语音、图像等多模态能力的大模型改变的不仅是人机交互方式，也催生了新的"工 种"——智能体。 "奇富科技重点打造了信贷超级智能体，我们只做这一个事情，因为它难度最大。"吴海生认为，智能体 是大模型在金融领域落地的关键驱动力量，其影响和价值在不同层面得到充分展现。 吴海生认为，推理性技术对于信贷风控有极大的提升，但是它很难，因为数据非结构化，充满了欺诈数 据，涉及多模态数据的处理。过去可能一个企业处理100个维度的数据，但今天有了多模态后，数据可 以达到千万级别，根 ...

6月16日，奇富科技(QFIN)盘中上涨3.48%，截至22:36，报43.14美元/股，成交2441.07万美元，总市值 58.01亿美元。 财务数据显示，截至2025年03月31日，奇富科技收入总额46.91亿人民币，同比增长12.94%；归母净利 润18.0亿人民币，同比增长54.62%。 资料显示，奇富科技股份有限公司("奇富科技")(NASDAQ:QFIN及HKEX:3660)是中国领先的信贷科技平 台。公司致力于运用信贷科技服务金融机构,让消费者及小微企业获得更方便、更个性化的信贷服务。 通过配置技术解决方案,公司协助金融机构识别消费者及小微企业的多方面需求,通过多渠道有效触及信 用良好的潜在借款人,加强潜在借款人的信贷评估,管理信贷风险及改善收款策略及效率。加之与360集团 的合作,公司提供的解决方案在客户获取、资金优化、信贷评估和贷后管理等方面取得了显着的优势。 公司的价值主张是运用科技创新连接金融机构与借款人,革新信贷服务,让消费者及小微企业更容易获得 信贷服务,同时在贷款生命周期的不同阶段赋能金融机构。具体而言,公司相信公司的服务为以下行业参 与者提供巨大价值: 金融机构合作伙伴。公司提供 ...