Group 1 - Qihoo 360, a sister company of QFIN, is listed on the US DoD Chinese Military Company list, or CMC, but this is not believed to directly impact the company [1] - Astrada Advisors specializes in delivering actionable recommendations that enhance portfolio performance and uncover alpha opportunities, supported by a strong track record in investment research [1] - The firm has expertise in technology, media, internet, and consumer sectors across North America and Asia, excelling in identifying high-potential investments and navigating complex industries [1] Group 2 - Astrada Advisors leverages extensive local and global experience to provide a unique perspective on market developments, regulatory changes, and emerging risks [1] - The research conducted by Astrada Advisors integrates rigorous fundamental analysis with data-driven insights, offering a nuanced understanding of key trends, growth drivers, and competitive landscapes [1] - The focus of the company is to empower investors with timely research and a comprehensive view of industry dynamics, whether navigating volatile markets or exploring new trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) has demonstrated exceptional stock performance, significantly outperforming its industry and competitors, driven by strong financial metrics and favorable economic conditions [1][12][18]. Group 1: Stock Performance - QFIN stock has surged 104.4% over the past six months, compared to a 50.5% increase in the industry and 11.4% growth in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [1]. - As of the last trading session, QFIN closed at $38.3, which is 5.2% below its 52-week high of $40.3, and is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating bullish investor sentiment [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - QFIN's D1 delinquency rate has decreased over the last three quarters, with rates of 4.9%, 4.8%, and 4.6% for the first, second, and third quarters of 2024, respectively, while the 30-day collection rate improved from 85.1% to 87.4% during the same period [8]. - The 90-day default rate improved from 3.4% in Q2 2024 to 2.7% in Q3 2024, and funding costs were reduced by 30 basis points per quarter, indicating effective risk management and collection practices [9]. - QFIN's stock is priced at 6.3 times forward 12-month earnings per share, significantly lower than the industry average of 41.7 times, and its trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA ratio is 4.9 times, compared to the industry's average of 89.1 times [12]. - The return on equity (ROE) for QFIN is 24.4%, well above the industry average of 3.4%, reflecting strong profitability [13]. - QFIN has a current ratio of 2.56, surpassing the industry average of 2.16, indicating a strong liquidity position [14]. Group 3: Revenue and Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for QFIN's 2024 revenues is $2.3 billion, reflecting a 1.8% increase from the previous year, with a projected revenue of $2.4 billion for 2025, indicating a 3.7% year-over-year growth [16]. - The consensus estimate for 2024 earnings is $5.7 per share, suggesting a 55.2% increase from the prior year, with a projected earnings of $6.4 per share for 2025, indicating a 12% year-over-year rise [16]. Group 4: Economic Environment - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented measures to lower the reverse repurchase rate and reduce the Required Reserve Ratio (RRR), which enhances liquidity in the banking system and lowers lending costs, potentially increasing demand for QFIN's lending services [10][11].

Group 1: Emerging Market Investment Overview - The first half of 2024 was favorable for emerging market investment, with increased investor exposure despite challenges such as China's property crisis and poor consumption patterns in several emerging economies [1] - Emerging-market equities registered a 9.6% return from January to August 2024, driven by strong performances from large-cap semiconductor companies [3] - The positive trend in emerging markets faced challenges due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the U.S. election and high import tariff fears, which led to muted investment activities [4] Group 2: Future Prospects and Economic Outlook - The OECD's economic roadmap indicates promising prospects for emerging markets in 2025, with overall momentum in 2024 on par with 2023, despite geopolitical tensions [5] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows for India and China are expected to remain resilient in 2025, driven by competitive wages, increasing domestic demand, and improved business regulations [9] - Global headline FDI is projected to recover in 2025, with world trade in goods and services expected to grow by 3.4% [10] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) is a leading Credit-Tech platform in China, with projected earnings growth rates of 55.2% for 2024 and 12% for 2025, and a stock increase of 87% over the past six months [13][14] - Yatra Online (YTRA), an online travel operator in India, anticipates significant growth in the MICE sector, with fiscal 2025 revenue and earnings growth rates projected at 90.9% and 350%, respectively [15][16] - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY), a global pharmaceutical company, is focused on expanding its biosimilars facility in India, with fiscal 2025 revenue and earnings growth rates of 11.5% and 3.8%, respectively [17][18]

Company Overview - Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong potential for momentum investing [3][12] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), which is associated with a historical outperformance in the market [4][12] Price Performance - Over the past week, QFIN shares have increased by 10.37%, significantly outperforming the Zacks Technology Services industry, which rose by 1.57% [7] - In the last quarter, QFIN shares have risen by 44.98%, and over the past year, they have surged by 145.7%, while the S&P 500 has only increased by 9.71% and 33.24%, respectively [8] Trading Volume - QFIN's average 20-day trading volume is 1,433,438 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [9] Earnings Estimates - In the past two months, two earnings estimates for QFIN have been revised upwards, raising the consensus estimate from $5.08 to $5.71 [11] - For the next fiscal year, two estimates have also moved upwards with no downward revisions during the same period [11]

Company Overview - Qifu Technology (NASDAQ: QFIN) is based in Shanghai, China, and operates a credit-tech platform under the 360 Jietiao brand, offering services such as borrower-lender matching, credit verification, risk management, and post-loan facilitation to various financial institutions [1] Services Offered - The company provides platform services that include loan creation, referral, and other credit-based services aimed at enhancing the efficiency of financial transactions [1] Investment Insights - Daniel Sereda, a chief investment analyst at a family office, emphasizes the importance of filtering vast amounts of data to extract critical investment ideas, indicating a focus on high-quality analysis in the investment community [1]

Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) stock has shown remarkable growth over the past six months. The stock has skyrocketed 93.9%, outperforming the 42.1% rally of the industry and 14.6% growth of the Zacks S&P 500 composite.QFIN’s performance is significantly higher than its competitors, SLM Corporation (SLM) and Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC) . SLM and CACC have gained 33.9% and 3.4% for the same period, respectively.Six Months Price Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment Research As of the last trading ...

I am a conservative yet opportunistic value investor who has been investing since 2005. I am fact-driven, preferring to let financial data inform me of a company's health, followed by qualitative analysis to fill in the gaps to paint a holistic picture of a company's growth prospects.My work is published on two platforms, Seeking Alpha and FAST Graphs (https://fastgraphs.com/blog/category/research-articles/).I appreciate everyone who reads my research and especially those who drop me questions and comments ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 32.37 美元 38.40↑ +18.6% 金融科技 2024 年 11 月 20 日 奇富科技 (QFIN US) 3 季度盈利超出指引，股票回购力度加大 盈利增长强劲，超出公司此前指引。2024 年 3 季度 Non-GAAP 净利润为 18.3 亿（人民币，下同），同/环比+54.5%/+29.1%，超出公司此前指引 （15.5-16.5 亿元）。3 季度净收入同/环比+2.1%/+5.1%，盈利显著增长主 要来自 take rate 上升和拨备回拨的贡献（9.1 亿元，对比 2 季度 4.8 亿 元）。公司指引 4 季度 Non-GAAP 净利润为 18-19 亿元人民币之间，对应 同比增速在 57-65%，意味着 2024 年 Non-GAAP 净利润将超过 62 亿元，增 速超过 40%。 促成贷款环比恢复正增长，轻资产模式占比进一步提升。3 季度促成贷款 环比增长 13%，贷款余额环比增长 3%。3 季度持续经营的促成贷款中，轻 资产模式占比 55.1%，同/环比+10.3/+1.1 个百分点；占贷款余额的比重为 58%，同/环比+7.5 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Non-GAAP net income reached a record high of RMB 1.83 billion in Q3, up 29.1% sequentially and 54.5% YoY [8] - Non-GAAP net income per diluted ADS increased 34.8% sequentially and 71.5% YoY to RMB 12.4 [8] - ROE in Q3 increased to 32.2%, significantly higher than most financial services and internet companies in China [9] - Total loan facilitation and origination volume (excluding RM SaaS) increased by 13.1% sequentially [7] - D1 delinquency rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points sequentially, and 30-day collection rate increased by 1.1 percentage points to the highest level since 2022 [11] - Funding costs decreased by 30 basis points sequentially, and ABS issuance costs fell by more than 50 basis points [12] - Total ABS issuance for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 13.4 billion, up 23% YoY [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Capital-light segment contributed 55% of total loan facilitation and origination volume in Q3, up approximately 10 percentage points YoY [20] - Loan volume from embedded finance channels increased by 85% YoY, with new credit line users acquired through these channels increasing by roughly 5 percentage points [15] - The number of users with successful drawdown grew consistently each month, with the monthly average increasing by approximately 12% from the previous quarter [18] - Log-in conversion rate increased by 11.6% sequentially in Q3 [18] - Total Technology Solutions business partnered with an additional 9 financial institutions, bringing the total to 14, with solutions deployed in 10 of them [24] Market Data and Key Metrics - The company served more than 55 million users with approved credit lines cumulatively by the end of Q3 [7] - New credit line users increased by 23.8% sequentially, while average unit acquisition cost declined by 7.4% [14] - The proportion of new credit line users acquired through embedded finance channels increased by roughly 5 percentage points [15] - The company partnered with 5 financial institutions across various categories, including joint stock banks, municipal banks, private banks, and consumer finance companies [16] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company transitioned from a loan facilitation model to a platform model, focusing on long-term user engagement and diversified product offerings [21][22] - The platform model enables the company to address users' credit needs at different stages of their life cycle while balancing scale, risk, and profitability [22] - The company is leveraging AI and large language models to improve user experience and operational efficiency, with the AI copilot system achieving a recall rate of 96.3% and an accuracy rate of 98.8% [25][26] - The company is expanding its tech solutions beyond consumer credit services, developing a proprietary solution tailored for SME lending [25] - The company is confident in its competitive advantage, particularly in its target customer groups, and believes the platform model has made it more robust and resilient [68][69] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company remains cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook but is confident in achieving long-term, high-quality growth [30] - The company expects risk performance to remain relatively stable in the coming quarters, assuming a muted macro environment [11][77] - The company anticipates total shareholder returns in 2024 to approach 100% of its 2023 net income, one of the highest payout ratios among Chinese ADRs [31] - The company expects non-GAAP net income for Q4 2024 to be between RMB 1.8 billion and RMB 1.9 billion, representing YoY growth of 57% to 65% [50] Other Important Information - The company completed the majority of its USD 350 million share repurchase plan and approved a new repurchase plan of USD 450 million starting January 1, 2025 [31][47] - The company generated approximately RMB 2.37 billion in cash from operations in Q3, with total cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments reaching RMB 9.77 billion [45] - The company's leverage ratio reached a historical low of 2.3x in Q3, and it expects the ratio to fluctuate around this level in the near future [44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of loan volume growth and outlook for 2025 [53] - Loan volume increased 4.4% sequentially, driven by a slight recovery in customer demand and the platform strategy [54] - The company remains prudent due to macroeconomic, geopolitical, and domestic policy uncertainties but is well-positioned to seize growth opportunities [56] Question: Drivers of write-backs and sustainability [59] - Write-backs increased significantly due to prudent provisioning policies and improved risk performance, with RMB 910 million in write-backs in Q3 [60][63] - Write-backs are expected to remain sizable in Q4 and beyond, though the shift to a capital-light model may reduce the need for large provisions [65][66] Question: Competitive landscape and strategy [59] - The company has a competitive advantage in its target customer groups and has transitioned to a platform model, improving customer retention and lifetime value [67][68] Question: Asset quality outlook [71] - The company expects stable risk performance in the near future, supported by its high-quality development strategy and advanced risk management technology [73][77] Question: Share buyback pace and price considerations [79] - The company plans to complete its current share repurchase plan by the end of 2024 and will execute the new USD 450 million plan starting January 1, 2025 [79][81] - The company believes its shares are undervalued and will prioritize share buybacks to maximize shareholder returns [80][83] Question: Take rate improvement and long-term outlook [86] - Take rate improvement in Q3 was driven by reduced credit costs, lower funding costs, and deferred impacts from mix changes [87] - The company expects take rate to remain stable in Q4 and improve slightly in 2025, with long-term sustainability dependent on macroeconomic recovery [89][91]

As of November 19, 2024, the Company had in aggregate purchased approximately 13.7 million ADSs in the open market for a total amount of approximately US$298 million (inclusive of commissions) at an average price of US$21.7 per ADS pursuant to the share repurchase plan. Business Outlook Conference Call Preregistration Registration Link: https://register.vevent.com/register/BI019bc78618c84e7184e794d691cfdb5b Safe Harbor Statement (Amounts in thousands of Renminbi ("RMB") and U.S. dollars ("USD") except for n ...