Qfin Holdings , Inc. ( QFIN ) , previously known as Qifu Technology, is one of my favorite fintech stocks when it comes to growth, value, and long-term potential. I can’t be more bullish on QFIN considering theirI am a financial writer with a degree in Finance. In my five-year career, I have worked with two financial companies. I keep a close eye on Energy, Banking, and Tech stocks. My main focus is fundamental analysis and looking at the long-term position of a stock instead of short-term analysis. The mai ...

Core Viewpoint - The leading lending platforms have shown significant growth in Q2, with a focus on adapting to the upcoming regulatory changes in the lending industry, which are expected to accelerate industry consolidation and enhance risk control and consumer protection requirements [1][2][3]. Overall Performance Growth - The top three platforms, Qifu Technology, Lexin, and Xinye Technology, reported loan balances of 140.08 billion, 105.78 billion, and 75.4 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.4%, -8.1%, and 17.4% [2]. - Lexin achieved a net profit of 510 million RMB in Q2, a 126% increase year-on-year, while Qifu Technology and Xinye Technology reported revenues of 5.216 billion and 3.578 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.38% and 12.94% respectively [2]. - Qifu Technology's net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders reached 1.734 billion RMB, up 25.6% year-on-year, and Xinye Technology's net profit was 751.3 million RMB, a 36.35% increase [2]. Changes in Business Models - The business structure of platforms has shifted, with a decrease in loan volume under the light capital model due to the upcoming regulatory changes, leading to increased funding costs for both light and heavy capital models [4][5]. - Lexin reported a decrease in the light capital model's share of GMV from 27% in Q1 to 20% in Q2, while the heavy capital model's share increased from 73% to 80% [4]. - Qifu Technology's total loan volume reached 84.609 billion RMB, a 16.1% increase year-on-year, but a 4.8% decrease from the previous quarter, with light capital loans accounting for 41.4% of the total [5]. New Growth Opportunities - Platforms are actively seeking new growth points outside traditional loan facilitation, with Xinye Technology reporting international market revenue of 1.5072 billion RMB in H1 2025, a 30.2% year-on-year increase [7]. - Lexin's credit facilitation service revenue was 2.27 billion RMB, down 15.0% year-on-year, while technology-enabled service revenue grew by 55.3% to 830 million RMB [8]. - Qifu Technology emphasizes AI-driven financial technology as its core growth potential, with its subsidiary achieving a 150% year-on-year growth in business scale [8]. Industry Trends - The industry is expected to focus on three main directions: deepening scenario finance, enhancing small and micro finance services using AI models, and strengthening data asset operations to improve risk control accuracy [8][9]. - The upcoming regulatory changes are anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation, favoring platforms with strong compliance capabilities and high technological barriers [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and HK stocks [6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight fluctuation in risk during 2Q25, with loan volume decreasing by 4.8% quarter-on-quarter to 84.6 billion RMB, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 3.7% to 1.73 billion RMB [1][2]. - The implementation of the "New Regulations on Internet Lending" on October 1 is expected to be the biggest uncertainty for the industry, potentially affecting business models and profitability, but may lead to a more optimized competitive environment in the long term as non-compliant small platforms are phased out [1][3]. - The company aims to provide stable shareholder returns, having utilized 277 million USD of its 450 million USD buyback plan as of August 14 [3]. Loan Quality - In 2Q25, the risk slightly increased, with C-M2 rising to 0.64% (from 0.60% in 1Q25), and the first-day overdue rate increasing to 5.1% (from 5.0% in 1Q25) [2]. - The 30-day repayment rate decreased to 87.3% (from 88.1% in 1Q25), indicating potential short-term volatility in risk due to liquidity tightening from the new regulations [2]. Loan Volume - The new loan volume in 2Q25 was 84.6 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.8% but a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [2]. - The company has reduced its light capital loan volume ratio to 41% (from 49% in 1Q25), indicating a more cautious approach from funding sources [2]. Funding Costs - Current funding costs are at a relatively low level, with limited potential for significant further reductions in the future [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 6.93 billion RMB, 7.49 billion RMB, and 7.93 billion RMB respectively [4]. - The target prices are set at 53.7 USD for US stocks and 210.5 HKD for HK stocks, based on a PE of 6.5x for 2025 [4][10].

Group 1 - Qfin Holdings Inc. - Sponsored ADR (QFIN) has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a more favorable earnings estimate revision trend compared to Blackstone Inc. (BX), which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - Value investors utilize various traditional metrics to identify undervalued companies, including P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, and cash flow per share [4] - QFIN's forward P/E ratio is 4.30, significantly lower than BX's forward P/E of 34.29, suggesting QFIN may be undervalued [5] Group 2 - QFIN has a PEG ratio of 0.31, while BX has a PEG ratio of 1.39, indicating QFIN's expected earnings growth is more favorable relative to its price [5] - QFIN's P/B ratio is 1.42, compared to BX's P/B of 6.38, further supporting QFIN's valuation as more attractive [6] - QFIN's overall Value grade is A, while BX's Value grade is D, highlighting QFIN as the better option for value investors [6]

Core Viewpoint - QFIN's stock opened up 3.18% on August 25, reaching $32.45 per share, with a total market capitalization of $4.297 billion. The company reported a total revenue of 9.907 billion RMB for the period ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.17%, and a net profit of 3.534 billion RMB, up 38.88% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - QFIN is a leading credit technology platform in China, focused on providing innovative credit services to financial institutions, enabling consumers and small businesses to access personalized credit solutions [2][3]. - The company collaborates with 133 financial institutions, including state-owned and regional banks, to enhance credit assessment and risk management [2]. Group 2: Target Audience - The company targets consumers who are underserved by traditional financial institutions, particularly those with short credit histories and high potential for growth [3][4]. - QFIN also focuses on small and micro enterprises that lack sufficient credit history or collateral, offering tailored loan products to meet their needs [4]. Group 3: Service Offerings - QFIN provides two main types of services: credit-driven services and platform services, both designed to improve the lending process and enhance credit assessment [4][5]. - Credit-driven services involve matching potential borrowers with financial institutions, where QFIN assumes some credit risk [5][6]. - Platform services include a range of technology solutions throughout the loan lifecycle, such as borrower acquisition and credit assessment, without assuming credit risk [6][7]. Group 4: Technology and Innovation - The company utilizes its proprietary Intelligent Credit Engine (ICE) to provide smart marketing services and assist financial institutions in initial credit screening [6][7]. - QFIN has also introduced a risk management SaaS service to help financial institutions improve their credit assessment processes [7].

Core Viewpoint - QFIN's stock price increased by 2.39% on August 21, 2023, reaching $30.389 per share, with a total market capitalization of $4.024 billion. The company reported a total revenue of 9.907 billion RMB for the period ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.534 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 38.88% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Highlights - As of June 30, 2025, QFIN's total revenue was 9.907 billion RMB, up 19.17% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.534 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 38.88% [1]. Dividend Announcement - On August 18, 2023, QFIN announced a mid-term dividend distribution of $0.76 per ADR, with the ex-dividend date set for September 8, 2025, and the payment date on September 30, 2025 [2]. Company Overview - QFIN is a leading credit technology platform in China, focused on providing credit technology services to financial institutions, enabling consumers and small enterprises to access more convenient and personalized credit services [2][3]. - The company collaborates with 133 financial institutions, including state-owned and regional banks, as well as consumer finance companies, to enhance credit assessment and risk management [2]. Target Market - QFIN targets consumers who are underserved by traditional financial institutions, particularly those with short credit histories but stable incomes and high growth potential [3]. - The company also focuses on small and micro enterprises that lack sufficient credit history and collateral, offering tailored loan products to meet their needs [4]. Service Offerings - QFIN provides two main types of services: credit-driven services and platform services, both designed to enhance the lending process and improve credit assessment [4][5]. - Credit-driven services involve matching potential borrowers with financial institutions, where QFIN assumes credit risk for certain loan products [4]. - Platform services include a range of technology solutions throughout the loan lifecycle, such as borrower acquisition, credit assessment, and post-loan services, without assuming credit risk [5][6]. Technology Solutions - The company utilizes its "Intelligent Credit Engine" (ICE) to provide smart marketing services and assist financial institutions in preliminary credit screening [6]. - QFIN also offers risk management SaaS services to help financial institutions improve their credit assessment processes [7].

Core Viewpoint - QFIN's stock price increased by 2.21% to $30.56 per share, with a total market capitalization of $4.047 billion as of August 19. The company reported a total revenue of 4.691 billion RMB for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.94%, and a net profit of 1.8 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 54.62% [1][2]. Company Overview - QFIN is a leading credit technology platform in China, focused on providing innovative credit services to financial institutions, enabling consumers and small businesses to access personalized credit solutions [2][3]. - The company collaborates with 133 financial institutions, including state-owned and regional banks, to enhance credit assessment and risk management processes [2]. Target Consumers - The company targets consumers who are underserved by traditional financial institutions, particularly those with limited credit histories but stable incomes and high growth potential [3][4]. - QFIN utilizes advanced technology and credit analysis capabilities to identify low-risk borrowers, thereby expanding the borrower base for financial institutions [3]. Small and Micro Enterprises - Since late 2020, QFIN has tailored loan products for high-quality small and micro enterprises, which are often overlooked by traditional banks [4]. - The company leverages data analysis to identify small businesses with low default risks, facilitating their access to credit [4]. Service Offerings - QFIN provides two main types of services: credit-driven services and platform services, both designed to enhance the lending process and improve credit assessment [4][5]. - Credit-driven services involve matching potential borrowers with financial institutions, where QFIN assumes some credit risk [4][6]. - Platform services offer customized technological solutions throughout the loan lifecycle, including borrower acquisition and credit assessment, without assuming credit risk [5][6]. Technology Solutions - The company employs a light capital model, providing a comprehensive suite of technology-driven services that cover the entire loan lifecycle [6]. - QFIN's Intelligent Credit Engine (ICE) offers smart marketing services to financial institutions, enhancing borrower matching and initial credit screening [6][7]. - The company also provides risk management SaaS services to help financial institutions improve their credit assessment processes [7].

另外，公司宣派中期股息每股A类普通股38美仙或每股美国存托股76美仙，对比去年同期派中期息每股 A类普通股30美仙或每股美国存托股60美仙。(格隆汇) 奇富科技(QFIN.US)盘前涨超2%，报30.5美元。 消息面上，奇富科技公布第二季度财务业绩，净收入总额为52.159亿元，同比增长25.4%；公司应占净 利润为17.34亿元，同比增长25.6%。截至2025年6月30日，平台已累计连接165家金融机构合作伙伴及 2.758亿名具潜在信贷需求的消费者，较上年的2.476亿名增长11.4%。第二季度总撮合及发起贷款规模 达846.09亿元，同比增加16.1%。 ...

前言： 投资奇富科技，看的不仅是一两季的财报数字，而是中国金融科技巨大的市场空间、公司已稳固的合规 头部地位，以及业务恢复后的高成长潜力。 奇富科技在8月15日交出了最新的成绩单：二季度公司收入52.16亿元，超出市场预期环比增长11.2%， 同比增长25.4%；普通股东应占净利润17.34亿元，同比增长25.6%。 在复杂的市场环境之下，这一成绩称得上可圈可点。 但市场普遍担忧大环境的"承压"因素，同时部分投资者仍旧用保守眼光看待奇富科技的基本面。 若把镜头拉远，正是在这种背景下，奇富科技为代表的龙头玩家的预期差正加速凸显出来——短期是资 金与风险的拐点，中期看技术输出与全球化增量，长期有AI护城河带来的估值重塑。资本市场尚未充 分定价这三重逻辑。 一、短期预期差：成本+风险双降，基本面反转信号显现 奇富科技在资金成本管控上取得突破性进展。在二季度，奇富科技通过ABS发行融资78亿元，同比大幅 增长70%。这一数据背后有两个重要看点：一是发行规模的迅速扩大，显示公司在资本市场的融资渠道 顺畅；二是成本降至历史最低水平，直接推动综合资金成本环比下降10个基点。在当前利率下行的大周 期中，拥有稳定低成本资金来源 ...

Core Insights - Q2 2025 performance of Qifu Technology shows revenue of 5.216 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.38% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.2% [1] - Net profit for the same period is 1.731 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.72% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.68% [1] Financial Performance - Total loan facilitation in Q2 reached 84.609 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.81% but a year-on-year increase of 16.12% [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the loan balance stood at 1400.80 billion, showing a slight decrease from 1402.73 billion at the end of March but a year-on-year increase of 13.38% from 1235.51 billion [3] Business Strategy - Qifu Technology's strategy remains cautious, with a focus on balancing growth and risk [4] - The company has diversified its business model, allowing for flexibility in asset allocation between heavy and light capital [5] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2, revenue from heavy capital loan facilitation reached 0.461 billion, a year-on-year increase of 205.1% [7] - Financing income accounted for the largest share of total revenue at 2.205 billion, representing 42% of total revenue [10] - The company issued bonds totaling 14.4 billion in the first half of 2025, a 45% increase year-on-year [12] Regulatory Impact - The "Assisted Loan New Regulations" are expected to have a positive long-term impact on the industry, promoting a healthier ecosystem [13][14] - Qifu Technology is preparing alternative plans in response to the new regulations, ensuring compliance and operational stability [20][21] International Expansion - Qifu has initiated small-scale operations in the UK, with positive early indicators [24] - The company aims to understand local markets and refine its risk models as part of its international strategy [25] Cost Management - Customer acquisition costs decreased to 370 yuan in Q2 from 384 yuan in the previous quarter [30] - Marketing expenses increased to 6.63 billion, a 12% quarter-on-quarter rise [33] Risk Management - The company has increased its risk provisions, with new provisions for risk-bearing loans totaling approximately 2.5 billion in Q2 [8] - The D1 delinquency rate remained stable, but recovery rates declined from 88.1% to 87.3% [35] - Qifu is tightening risk management measures in response to industry-wide pressures and regulatory changes [42][43] Future Outlook - The company maintains a cautious outlook due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, projecting Q3 net profit between 1.52 billion and 1.72 billion, reflecting a potential year-on-year decline [44][45]