Q3 2025 Shareholder Letter © 2025 Rivian. All rights reserved. 2 We continue to make significant progress across our strategic priorities including preparation for the launch of R2 and development of our technology roadmap including autonomy and our vertically integrated hardware and software. While we face near-term uncertainty from trade, tariffs, and regulatory policy, we remain focused on long-term growth and value creation. We believe the future car parc will be fully electric, autonomous, and software ...

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group are facing increasing challenges as they attempt to convince investors of a profitable future amidst difficult market conditions [1][2][3] Company Performance - Both companies are expected to report significant revenue growth and reduced adjusted earnings losses in their upcoming third-quarter results, driven by record U.S. EV sales [2][12] - Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles in Q3, a 32% increase year-over-year, while Lucid delivered 4,078 units, up 47% from 2,781 units in Q3 2024 [12] - Rivian anticipates an adjusted EPS loss of 72 cents on revenue of $1.5 billion, compared to a loss of 99 cents on revenue of $874 million a year earlier [13] - Lucid is expected to report a $2.27 adjusted EPS loss, down from $2.80 a year earlier, with revenue projected to increase by approximately 90% to $379.1 million [15] Market Challenges - Both companies have reduced vehicle production guidance due to challenging market conditions, including increased costs from tariffs and a slowdown in EV sales forecasts [3][4] - The elimination of federal EV purchase incentives, which previously provided up to $7,500, is expected to negatively impact sales and profits [4][8] - Rivian has cut its expected earnings from credit sales from $300 million to $160 million, leading to a lowered gross profit guidance for the year [5] Future Growth Opportunities - Rivian's future relies heavily on the upcoming "R2" vehicle, expected to launch in the first half of next year, which aims to reduce production costs and complexity [19][20] - Lucid is focusing on the launch of its Gravity SUV and a future midsize vehicle platform to expand its market reach [24][25] - Both companies are promoting their technological advancements, including Rivian's $5.8 billion deal with Volkswagen for software and electrical architecture, and Lucid's partnership with Uber for deploying Gravity SUVs equipped with autonomous technology [23][26] Financial Outlook - Rivian is expected to report a gross loss of $39 million in Q3, while Lucid's gross loss is projected at $255 million [16] - Analysts are closely monitoring gross profit improvements as a key indicator of future profitability for both companies [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Rivian is set to report its third quarter earnings, focusing on its path to profitability amidst challenges such as the loss of federal electric vehicle tax credits [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, Rivian is expected to report revenue of $1.49 billion, which is relatively unchanged from the previous year [2] - The company is projected to post an adjusted loss per share of $0.71 and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $570.7 million [2] - Last quarter, Rivian did not report a gross profit, marking a setback after two consecutive quarters of gross profit [3] - The full-year loss projection has been widened, with adjusted 2025 full-year EBITDA loss now estimated between $2 billion and $2.25 billion, up from a previous range of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion [3] Production and Delivery - In Q3, Rivian produced 10,720 vehicles and delivered 13,201 vehicles, aligning with expectations for a strong quarter [3] - The delivery guidance for 2025 has been narrowed to a range of 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles, down from a prior range of 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles [3] - The original delivery target for 2025 was between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles [3] Product Development - The upcoming R2 midsize crossover is crucial for boosting Rivian's sales, with a planned release in 2026 [4] Stock Performance - Rivian's stock has experienced volatility, currently down 4% year to date [5]

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive's shares experienced a decline of 1.57% over the last five trading sessions following a prior increase of 2.70% in the preceding five sessions [1] Summary by Category - **Stock Performance** - Rivian Automotive's shares lost 1.57% in the last five trading days [1] - This decline followed a gain of 2.70% in the five trading days before the recent drop [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive is expected to report significant revenue growth in its upcoming third-quarter financial results, driven by strong demand and the upcoming launch of its R2 vehicle [1][2]. Financial Performance - Analysts estimate Rivian's third-quarter revenue to be $1.50 billion, a 71% increase from $874 million in the same quarter last year [2]. - The company is projected to report a loss of 72 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of 99 cents per share in the previous year [3]. Delivery and Demand Insights - Rivian reported third-quarter deliveries of 13,200 vehicles, marking a 32% year-over-year increase, surpassing consensus estimates of 12,700 units but falling short of Goldman Sachs' estimate of 13,950 [5]. - The growth in deliveries was attributed to strong demand related to the expiration of the federal EV tax credit [4]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The expiration of the federal tax credit is expected to pose challenges for the EV market, potentially leading to a "double-digit percent headwind" for the sector [5]. - Rivian has slightly lowered its full-year delivery guidance to a midpoint of 42,500 vehicles, aligning with Goldman Sachs' estimate and slightly above consensus estimates [6]. Key Items to Watch - Analysts suggest monitoring Rivian's increased volumes, margins, vertical integration, cash burn, and supply chain dynamics [7]. - The upcoming R2 vehicle launch is seen as crucial for Rivian's future growth, with consumer deliveries expected to begin in the first half of 2026 [8][10]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Recent analyst ratings include JPMorgan maintaining an Underweight rating with a price target increase from $9 to $10, Mizuho downgrading from Neutral to Underperform with a target of $10, and UBS maintaining a Neutral rating with a target increase from $12 to $13 [9]. Stock Performance - Rivian's stock is currently down 2.43% to $13.24, with a year-to-date decline of 0.45% [12].

Core Viewpoint - Rivian's stock is currently valued at approximately $13 per share, but if it were valued similarly to Tesla, it could be trading at $70.49, indicating a significant potential upside for investors [1]. Valuation Comparison - Rivian stock is trading at a notable discount compared to Tesla and Lucid Group, highlighting a consistent undervaluation in the market [2]. - The forward price-to-sales ratios suggest that Rivian's stock could exceed $70 if it matched Tesla's valuation metrics, yet it remains below $15 [3]. Competitive Advantages - Tesla's market cap of $1.4 trillion provides a substantial capital advantage, allowing it to raise significant funds with minimal shareholder dilution, which is crucial in the capital-intensive EV industry [4]. - Tesla's emerging reputation as a leader in artificial intelligence, particularly in the robotaxi market, further enhances its competitive edge [5]. Rivian's Growth Potential - Rivian is expected to introduce three new models (R2, R3, and R3X) early next year, all priced under $50,000, which aligns with consumer preferences and could position Rivian as a strong competitor in the affordable EV segment [8]. - The upcoming year is anticipated to boost Rivian's growth and focus on AI initiatives, potentially enhancing its market position [9].

Group 1 - Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) is advised to be sold by Jim Cramer, who emphasizes that the stock is not a good investment at this time [1] - Cramer highlights concerns regarding Rivian's significant spending on its factory and suggests that a potential economic slowdown could lead to lower stock prices in the future [1] - The article suggests that while Rivian has potential, certain AI stocks may offer better upside potential and lower downside risk [1] Group 2 - Rivian manufactures electric vehicles and provides related software, charging, and maintenance services [1]

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) shares have increased by 4.6% over the past week, indicating a slight underperformance compared to the Nasdaq index [1] Company Summary - Rivian's stock performance reflects a modest gain of 4.6% in the last week [1] - The company's recent share price movement suggests it is not keeping pace with the broader Nasdaq market [1] Industry Context - The performance of Rivian's shares may indicate broader trends within the electric vehicle sector, particularly in relation to market dynamics and investor sentiment [1]

Market Overview - US stocks experienced mixed results last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rising slightly over 1.6%, while the Dow increased by 2% [2] - Both the DJIA and S&P 500 reached record levels on Friday, influenced by Q3 earnings season, dovish Federal Reserve commentary, and better-than-expected inflation data [2][12] Earnings Season Insights - The second week of Q3 earnings season showed mixed results, with initial strong performances from big banks followed by disappointing reports from regional banks and major tech companies [3] - High-profile disappointments included Tesla, which saw profits drop 37% year-over-year despite beating revenue expectations, leading to a 4% stock drop [4] - IBM reported better-than-expected earnings but showed slowing growth in its core cloud services, facing stiff competition from AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud [4] - Netflix missed earnings estimates due to a tax dispute, despite having a successful film, resulting in a 5% stock decline [4] Positive Earnings Reports - Honeywell exceeded analyst expectations due to strength in its aerospace division, resulting in a 4% stock increase [5] - American Airlines reported better-than-expected results driven by travel demand and provided strong guidance for Q4 and the full year [5] - Intel reported strong earnings driven by AI chip demand, leading to a 3% stock gain for the week [5] - The blended EPS growth rate for the S&P 500 increased to 9.2%, up from 8.5% the previous week, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth [5] Job Market Trends - Initial jobless claims rose to approximately 227,000, indicating an upward trend in unemployment applications [6] - Major corporations announced workforce reductions, including Meta (600 layoffs), Rivian (over 600 layoffs), and Target (1,800 corporate jobs) [6] - GM laid off over 200 employees, while Amazon plans to replace over half a million jobs with robots in the next seven years [6][14] Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming week is expected to be significant for the Q3 earnings season, with major companies like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon reporting [7][8] - The "Magnificent 7" companies are anticipated to have a substantial impact on overall market growth, with expected YoY EPS growth of 14.9% compared to 6.7% for the rest of the S&P 500 [7] Conclusion - Despite mixed corporate earnings signals and layoff news, the market closed at record highs, driven by favorable inflation data [12] - The focus will shift back to corporate fundamentals as the "Magnificent 7" prepare to report, which will be crucial for sustaining market growth [12]

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is expected to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, with a consensus estimate of a loss per share of 72 cents and revenues of $1.46 billion, indicating a year-over-year revenue growth of 66.6% [1][2][8] Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for Rivian's loss has narrowed by a penny in the past 30 days, suggesting improved expectations [1] - In Q2 2025, Rivian reported an adjusted loss per share of 80 cents, which was wider than the consensus estimate of 65 cents but narrower than the loss of $1.21 from the previous year [2] - Rivian's net sales in Q2 2025 reached $1.3 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.26 billion, and reflecting a 12.5% increase year-over-year [2] Vehicle Deliveries and Revenue Growth - In Q3 2025, Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles, an increase from 10,018 units in the same quarter of 2024 [3] - The company's software and services revenues surged by 347% year-over-year to $376 million in Q2 2025, largely due to a joint venture with Volkswagen AG, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth in the coming years [3][4] Operating Expenses and Margins - Total operating expenses in Q2 2025 decreased to $908 million from $924 million in the same period last year, primarily due to reduced research and development expenses, a trend likely to continue in Q3 [4] Earnings Expectations - Rivian has a positive Earnings ESP of +10.44%, indicating a higher Most Accurate Estimate compared to the consensus, which increases the likelihood of an earnings beat [5][6] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a hold position [6]