Group 1 - Societe Generale SCF has filed its half-year financial report for the period ending June 30, 2025, with the French Financial Markets Authority on September 30, 2025 [1][2] - The financial report is available to the public free of charge and can be accessed on the Societe Generale group's website and the AMF's website [2] - Societe Generale SCF is a specialized credit institution established under French law, authorized to operate as a SCF since December 20, 2007 [3] Group 2 - Societe Generale is a leading European bank with approximately 119,000 employees serving over 26 million clients in 62 countries [4] - The bank has a long history of supporting economic development and offers a wide range of advisory and financial solutions [4] - Societe Generale is committed to sustainability and is included in major socially responsible investment indices, reflecting its dedication to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles [5]

Core Insights - Societe Generale's digital asset unit, SG-FORGE, has expanded its euro- and dollar-denominated stablecoins into decentralized finance (DeFi) by deploying them on Ethereum-based protocols Morpho and Uniswap [1][3][9] Group 1: DeFi Integration - The deployment allows EUR CoinVertible (EURCV) and USD CoinVertible (USDCV) to be used for borrowing, lending, and spot trading in a fully on-chain environment, marking a shift from SG-FORGE's previous focus on centralized platforms [3][6] - Users can now borrow or lend the bank-issued stablecoins against major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as tokenized money market funds regulated by the French Financial Markets Authority [4][5] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - SG-FORGE's stablecoins currently have a market cap of $66 million for EURCV and $32 million for USDCV, indicating a growing interest from institutional players in integrating real-world assets into permissionless finance [7] - Societe Generale is among the few global banks actively issuing and deploying its own stablecoins, exploring their potential role within DeFi ecosystems while maintaining connections to regulated assets [8][9]

Group 1: European Debt Market - Societe Generale indicates a significant downtrend in both realized and implied volatility in the European government bond market, creating favorable conditions for arbitrage trading [1] - The firm highlights French government bonds (OATs) as particularly attractive, alongside Spanish and Italian bonds, due to recent credit rating upgrades and anticipated improvements in ratings [1] Group 2: Indonesia Economic Outlook - Fitch's BMI notes that Indonesia's GDP growth may gradually slow over the next decade due to domestic political concerns and structural issues, despite the president's ambitious growth targets [2] - The report suggests that these measures may not be sufficient to elevate growth rates above the long-term average of 5.0% [2] Group 3: Japan's Trade and Investment - Capital Economics believes that if Japanese companies continue to serve U.S. clients through subsidiaries, the impact of U.S. trade policies on profits and investments will be limited [2] - Despite pressures from U.S. tariffs, Japan's direct foreign investment in the U.S. is expected to reach a record high this year, driven by strong U.S. economic performance [2] Group 4: Thai Baht and Monetary Policy - Citigroup anticipates that the Bank of Thailand may lower interest rates in October to curb the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht, which has risen nearly 6% this year [2] Group 5: UK Economic Concerns - Barclays analysts point out that the combination of a strong dollar and weakened domestic growth is suppressing the British pound, with policy uncertainty ahead of the November budget exacerbating the situation [3][4] - The unexpected rise in public borrowing and weak bond auctions are further damaging market sentiment towards the pound [4] Group 6: Eurozone Debt Supply - Barclays expects a slowdown in Eurozone government debt supply in October, forecasting total issuance of €116 billion, down from approximately €127 billion in September [4][5] - The report also notes that redemptions are expected to rise to €118 billion, indicating a shift in the debt market dynamics [5] Group 7: Singapore Manufacturing Sector - DBS Bank reports that Singapore's manufacturing sector is likely to continue experiencing volatility, with August output declining by 7.8% year-on-year, marking the largest drop since March 2024 [5] - The semiconductor cycle remains supported by structural developments in artificial intelligence, despite global economic uncertainties [5]

Core Insights - The Risk Asia Awards 2025 recognize excellence in various categories related to risk management and financial services across Asia [1][2][3] Group 1: Derivatives Awards - Derivatives house of the year for Asia is awarded to UBS [1] - Other notable winners include Daiwa Securities for Japan, Crédit Agricole CIB for Hong Kong and South Korea, and OCBC Bank for Singapore [1] - The award for derivatives house of the year in China goes to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, while CTBC Bank wins for Taiwan [1] Group 2: Specialized Awards - Standard Chartered is recognized as the interest rate derivatives house of the year [1] - BofA Securities wins the currency derivatives house of the year award [1] - UBS is awarded both equity and credit derivatives house of the year [1] Group 3: Technology and Risk Solutions - Murex is named technology vendor of the year and also wins for system support and implementation [2] - S&P Dow Jones Indices is recognized for quantitative investment solutions [2] - FactSet is awarded for risk solutions [2] Group 4: Compliance and Risk Management - The best AI solution for risk management is awarded to SAS Institute [2] - Wolters Kluwer receives multiple awards for various risk management solutions including IFRS 9 and credit risk management [2] - NICE Actimize is recognized for its AML solution of the year [2]

Core Insights - Bullish Europe has become the first crypto exchange to offer Societe Generale – FORGE's stablecoin, USD CoinVertible (USDCV), expanding access to regulated crypto assets [1][2] - The USDCV token is a fully compliant USD-pegged stablecoin backed 1:1 with cash or high-quality collateral, targeting institutional, corporate, and retail investors [3][5] - The partnership with Societe Generale positions Bullish as a leading venue for institutional-grade liquidity and compliant digital asset trading services [5][6] Company Developments - Bullish Europe has formed a strategic partnership with Societe Generale – FORGE, making it the first exchange to offer USDCV [2][5] - Marco Bodewein, CEO of Bullish Europe, emphasized the company's commitment to increasing the availability of regulated stablecoins for institutional investors [4][5] - BNY, a UK-based financial services firm, has been selected as the custodian for the stablecoins [6] Industry Context - The USDCV stablecoin was launched in June 2025, leveraging the growth of the stablecoin market and utilizing blockchain platforms Ethereum and Solana [5] - The positive sentiment in the stablecoin market is influenced by improved regulatory frameworks, such as GENIUS and Clarity Acts in the US [6] - Other market players are also exploring the use of fiat-pegged digital assets to reduce costs [6]

Core Insights - Societe Generale-FORGE has launched the USD CoinVertible (USDCV), the first U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin under the European Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) [1][3] - The partnership with Bullish Europe aims to enhance the availability of regulated stablecoins for various types of investors in Europe [2][5] Group 1 - USDCV is fully pegged to the U.S. dollar and designed to comply with MiCA, ensuring price stability and regulatory assurance for institutional investors [3][4] - The introduction of USDCV follows the earlier launch of the EUR CoinVertible (EURCV) by SG-FORGE and Bullish, expanding the range of compliant stablecoins [2][4] - The collaboration positions SG-FORGE and Bullish at the forefront of regulated stablecoin adoption, bridging traditional finance and blockchain markets [4][6] Group 2 - The launch reflects a growing institutional demand for regulated and transparent stablecoin products as Europe implements MiCA [7] - The partnership aims to combine Bullish's regulated trading infrastructure with SG-FORGE's financial innovation to provide institutional-grade liquidity and trust [8]

Core Viewpoint - A significant strategy known as "hedging against the US" is emerging in global capital markets, characterized by a massive influx of international funds into the US while simultaneously a potential trillion-dollar wave of shorting the dollar is brewing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major Wall Street banks, including State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas, predict that the ongoing hedging activities will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [2][8]. - Deutsche Bank noted that since mid-year, inflows into "dollar-hedged" US asset ETFs have surpassed those into "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating an unprecedented speed of this shift [2][8]. Group 2: Scale of Hedging - The potential scale of this hedging wave is estimated at approximately $1 trillion, which would restore the hedging ratio of global investors holding over $30 trillion in US stocks and bonds to the average level of the past decade [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Foreign investors currently hold about $20 trillion in US stocks and approximately $14 trillion in US bonds, with a noted decrease in their hedging ratios for fixed income and equities by about five and two percentage points, respectively, in recent years [11]. - A survey by Bank of America revealed that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to counter a weakening dollar, marking the highest level since June [13]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - One common hedging method employed by overseas investors is selling dollar forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, which typically translates into selling pressure on the dollar in the spot market [9]. - The current hedging ratio for foreign investors has stabilized around 56%, down from approximately 70% mid-year, indicating a strategic shift rather than a mass liquidation of US assets [11].

Group 1 - A significant strategy in global capital markets is emerging, termed "hedging the dollar," with international funds flowing into the US while a potential $1 trillion shorting wave against the dollar is developing [1][4] - Major banks like State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas predict that this hedging trend will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [1][4] - Deutsche Bank noted that since mid-2023, inflows into "dollar-hedged" US asset ETFs have surpassed "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating an unprecedented speed of this shift [1] Group 2 - The estimated scale of the hedging wave is around $1 trillion, which would restore the hedging ratio of global investors holding over $30 trillion in US stocks and bonds to the average level of the past decade [4] - The dollar's strength has been challenged, particularly after the Trump administration's tariff policies in April, which led to a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, contributing to the dollar's decline [6] - Analysts suggest that if the market speculates that the Federal Reserve is pressured by the White House to lower rates, the logical approach would be to favor US stocks and bonds while disfavoring the dollar [7] Group 3 - The most common hedging method among overseas investors is selling dollar forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, which translates into selling pressure on the dollar in the spot market [5] - As of April, the hedging ratio for foreign investors holding US assets stabilized around 56%, down from approximately 70% in mid-2023, indicating a significant shift in hedging behavior [8] - A recent survey by Bank of America revealed that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to address dollar weakness, marking the highest level since June [8]

Core Insights - Following Fitch's downgrade of France's credit rating, market attention is shifting towards Italy's rating decision, which is expected on Friday [1] - There is a possibility of an upgrade for Italy's rating, supported by improvements in the country's budget balance [1] - Currently, Fitch rates Italy at BBB with a positive outlook, indicating potential for an upgrade to BBB+ [1] - Economists from Citigroup also acknowledge the likelihood of an upgrade for Italy's rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while in line with market expectations, may exert downward pressure on gold prices in the short term, although long-term factors remain supportive for gold [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was anticipated by the market, but the overall tone was cautious, with a notable dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1]. - The Fed acknowledged a weakening labor market and indicated that inflationary pressures are still present, suggesting a mixed signal of hawkish and dovish sentiments [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, gold and silver prices experienced a pullback as investors took profits, reflecting a market adjustment to the new interest rate environment [2]. - The dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating volatility in response to the Fed's decision [1]. Group 3: Future Projections - Société Générale forecasts an average gold price of approximately $4,128 per ounce for next year, driven by ongoing inflation and a declining interest rate environment [3]. - Bank of America maintains that despite short-term overbought conditions for gold, the market will continue to receive strong support due to persistent concerns over global fiscal challenges and rising debt burdens [3]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - The transition into a looser monetary policy environment is expected to favor precious metals in the long run, despite short-term fluctuations [2]. - Continuous central bank purchases and a shift from dollar-denominated assets to diversified holdings are anticipated to sustain demand for gold [3].