Core Points - Societe Generale has decided to terminate its liquidity contract with Rothschild Martin Maurel effective July 1, 2025, due to satisfactory daily liquidity of its shares over the past years [1][2] - The liquidity contract was in place since 2011 and was temporarily suspended from February 10 to April 9, 2025, during a share buyback period [2][3] Transaction Summary - From January 1 to June 30, 2025, the liquidity account recorded a total of 6,265 purchase transactions and 6,753 sale transactions, with a total quantity of 1,986,439 shares purchased and sold [7] - The total amount exchanged during this period was approximately €80.29 million for purchases and €80.36 million for sales [7] - Specific daily transaction data shows fluctuations in the number of transactions and amounts, with notable transactions on various dates throughout January to June 2025 [3][6][7] Financial Overview - As of December 31, 2024, the liquidity account had a balance of approximately €5.43 million, reduced from €170 million at the signing of the liquidity account in 2011 [4] - The liquidity account was amended in December 2018, reducing resources to €5 million [4] Company Profile - Societe Generale is a leading European bank with around 119,000 employees serving over 26 million clients in 62 countries [8] - The bank has a long history of providing a wide array of financial solutions and is committed to sustainable value creation for stakeholders [8][9]

Group 1 - The US Treasury market has experienced significant volatility this year, driven by concerns over rising government deficits, tariff disputes, and changes in foreign buyer demand [1][3] - Investor panic has been primarily fueled by worries regarding Trump's tariff policies and the expanding US budget deficit, which may lead to higher inflation and sustained high interest rates [3][4] - The French bank Société Générale anticipates that the current turmoil in the US Treasury market is unlikely to end in the short term, with major developments expected to impact the market [1][4] Group 2 - Key developments to watch in the US Treasury market include a surge in new debt issuance as the government increases borrowing and the Federal Reserve continues quantitative tightening [4] - The demand for stablecoins, supported by short-term US Treasury bills, may boost demand for government bonds, with stablecoin issuers' asset management expected to grow significantly [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in investment strategies on Wall Street, favoring diversified asset risk management over concentrated bets on large tech stocks, resulting in strong performance for multi-asset strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Multi-Asset Strategy Performance - Societe Generale's multi-asset portfolio is experiencing its strongest first half since 2008, showcasing resilience even in the face of market uncertainties [2]. - The classic 60/40 stock-bond allocation strategy has shown relative elasticity during the pandemic era, while risk parity strategies have increased by approximately 6% [2]. - Investments in gold have been particularly successful, with portfolios focused on gold seeing gains exceeding 10% this year [2]. Group 2: Challenges for Traditional Concentrated Strategies - Traditional concentrated investment strategies have struggled amid tariffs, fiscal policies, inflation concerns, and geopolitical conflicts, with the S&P 500 index only rising 1.5% since January [3]. - Broader government bond indices have yielded only a 3% return this year, contrasting with the strong performance of diversified portfolios driven by previously overlooked assets [3]. - Developed market stocks outside the U.S. and Canada have risen 14% this year, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged 8%, and gold has increased nearly 30% [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Behavior - Investors are increasingly embracing asset diversification, with a notable shift in attitudes towards holding assets outside the U.S. [4]. - Recent data indicates that U.S. investors are beginning to accept diversification, as evidenced by significant inflows into ETFs covering a broader range of asset classes, including gold, Bitcoin, and foreign stocks [5]. - In June, stock ETFs attracted approximately $56 billion, surpassing the total inflows of the previous two months, indicating a strong interest in traditional asset classes despite the diversification trend [5].

金十数据6月17日讯，法兴银行预计日本央行6月可能会保持利率不变，且在近期超长期日本国债遭遇抛 售之际，日本央行将从明年4月开始放慢量化紧缩的步伐。日本的核心CPl可能在非新鲜食品和服务价格 上涨的推动下加速增长。 法兴银行：日本央行将按兵不动 并将从明年4月开始放慢量化紧缩步伐 ...

Core Viewpoint - European banks are shifting their stance towards collaboration with defense manufacturers, moving from a previous reluctance to a proactive engagement in financing defense projects, reflecting a broader trend of rearmament in response to geopolitical threats [1][2][3] Group 1: Shift in Banking Policies - Major European banks, including BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, and Societe Generale, are now emphasizing their partnerships with defense companies, marking a significant change from their previous focus on sustainability [1][3] - Deutsche Bank announced a €1 billion ($1.2 billion) financing initiative for defense-related enterprises, highlighting its commitment to enhancing European security [1] - ING's CEO indicated a fundamental shift in mindset regarding credit applications from defense industries, signaling a welcoming approach [2] Group 2: Government-Driven Initiatives - The rearmament plans in Europe are primarily government-led, necessitating strong relationships between banks and national governments [5] - The European Banking Federation has established a special task force to facilitate collaboration between banks and defense companies, indicating a coordinated effort to support the defense sector [5] - The European Commission is preparing proposals to address various challenges faced by the defense industry, including financing issues [5] Group 3: Financial Opportunities and Challenges - European banks are expected to benefit from the anticipated surge in defense spending, with significant investments planned for military equipment and infrastructure [3][6] - While large defense companies typically have access to financing, smaller firms often face challenges, creating opportunities for banks to provide support through guarantees and trade financing [6] - The asset management divisions of banks are also entering the defense sector, potentially introducing hundreds of billions of euros into defense projects [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The extent of profits that banks can derive from the expected defense boom remains uncertain, with many initiatives still in the planning stages [6] - The European defense sector is viewed as a high-quality business opportunity, with substantial funds anticipated to flow into it [7]

Group 1 - Societe Generale's subsidiary SG-FORGE plans to issue a publicly traded USD stablecoin, USD CoinVertible (USDCV), with trading expected to start in July [1][2] - SG-FORGE previously launched a euro stablecoin, EUR CoinVertible (EURCV), in 2023, but it has seen limited adoption, with a current circulating value of €41.8 million (approximately $47.62 million) [2][4] - The issuance of USDCV aims to meet the growing demand for regulated USD stablecoins and will support various customer activities, including crypto trading and cross-border payments [4][5] Group 2 - The USD stablecoin will be issued on Ethereum and Solana blockchains, allowing for 24/7 instant conversion between fiat and digital currencies [2][4] - BNY will act as the asset custodian for USDCV, enhancing the operational credibility of the stablecoin [2] - The launch of USDCV positions SG-FORGE to compete with existing stablecoins like USDC and USDT, as well as future bank-issued USD stablecoins [5][10] Group 3 - The global stablecoin market is seeing increased interest from various banks, including Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered, and major U.S. banks, which are exploring their own stablecoin initiatives [6][8] - Stablecoins are characterized by their pegging to stable assets, making them suitable for various financial functions, including payment methods and value measurement [6] - The competitive landscape for stablecoins is expected to diversify, with banks leveraging their existing infrastructure and customer bases to promote their stablecoin offerings [10]

Core Points - The total number of shares composing the current share capital as of 31 May 2025 is 800,316,777, with a total number of voting rights amounting to 887,657,909 [2][6] Company Overview - Societe Generale is a leading European bank with approximately 119,000 employees serving over 26 million clients in 62 countries [3] - The bank has been operational for 160 years, providing a wide range of advisory and financial solutions to corporate, institutional, and individual clients [3] - Societe Generale emphasizes sustainable value creation for all stakeholders through its long-lasting client relationships and innovative solutions [3] Business Segments - The Group operates three complementary business sets, integrating ESG offerings for all clients [4] - Societe Generale aims to be a key partner in environmental transition and sustainability, being included in major socially responsible investment indices [4] - The bank's business segments include French Retail, Private Banking and Insurance, Global Banking and Investor Solutions, and Mobility, International Retail Banking and Financial Services [7]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to remain stable against other major currencies in the near term, influenced by recent positive U.S. employment data [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, providing a boost to the dollar [1] - There is potential for the dollar to decline if investors reduce exposure to U.S. assets due to uncertainties in trade and budget policies [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - A clearer indication that tariffs are negatively impacting U.S. economic growth may be needed before the dollar weakens again [1] - Uncertainty in U.S. policies is likely to erode confidence in the dollar, leading to further declines [1]

Core Insights - Quantitative stock investment is expected to perform exceptionally well in 2025 after years of stagnation, driven by models based on factors and machine learning that have shown strong performance amid market volatility and political noise [1][6] Group 1: Strategy Recovery - Traditional long/short factor models and newer machine learning-based strategies are experiencing a revival, with the global bottom-up stock factor strategy rising over 9% this year, successfully navigating market volatility [2][3] - The top-down factor indices covering regions like Europe, the US, and Japan have also shown robust growth, particularly value and momentum strategies outside the US [2] Group 2: Regional and Strategy Performance - Europe has been the leading region for factor performance in 2025, with value strategies achieving the best relative and absolute returns, although valuation gaps have narrowed significantly [3] - Machine learning models from Société Générale have performed strongly, with a newly launched mean-reversion strategy yielding a return of 4.1%, outperforming basic reversal models [3] Group 3: Investment Themes and Strategy Outlook - Société Générale is optimistic about defensive stock income strategies, focusing on companies with strong balance sheets and high dividend yields, particularly in utilities, telecom, and energy sectors [4] - The US small-cap value strategy, excluding distressed stocks, has outperformed benchmark indices, emphasizing the importance of balance sheet strength as credit conditions tighten [4] - The "strong balance sheet" trade is supported as an alternative hedging strategy against high-yield credit risk, maintaining positive growth in 2025 [4] Group 4: Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - Despite the strong performance of European value strategies, a cautious outlook is held for the second half of 2025 due to rising market volatility and valuation spreads nearing historical norms [5] - The easy gains from European value stocks may be over, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and increasing earnings risks [5]

Playing the long game Key features of the outlook We forecast GDP growth of 4.6% and 4.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, assuming no change in the US tariff levels (up an additional 30% compared to the start of 2025) and modest stimulus. Over the coming months, export frontloading and the announced policy measures should remain supportive, but some weakening is bound to happen further ahead, when the exemption period on the reciprocal tariffs comes to an end, warranting more policy support. Given the tari ...