Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is at a critical juncture, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes being a core variable influencing market dynamics. The divergence between the Fed's hawkish stance and the market's dovish expectations is causing significant volatility across various asset classes [1][18]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "hawkish wait-and-see" position, which is the root cause of market volatility and asset repricing. The Fed's recent statements emphasize the need to maintain high interest rates until inflation stabilizes at the 2% target [2][4]. - In January 2026, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a pause in the rate-cutting cycle and removing language that suggested progress on inflation, which has led to a shift in market expectations [2][5]. - Market participants are betting on a rate cut in June 2026, with a probability of 68%, while the expectation for a March rate cut has dropped to 17.1%, indicating a significant shift in sentiment [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Volatility - The divergence between Fed policy and market expectations has led to dramatic fluctuations in global asset markets, particularly in the U.S. Treasury market, where the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.3% to 3.8%, marking a significant drop [7]. - The tech sector has experienced a sell-off, with the Nasdaq 100 index declining over 4% in three consecutive trading days, reflecting concerns over tightening liquidity and high valuations in the tech space [8][9]. - The S&P 500 index is approaching a critical support level at 4800 points, and a breach of this level could trigger further panic selling, indicating a potential spiral downwards [10]. Group 3: Asset Repricing Trends - The tightening liquidity environment is expected to accelerate the repricing of global assets, with a fundamental shift in asset allocation logic anticipated. The Fed's uncertain policy direction will be a key driver of this process [11]. - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to experience continued volatility, with yields likely to trend lower as the market anticipates a rate cut in June, potentially stabilizing around 3.6%-3.8% [11]. - The stock market is expected to see increased differentiation, with high-valuation tech stocks facing ongoing pressure while value stocks and defensive sectors may attract more investment [12]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Strategies - The A-share and H-share markets are showing valuation advantages, potentially becoming a safe haven for international funds amid declining global risk appetite [13]. - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities in oil and industrial commodities, which are expected to benefit from global economic recovery and geopolitical tensions [12][13]. - A balanced approach to U.S. equities is recommended, with a shift away from high-valuation tech stocks towards value stocks and defensive sectors to mitigate risk [14].

多位美联储官员近期释放明确信号，在通胀未稳步回落至2%目标水平前，维持当前利率仍是首要政策 选择。 即将于本月底卸任的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，今年美联储根本不应降息。他指出当前美国经济 表现强劲，劳动力市场趋于稳定，若此时降息，将大幅降低通胀回归目标的可能性。1月议息会议是博 斯蒂克任内最后一次参与的政策会议，他的多位同事也持相同立场，认为需优先巩固此前通胀降温成 果。 今年1月，美联储以10比2的投票结果决定维持基准利率在3.50%－3.75%区间不变，仅两名委员会成员 支持进一步降息。此前美联储已在2025年连续三次下调短期借贷成本，累计降息75个基点。 美国总统特朗普近期提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任下任美联储主席，他直言若沃什曾表达加息意 愿，沃什绝无可能获得提名，并坚信利率很快会下调。不过美联储利率政策由联邦公开市场委员会集体 决策，当前内部多数官员对进一步宽松持谨慎态度，即便沃什成功就任，推动降息仍需获得足够多的委 员支持。 美国劳工统计局数据显示，该国去年12月生产者价格指数环比上涨0.5%，创五个月来最大涨幅，核心 PPI同比上涨3.3%，高于市场预期。叠加进口关税成本正逐步向消费端传导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump signals a clear shift towards a hawkish monetary policy, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, pausing rate cuts for several meetings and adhering to a data-driven decision-making framework [1] - Warsh's past tenure emphasizes inflation control and monetary policy independence, contrasting with the dovish stance of some current Fed members [2] - If confirmed, Warsh is likely to refocus the Fed on dual objectives of inflation and employment, potentially accelerating balance sheet reduction and delaying rate cuts until mid-2026 [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The hawkish expectations have strengthened the US dollar, which has regained key resistance levels, while commodity and emerging market currencies face depreciation pressures [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields have risen, reflecting market concerns over persistent inflation and tightening policies, although the yield curve inversion has eased somewhat [3] - Commodity markets show divergence, with gold prices weakening under the dual pressure of a strong dollar and rising real interest rates, while oil prices are influenced by geopolitical risks and demand concerns [3] Group 3: Capital Flows and Global Impact - Global capital is flowing back to the US market, increasing pressure on emerging markets facing capital outflows and potential debt default risks due to currency depreciation [4] - The current market environment is characterized by high volatility and strong differentiation among asset classes, with investor risk appetite shrinking [4] - The future direction of Fed policy will depend on key variables, including core inflation trends, US economic data performance, the Senate confirmation process for Warsh, and liquidity constraints from balance sheet reduction [4] Group 4: Outlook - Until the Fed's policy framework is fully clarified, markets will continue to navigate the dynamics of balance sheet reduction and rate cut expectations, with a strong dollar likely to persist [5] - Investors should monitor Fed policy developments and US economic data closely to mitigate risks associated with emerging market currencies and debt, while seizing opportunities in dollar and safe-haven assets [5] - Central banks worldwide need to prepare for policy adjustments to address challenges from capital flows and currency volatility, ensuring financial stability [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wedbush indicates that the U.S. stock market may face a period of volatility in the coming months as investors prepare for potential policy reforms under Kevin Warsh's leadership at the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Wedbush analysts expect market volatility to persist until Warsh officially takes office in May, as investors reassess their positions in light of a significant policy shift away from the framework established during Jerome Powell's tenure [1][2]. - The transition period is anticipated to be bumpy, with Wedbush suggesting that the downside risk in the stock market outweighs the upside risk as investors shift focus to companies with sustainable growth [2]. Group 2: Policy Changes - Under Warsh, the Federal Reserve is expected to shift its focus from interest rates to the size of the central bank's balance sheet, utilizing monetary supply as the primary tool against inflation through quantitative tightening [1][2]. - This change is seen as the end of the "Fed put," which refers to the market's assumption that the central bank would intervene to support asset prices in non-crisis situations [1]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Views - Warsh, nominated by Trump, has a history of skepticism towards large-scale asset purchases and previously resigned from the Fed in 2011 due to his opposition to the second round of quantitative easing [2][4]. - His nomination signifies a potential ideological shift in U.S. monetary policy, emphasizing inflation control and policy independence, contrasting with Powell's consensus-driven approach [5]. Group 4: Market Implications - Warsh's hawkish stance and support for balance sheet reduction may negatively impact risk assets reliant on excess liquidity while benefiting U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, putting pressure on gold and silver [1][4]. - Analysts believe that while Warsh may implement 2-3 rate cuts this year to align with government expectations, he will also prioritize inflation control, indicating a more stringent approach compared to Powell [5].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump signifies a potential ideological shift in U.S. monetary policy, which could have profound implications for consumers, financial markets, and the global economy [1][2]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Experience - Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, has a robust background in both Wall Street and government, having been involved in critical economic policy decisions during the 2008 financial crisis [1]. - His educational credentials include a degree from Stanford University and a law degree from Harvard, along with experience at Morgan Stanley and as a special assistant for economic policy at the White House [1]. Group 2: Policy Implications of Warsh's Nomination - Trump's nomination aims to push for significant interest rate cuts to alleviate the burden of over $37 trillion in national debt and stimulate the sluggish housing market [2]. - Warsh's approach is expected to shift from Powell's pragmatic consensus-driven policy to one that emphasizes inflation control and policy independence, potentially leading to a lower tolerance for inflation [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that Warsh's reputation as a hawk may help him build consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), potentially leading to 2-3 interest rate cuts this year [3]. - Following Warsh's nomination, market expectations have shifted, with futures traders now anticipating two interest rate cuts this year, compared to previous forecasts of only one cut in 2026 and another in 2027 [3]. Group 4: Impact on Consumers and Financial Products - If Warsh successfully implements rate cuts, consumer financial products such as credit cards and personal loans may see lower interest rates, easing debt repayment pressures for households [4]. - However, lower interest rates could also lead to reduced savings rates, impacting families reliant on deposit income [4]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead for Warsh - Warsh faces challenges in achieving consensus within the FOMC, as several voting members have expressed opposition to further rate cuts until inflation approaches the 2% target [4]. - The balance between Trump's desire for aggressive rate cuts and the need for inflation control will be critical in shaping future monetary policy [5].

执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 海外市场点评 美联储："新主席"的政策轨迹 glmszqdatemark 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 加之沃什兼具美联储核心岗位的履职经验，且对市场运行逻辑有着深度理解，综 合适配性显著优于其他候选人，这也成为其在后续提名中可能脱颖而出的核心优 势。 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [Table_Author] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 随着特朗普对美联储主席提名进入倒计时，市场预期凯文・沃什当选几乎"稳操 胜券"。据市场预测数据，沃什获特朗普提名出任下任美联储主席的概率已突破 90%，稳坐热门人选头把交椅，市场更是提前开启对其潜在任职的定价行情。如 若成功提名，沃什的政策取向与行事风格，将成为左右后续金融市场走势的核心 变量。那么，为何沃什能在市场预期中脱颖而出？倘若当选，其货 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 945.11 yuan per gram, with a 1.20% increase, reaching a high of 946.15 yuan and a low of 933.39 yuan [1] - The short-term outlook for paper gold is bullish [1] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December will heavily depend on Chairman Powell's personal decisions [2] - Powell has the flexibility to either push for a rate cut or signal that the current cycle is ending after a potential cut, balancing economic support and inflation control [2] - The decision-making power regarding interest rates is more concentrated in Powell's hands than in the past, with the market closely watching for a possible "one-time rate cut" strategy [2] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for paper gold are identified between 950 yuan and 980 yuan per gram, while important support levels are between 930 yuan and 950 yuan per gram [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing is considered overly optimistic despite Chairman Powell's indication that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The recent two rate cuts were preemptive measures in anticipation of a deteriorating labor market, but further rate cuts may now be limited [1] - The economy is described as being in a relatively strong state, while inflation expectations remain sticky [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to monitor the labor market, but inflation has consistently exceeded target levels since March 2021 [1] - Decision-makers may aim to simultaneously manage inflation control while preventing economic downturns, indicating a challenging balance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has successfully achieved an economic "soft landing" by controlling inflation at 2% while maintaining economic resilience [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - ECB's credibility is crucial for maintaining long-term inflation expectations close to 2%, even during periods of significant inflation increases [1] - Current consumer price inflation and borrowing costs are satisfactory to ECB officials, who are not inclined to adjust monetary policy unless there are major economic shocks [1] Group 2: Investment and Growth - Interest rate cuts and inflation control have created a favorable environment for investment, sustainable growth, and financial stability [1] - The global economic transformation presents an opportunity for Europe to enhance the euro's status as a reserve currency [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Achieving the goal of increasing demand for European securities requires multiple initiatives, including completing the banking union, establishing a fully operational capital markets union, removing significant trade barriers within the EU, and increasing investments in technology, defense, and green growth [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation rate for June reached the European Central Bank's target of 2%, providing a strong basis for pausing the interest rate cuts that have been ongoing for a year [1] - The consumer price index increased by 2% year-on-year, slightly up from 1.9% in May, aligning with market expectations [1] - Core inflation remained at 2.3%, while the service sector inflation rose to 3.3% [1] Group 2 - The strengthening of the euro and declining energy costs are effectively suppressing upward price pressures, while the overall economic weakness in the Eurozone is also a constraining factor [3] - Germany's inflation unexpectedly slowed, while France and Spain saw slight increases, and Italy remained stable [3] - The ECB's chief economist indicated that despite uncertainties from trade policies and geopolitical events, the inflation control process is nearing completion [3] Group 3 - The ECB is expected to pause its interest rate cuts during the upcoming policy meeting, having already reduced the deposit rate to 2% over eight occasions since June 2024 [4] - Policymakers anticipate clearer policy insights from the September meeting, with new quarterly economic forecasts to reveal the actual impact of trade tariffs [7] - The ECB's vice president expressed confidence in achieving price stability, despite potential geopolitical risks and the possibility of inflation remaining below target being low [7]