Core Viewpoint - Jyske Bank has disclosed that Société Générale S.A. holds 5.22% of its total share capital through indirect ownership of 3,208,942 shares as of January 15, 2026 [1]. Group 1 - Société Générale S.A. holds 3,208,942 shares of Jyske Bank A/S, which corresponds to a nominal value of DKK 10 per share [1]. - The shareholding represents 5.22% of Jyske Bank's total share capital [1]. - The notification is in accordance with section 30 of the Danish Capital Markets Act [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen above 159, reaching its highest level since July 2024, influenced by speculation of early elections in Japan, which may strengthen the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's position and clear the way for further fiscal stimulus policies, negatively impacting the yen and Japanese government bonds [1] - Japan's 5-year government bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.615%, marking the highest level since the issuance of this maturity bond in 2000, with similar increases observed in 2-year and 10-year bond yields [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming 5-year government bond auction, which will test market demand amid rising expectations for fiscal expansion and increasing supply-demand risks [1] Group 2 - Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon, indicated that the risks for the USD/JPY exchange rate are "severely skewed to the downside," suggesting that timely intervention could trigger a significant correction [3] - Market experts view the 160 level as a potential intervention threshold, with Japanese officials emphasizing their focus on excessive volatility rather than specific exchange rate levels [4] - Any intervention actions will be authorized by the Japanese Ministry of Finance and executed by the Bank of Japan, with previous interventions occurring when the USD/JPY approached 160.17 [5] Group 3 - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's pro-reflation policies may hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates in the short term, which has been a factor suppressing the yen since her appointment in October 2022 [6] - Despite the ruling party's majority in the more powerful House of Representatives, concerns over debt sustainability suggest that aggressive fiscal expansion is unlikely, supporting a "buy on dips" strategy for Japanese government bonds and the yen [6] - The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates that while speculative net short positions have decreased recently, they remain at high levels, indicating a risk of short covering for the yen [6] Group 4 - Citigroup's yen pain index, which tracks overall trader positions, remains in negative territory, highlighting that the current short positions on the yen are crowded [7]

Group 1 - Jefferies raised the target price for Société Générale from €70 per share to €96 per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of long-term government bonds in the Eurozone is expected to decline this year, with a shift in issuance strategy creating opportunities, particularly in Germany and Italy [1] Group 1: Issuance Trends - The weighted average maturity of newly issued bonds has shortened over the past two years, a trend expected to continue due to high financing costs, a steep yield curve, and weakened demand for long-term bonds [1] - Germany is set to reduce the issuance of 30-year bonds, with Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Finland likely to follow suit [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The 15-20 year bond segment is anticipated to become more active as a result of the changes in issuance strategy [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Employment Data - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy in January, with two rate cuts anticipated in the remainder of 2026 due to initial signs of labor market stability [1] - JPMorgan has removed its forecast for a rate cut in 2026, now predicting a 25 basis point increase in Q3 2027 [1] - Societe Generale believes the decline in unemployment and rising wages provide a stronger rationale for the Fed to hold rates steady in January [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks - Goldman Sachs indicates that despite ongoing geopolitical risks, oil prices may continue to decline due to ample supply, predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 per barrel respectively in 2026 [2] Group 3: Chinese Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts a "mild re-inflation" in China in 2026, driven by a slight increase in PPI and CPI, with core CPI expected to rise due to various factors including food prices and service costs [3] - CITIC Securities also notes that the balance between external and internal demand will be crucial for the A-share market, with a higher probability of upward movement in early 2026 [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - CITIC Jinpu predicts that copper prices will continue to rise, with the market not yet at an end, and expects significant support for copper prices despite short-term corrections [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that investment in the power grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan period may reach 3.8 trillion yuan, focusing on high-quality development and stability in the energy sector [6] Group 5: Currency and Market Dynamics - Huatai Securities expects the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts occurring after the new Fed chair takes office [7] - Huachuang Securities highlights the commercialization of brain-computer interfaces, indicating a growing market with significant potential for expansion beyond the medical field [8] - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts that the RMB will appreciate by 2-3% annually over the next few years, with a total appreciation of over 30% in the next decade, benefiting the stock market [10]

Group 1 - As of 31 December 2025, the total number of shares composing the current share capital is 766,894,786, and the total number of voting rights is 852,557,365 [2][6] - Societe Generale is a leading European bank with approximately 119,000 employees serving over 26 million clients in 62 countries [3][4] - The company has a strong commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles, aiming to be a leading partner in sustainability and included in major socially responsible investment indices [4][7] Group 2 - Societe Generale operates three complementary business segments: French Retail, Private Banking and Insurance; Global Banking and Investor Solutions; and Mobility, International Retail Banking and Financial Services [7] - The bank provides a wide array of advisory and financial solutions, emphasizing sustainable value creation for all stakeholders [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The current focus is on the unemployment rate as job growth has been slowing down, which strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in January due to the decline in unemployment and rising wages [1] Group 1 - The employment growth rate is slowing down, leading to increased attention on the unemployment rate [1] - The decrease in the unemployment rate and wage increases provide a stronger justification for the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady [1] - The bond market has reacted relatively calmly to this significant data indicator, suggesting that no news may be beneficial for risk assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Société Générale has been leading the best-performing sector in Europe over the past year, with analysts indicating that the rally is not over yet [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Société Générale's focus on investment banking positions it to benefit from the EU's "Savings and Investment Union" initiative [1] - The stock price of Société Générale has surged by 159% over the past 12 months, outperforming all other members of the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, which increased by 67% during the same period [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Analyst James Invine from Rothschild's Redburn has given Société Générale an initial "buy" rating and set the highest target price among all brokers tracked by Bloomberg [1]

Market Performance - France's equity benchmark CAC 40 opened flat but drifted lower, down 49.25 points or 0.6% at 8,162.25 before noon [1] - Notable declines were seen in Legrand and Dassault Systemes, which fell 3.7% and 3.6% respectively, while Capgemini and Saint Gobain lost over 3% [1] Company Movements - BNP Paribas, Hermes International, Schneider Electric, Publicis Groupe, LVMH, Air Liquide, Accor, and Societe Generale experienced losses ranging from 1% to 1.6% [2] - In contrast, Orange and STMicroElectronics gained 2.6% and 2.5% respectively, with Michelin up 1.5% and Thales and Engie gaining 1.2% and 1.1% respectively [2] Economic Indicators - France's inflation eased to a seven-month low in December, attributed to a significant drop in energy prices [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) showed an annual increase of 0.8%, the slowest since May, following a 0.9% rise in November [3] - EU harmonized inflation also unexpectedly slowed to 0.7% in December from 0.8% in November, contrary to forecasts [3] PMI Data - The HCOB France Composite PMI for December was revised to 50.0, indicating stagnant output, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.7 and the Services PMI at 50.1 [4] - The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI for December was revised to 51.5, down from a flash estimate of 51.9 and November's 30-month high of 52.8 [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the silver market, particularly the potential for a bubble and the impact of regulatory changes in China on silver exports [1][2][5][6][16][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Silver Price Surge**: Silver prices have surged nearly 150% in 2025, attributed to fundamental factors, despite warnings of extreme market volatility due to low liquidity during holiday trading periods [2][5]. - **Market Volatility**: A significant drop in silver prices occurred due to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raising margin requirements from $22,000 to $25,000 per ounce, leading to position adjustments [2][5]. - **Bubble Analysis**: UBS's commodity research team suggests that while models indicate a potential bubble, they also caution against definitive conclusions. The analysis emphasizes the importance of using logarithmic scales to assess price trends accurately [5][6][8][9][10][14]. - **LPPLS Model**: The Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model indicates that the current silver market may exhibit bubble characteristics, but the analysis stresses that this model should not be solely relied upon for predictions [9][10][14]. Regulatory Changes and Market Impact - **China's Export Restrictions**: Starting January 1, 2026, China will implement strict licensing for silver exports, significantly impacting global supply as China accounts for 60% to 70% of refined silver production. This could lead to a potential 30% reduction in silver exports from China [16][17]. - **Global Supply Shortage**: The anticipated restrictions come amid a global silver shortage, with demand projected to exceed 1.24 billion ounces in 2025, exacerbating supply constraints [17]. - **US Trade Policy**: The US Department of Commerce is expected to release findings related to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which could lead to tariffs on silver imports if deemed a national security threat. This could further tighten supply in the market [18][19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a prevailing sentiment that extreme price fluctuations are likely to be followed by healthy corrections, indicating potential instability in the market [14]. - **Liquidity Concerns**: The silver market's lower liquidity compared to gold makes it more susceptible to detecting bubbles, as liquidity issues can amplify market volatility [12][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the silver market, its current dynamics, and the implications of regulatory changes.